How many Expats plans are on hold due to the property slow down?

[KSwr7UDHyn]

1 hour ago, Why Me said:

Again look at the data. An average recession lasts 11 months. Even the 2007-2008 Great recession lasted only 18. So, have the cash to tide over max 2 years till the markets back even and then you're riding the upswing again (and don't forget to replenish the cash bucket in the bull years). No need to drop expenses as you suggest.

 

That's my strategy at any rate. I have cash in my credit union to see me through 2 years. People screw up when then bail out from fear at a market bottom or starting raiding their principal.

So, you have two year's worth of cash sitting in a money market account or CD earning next to nothing? 

 

I think you're simply presenting another side if the same coin.  You're forgoing stock market returns as a hedge against a recession.  So, you are paying (via lost returns) for peace of mind. 

 

[Pattaya46]

46 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Well even if it was true after paying the real estate agent and all taxes there is hardly any serious profit left  especially after  holding the property for such a long period. //

Who need a real estate agent nowadays to sell a condo in Thailand?

Internet and Facebook do the job faster, better and for free.

"All taxes" are rather small ones, mainly after 10+ years of owning his place.

[Number 6]

I'm beginning to wonder if the business plan for developers is simply to sell what they can and then run the places (into the ground) as rental units.

 

Economy starting to sour. I'm now reading about this hitting BKK. My students are discussing it. It's coming. Tipping point is when everyone stops spending and people start losing jobs. Mortgages in arrears, people double up in living quarters, downsize, etc.

 

The nouveau rentier class won't be able to make their mortgages nor will Pim and Somchai.

 

I think developers will do rentals in a few or all new buildings to stay afloat. Rob Peter to pay Paul. Meanwhile condos will deteriorate. New becomes used.

 

To someone's earlier comments - Google what you can buy in Florida vs Phuket for a good laff. Florida is starting to weaken as well.

[Number 6]

16 minutes ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:

So, you have two year's worth of cash sitting in a money market account or CD earning next to nothing? 

 

I think you're simply presenting another side if the same coin.  You're forgoing stock market returns as a hedge against a recession.  So, you are paying (via lost returns) for peace of mind. 

 

But what's the gain upside and the risk on the downside? Really at the end of the cycle.

[KSwr7UDHyn]

2 hours ago, Why Me said:

Anyway, back to Thailand I can't see the advantage of owning unless you really know what you are doing like some earlier posters claim. My rent hasn't gone up in 15 years, my investments back home are fully liquid unlike a house/condo here, I have no worries about being stuck in a poorly maintained place or with lousy neighbors, if I choose I can leave and move to the other end of the country in a week, a nice freedom.

 

For you, the freedom to move is important.  For someone else, knowing they always have a place to live no matter what happens to their investments, might be perceived as freedom (freedom from worry). 

 

That's ultimately what a lot of this comes down to; different strokes for different folks.  Everyone is arguing as if they're right and everyone else is wrong.  But there's no right or wrong. 

 

Even back in the US, people have these rent vs buy debates and people will often draw up these very elaborate, but completely flawed, mathematical models to show that their point of view is right, but, not surprisingly, they never convince the people taking the other side of the argument. 

 

Mostly because the difference is typically negligible and it really comes down to personal choice, and personal choice can't be expressed in a mathematical model. 

 

Personally, I would probably never INVEST in Thai real estate, even though I've done lots of real estate investing in the US. 

 

But I can understand why people want to own a condo or go out somewhere rural and buy a house (in their spouse's name).  I'm looking to buy something, not sure where or when, but I like owning my house. 

 

That said, while I think I could come up to speed very quickly on Thai real estate, the fact that people talk about properties taking years to sell, gives me way too much pause.  I don't want to have to worry about selling to get my money. 

 

But, that doesn't mean people that do it are wrong.  They just have a different risk tolerance or investment criteria than I do.  Good on them.  

[KSwr7UDHyn]

1 minute ago, Number 6 said:

But what's the gain upside and the risk on the downside? Really at the end of the cycle.

 

I guess I could rephrase that in terms of, how much money have they lost since 2010 or 2011 when we came out of the last recession?  

 

Let's just say that, your budget is $3K USD a month, or $36K a year.  No need for anybody to start crying about the fact that they live on $1,500, the general math works out the same.  

 

So, $36K x 2 years = $72K sitting in cash (or cash equivalents like money market)

 

In the time between Jan 1, 2011 until today, they gave up an average annual rate of return of 10.5% and your investment would have increased in value 141% over that time period.  

 

So, they've given up $101,520 waiting for a recession.  

 

And that's not even including dividends.  With dividend reinvestment, they lost $133,200.  

