All eyes on BOT data as baht hits highest level in six years

[moe666]

2 hours ago, zydeco said:

Trump wants a weaker dollar. He has said it time and time again. Any expat who supports him is cutting his own throat.

Absolutely true

[saengd]

3 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

While I see the data points to some USD weakness—it doesn’t account for 2+ years of relentless Baht appreciation vs USD.  I have no idea what Thailand spends their USD reserves on.  Nor does it explain why other SE Asian currencies have nowhere near the same level of appreciation.

At least we can both agree that Thailand has failed miserably in keeping their currency stable.

If you go back two years as you suggest USD weakness was even more pronounced, the DI was at 90 for goodness sake, what were all other countries supposed do whilst USD plumbed the depths, deliberately weaken their own currencies also just to avoid being called a currency manipulator!

 

The US Foreign Currency Reserves total about USD 125 bill, almost half of that of Thailand, in most economies that money is not intended to be spent, that why they are called reserves!! FCR's are intended to provide confidence to trading counterparties that their export bills can and will be paid, that's the primary purpose of FCR's.

 

Why did other ASEAN currencies not appreciate at the same rate as Thailand you ask.

 

The answer is that none of them have the same economic profile that Thailand does, a combination of low foreign debt, high FCR's, a a consistent trade surplus and low unemployment. Foreign debt is a big issue for ASEAN countries: "Six Southeast Asian countries, led by Laos, have much higher external debt levels than the developing world average, sparking concern that the region may be heading for a debt crisis". https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/FT-Confidential-Research/Southeast-Asia-s-foreign-debt-spirals.

 

Thailand's debt is very low by comparison and most of it is debt that is raised at home rather than abroad so the currency risk is next to zero. In total the debt is about USD 165 bill. or around 40% of GDP.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/external-debt

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

While I see the data points to some USD weakness—it doesn’t account for 2+ years of relentless Baht appreciation vs USD.  I have no idea what Thailand spends their USD reserves on.  Nor does it explain why other SE Asian currencies have nowhere near the same level of appreciation.

At least we can both agree that Thailand has failed miserably in keeping their currency stable.

So now your daily diatribe has been disproved, are you going to move on and accept that it America that is driving the baht up and not the 'ChiComs?'

 

In Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, the dollar can be used as well as the local currencies, so the picture gets blurred because there is no peg to the dollar as there is with China. The ringit isn't traded outside of Malaysia, Indonesian rupiah is a basket case, as is Philippine pesos. Myanmar khat is hopelessly overvalued internally with a local CPI of over 8%. That pretty much covers it for the neighbours.

[Pilotman]

1 hour ago, nausea said:

The country can't sustain it, that's for sure. It's not a matter of if but when.

well it needs to get a move on then ????????

[KhunBENQ]

9 hours ago, saengd said:

The problem on this occasion is not the Baht getting stronger it's USD that weakened, the Dollar Index fell by 0.5% on Friday, the date of the article. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

+1

Initiated a Euro transfer on Saturday because of the slightly improved rate.

[Isaan sailor]

Thailand cannot or will not control the Baht.  A few more days on the exchange like today—and you will see a major upheaval of expats leaving.  

There’s something rotten in Thailand (with apologies to W. Shakespeare).

[saengd]

10 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thailand cannot or will not control the Baht.  A few more days on the exchange like today—and you will see a major upheaval of expats leaving.  

There’s something rotten in Thailand (with apologies to W. Shakespeare).

"They" may not care, certainly the financial implications to the country would be minor.

[HeyHeyHey]

9 hours ago, JackGats said:

It is wishful thinking to believe this is bad for Thailand though. Having a strong currency means the labour of your own people is highly valued. It is the best indicator of a country's prosperity and development. The Baht is behaving like the German Mark was in the 60s and the 70s, and for much the same reasons. Winners have become losers.

You should see a doctor mate, fever took over.

 

Thai labor highly valued?

 

Some of the worst education system.

 

Average salary 14k but that is official statistic believable as much as their 1.1% unemployment. Real median wage when including Isaan would be probably under 8000 a month. That is for 10 hours a day 6 days a week work you German Mark.

 

Or perhaps the slavery fishermen is highly valued?

[kevin612]

today 29.8, it is terrible.

[Traubert]

4 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

You should see a doctor mate, fever took over.

 

Thai labor highly valued?

 

Some of the worst education system.

