Thailand always manages, with the hits being taken by those least able to afford it. Tourism is a double edged sword, but a downturn in agriculture (drought, disease, etc) at the same time would cause real problems. Manufacturing is fickle, and much of it is tied to globalism.  Increasing automation might remove one of the region’s competitive factors in manufacturing

 

From the tourism side though, the hotel industry is going to be hit much harder than the AirBnB side; you will get people but the economic value is limited. (Buying an imported watch or bag at a high-end retail store does almost nothing for the economy.)  Things change though, and Thailand has a pretty good history of flowing through change. 

The crash of 2008 due to sub prime crisis barely caused a ripple in Thailand

The Thai economy will be fine in the medium term. The Bank of Thailand has done a good job and there is very little risk of another run on the Thai baht like in 1997. That said things are slowing down both in real estate and on the export side of things. You are already seeing some real bargains on real estate and I think there is a lot more to come as the market was overbuilt and a lot of Thai are over extended with their banks. Not to mention tourism slowing down.


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3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

the Chinese spend the most of all tourists in Thailand. It is a myth that they don't spend money.

You may be right, I am only going by what I read here on Thai Visa. What about the Indians? ????

18 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

On 8/25/2019 at 11:46 AM, possum1931 said:

The tourist numbers going up as far as I know, will be with the Indians and Chinese, and they are not big spenders.

the Chinese spend the most of all tourists in Thailand. It is a myth that they don't spend money.

Yes...
 

Quote

The average spend per day for a Chinese tourist in Thailand is US$192 – which is 53% more than the average Europeans US$125 daily spend.

Source: "Why the Chinese are infinitely more important than the European Tourist to Thailand"

On 8/25/2019 at 11:12 AM, akampa said:

Just because you have to bring in 20,000 Baht does not mean you have to spend it, most people buy flights and hotels before arriving, so adding to foreign  reserves not so much.

But when I and my friends used to fly in on holiday, 3 times a year we rarely spent less than a 1000 pounds a week.

7 hours ago, khunPer said:

Yes...
 

Source: "Why the Chinese are infinitely more important than the European Tourist to Thailand"

These raw numbers don't take into account volatility. 

 

In case of significant issue (virus, conflict, economic downturn, or else) the Chinese are the first to disappear, and the last to come back. 

 

While many farangs are literally addicted to Thailand, and would come back just a few weeks after a nuclear accident (way to speak), or even wouldn't leave, the Chinese would all run away at the mere mention of a bird virus in some remote province in the South. 

 

Sometime, it may be better to have a medium and stable income, rather than a high and very unpredictable income (a bit like chosing between Toyota and Tesla shares). 

 

Impossible to say because one day some experts or ministries claim economy is growing , exports are up, tourism is up, lots of tax collected and the next day totally opposite from someone else.

 

one day government has left over money from last year, next day government looking for borrow money

 

From personal observations all I see is misery, empty shop fronts and up for sale signs .