 

Like I said, doesn't matter if it's $3K a month or $1K a month, the important part is the 141% return over that period.  

 

Back in the US, people have been talking about the housing market being too frothy and set for a major crash since, oh, 2014 or so.  I bought a house in 2014, sold it in 2019 and it increased in value over 30%.  

 

So, is it really the end of a cycle?  It seemed like the end of a cycle in 2014 too.  If I had waited to buy a house, I would have lost six-figures in appreciation.  

 

That doesn't mean that I'm some eternal optimist.  I think we're near the end of a cycle too.  I'm just not willing to try to time the market.  

 

[madmen]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I live in Chiang Mai. I can assure you rents are falling off a cliff here and in Chiang Rai. Immigration has succeeded in chasing out the less well-heeled expats, and the Chinese tourists are not replacing them in the condos and houses - they are being bussed to hotels.

I don't know anything about Bangkok real estate except I don't want to live there. My advice to property owners there would be sell up before you are underwater - literally.

Why would you compare Sydney to a Victorian country town which is what your doing Chang mai/rai

Bangkok sunk already 20 years ago on TV, I only wear shorts and gum boots in preparation but nothing ever happens 

[Why Me]

43 minutes ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:

So, you have two year's worth of cash sitting in a money market account or CD earning next to nothing? 

 

I think you're simply presenting another side if the same coin.  You're forgoing stock market returns as a hedge against a recession.  So, you are paying (via lost returns) for peace of mind.

I have $40k in my CU doing nothing. And $1.4mil in the market working their butts off for my well-being. 40k is less than 3% of my capital as a hedge for the 7% annual return.

 

Incidentally, that $1.4mil came from 250k I had saved before moving here in 2005. If I had a rush of blood say in 2007 to buy a condo for $150,000 (5 mil b. then) which I almost did I would be worth less than half I am now, not that it's a lot but at this time I can afford to buy a 10mil b. place which gives me a nice uppity buzz. But I won't:-)

 

24 minutes ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:

For you, the freedom to move is important.  For someone else, knowing they always have a place to live no matter what happens to their investments, might be perceived as freedom (freedom from worry). 

Totally agree. There's a big psychological component that's not measurable. Especially handy people who can fix and build stuff thrive in their own place. Me, a leaky faucet I would have to call help.  

 

[madmen]

TV where anyone can put Warren Buffet to shame by turning 1.5 million into 10 by just a few clicks of a mouse relaxing at home in their luxurious 4k a month fan rooms LMAO !!!

[KSwr7UDHyn]

15 minutes ago, Why Me said:

I have $40k in my CU doing nothing. And $1.4mil in the market working their butts off for my well-being. 40k is less than 3% of my capital as a hedge for the 7% annual return.

 

Incidentally, that $1.4mil came from 250k I had saved before moving here in 2005. If I had a rush of blood say in 2007 to buy a condo for $150,000 (5 mil b. then) which I almost did I would be worth less than half I am now, not that it's a lot but at this time I can afford to buy a 10mil b. place which gives me a nice uppity buzz. But I won't:-)

 

Congrats and I don't mean this to sound insulting but you would have been an idiot to spend $150K of your $250K net worth on a condo back in 2005.  That would have been 60% of your net worth tied up in one asset which is just bad investing to begin with. 

 

But, I don't think that's necessarily what people are suggesting either.  I don't see people talking about sinking half their net worth into a condo. 

 

Like, someone buying a 3 or 4 million baht condo out in Issan or Pattaya or Chiang Mai or ?? that has $1.4 million in the market, isn't crazy.  I mean, you could lose more than $100,000 (3 million baht) in a market correction. 

 

If that gives them comfort, and they feel like they can live on $1,500 a month, rather than $2,200 a month with rent, and they can just live off that SS money and let their portfolio keep rolling, well, great for them. 

 

It seems like this thread has a lot of straw men being set up.  People seem to construct these arguments trying to win arguments against situations nobody is actually proposing. 

 

Like, even this, conversation is really just the extension of me trying to remind someone that you can't just assume that because the market has historically returned 7%, that your returns are going to be 7% every year, and how to look at sequencing of returns as a better way of thinking about market returns. 

[HeyHeyHey]

On 11/24/2019 at 12:58 PM, ThomasThBKK said:

 

i command you for doing it in 2 years but it's likely 3-4 years in my experience, talking about proper western standard houses not some issan thing for 3 mio THB tho

 

Especially because of the monsoon season here, where you can literally not start building as your basement will be washed away.

