1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

locals are already suffering but the pain will increase.... saw a small business guy bought brand new toyota truck, this morning saw him ridding the motorbike, asked about the new truck, he said returned to dealer, can't pay credit, shop not making money, no farangs

@isaansailor why is my post SAD about reporting the bad luck of a guy not being able to make car payments due to lack of business mainly based on foreign tourists, posting about the day to day reality is Sad ???

For years I read TV and comments—but refrained from commenting.  But when USD dipped below 31 on the Baht in late June—I jumped onboard.

It seems so obvious why the Baht rises.  Bank of Thailand holds bond sales. Thai interest rates seem comparatively high.  BoT has record USD reserves.  China holds long term US Treasuries, which come due each week. Thailand has signed many bi-lateral trade deals with China.

When you connect the dots, we have Chinese hot money inflows pouring into the bond offerings.  This drives Baht up, and increases USD reserves.

BoT needs to cool off on the hot money, and lower interest rates.

That’s my story—and I’m sticking to it...

11 hours ago, NightSky said:

All I know is that my morning corn flakes and milk are now very expensive compared to a few years ago when I convert the cost to pounds sterling.

 

Any improvement on exchange rates is VERY welcome..

 

I like corn flakes.

I too liked Kellogg’s Corn Flakes in the morning—but switched to Tesco Muesli in 1 kg bags.  It costs less—‘cause it’s imported from the UK, with its weakened currency... 

On 9/4/2019 at 2:54 PM, webfact said:

Committee calls for action against strong baht to improve economic performance

Only when it really hits the Thai pockets will they do something about it..

The Bank of Thailand really has their hands tied on this one, due to the huge amount of private Household, and SME Debt.

11 hours ago, fforest1 said:

Quit smoking?.......Thats just horrible.....I hope Soi 6 is not on the chopping block.....

it goes from nigh impossible to completely impossible to stop sigs if i drink any beer

11 hours ago, fforest1 said:

75 to the pound next week baby.....

I wish... I wish

Very simple solution - Bank of Thailand (BOT) remove all rules, regulations, requirements on outbound currency transfers!

 

Allow market forces to determine the true value of the baht. Watch it plunge to a reasonable value.

 

19 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

The Bank of Thailand really has their hands tied on this one, due to the huge amount of private Household, and SME Debt.

But the solution to many problems should be easy then, right? 

 

To counter high debt, I guess one needs to make lending more difficult and increase inflation, which can be done by printing money.

 

Inflation will also boost exports, as the value of the Baht would lower compared to other currencies. It should also boost tourism, as holidays to Thailand become a bit cheaper.

 

Of course, it would also mean that local products could increase in price, but in order to counter that, the (minimum) wages need to increase to at the very least cover the level of inflation. 

3 minutes ago, wolf81 said:

But the solution to many problems should be easy then, right? 

 

To counter high debt, I guess one needs to make lending more difficult and increase inflation, which can be done by printing money.

 

Inflation will also boost exports, as the value of the Baht would lower compared to other currencies. It should also boost tourism, as holidays to Thailand become a bit cheaper.

 

Of course, it would also mean that local products could increase in price, but in order to counter that, the (minimum) wages need to increase to at the very least cover the level of inflation. 

you have great ideas but the problem with Thailand there are too many IF's

Biggest mistake Thailand ever made was to manipulate their currency. Now they pay the price in more ways than one. Vietnam and Cambodia are profiting enormously by increased exports, and tourism which is booming. One clients/tourists commit themselves to these countries, there is no going back to Thailand.

THE fair value of the thai baht should be between 45 and 60 baht to USD.

It will get there within the next 2-3 years.

This prolonged strength of the baht will force buyers of Thai exports to seek alternatives. Once located, contracts signed, haacp sorted, logistics managed, banking secured there are never returning. The only thing that will make them return is a lower priced good or commodity - which is the precise reason they left.

 

There is absolutely no shortage of third world sh1tholes to manufacture <deleted>.

