Kbank analyst paints grim picture as Thailand teeters on recession

[mfd101]

I assume (though do not know) that, as in most non-1st World countries, Thailand's statistical inputs to decisionmaking are likely to be less than 95% accurate.

 

Quite basic things too, like demographics. How accurate are population statistics & predictions in a country where large numbers of the population are totally or functionally illiterate? where accuracy & precision are not cultural norms and where many citizens see no particular need to cooperate with government officials (what do I get out of it?).

 

Reminds me of the Soviet states: We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.

 

How can governments make decisions on moving forward when noone has any idea where we currently are?

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by mfd101

[Assurancetourix]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

All looks good here.

 

write the guy who works for the TAT  

[Assurancetourix]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

then there may be a world recession, or a war, or apocalypse!

It's unfortunate to write this but we started on this soapy slope

[Assurancetourix]

45 minutes ago, traveller101 said:

If Thailand is serious of avoiding recession and once and for all bringing the Baht under control - this is the recipe for success.

And their stupid excuse being labelled a currency manipulator doesn't hold water - Switzerland is not listed as a currency manipulator by the US Treasury Department.

But this is called "losing face"; it is therefore impossible in a country where "the face" is more important than life.

[Stevemercer]

The Prime MInister has been presiding over the economy for over 5 years now. If there is a problem with the economy then that man must accept responsibility.

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, Stevemercer said:

The Prime MInister has been presiding over the economy for over 5 years now. If there is a problem with the economy then that man must accept responsibility.

His cabinet of loyalists must accept responsibility too. Prayut has placed loyalty ahead of meritocracy in making key ministerial appointments. It’s now coming home to roost with his lack of capabilities and leadership and a cabinet of incompetent and grossly unqualified ministers. 

[Caldera]

About bloody time!

 

[CGW]

2 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

The Prime MInister has been presiding over the economy for over 5 years now. If there is a problem with the economy then that man must accept responsibility.

My understanding & observation of "politics" and politicians is that they NEVER accept responsibility, why must the current Prime Minister break with this practice that has been going on "forever"?

It amuses me that people still "dream" that politicians are decent human beings, your might want to reevaluate your expectations, they are totally unrealistic at this point in time.

[Redline]

I hope this person keeps their job for telling the truth 

[Mavideol]

5 hours ago, Colabamumbai said:

How can they predict a strong Baht into the new year?  Manipulating the currency markets.

how can they predict the growth rate? by manipulating numbers....

Edited November 28, 2019 by Mavideol
spelling

[Lemonltr]

4 hours ago, mikebell said:

Retirees cannot spend any of their 800,000 for FIVE months of the year so no wonder local industries/services are suffering.  I've had to cut down on my spending drastically.

Don't worry about your 800.000 baht. It has been lent out to some Thai people and they are spending it for you! 

[CGW]

4 minutes ago, Lemonltr said:

Don't worry about your 800.000 baht. It has been lent out to some Thai people and they are spending it for you! 

As banks are allowed to "loan" x 10 of deposits, they have actually loaned out 8,000,000.00, that is being spent, no wonder the country is a mess and the banks are prospering - & its all our fault! ???? 

[Mavideol]

Just now, CGW said:

As banks are allowed to "loan" x 10 of deposits, they have actually loaned out 8,000,000.00, that is being spent, no wonder the country is a mess and the banks are prospering - & its all our fault! ???? 

don't blame it on us, not our fault but IMO fault, they are the ones forcing us to deposit 800K

[beau thai]

We wouldnt expect economists to do a great job of running the army so why expect generals to make a great job of running the economy. No chance!

[Percy P]

8 hours ago, nev said:

Even blind Freddie can see where all this is heading but will they react before it's  to late. 

What do you suggest the authorities should be doing taking into consideration the authorities do not set the exchange rate.

[Percy P]

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

I assume (though do not know) that, as in most non-1st World countries, Thailand's statistical inputs to decisionmaking are likely to be less than 95% accurate.

 

Quite basic things too, like demographics. How accurate are population statistics & predictions in a country where large numbers of the population are totally or functionally illiterate? where accuracy & precision are not cultural norms and where many citizens see no particular need to cooperate with government officials (what do I get out of it?).

 

Reminds me of the Soviet states: We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.

 

How can governments make decisions on moving forward when noone has any idea where we currently are?

 

And what do you suggest. The report is from K Bank analyst not an illiterate person.

[Soikhaonoiken]

We all could see this coming (other than the top people) exports been down for months, tourists down, manufacturing down, and yet the Baht still far to strong. 