 

Buy land, including lawyer, due diligence, payments, land office meetings etc: 3 months

Getting a good architect, have him planned everything: 6 months

Building permit without bribing people: 3 months

Finding a PROPER CONSTRUCTION COMPANY willing to build where you want, haggling their overpriced prices down: random amount of months

Then wait for the next dry season to actually start building.

Oh and if you build on new land you often have to add earth there and let it sack for half a year at least

Building a proper sized house with landscaping and all modern ammenities: At least 18 months....

 

 

And then you are in year 3 easily...

 

 

Good point, if you talking about a trophy design house in locations such Phuket or Samui

 

If you can touch the ready to use quality, all is settled without major issues it is reasonable to expect premium

 

But for example in Hua Hin the houses are not trophy design category, they are more slum shhhiit houses run of the mill with furniture that your grandpa would consider vintage. Then they expect to get 10 million or more for that

 

C

R

A

P

[Bangkokazy]

Renting out motorhomes and caravans, will be the new thing in Thailand.

then you can bring houses with you to work.

[ThomasThBKK]

2 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

Good point, if you talking about a trophy design house in locations such Phuket or Samui

 

If you can touch the ready to use quality, all is settled without major issues it is reasonable to expect premium

 

But for example in Hua Hin the houses are not trophy design category, they are more slum shhhiit houses run of the mill with furniture that your grandpa would consider vintage. Then they expect to get 10 million or more for that

 

C

R

A

P

Yes they are indeed, i wouldn't even look into these off the shelf houses and moobans, they are nothing special. They are build from plans they downloaded from google prolly. There's no thought in them, they are just massbuild <deleted> and they are exactly the kind of properties you will be stuck on.

 

There's some cool houses in hua hin tho, but they are all tailored to owners needs and way more expensive to build than 10mio THB: https://www.archdaily.com/878180/seaside-villa-shinichi-ogawa-and-associates

 

 

 

[tjo o tjim]

8 hours ago, KSwr7UDHyn said:But, I don't think that's necessarily what people are suggesting either.  I don't see people

Like, even this, conversation is really just the extension of me trying to remind someone that you can't just assume that because the market has historically returned 7%, that your returns are going to be 7% every year, and how to look at sequencing of returns as a better way of thinking about market returns. 

People also should consider the inflation effect; 7% return is really only 5% after adjusting for inflation. For me, I have done the math, and I can invest up to about 30% of my net worth in a (marketable) home only if I can secure stock returns of about 2.5-3x the mortgage interest rates.  
 

Buying a condo in Bangkok is only something I could do with “mad money.”

[1FinickyOne]

22 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

We were talking about real houses, there's no way to build a western style house that is a proper investment in 3 months.

It takes 1-2 years in Spain, in germany, in the US and it takes the same amount of time in Phuket and Bangkok. 

Just randomly putting a house in thai standards somewhere in a village is not an investment and not what we are talking about.

 

Just for reference, these are real proper houses, that people are willing to spill money out for in thailand: http://www.thaweemongkol.co.th/projects/

 

 

 

You could bring that builder to europe and get instant rich, people would line 2 kilometeres for a builder that can build a single family house in London in 3 months.

 

 

 

Western style house - parquet floors - - maybe a couple of very minor glitches... a large crew of workers and finished in about 3 - 4 months... sorry, thats my experience... though it was built for proper living - not investment... though not sure why that matters...  

[GarryP]

9 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

Western style house - parquet floors - - maybe a couple of very minor glitches... a large crew of workers and finished in about 3 - 4 months... sorry, thats my experience... though it was built for proper living - not investment... though not sure why that matters...  

When it comes to houses, how many foreigners are actually buying them as an investment? Very, very few. Most are buying homes for their family like you.  I have seen a number of very well built houses that have gone up in 3 to 6 months (the land was already filled and had settled). And I will be going this way when I retire up country - but no parquet. 

 

There seems to be a number of parallel threads going on at the same time. However, from the initial post I understood that it was about 'investing' in a condo to live in rather than for resale and the same applies to houses. 

[tabarin]

2 hours ago, GarryP said:

When it comes to houses, how many foreigners are actually buying them as an investment? Very, very few. Most are buying homes for their family like you.  I have seen a number of very well built houses that have gone up in 3 to 6 months (the land was already filled and had settled). And I will be going this way when I retire up country - but no parquet. 

 

There seems to be a number of parallel threads going on at the same time. However, from the initial post I understood that it was about 'investing' in a condo to live in rather than for resale and the same applies to houses. 

My landlord owns houses for investment, american and thai couple, they do very well and make good returns + all properties filled.
Just a matter of what you do, there is always niches that work within markets.

