Will you change your behavior in anticipation of Coronavirus in Pattaya?

[bkk6060]

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I seriously doubt that. You've been leaving buses when groups of Chinese board before this? I find that very hard to believe. 

Uh no.

What buses are you talking about? I have a motorbike in town and take taxis alone for longer trips.

[bkk6060]

2 minutes ago, toofarnorth said:

Inspect the Hairy Clams before consuming too NCC.

That is actually a good point.

The popular BR or massage shop/Chiyaboom girls could be incubation.

[Curt1591]

No changes planned for me. Haven't been to Pattaya for over 20 years. No plans to ever return.

[RichardColeman]

I guess I'll have to take the wife from behind until things clear up - wouldn't want her sneezing on me midway through

[sanuk711]

On 1/26/2020 at 9:58 PM, FarFlungFalang said:

40,000 deaths each year on the roads

Wow........where did that figure come from FarFlung ?? your not thinking of America are you--they had nearly 40K. The last figures I saw for Thailand for 2019 (are only up to October--as there still coming in) was 11K----still makes them very bad drivers, only 12% of those deaths are car related. Not a lot of protection on those bikes.

 

Thailand road toll: 554 dead this month, 11,462 this year--https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thailand-road-toll-554-dead-this-month-11462-this-year

 

 

[DannyCarlton]

I will be avoiding all establishments that cater for mainland Chinese tourists. Easy for me as I hate Chinese food, never ride baht buses, don't do shopping malls, Walking Street, Bali Hai pier, never been inside King Power or the gem store on Pattaya Nua. I think that about covers it for me.

[steven100]

25 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

i have cancelled all my travel plans in Thailand until the virus thing dies down.

 

yes ...  i'm cutting back from my 4 daily trips to the massage shop 

[chrisinth]

On 1/26/2020 at 9:04 PM, bert bloggs said:

could this be the "one" nature has a way of culling a species when there are to many.

Possibly.

 

Just like SARS was in the early 2000's. Coronavirus, just another name for cyclic outbreaks that happen all the time.

 

Obviously it most certainly shouldn't be ignored, with prevention being upmost. WHO, caught between a rock and a hard place have to work on worst case scenarios, which naturally frighten people.

 

Personally, I will pay a lot more attention when fatality rates get anywhere near to influenza (the common flu) which pans out at being responsible, annually, to between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths. The scary one (one of three pandemics recorded) was the Spanish Influenza in 1918 which claimed 40-50 million lives.

 

And just for clarity, this is only the way I see it and it is recognized that other's outlooks will be different.................

 

[HHTel]

I wonder how much of the news coming out of China is Fake News.  An interesting report from Korea disputes much of the Chinese news, especially that which states the contagion is active even during the incubation period.

 

http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7289

 

The annual death rate in China is 7.11 per 1,000. That works out at 27,000 per day. 

106 people in China will die anyway in 5 mins 39 secs!

 

It should also be noticed that of the cases confirmed in Thailand, more than half have recovered and are either continuing their holiday or have gone home.

[richard_smith237]

It certainly gives room for thought and yes, some of out family behavior has changed. 
 

The kid down the road who goes to Singapore Int’l School has a cold (coughing & sneezing), I’ve stopped him playing at our house this week with my son as we are off on holiday on a Friday. 
 

The heightened media has alerted us to the risks of virus spread & I don’t want my son to contract a regular cold. 

I may have behaved the same way or not.

 

We will wear face masks on the plane, we should probably be doing that anyway. 
We’ve all been sick a few times before after picking something up from a flight. 

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, HHTel said:

I wonder how much of the news coming out of China is Fake News.  An interesting report from Korea disputes much of the Chinese news, especially that which states the contagion is active even during the incubation period.

 

http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7289

 

The annual death rate in China is 7.11 per 1,000. That works out at 27,000 per day. 

106 people in China will die anyway in 5 mins 39 secs!

 

It should also be noticed that of the cases confirmed in Thailand, more than half have recovered and are either continuing their holiday or have gone home.

Agreed, CDC estimates are that 646,000 people dis annually from regular flu anyway. 
 

Does this have a higher mortality & spread rate than regular flu? 

Edited January 28, 2020 by richard_smith237

[DannyCarlton]

9 minutes ago, chrisinth said:

Personally, I will pay a lot more attention when fatality rates get anywhere near to influenza (the common flu) which pans out at being responsible, annually, to between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths. The scary one (one of three pandemics recorded) was the Spanish Influenza in 1918 which claimed 40-50 million lives.

