South Korean woman tests positive for coronavirus after Thailand visit

[rabas]

10 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Before seeing your comment above, I just did a separate thread on that exact same subject -- the removal from the latest government daily update report of all mention of what had been 405 potential cases awaiting lab results:

Sorry, I too just posted on the same before I saw your comment. I guess it's alarming to a lot of us.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, kamahele said:

So basically no one knows where she got infected is the story here. Yes she visited Thailand but maybe she has been to China and maybe she got it in Korea...

 

The BKK Post report today says she had NOT been to China... but they gave no source for that detail.

 

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That's the gist of it. Only fact is it's in Thailand and spreading.

We can count the number of tourists infected after they return home?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, rabas said:

Sorry, I too just posted on the same before I saw your comment. I guess it's alarming to a lot of us.

 

Unless it just turns out to be a one day aberration or mistake in their daily updates (which I doubt is the case), the change certainly would raise new questions about the credibility of their public reporting re the virus...

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

We can count the number of tourists infected after they return home?

Also hard, appx 14 day incubation and infectious during it. Each such carrier will start a new cell unless quarantined.

[Tayaout]

6 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I just had the most terrible thought enter into my Head.

What if, AND I REPEAT >>IF there were transmissions from this Country to some of the Indian Tourists and returning home.

Mind Boggling consequences.

There is already 3 cases in India and they declared a state of emergency. They also lost track of 2-3 Chineses from Wuhan who gave a fake address. 

[DLock]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The BKK Post report today says she had NOT been to China... but they gave no source for that detail.

 

Thailand needs to be careful here.

 

A few misteps to maximize tourist revenue from China, and a few more "contracted in Thailand" cases could see worldwide borders closed to all of us...

[Sunderland]

2 hours ago, smedly said:

I think people should be made aware of her movements 

 

authorities in Thailand should be retracing exactly what she did when and where

Also for the other 19 patients who entered/developed the virus inside Thailand. Sparse details on those.

[rabas]

Probably a good time to point out that all data curves on the official Chinese site (for confirmed, suspected, cured) jump up and down day by day as the situation changes, except the number of dead. The dead curve is a perfectly smooth mathematical fucntion, no doubt fudged on a computer by some official. https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

[DrTuner]

Just now, rabas said:

Probably a good time to point out that all data curves on the official Chinese site (for confirmed, suspected, cured) jump up and down day by day as the situation changes, except the number of dead. The dead curve is a perfectly smooth mathematical fucntion, no doubt fudged on a computer by some official. https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

The confirmed is also suspect, it's linear and not exponential. Likely hitting the limit of how many they can diagnose per day. The ones they don't manage to diagnose? I guess they are waiting in hospital lines. Is that the "suspected"?

[rabas]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Unless it just turns out to be a one day aberration or mistake in their daily updates (which I doubt is the case), the change certainly would raise new questions about the credibility of their public reporting re the virus...

 

 

... and we were already questioning the reporting yesterday.

[JohnnyBKK]

It should take no more than 24 hours to get the lab results, so we should know by now if those suspected cases are coronavirus or not in Thailand.

[stephenterry]

2 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That's the gist of it. Only fact is it's in Thailand and spreading.

About two weeks before the virus outbreak in China, I took my carer to hospital (government) because she had a flu-like virus. The scenario would have been ideal to transmit it had it been Coronavirus - there was a continual flow of hundreds of people throughout the 5 hours she waited to see a doctor. In the event he just gave her meds to take - no tests, zilch.   

 

Just one Coronavirus person could have infected dozens, and without anyone, including the med staff, would have known. This could have occurred already among the working class  - no offence - who would just have accepted what the doctor said, went back home and passed it on. 

 

Also, being a Thai government hospital there would be politics at play to ensure no blame could be attached. Easy hospital instructions from above - don't test patients with flu-like symptoms, just give them meds instead.   

 

[FarFlungFalang]

"Thailand has recorded 19 cases of coronavirus. Of the Thai patients, eight have recovered and gone home while 11 are still under treatment in hospitals."

This is a quote from the "cocktail" thread so the cases in Thailand would be 11 not nineteen at the time of the article,if the number of cases is still nineteen or any number greater than 11 then that would obviously mean more human to human transmissions in Thailand.Well maybe not if more cases arrived that were diagnosed that were already infected before arrival in Thailand and if they were already infected then the whole plane load of passengers could have been infected.You can let your mind run wild about the scenarios of how many infections might be possible like I said like catching smoke with your hands.It might be fun but pretty useless.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

Just one Coronavirus person could have infected dozens, and without anyone, including the med staff, would have known.

In rural Thailand that one person will likely be the doctor. Skin to skin contact.

[SkyFax]

18 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The other telling number is they're still officially reporting that 350 people who started out as coronavirus "patients under investigation" remained hospitalized in Thailand as of yesterday...