The problem is actually that most people ask insane rental prices or do not know how to make their property look attractive to foreigners.
Or you have old properties at good prices, but with no furniture at all (and owners are to cheap to invest in making it look nice).

People forget there has been great time before, the ones that sold their stuff or rented it out for the past 15 years, paid back the entire property.

[ThomasThBKK]

6 hours ago, tabarin said:

My landlord owns houses for investment, american and thai couple, they do very well and make good returns + all properties filled.
Just a matter of what you do, there is always niches that work within markets.

The problem is actually that most people ask insane rental prices or do not know how to make their property look attractive to foreigners.
Or you have old properties at good prices, but with no furniture at all (and owners are to cheap to invest in making it look nice).

People forget there has been great time before, the ones that sold their stuff or rented it out for the past 15 years, paid back the entire property.

Right, one such tactic is called Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance and Repeat (BRRRR): https://investfourmore.com/brrrr-method/

 

And works as fine here than anywhere else in the world, with the small difference that you will most likely need a thai partner/or company or big capital for the refinance part. But no money is to be earned without doing work anyway.

 

Another problem is people are too damn stubborn and insist on a rent or strategy that isn't working in the market, so houses are empty instead of producing cashflow, but you can't help these kind of investors

[DaRoadrunner]

13 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Right, one such tactic is called Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance and Repeat (BRRRR): https://investfourmore.com/brrrr-method/

 

And works as fine here than anywhere else in the world, with the small difference that you will most likely need a thai partner/or company or big capital for the refinance part. But no money is to be earned without doing work anyway.

 

Another problem is people are too damn stubborn and insist on a rent or strategy that isn't working in the market, so houses are empty instead of producing cashflow, but you can't help these kind of investors

This system works in the west. In Thailand, how much of a refinance loan could you get?

[Roy Baht]

On 11/24/2019 at 11:02 PM, Why Me said:

I have everything in staid boring index funds. The market historically grows at an average of 7%/annum recessions included.

I think there's a misconception regarding index funds. They aren't something to put your money into after you retire. In that case, you will of course have cash flow problems when the market takes a dive. The idea is to put your savings into index funds while you're working, ideally 20 or 30 years before you retire. Those who did so--and have, say, $1M in the S&P 500--are in pretty good shape now and through wise profit-taking have enough cushion to survive the next crash.

[ThomasThBKK]

13 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

This system works in the west. In Thailand, how much of a refinance loan could you get?

More then in the west actually, but not as a foreigner. Hence my comment about needing a thai.

 

You could get a loan here for dogpoo if you are a thai with income.

 

 

But forget what i said they are about to kill that niche market next via stupidly overbuilding houses and swamping the market: 

 

Since unlike London, California and co they can build everywhere here without restrictions there will be tons of bs houses on the market after this next hype...i concur.

 

The only thing u can make money from are penthouses and luxury houses then i guess...

 

 

 

[baansgr]

If anyone wants to see the true state of expat real estate in Thailand.  Join the 100 or so groups of RE on Facebook targeting over a million  people.  Post a condo,  land,  house for sale will be lucky to get one reply... Post you are looking to buy  and will receive hundreds if not thousands of replies

[Pattaya46]

9 minutes ago, baansgr said:

If anyone wants to see the true state of expat real estate in Thailand.  Join the 100 or so groups of RE on Facebook targeting over a million  people.  Post a condo,  land,  house for sale will be lucky to get one reply... Post you are looking to buy  and will receive hundreds if not thousands of replies

People must stop thinking that Facebook or Internet sites are the miracle solution to sell a condo unit. 

Last experience I heard about, in my condo one floor below mine: The owner tried FB, HipFlat, etc. Nearly no contact in 2 months and only from sharks offering less than half the price! He then made a nice color ad that he posted on the board in the lobby. Result: 1 or 2 visits by week; sold in 6 weeks. ????

Not the first time that I notice that: Many buys are made by friends or acquaintances of people already living in the condo, and who obviously like it.

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

People must stop thinking that Facebook or Internet sites are the miracle solution to sell a condo unit. 

Last experience I heard about, in my condo one floor below mine: The owner tried FB, HipFlat, etc. Nearly no contact in 2 months and only from sharks offering less than half the price! He then made a nice color ad that he posted on the board in the lobby. Result: 1 or 2 visits by week; sold in 6 weeks. ????

Not the first time that I notice that: Many buys are made by friends or acquaintances of people already living in the condo, and who obviously like it.

 

Agreed... But use FB and every other internet site possible. Use posters, tell security, offer front desk staff commission etc... 

Another tip - if you want to sell your condo also put it up for rent, it may have a better chance of sale if its considered a 'business opportunity'... i.e. Sale with a Tennant. 

