Financial Crisis Beginning in Thailand

[Banana7]

It seems that Thailand is at the beginning of a financial crisis and things here are getting financially bad for many people.

 

I spent the last week in 2 different resorts and numerous restaurants about 200 km south of Bangkok. These resorts (beach front) have rooms listed in the 3,000-4,000 baht per night range at popular websites like booking.com. I was able to get rooms for 2,000b per night by phoning the hotel directly. During my stays, I was the only patron in both resorts.

 

Next, I visited numerous restaurants, usually beach front, for lunch and dinner. All the restaurants had 40+ seats. In all of the restaurants, at most there were 5 patrons, including my GF and me. Several times, my GF and I were the only patrons. Talking to the owners, they said foreigners had not yet come this year.

 

Finally, several friends in northern Thailand are reporting people are leaving big cities and returning to their home districts to take farm labour jobs. In past years, farm labourers were very difficult to find. Now there is a waiting list to get farm jobs.

 

Major factors reducing foreigners are the currency exchange rate and immigration policy/enforcement changes. The .25% Bank of Thailand interest rate drop has had no material effect on the exchange rate.

 

These are strong indicators that a financial crisis is beginning in Thailand.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Banana7

[White Christmas13]

3000-4000 baht per night? I use Booking.com and I pay 5200 for 8 days,and yes it is not near

the beach,but it has a beautiful swimming pool,bar and restaurant.

[bkk6060]

I disagree some empty hotels and restaurants at one location do not translate to your prognosis.

A "financial crisis"  ( I suggest you research the definition) is not beginning nor going to happen.

 

[White Christmas13]

1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said:

3000-4000 baht per night? I use Booking.com and I pay 5200 for 8 days,and yes it is not near

the beach,but it has a beautiful swimming pool,bar and restaurant.

Don't believe me?

[Puchaiyank]

3 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Don't believe me?

It is not that we do not believe you...it is that we can not believe you found it necessary to post it...

[Puchaiyank]

Personally, I find your observations very interesting and you may be on to something...

 

The fact that the Thais are promoting Chinese and Indian tourism indicates desperation in the tourist industry...

 

They may have to get help from Cambodia, Lao, and Myanmar ladies to service their tourists as Thai ladies already know what to expect from them...????

[White Christmas13]

1 minute ago, Puchaiyank said:

It is not that we do not believe you...it is that we can not believe you found it necessary to post it...

just one picture I don't want to name the hotel.

 

 

[Puchaiyank]

4 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

just one picture I don't want to name the hotel.

 

 

Where are the half-naked ladies slumbering by the pool sipping pina coladas?  ????   Seriously, it looks very nice...hope you enjoyed your stay...

[CNXexpat]

1 hour ago, Banana7 said:

beginning of a financial crisis

I think you don´t know what a financial crisis is. It has nothing to do with some empty hotels. In Chiang Mai are so many tourists. The streets are full. 

[StayinThailand2much]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

I disagree some empty hotels and restaurants at one location do not translate to your prognosis.

A "financial crisis"  ( I suggest you research the definition) is not beginning nor going to happen.

 

There has been a shift from Western-tourist-frequented hotels and restaurants to other venues in recent years, thanks to different tourists (nationalities/groups). As for the total, it's hard to say, whether there is a decline, or not.

Edited November 15, 2019 by StayinThailand2much

[KhaoYai]

I was in Phuket recently. Its been a few years since I was last there but I can honestly say that the last time I saw so many half built and clearly mothballed condo/hotel builds was following the 97 crash. In the UK, the property market is often seen as a barometer for the economy as a whole, I can't see Thailand being much different.

 

A friend who works for one of the larger hotel chains with 2 hotels in Phuket told me occupancy rates were poor and that they'd delayed introducing high season rates this year.

 

I doubt that there is going to be another crash like the 97 one as Thailand and Asia as a whole is in a stronger position that it was then but its clear that all is not well.  As for western tourism, I suspect that one of the major attractions of Thailand was the brilliant value for money previous exchange rates provided. Now that's gone and in many cases, continues to get worse, its hard to see western tourism returning to anything like the levels seen in previous years unless there is a major hike in rates.  A lot of typical western tourists are simply looking for somewhere hot, with nice beaches and decent hotels at affordable prices. They can now get better value closer to home without the long haul flights.

 

I'm not so sure tourists are put off by Thai immigration policies - I can't see many of them being aware of what's going on in that sphere.

Edited November 15, 2019 by KhaoYai

[White Christmas13]

18 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

Where are the half-naked ladies slumbering by the pool sipping pina coladas?  ????   Seriously, it looks very nice...hope you enjoyed your stay...

The half naked ladies are sitting in the bar waiting for me (no just one)

[White Christmas13]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

I disagree some empty hotels and restaurants at one location do not translate to your prognosis.

A "financial crisis"  ( I suggest you research the definition) is not beginning nor going to happen.

 

This was not my quote

[spidermike007]

Western tourism In Thailand has declined to a negligible number of tourists with real money to spend. This is having a dramatic impact on millions of Thai people. The low baht Chinese and Indians are providing the TAT with numbers but the quality of tourists has declined dramatically.  

 

The high baht is hurting exports and a worldwide correction is coming. This will affect a Thailand too. 

 

The mistakes this administration has made are staggering. They have alot to account for, to both the Thai people and the ex-pat community. One can only hope the billionaire generals are held to account, one way or another,  once they are booted from power. 

[Traubert]

21 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Western tourism In Thailand has declined to a negligible number of tourists with real money to spend.

Yup, just a negligible 4.9m westerners or so.....