 

Average salary 14k but that is official statistic believable as much as their 1.1% unemployment. Real median wage when including Isaan would be probably under 8000 a month. That is for 10 hours a day 6 days a week work you German Mark.

 

Or perhaps the slavery fishermen is highly valued?

Top post...........straight off the bar stool. ????

[bartender100]

13 hours ago, JackGats said:

When I retired in Thailand in late 2017, my Euro was worth 45 Bahts, now it is down to 33 Bahts. In fact the 30 thousand or so euros I transfered to my Thai bank account months ago is proving to be one of my best investments ever. Who would have guessed.

 

It is wishful thinking to believe this is bad for Thailand though. Having a strong currency means the labour of your own people is highly valued. It is the best indicator of a country's prosperity and development. The Baht is behaving like the German Mark was in the 60s and the 70s, and for much the same reasons. Winners have become losers.

This is not a knock at your post, but the EURO is in a dire situation according to a few reports, they are mega quantitative easing which is propping it up.

[wayned]

I came to stay in late 1997 and the USD hit a high of 56 baht to the dollar in January 1998 and now it's almost 1/2 at 29.8 but I'm still here for some reason.  If I still had 1998 baht in the bank, a ticket home would be almost 1/2 price.

[FalangJaiDee]

22 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

 

 

woa. i thought i had something to complain about as an American

[saengd]

6 hours ago, kevin612 said:

today 29.8, it is terrible.

On $ 5,000, an exchange rate shift of 1 Baht means a loss/gain of THB 5,000......sometimes it's just better to go ahead and make the trade, save the agony and get on with your life.

[saengd]

10 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

You should see a doctor mate, fever took over.

 

Thai labor highly valued?

 

Some of the worst education system.

 

Average salary 14k but that is official statistic believable as much as their 1.1% unemployment. Real median wage when including Isaan would be probably under 8000 a month. That is for 10 hours a day 6 days a week work you German Mark.

 

Or perhaps the slavery fishermen is highly valued?

Just so you know what you're reading.....

 

It is generally understood that at any point in time, around 4% of any workforce is in transition from one job to another, people here quit and take new jobs just like every other country and frequently they take a break in between.

 

Western governments report unemployment based on claimant count otherwise they use sampling, just as Thailand does, in doing the latter they count such people, here they do not. So the headline unemployment figure in Thailand may be 1.1% but most people who use that figure understand it does not include 4% in transition. The UK for example currently reports 3.8% which does include those in transition.

 

 

[overherebc]

On 12/30/2019 at 8:16 AM, RichardColeman said:

Yet, you just know some clown at the BOT will predict huge growth of exports in the next few days

I think I'm getting the idea now. Exports have to go up to counteract the weight of all the arriving tourists. This means that Bangkok will stop sinking.

[lapamita]

5 hours ago, wayned said:

I came to stay in late 1997 and the USD hit a high of 56 baht to the dollar in January 1998 and now it's almost 1/2 at 29.8 but I'm still here for some reason.  If I still had 1998 baht in the bank, a ticket home would be almost 1/2 price.

and things like that , will repeat over time

 

A MAJOR CHANGE IN CURRENCYS UNDERWAY

 

everybody upbeat about USD and others, i see silver linning for other currencys, and i would not wonder if the usd index will start to fall over the comming years

 

1. Currencys related to raw materials ,  AUD,NOK --major reversal in longtermcharts ( monthly), after loos of almost 40% since 2011 ( 7yr trend major currencys)

Intercorelation NZD and SEK  in topping formatins longterm

 

2. The Euro could be the rising star for the next comming years, i do not want to tell the price traget, but its much higher than most can  imagine,longterm reversal will may hold until 2024

 

3. THB is in a bottom building phase, against most major currencys (longterm chart-monthly)

 

A big chance for most major currency will strongly rise against the THB

 

my opinion, i am not a guru, i only trade 30yr markets,at the moment or since the summer already i long EUR,AUD , i short USD/THB  and on equity, short SPXS , long GDXJ ,ZSIL . no longertm shareholdings and a lot of cash

 

a portfolio against major  trends and thinking of the majority

 

 

[Ventenio]

every time this happens, i tell people that the baht will get STRONGER and they all immediately predict a crash and back to 40 for one USD because that will make their life better.  But they ignore reality and simply google, "world economic crash Apocalypse baht crash market global crash crash crash" and then they spew nonsense.  

 

if the baht does go back up above 31 i might convert some to USD and lock in 5-years of making money.....but i see it going to 25 and 20 and 10 and 1.  lol.  