The Lobby board poster is an excellent method of sale. Many people looking for a Condo will drive around an area they want to move to and stop and look at Condos they are interested in, first stopping off at the front desk or juristic office to ask if any units are available. 

 

It took us nearly 3 years to sell our previous Condo, it eventually sold to the lady across the hallway within a month of getting tenants (4 years later tenants have apparently trashed it and disappeared). 

[scubascuba3]

9 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

People must stop thinking that Facebook or Internet sites are the miracle solution to sell a condo unit. 

Last experience I heard about, in my condo one floor below mine: The owner tried FB, HipFlat, etc. Nearly no contact in 2 months and only from sharks offering less than half the price! He then made a nice color ad that he posted on the board in the lobby. Result: 1 or 2 visits by week; sold in 6 weeks. ????

Not the first time that I notice that: Many buys are made by friends or acquaintances of people already living in the condo, and who obviously like it.

No harm to put an advert in the lobby but an advert on Facebook will reach far more people, problem is a lot of people aren't tech enough to even use Facebook

[Halfaboy]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

No harm to put an advert in the lobby but an advert on Facebook will reach far more people, problem is a lot of people aren't tech enough to even use Facebook

 

Or don't have Facebook ....

[scubascuba3]

20 minutes ago, Halfaboy said:

 

Or don't have Facebook ....

Facebook is good for buying and selling, all the other rubbish can be ignored if you choose. Even Luddites should use it for that

[newnative]

17 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Agreed... But use FB and every other internet site possible. Use posters, tell security, offer front desk staff commission etc... 

Another tip - if you want to sell your condo also put it up for rent, it may have a better chance of sale if its considered a 'business opportunity'... i.e. Sale with a Tennant. 

The Lobby board poster is an excellent method of sale. Many people looking for a Condo will drive around an area they want to move to and stop and look at Condos they are interested in, first stopping off at the front desk or juristic office to ask if any units are available. 

 

It took us nearly 3 years to sell our previous Condo, it eventually sold to the lady across the hallway within a month of getting tenants (4 years later tenants have apparently trashed it and disappeared). 

     Very good advice from you and Pattaya46.  We always try to get the widest exposure we can when we have a condo for sale--you never know where your buyer may come from.  That includes listing with every single real estate agency we know of--again, you never know what buyer might just happen to walk into what agency office.  There's no MLS so you need to let every agency know you have a condo for sale. 

     We've sold 2 condos this year--one with the help of front desk staff who knew our condo was for sale.  However, both were sold with the help of real estate agents--who brought the clients in the first place.  I think agents sometimes get a bad rap but most of our 19 condo sales here--and the dozen or so in the US--were done with an agent's help.  

[baansgr]

3 hours ago, Pattaya46 said:

People must stop thinking that Facebook or Internet sites are the miracle solution to sell a condo unit. 

Last experience I heard about, in my condo one floor below mine: The owner tried FB, HipFlat, etc. Nearly no contact in 2 months and only from sharks offering less than half the price! He then made a nice color ad that he posted on the board in the lobby. Result: 1 or 2 visits by week; sold in 6 weeks. ????

Not the first time that I notice that: Many buys are made by friends or acquaintances of people already living in the condo, and who obviously like it.

But it's a true indicator of the market...Tens of thousands  of sellers and very few genuine buyers. 

[xylophone]

On 11/25/2019 at 2:12 AM, Airalee said:

$200k (฿6,000,000) invested with a 5% dividend in a boring blue chip stock would bring in ฿300k (฿240k after taxes).  Plenty to pay rent without touching the capital.

Similar to my situation where I have about 65% of my capital invested in stocks and which pays a dividend of about 4.5% and I pay very little in the way of interest, and into the bargain the value of the shares has risen by 60%. My fixed interest deposits pay me around 3.5% (with 2% tax).

 

Not only that I have calculated that I will be eating into my principal over the years and that I will live to be well over 100 before it is even anywhere near depleted, so renting here makes a lot of sense for me, although I did buy at one time and luckily sold for a profit.

 

Here in Phuket, there are plenty of houses/condos for sale and they are not moving much at all. Sadly though rental prices have not dropped markedly, but there is an element of negotiation possible If one is lucky.

 

In summary I have been renting now for eight years and consider myself lucky to have sold two houses here, each for a small profit, however I know I was lucky and would never purchase here again, because renting ticks all of the boxes, especially knowing, or not knowing, what is going to hit the expats next........

 

I have a couple of friends who tried to sell their houses here to no avail, although I would say that they were not keen on dropping their prices, but then again that seems to be a farang mindset and I do believe that many others will adopt this mindset to their detriment.