 

Although Britain is 13,000 down from it's peak. Woe is Thailand at the lack of fighting beer boys from Bolton.

[Pravda]

Edited November 15, 2019 by Pravda

[wasabi]

Might be a hotel occupancy crisis but doubtful this is putting a dent in the economy as a whole.... by and large Thailand is doing very well just wish that Baht would drop. 

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Yup, just a negligible 4.9m westerners or so.....

 

Although Britain is 13,000 down from it's peak. Woe is Thailand at the lack of fighting beer boys from Bolton.

I used to have alot of wealthy friends, who visited Thailand. None of them (without a single exception) have returned. None. One trip. That was it. Their wives and girlfriends complained too much, that they could not do any luxury shopping. They were unwilling to spend $13,000 on a Prada handbag, they could get for $4,900 in Singapore, Dubai, London, New York, Miami, Milan, Madrid, Hong Kong, or the Seychelles. Plus, they could not get great wine at fair prices, and even if they found a bottle they loved, and were willing to spend three to five times what it cost at home, they could not get any advice on vintages, etc. The service at that higher level is really lacking. 

 

There is a list of 10-20 very good reasons why Thailand cannot attract many well heeled tourists. Some could be corrected. Some are cultural. Some are just due to a fabulously ignorant government. But, the western tourists who do come these days are not the big spenders of yesteryear. And despite the Chinese having one of the highest per capita averages of tourists worldwide, very few of those wealthy Chinese and Indian tourists do not visit Thailand. Thailand simply cannot cater to them, take care of them properly, show them enough deference and respect, and give them the kinds of amenities they are looking for. High end spas are simply not enough. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by spidermike007

[Pravda]

To be fair when was Thailand a mecca for rich Farang? 

 

I'm sure a few here and there used to come for golfing but that's it. 

[ezzra]

Thailand is mostly geard up to the low to middle class tourists, and there are plenty of them but in Thailand like in Thailand, you have like 100 of thousands hotels, motels, guesthouses and all others in between and they all compete for the same number of tourists, and the whole industry surviving pretty much on a wing and prayer that the tourists will continue to come, however, the OP observation was in the low season, right about now hotels and airline seats are being booked up for the busy season...

[jackdd]

They don't understand that more arrivals doesn't mean the total time of all tourists spent in Thailand increases as well.

Chinese people stay maybe 3-5 days in average in Thailand

Western tourists might stay 2 weeks in Thailand

So to replace one western tourist they need about 3 Chinese tourists.

It would be interesting to see how long the average tourist stays in Thailand and how this number changed over the years, but i doubt that's looking good for Thailand so they don't release this number.

[fruitman]

A whopper now costs 100 baht, yes i think the crisis is coming.....

[Grumpy John]

Financial crisis.....indirectly yes, but not because of the lack of tourist numbers.  A global slowdown is underway with the purchase of Thai made goods which leads to redundancies in the factories.  Lets take the local lane I live in.   Starting from the East, North side.  First house derelict, second house daughter and Son-in-L redundant from factory in Rayong for months.  Son-in-L now transporting fruit for baht after M-in-L bought him a 3 ton pick-up. 3rd house daughter finished Polytechnic a year ago, still home. Wifes house, we got rid of her bludging daughter 2 months ago! 5th house my B-in-L eldest son doing a bit of tractor driving for pocket money, food and room....was working in a factory Chonburi.  6th house school kids.  7th house daughter finished uni 6 months ago now living at home with mum.  8th house lad conscripted into army with a year or so to go.  The South side of the lane is all oldies except for 2 families with school kids.  So with a shortage of young farm workers in the district there are some girls we would rather be swinging in a hammock than swinging a hoe....which probably says as much about the parents as the child!

[Tropicalevo]

It is low season. Lots of restaurants here on Samui close for November and hotels lay off staff.

[Peterw42]

6 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

It is low season. Lots of restaurants here on Samui close for November and hotels lay off staff.

Isn't low season mid year june/july etc. November is usually seen as the start of high season.

 

In Pattaya, the resturants/hotels are starting to reopen and put on staff this time of the year.

 

[Tayaout]

I just booked a week on Koh Mak island. The price are so high for good hotel with seaview (every island I checked) that if I wasn't already in Thailand with a young child then I would probably go somewhere else. 

[No1]

With about 2 million registered businesses in Thailand, what is the significance and impact to the Thai economy of two hotels which are giving discounts?

[Assurancetourix]

8 hours ago, White Christmas13 said:

just one picture I don't want to name the hotel.

 

 

I know it ..

 

A night shot ..and about " The half naked ladies ..." they are not far on the left side of your photo 

 

 

delicious pizza at the restaurant and not expensive ..

[Peterw42]

A financial crisis is nothing to do with empty hotel or numbers of tourists. A financial crisis like the GFC is to do with "printing money", 

Easy access to money or credit, that then funds an unrealistic or sustainable bubble.

 

The GFC was banks printing money to fund a real estate bubble, and the bubble burst.

 

Hotel occupancy or the price of bananas during the lead up to the GFC was largely irrelevant.

Edited November 16, 2019 by Peterw42

[saengd]

2 hours ago, jackdd said:

They don't understand that more arrivals doesn't mean the total time of all tourists spent in Thailand increases as well.

Chinese people stay maybe 3-5 days in average in Thailand

Western tourists might stay 2 weeks in Thailand

So to replace one western tourist they need about 3 Chinese tourists.

It would be interesting to see how long the average tourist stays in Thailand and how this number changed over the years, but i doubt that's looking good for Thailand so they don't release this number.

If you google average tourist spend Thailand you'll see that Chinese tourists spend more on average than their western counterparts.