Thailand's surging baht shatters expat dreams of easy retirement

[Magenta408]

Flip side of the coin, perhaps it is the retiree's currency which is bogged or falling. It may not necessarily be only the strength of the Baht. For example, pensions not geared to inflation. 

[Angry Dragon]

1 hour ago, MadMuhammad said:

 

Now I’m definitely not a statistician nor very good with charts but to me it’s the GBP to THB looks to have a fair value between 40-50thb?

 

If exchange rates tend to return to a mean value over time, then you might be on to something.  Unfortunately that doesn't always happen.  Look at the USD/GBP as an example - it has gone from over 4.4 GBP to the USD to close to parity now.  A long, gradual weakening trend since Bretton Woods.

[emptypockets]

4 hours ago, Huayrat said:

Who plans a loss of 30% of their pension? 

Who was silly enough to consider moving to a South East Asian country with only a pension to support them?

[FarangDoingHisThing69]

Looks like my advice to hold 1m Baht Incase the exchange rate goes zany was spot on. The Baht is not controlled by markets. Its determined by those inner circles. If 1 baht = .1$ then there will be lots of mega rich oligarchs in Thailand.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[Bangkok Barry]

The Baht/Pound situation could work in our favour, should we decide to leave (which I'm not doing). My house cost me 600,000. about 8000 sterling back then. I spent double that on modernising it, and now it's worth about 90,000 sterling if we sold it.

[adammike]

4 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Show me anyone who anticipated it would fall to 37 and I'll call them a liar. Are you one of them? If so, maybe you should gamble in stocks if you're so good spotting trends.

Those high rates were during the Asian currency crisis it's not rocket science to know they were not going to last.The few who sold up and put their pounds/Dollars/Marks/Franc's when you got 90 to the pound may have done well out of it but as it was 20 years ago I hope they had a fabulous time.

[Bangkok Barry]

2 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Who was silly enough to consider moving to a South East Asian country with only a pension to support them?

 

Strange question. Those who could buy far more for their money back then than they could in their own country. Read some of the above posts.

[MadMuhammad]

11 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Show me anyone who anticipated it would fall to 37 and I'll call them a liar. Are you one of them? If so, maybe you should gamble in stocks if you're so good spotting trends.

The GDP currency chart tells me plan for 45. It’s down 12%. Information available for everyone 

[Tropposurfer]

As for some expats being fools and not planning. If a person suffers from an illness like chronic depression and hardship making a decent living maybe bad marriage and financial ruin through the divorce courts or something else that prohibits them from working and cuts into their earning capacity and sees them poor and coming to Thailand to have more sense of dignity and at least a hope of some freedom because of exchange rates and lower cost of living please try to refrain from insulting those who genuinely have have perhaps struggled tried their best and not made a decent egg for themselves. As for the folks who come here live too large then bemoan bad budgeting then yeah they might be categorised as silly billies.

 

[Rod the Sod]

2 hours ago, acenase said:

Coming from an American. I think Thailand is very cheap, but that's because the USD to Baht was never SUPER high like how the Pound was.  I think just 6 years ago the exchange rate was around 28 or so? Then it SPIKED up to 36, and now it is somewhere in the middle, 30-31. So for an American it's still cheap.

 

But I completely understand how for British people, they could be completely turned off since they were used to having 60, and now that its down to 38, that's like almost HALF. So everything is doubling in price for you guys.

No it is down 36.66%. Maths not your strong point eh??

[malibukid]

still 1400IDR to the USD on Bali

Edited October 4, 2019 by malibukid

[Angry Dragon]

32 minutes ago, RobbyXNorway said:

 

Isnt it "all about me" for all of us? Really? Blow more smoke up our ass...

 

Every expat living in Thailand has seen their currency drop towards THB the last few years. The difference for all of us is where our "red line" in financials is. And keeping in mind the 65000 THB pr month requirement that means that more and more expats drop below that red line as the THB continues to rise.

 

expats should apply for PR before retirement (assuming they are working here pre-retirement) or apply when they move here (if they are under 60).  there are alternatives to relying on a one-year retirement visa.

[globalspark]

I wrote a small article on this very subject some months ago. Retirees  may not be leaving  the land of smiles but they are certainly hurting as their pensions have lost 30-50% ground.