 

You need to examine deaths per infected person, otherwise your figures are meaningless. All inflenza strains are different, with different levels and media of contagion. also different levels of severity of symptoms. from what we already know, coronavirus has a long incubation period and a rapid contageon rate. Also the symptoms seem particularly severe.

[jimn]

I am going to start drinking Tiger beer

[chrisinth]

9 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

You need to examine deaths per infected person, otherwise your figures are meaningless. All inflenza strains are different, with different levels and media of contagion. also different levels of severity of symptoms. from what we already know, coronavirus has a long incubation period and a rapid contageon rate. Also the symptoms seem particularly severe.

Yes, agree, the fatality figures are based on between 3 & 5 million serious recorded infections a year.

 

There are 4 strains known, Types A, B, C & D, however type D is not known to infect humans. Each type can mutate. A brief description (copied from Wikipedia) as follows:

 

Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. About 20% of unvaccinated children and 10% of unvaccinated adults are infected each year. In the northern and southern parts of the world, outbreaks occur mainly in the winter, while around the equator, outbreaks may occur at any time of the year. Death occurs mostly in high risk groups—the young, the old, and those with other health problems.

 

Note: The extract from wikipedia cites unvaccinated figures above; I'm not sure if these vaccinations actually work. I get the flu shot every year (as it is part of the company's well-being programme) and still manage to occasionally come down with some strange illnesses that feel pretty much like flu to me.

 

Larger outbreaks known as pandemics are less frequent. In the 20th century, three influenza pandemics occurred: Spanish influenza in 1918 (40–50 million deaths), Asian influenza in 1957 (two million deaths), and Hong Kong influenza in 1968 (one million deaths). The World Health Organization declared an outbreak of a new type of influenza A/H1N1 to be a pandemic in June 2009. Influenza may also affect other animals, including pigs, horses, and birds.

[DannyCarlton]

38 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Does this have a higher mortality & spread rate than regular flu? 

Initial reports would suggest that it does.

[Beggar]

I will definitely change my behavior here in Pattaya. I will minimize my shopping. The first unpleasant experience was that I don't get any shopping bags anymore and on top of it have to bag everything myself. Yesterday I went to the Central Shopping Mall here in Pattaya and used a good mask from 3M. It was extremely hot under the mask. To cut a long story short - I will avoid shopping malls until this virus challenge is over. On a side note - in the meantime it seems to be impossible to get mask a here in Pattaya. I am happy that I bought many for construction some years ago - all 3M. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Beggar

[HHTel]

23 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

You need to examine deaths per infected person, otherwise your figures are meaningless. All inflenza strains are different, with different levels and media of contagion. also different levels of severity of symptoms. from what we already know, coronavirus has a long incubation period and a rapid contageon rate. Also the symptoms seem particularly severe.

The 'flu virus will infect millions across the globe and lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. It can be easily spread and will especially strike the young and the elderly. But this is not what has been described as the Wuhan virus. The common flu is far deadlier. 

 

The common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization.

 

The common flu does not grab the headlines. But attach a foreign name to a virus – such as Ebola, Zika and Wuhan – and then the headlines flow.

 

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, HHTel said:

The 'flu virus will infect millions across the globe and lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. It can be easily spread and will especially strike the young and the elderly. But this is not what has been described as the Wuhan virus. The common flu is far deadlier. 

 

The common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization.

 

The common flu does not grab the headlines. But attach a foreign name to a virus – such as Ebola, Zika and Wuhan – and then the headlines flow.

 

Source? Goes against everything we already know about coronavirus.

[HHTel]

2 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Source? Goes against everything we already know about coronavirus.

https://intpolicydigest.org/2020/01/27/flu-is-bigger-concern-but-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/

 

Also the following which is quoting the CDC in that the mortality is still below 3% to date and is believed to be overstated.

 

https://time.com/5772481/china-coronavirus-latest/

 

 

[nrasmussen]

On 1/27/2020 at 12:46 AM, mike787 said:

No.  Why. Because I already have a long time ago. Must adhere to health precautions/prevention.  Must take a "Protective" role in your health if quality of life is important.  THat means, protection, wear a mask for the pollution and airborne viruses. 

 

I'm curious - what mask are you wearing that protects against airborne viruses?