 

After subtracting the 11 of 19 official virus cases still in hospital, what they're NOT telling, is why those other 339 people are still in hospitals, how many have had final lab tests, and what those lab tests showed.

 

So you think zero 'Severe Cases' in the 3FEB MOPH is not a telling number?

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, SkyFax said:

So you think zero 'Severe Cases' in the 3FEB MOPH is not a telling number?

The air is so healthy here you instantly start feeling better.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

So you think zero 'Severe Cases' in the 3FEB MOPH is not a telling number?

 

And you think 339 people hospitalized as coronavirus "patients under investigation" other than the 11 publicly confirmed cases still in hospital is not a telling number...

 

Not to mention, the 23 people among those who are still listed as being in "isolation" status.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

The confirmed is also suspect, it's linear and not exponential. Likely hitting the limit of how many they can diagnose per day. The ones they don't manage to diagnose? I guess they are waiting in hospital lines. Is that the "suspected"?

 

Lots of reports of sick people being turned away from overflowing hospitals in the China impact areas, and having to go home and sometimes dying there. Along with, reports of some sick people simply being locked in their homes by the authorities.

 

Those and others, never will make it onto the coronavirus official government stats coming from China.

 

[Monomial]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

They are withholding the diagnoses or simply unable to do them. 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

The pending diagnosis cases rises every day, at almost the same rate as persons under investigation.

 

EDIT: A-ha, in the latest report they have deleted the part with the number of pending diagnoses completely. In the previous it was 405. Just how blatant can you get?

 

The numbers for Feb. 3 also look a bit suspicious. If you check through the history, pretty much every day they are getting a few new cases from airport screenings, and anywhere from 50-100 people reporting to hospitals with suspicious flu like symptoms. Then yesterday, there are only 7 additional people visiting a hospital, and zero new cases as a result of airport screenings.

 

Patients under investigation

• Feb 3     -     492
• Feb 2     -     485
• Feb 1     -     382
• Jan 31    -     344
• Jan 30   -     280
• Jan 29   -     202
• Jan 28   -     156

 

Could mean a few things. Most likely, they have changed the criteria for patients under investigation. This in my opinion is the most probable explanation for the abrupt change, although they really should spell out exactly what they changed and why they changed it in the report. The other possible explanations are 1) that all the halted airline flights reduced travel to the point where a statistical zero is likely, and that people are suddenly not reporting to hospitals with flu like symptoms, or 2) that they have completely erradicated the virus in Thailand and thus stopped the growth of new cases dead in its tracks.

 

I think 1) is very unlikely, simply because the two conditions are independent, and the likelihood that both conditions occurred simulataneously is hard to believe. 2) is also unlikely, given that they have just started treating this condition, and there has not been enough time for any action to be effective.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Monomial

[SkyNets]

Imagine if it got into the Thai prison system

[1duckyboy]

Her passport says what countries she visited and where ever she spent the night in Thailand will have been reported to the government by the hotel, guesthouse, etc. Airbnb is another matter. 

[SkyFax]

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

14 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

So you think zero 'Severe Cases' in the 3FEB MOPH is not a telling number?

 

And you think 339 people hospitalized as coronavirus "patients under investigation" other than the 11 publicly confirmed cases still in hospital is not a telling number...

 

Not to mention, the 23 people among those who are still listed as being in "isolation" status.

 

I just wanted to know why you chose to omit that Severe Case number as a 'telling" number.

[mberbae]

This is what will happen with Thailand's lax oversight of the Coronavirus. A Korean has now come down with it. Maybe next a Japanese, an Australian - and soon Thailand will be Off Limits to a lot of other countries since their citizens are not safe here either.

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, SkyNets said:

Imagine if it got into the Thai prison system

Or a large factory or any other place with lots of people milling around in confined space. Plenty of those in these parts.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

I just wanted to know why you chose to omit that Severe Case number as a 'telling" number.

 

Because the MoPH has never explained in their reports just what they mean by "severe" case...

 

But at least when they tell you they've put people into isolation, it means there's a real risk of them spreading something nasty other than the common seasonal flu.

 

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Really???  I thought everything was 100% under control!  

Just as the bird flue a 17 years ago…. by mouth of the politicians only...

[jasonsamui55]

2 hours ago, Monomial said:

Expect every country that put quarantine measures in effect to China to now add Thailand to the list of countries disallowed for travel. Looks as if the Thai government just signed their own death warrants with respect to tourism. It is now going to be Chinese and Thai entry bans.

 

I couldn’t agree more!

[outsider]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

I think people should be made aware of her movements 

 

authorities in Thailand should be retracing exactly what she did when and where

 

They should, but it's a a tough ask, given that the 'authorities in Thailand' don't know their right hand from the left. 'Bumbling' is the word I'd use. 

 

[thequietman]

1 hour ago, CGW said:

True but they could provide details of where she had been. 

But, maybe she was using a one-2-one sim!  ????