 As i stated in my last article  now  they do not go to bars often rather sit at home  or on the beach drinking take aways from the local 7/11 or wherever. My friends living their  tell me the may go to a bar once a week  and I believe that as every time I come  to Thailand i need to make arrangements to met them   at some bar.

   Every day items  are increasing in costs and what I noticed on my last trip was that  street food is  about the same price but portions  about half.  My Dentist  costs have gone from 25% Australian cost to now  50%. so a implant in Australia is around $5000 and  in Thailand now  $2500.

 Hotels in  Thailand are   about the same as 10 years  but once  again the  stronger  baht  is  pushing up the prices. 

 People  tend to come to Thailand  to retire   when they are just to young and their plans soon go bear shape as happened  with the strong baht.  I wrote in my last article it is cheaper for me to live in Australia and come for holidays.  If you come to retire you must be able to buy a  condo in thailand or have the funds  aside invested to pay the rent and your pension for pay money.

[Dogmatix]

The pound is going to go a lot lower before Boris Johnson has finished with it.  His hard Brexit will probably see fall to less than B30 and the UK economy will be hurt for years.  But great news for his mates who run hedge funds and are shorting sterling.

[jlwilliamsjr18]

Let's talk about inflation. The baht could be 25 to the dollar again and if the prices were rolled back to then it's good. After all,  it's why most of us call this home. It's the inflation and upward prices that hurts everyone.

[sanemax]

12 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

The pound is going to go a lot lower before Boris Johnson has finished with it.  His hard Brexit will probably see fall to less than B30 and the UK economy will be hurt for years.  But great news for his mates who run hedge funds and are shorting sterling.

Why dont you bet on the Pound falling as well ?

You can become rich as well .

[sambum]

In 2015 I was getting 73 baht to the pound! Happy days indeed!

[Samuel Smith]

1 minute ago, sambum said:

In 2015 I was getting 73 baht to the pound! Happy days indeed!

shurely 2005 ????

[Dogmatix]

33 minutes ago, globalspark said:

I wrote a small article on this very subject some months ago. Retirees  may not be leaving  the land of smiles but they are certainly hurting as their pensions have lost 30-50% ground.

 As i stated in my last article  now  they do not go to bars often rather sit at home  or on the beach drinking take aways from the local 7/11 or wherever. My friends living their  tell me the may go to a bar once a week  and I believe that as every time I come  to Thailand i need to make arrangements to met them   at some bar.

   Every day items  are increasing in costs and what I noticed on my last trip was that  street food is  about the same price but portions  about half.  My Dentist  costs have gone from 25% Australian cost to now  50%. so a implant in Australia is around $5000 and  in Thailand now  $2500.

 Hotels in  Thailand are   about the same as 10 years  but once  again the  stronger  baht  is  pushing up the prices. 

 People  tend to come to Thailand  to retire   when they are just to young and their plans soon go bear shape as happened  with the strong baht.  I wrote in my last article it is cheaper for me to live in Australia and come for holidays.  If you come to retire you must be able to buy a  condo in thailand or have the funds  aside invested to pay the rent and your pension for pay money.

 

Medical expenses are a big issue too.  Went to visit the mother-in-law in the village last week and all the chat amongst the old ladies was about a farang retiree of unknown nationality who was living in the village with his Thai wife.  He got sick and ended up dying virtually penniless in the amphur government hospital leaving a B150,000 hospital bill for his wife.  She contacted his children by his first wife in Farangland but they had no interest (no doubt he had had a messy divorce from there mother and didn't like their Thai stepmother).  No one from outside the village came to his funeral, another expense she had to find the money for.  He is out of it now and it was maybe a good time for him to go - RIP.  The village ladies have learned that getting their daughters married off to farangs is not always a route to easy money. 

 

I guess that, sadly, there will be a lot more cases like this exacerbated by the strong baht. 

[transam]

4 minutes ago, sambum said:

In 2015 I was getting 73 baht to the pound! Happy days indeed!

Doubt it....????.......????