 

The only money that is interested in always returning is the cheap charlie retiree who already can't put a paltry 800k in the bank as well as additional assorted miscreant sex tourists and criminals as well as Chinese organized and informal money launderers and online criminals.

 

Thailand had it's chance to become a Singapore. The oligarchs and controlling families have opted for the Philippines.

On 9/5/2019 at 8:15 PM, Banana7 said:

Very simple solution - Bank of Thailand (BOT) remove all rules, regulations, requirements on outbound currency transfers!

 

Allow market forces to determine the true value of the baht. Watch it plunge to a reasonable value.

 

Can you link to outbound Thai currency controls? Thanks.

On 9/5/2019 at 6:41 PM, batata said:

On 9/5/2019 at 6:55 AM, fforest1 said:

75 to the pound next week baby.....

I wish... I wish

Upon a star...

On 9/4/2019 at 11:04 PM, john ianson said:

But nobody wants to buy your  stuff !

Agreed.  Which is why once the world wakes up the USA is screwed.  

On 9/6/2019 at 2:42 AM, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

THE fair value of the thai baht should be between 45 and 60 baht to USD.

It will get there within the next 2-3 years.

Fair value of the baht is about 15 baht to the dollar.  It will get there in the next few years. 

On 9/4/2019 at 1:27 AM, mikebell said:

Simple; a strong baht means I have less to spend when I transfer in weak pounds, so I can't spend as I used to do.  Multiply this by the number of ex-pats/their tourist friends & family = lots of local businesses are going to suffer.

Been pretty much downhill since 2004, my first trip 44 Baht to 1 USD.  Brits got punished a bit more than just a strong Baht as the Brexit issue hurt the pound additionally.  Thai price lady "price same same"!  Yes some prices there have not changed much. Foot and oil massages no measurable increase.  Many off season hotel prices recently when I ws there were a bit higher than in the past but not hugely so.  Still, over all buying power much less.

On 9/6/2019 at 5:06 PM, Number 6 said:

This prolonged strength of the baht will force buyers of Thai exports to seek alternatives. Once located, contracts signed, haacp sorted, logistics managed, banking secured there are never returning. The only thing that will make them return is a lower priced good or commodity - which is the precise reason they left.

 

There is absolutely no shortage of third world sh1tholes to manufacture <deleted>.

 

The only money that is interested in always returning is the cheap charlie retiree who already can't put a paltry 800k in the bank as well as additional assorted miscreant sex tourists and criminals as well as Chinese organized and informal money launderers and online criminals.

 

Thailand had it's chance to become a Singapore. The oligarchs and controlling families have opted for the Philippines.

Not really related to currency prices, but as you mention alternative buyers and sellers.  I remember after the coalition forces kicked Saddam out of Kuwait and levied lots of sanctions and trade and buying restrictions on Iraq.  I recall Iraq changed its principal supplier of wheat to Australia. It changed its principal importer of rice to Vietnam.  Things like I found interesting. 

 

    My grandfather was a really old school hard working immigrant from Greece to the USA circa 1902.  As straight up a guy as you will know. Frank but helpful.  He built up a bakery, a bottling company a few restaurants etc.  he was kind of like a greek "godfather" in Rhode Island.  Not in a criminal mafia type of godfather, but if you needed advice, had a problem, a little financial help, people sought his council.  Just a cool all around Mensch!  Anyway, he always said to my Uncle to which he gave one of his restaurants to because he married my Aunt, his daughter,  "Never give a customer a reason to go try some place else. They may not come back".  When he passed, I was 15.  They shut down the freeway I-95, governor led the procession, etc.

 

Today as I run into restaurant managers that are dorks, casino managers that think they are gods, etc.  It just makes me sick that they just don't understand nor care that people will leave, may not come back, may pass the word around to others to avoid the place, etc.  I vote with my feet and yelp.

30.4 to one usd today...If it hits 27 to one., I can no longer do 65,000 a month without going into reserves.

Sucks!