 

if you are retired, really properly retired.  then 1 million baht swing should not affect the rest of your life.  if you are one noodle soup away from living under a bridge, then maybe look for plan B instead of google searching.   

[murikamba]

14 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

if the baht does go back up above 31 i might convert some to USD and lock in 5-years of making money.....but i see it going to 25 and 20 and 10 and 1.  lol.  

It won't go to 10 or 1. That is a long way. May be 50 years. But it will go to 25/USD per currency traders' prediction. Convert as much as you can into BHT as soon as possible.

 

[murikamba]

45 minutes ago, lapamita said:

3. THB is in a bottom building phase, against most major currencys (longterm chart-monthly)

Where is this long-term chart? Can you post a link? I posted currency traders' predictions for BHT immediately above this post.

[lapamita]

34 minutes ago, murikamba said:

Where is this long-term chart? Can you post a link? I posted currency traders' predictions for BHT immediately above this post.

3. THB is in a bottom building phase, against most major currencys (longterm chart-monthly)

 

i write most major currency!!  if usd index fall  ( see first post, i expect a fall in usd index ), most major currency will rise against THB , excluded USD.

 

but even for the USD  , i see LT  a rise , but that would not be a major one,as long no big changes in econommy outlook or political stability

 

but good luck w your thb investif it is LT

 

sry no chart ,copyright, and other bu forum deleted charts ,all for that

 

[zydeco]

FYI, I've been warning about this even before the below post:

 

 

[Mavideol]

2 hours ago, murikamba said:

It won't go to 10 or 1. That is a long way. May be 50 years. But it will go to 25/USD per currency traders' prediction. Convert as much as you can into BHT as soon as possible.

 

if your chart is corrected than Prayut and the gang have to find alternatives to Thai exports as they economy will collapse... tourism & exports will come to a drastic drop, foreign investment will do the same, in other words, disaster in the making

[saengd]

3 hours ago, lapamita said:

and things like that , will repeat over time

 

A MAJOR CHANGE IN CURRENCYS UNDERWAY

 

everybody upbeat about USD and others, i see silver linning for other currencys, and i would not wonder if the usd index will start to fall over the comming years

 

1. Currencys related to raw materials ,  AUD,NOK --major reversal in longtermcharts ( monthly), after loos of almost 40% since 2011 ( 7yr trend major currencys)

Intercorelation NZD and SEK  in topping formatins longterm

 

2. The Euro could be the rising star for the next comming years, i do not want to tell the price traget, but its much higher than most can  imagine,longterm reversal will may hold until 2024

 

3. THB is in a bottom building phase, against most major currencys (longterm chart-monthly)

 

A big chance for most major currency will strongly rise against the THB

 

my opinion, i am not a guru, i only trade 30yr markets,at the moment or since the summer already i long EUR,AUD , i short USD/THB  and on equity, short SPXS , long GDXJ ,ZSIL . no longertm shareholdings and a lot of cash

 

a portfolio against major  trends and thinking of the majority

 

 

You trade currencies for 30 years and you don't know how to spell the word!

[saengd]

19 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

if your chart is corrected than Prayut and the gang have to find alternatives to Thai exports as they economy will collapse... tourism & exports will come to a drastic drop, foreign investment will do the same, in other words, disaster in the making

The chart is wildly incorrect, it merely takes today's value and extrapolates it over time but does not consider geo-political events that affect market values. The charting company responsible for those charts offer a service to business for long range planning purposes, the charts you see are nothing more than the starting point.

[Mavideol]

5 minutes ago, saengd said:

You trade currencies for 30 years and you don't know how to spell the word!

he didn't say that... he said that he only trade on 30 year market, thus long term speculative markets

[JackGats]

18 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

You should see a doctor mate, fever took over.

 

Thai labor highly valued?

 

Some of the worst education system.

 

Average salary 14k but that is official statistic believable as much as their 1.1% unemployment. Real median wage when including Isaan would be probably under 8000 a month. That is for 10 hours a day 6 days a week work you German Mark.

 

Or perhaps the slavery fishermen is highly valued?

At least with people like you to talk the Baht down the BOT and expats have nothing to worry about. We'll be at 50 Bahts to the dollar in no time.

[nauseus]

59 minutes ago, saengd said:

You trade currencies for 30 years and you don't know how to spell the word!

Not another police check!

[brokenbone]

thailand already signed the dotted line for big ticket purchase of military hardware, spending is over,

time to let the baht drop and make money.

this is standard practice