[tlandtday]

Simply need to provide multiple entry tourist visas free of charge and free air fare and hotel for all the Indian tourists spending 10000 per day and then give the Chinese the same deal cause don't they spend 8000 per day?  Problem solved!

[Grumpy John]

The one thing I want to hear is the baht is losing value....... Do you think they artificially keep it up just to p1zz me 0ff? 

[uli65]

I guess they mean 10.000 per month for the Indian 1 star tourists

[Expat Brad]

6 hours ago, howbri said:

Recessions and depressions are aLWAYS caused by government

And governments are run by big business or in LOS case the Elite!!! ????

[TKDfella]

6 hours ago, TKDfella said:

Well I don't claim to be an economist but there are two or three Thai families that have trouble with their 'easy to get' bank loans and credit cards. I don't exactly how they have accrued but I'm told it's many thousands...which they cannot pay. This bubble will surely burst if action is taken quickly to curb it. I can't get a credit card from my bank because I am retired yet I could pay my bills if I had; yet the banks are willingly giving credit cards (it seems) to those who can't pay. Oh well.

Sorry about that forum members should read read '...how much they have...' and '...burst if action isn't taken...' But then you knew that didn't you, Ha!

[Caine]

Who gives a toss, 

[Guest]

I believe this message is targeted at Foreign Real Estate investors to say "stay the course, keep sending those Dollars and Euros ... the baht will not lose 20% of its value by the time your project / investment is actually completed and can be sold / rented." 
 

What else CAN they say?  "Our economy is slowing down.  Expats are seeing our neighbors as a better choice for business, relocation, and holidays.  Our economy is in a general slowdown, and because of our "strong Baht" ... our products are more expensive on the international market. Bangkok is building condos at a record rate, along the BTS expansion, which means there are better condo choices at much lower prices along a new economic corridor.  So, dear investor, you are in a much more competitive environment, with over supply, and a very good chance the Baht will flip, go back to 35 - 1 USD, MEANING ... it will cost you about 20% MORE to buy those Dollars and Euros back."  THAT is what the bankers will say??? 555!

[Thaifly88]

13 hours ago, PAV123 said:

Freddie? He saw me last week... Fake news...

Please enlighten us, where is it going ?

[Destiny1990]

Don’t worry Bullet trains will fix the recession in aprox 2030 !

[Stevemercer]

6 hours ago, CGW said:

My understanding & observation of "politics" and politicians is that they NEVER accept responsibility, why must the current Prime Minister break with this practice that has been going on "forever"?

It amuses me that people still "dream" that politicians are decent human beings, your might want to reevaluate your expectations, they are totally unrealistic at this point in time.

 

I guess what I am trying to say is that there is one man who stands in the way of getting the economy back on track, and he is not going to go away willingly..

[mfd101]

7 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

 

I guess what I am trying to say is that there is one man who stands in the way of getting the economy back on track, and he is not going to go away willingly..

All of these kind of comments assume that, contrary to all appearances, The Guvamint has a clever plan and is implementing it.

 

Much more likely that noone who has any power to do anything much has a clue what to do, or not do, or even thinks that anything needs doing.  So nothing much is happening on this front or is likely to happen unless things get really desperate, at least for those in power.

[Stevemercer]

30 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

All of these kind of comments assume that, contrary to all appearances, The Guvamint has a clever plan and is implementing it.

 

Yes, the man in charge does have a clever plan and is implementing it. Unfortunately it is not working, but he is not willing to change it.

 

It all goes back to the 1997 Baht crash (when it was floated) and the rich lost a lot of money. Many have long memories and have vowed never to let this happen again. The higher the Baht, the better. Unfortunately the Baht is getting out of hand and the government is unwilling to take meaningful action to reign it in.

 

The government can still bring the economy to a soft landing (rather than waiting for it to fall hard off a cliff), but first the PM has to admit there is a problem. 

 

In my view, the PM is the problem because he doesn't see that there is a problem and he will keep implementing the same plan.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Stevemercer

[aspenbkk]

11 hours ago, 30la said:

Do not want or, pretend not to see that Thailand has been in recession for years now, which is becoming more and more critical.
All your analyzes are worthless because they are based on totally wrong numbers!
Go around your country, talk to people who are directly affected by the recession, easy to stay in an air-conditioned office, take government-dictated numbers and make a positive picture of the situation.

your right 100% been saying this also for last 2 years but people say your wrong we are right .