[emptypockets]

5 hours ago, happy chappie said:

I moved all of my savings over by brexit result and invested in property even though there were many saying just rent.

ive lived in the house for nearly 4 years and I'm in negotiations to sell.if it sells I'll transfer the majority of it back to the uk and will of made 2 million and four years of living here.the profit has come purely through the fall of the pound and rise of the baht.i think I must be one of only a few expats that want to see the baht go up even more.

i do feel sorry for them that planned their retirement because I don't think anyone could of predicted what has happened to both currencies.also I personally know of a few that have sold up and gone home and now all of my friends that used to visit Thailand have wiped their hands of the place.

thailand will soon feel the pain.its ok all the reports of India and China saving the day but most can't afford to visit.

 

 

If it sells.........

[MadMuhammad]

1 hour ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Show me anyone who anticipated it would fall to 37 and I'll call them a liar. Are you one of them? If so, maybe you should gamble in stocks if you're so good spotting trends.

I do have a very healthy portfolio that generates far more p.a. than my yearly expenses ????????

[Almer]

By just cutting back a bit you can correct the effects, but that is money not going into the local economy, likewise with the need to keep money seasoned for extension time that is another chunk of cash not being spent, ok not make much difference to the national economy but up here in the north east businesses need every baht they can get there hands on, if the baht drops to 20 to GBP  it wont send me packing but there will be no spending even more out the local economy, but on a positive note with the baht at 20 convert say 2 million to sterling, very nice thank you 

[billd766]

7 hours ago, aqua4 said:

This story raises a few questions:

 

So there is only 80,000 retired expats in Thailand and before all of this there was only 56,000? Do those numbers look right? If those numbers are correct then there would be even less people on a marriage visa. So if all of these are correct then why is immigration always so full?

 

If you read the article carefully it said,

quote "The Thai government issued almost 80,000 retirement visas last year, a climb of 30% from 2014."

What it did not say is how many extensions were renewed nor how many marriage visas and extension were issued either.

 

IMO it means that 80,000 NEW extensions were granted. Also it did not mention how many expats died or went back to their home countries either.

 

A very badly researched and written article.

 

[Dogmatix]

18 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Why dont you bet on the Pound falling as well ?

You can become rich as well .

I think I will.

[billd766]

7 hours ago, MadMuhammad said:

Can anyone give me a link to a currency chart GBP to THB that goes back further than the Asian Financial Crisis when the value of the pound blew out against the Thai Baht? 

Just curious as to what it was tracking at historically 

Try this one from KBank.

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1999&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=31&MM2=12&YYYY2=1999&btnOK=Go!

[Samuel Smith]

The more the pound falls against the baht, the more valuable my wife's land becomes converting back to pounds.  Weathering the storm at the moment, but if the pound drops off another cliff, we can always cash in & head back to Blighty.

[Greenside]

7 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Sounds like another fool not planning his life properly with no escape route.

So just how much buffer does one build into his or her retirement planning calculations to avoid smug comments from keyboard warriors on TV?  Decimated GBP, unaccountably strong baht 50% effective loss of income - tell me who built that much into their calculations and at what point will they begin to hurt?

[Greenside]

As long as you can get her a visa ????

[khunjeff]

3 hours ago, Kerryd said:

I'd say (too) that they are talking about the number of "new" visas that have been issued. Immigration puts out a spreadsheet that shows the number of foreigners here in different categories (in Thai so it makes it difficult to know which category refers to which visa class). Seems I've deleted the 2018 spreadsheet so I can't look up the numbers.

Offhand, the numbers here on "yearly" visas/extensions was in the 6 figures though. I couldn't tell if they differentiated between those on "retirement", "marriage", "ED", "Business" or other classes though.

 

So an increase of 30% in the number of "new" visas issued over that period could be accurate. Let us not forget that if the majority of tourists arriving are coming from India and China, then there would probably be a corresponding increase in the number of "Non-O(A)" visas being issued to people from those countries as well. It's not just fat old white guys that "retire" here you know !
 

 

The 80,000 number is indeed the (approximate) number of retirement extensions, not the number of visas issued. On the attached spreadsheet from Immigration showing all the extensions processed in 2018, go to the sheet labeled "reason", look at line 7 ("ใช้ชีวิตบั้นปลาย"), and you'll see that the total is 79,107.

 

The reason there are so many people in immigration offices is that there were over a million total extensions for migrant workers and tourists, and 300,000 extensions in other categories. 

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