Edited January 28, 2020 by nrasmussen
Typo

[richard_smith237]

8 minutes ago, HHTel said:

36 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

You need to examine deaths per infected person, otherwise your figures are meaningless. All inflenza strains are different, with different levels and media of contagion. also different levels of severity of symptoms. from what we already know, coronavirus has a long incubation period and a rapid contageon rate. Also the symptoms seem particularly severe.

The 'flu virus will infect millions across the globe and lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. It can be easily spread and will especially strike the young and the elderly. But this is not what has been described as the Wuhan virus. The common flu is far deadlier. 

 

The common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization.

 

The common flu does not grab the headlines. But attach a foreign name to a virus – such as Ebola, Zika and Wuhan – and then the headlines flow.

Thats where the incubation period, mortality rate and transmission rate come into play. 

 

As Danny mentioned above - the most important information would be how this compares to regular flu. 

- Is there a higher mortality rate (amongst 3 categories, Elderly, Adults and Young) 

- Is there a higher transmission rate (can it be spread more easily?)

 

For example: Regular Influenza in the USA (CDC figures) 

5-17yr olds: Illness Rate 13986 per 100,000), Mortality rate 1.0 per 100,000

18-49yr olds: Illness Rate 10470 per 100,000), Mortality rate 2.0 per 100,000

50-64yr olds: Illness Rate 20881 per 100,000), Mortality rate 10.6 per 100,000

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

 

Those in the older bracket are 10x more likely to be killed by household influenza (in the US) than a child. 

 

To place this in comparison (maybe a poor comparison). 

USA Firearm deaths: 12.21 per 100,000 people (inhabitants) per year.

UK Firearm deaths: 0.23 per 100,000 people (inhabitants) per year.

Thailand Firearm deaths: 4.45 per 100,000 people (inhabitants) per year.

 

USA Road deaths: 12.4 per 100,000 people (inhabitants) per year.

UK Road deaths: 3.1 per 100,000 people (inhabitants) per year.

Thailand Road deaths: 32.7 per 100,000 people (inhabitants) per year.

 

 

What we want to know to place this illness in a realistic perspective is:

- Does this new strain of flu place us in graver risk than the regular flu?

- Does this new strain of flu place us in graver risk than other ‘risks’ in our home countries?

 

[BRUFC]

And Canute stopped the tide. Yeah, right.

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, nrasmussen said:

On 1/27/2020 at 12:46 AM, mike787 said:

No.  Why. Because I already have a long time ago. Must adhere to health precautions/prevention.  Must take a "Protective" role in your health if quality of life is important.  THat means, protection, wear a mask for the pollution and airborne viruses. 

 

I'm curious - what mask are you wearing that protects against airborne viruses?

 

The ones who’s designers recognize that virus are carried by aerosol which enlarges the virus size such that masks are an effective barrier. 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

Wow........where did that figure come from FarFlung ?? your not thinking of America are you--they had nearly 40K. The last figures I saw for Thailand for 2019 (are only up to October--as there still coming in) was 11K----still makes them very bad drivers, only 12% of those deaths are car related. Not a lot of protection on those bikes.

 

Thailand road toll: 554 dead this month, 11,462 this year--https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thailand-road-toll-554-dead-this-month-11462-this-year

 

 

I come to this figure with a careless extrapolation of the deaths at the scene figures oft quoted in the news stories here on TV coupled with excessive exaggeration for effect and in keeping with the general BS levels required for maximum clicks.My Bad! 

[nrasmussen]

4 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The ones who’s designers recognize that virus are carried by aerosol which enlarges the virus size such that masks are an effective barrier. 

 

 

Interesting. Do you have a reference to a specific model?

[CGW]

4 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

i have cancelled all my travel plans in Thailand until the virus thing dies down.

Going to be a great time to travel, no congestion, cheap hotels ???? Eyes open: No fear ...............

[mike787]

30 minutes ago, nrasmussen said:

 

I'm curious - what mask are you wearing that protects against airborne viruses?

N95 is Health care industry standard.  Google it.  Surgical masks only useful if you are infected with something already, because it does not create a barrier via a tight seal to skin.  Must FIT properly.  What does fit properly mean; ALL locations of the mask must have tight contact to skin.  No loose open areas.  You will pay a little more but it's an investment, otherwise do not bother. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by mike787

[Kalasin Jo]

No

[mike787]

22 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The ones who’s designers recognize that virus are carried by aerosol which enlarges the virus size such that masks are an effective barrier. 

 

 

N95 is the only Gold health care standard to trap/prevent the small virus size to penetrate. 

[Ebumbu]

I am adding additional amulets.