Coronavirus cases outside China 'could be spark' for bigger fire, WHO says

[webfact]

Coronavirus cases outside China 'could be spark' for bigger fire, WHO says

By Shivani Singh and Stephanie Nebehay

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects the novel coronavirus prevention and control work at Anhuali Community in Beijing, China, February 10, 2020. Xinhua via REUTERS

 

BEIJING/GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization said on Monday the spread of coronavirus cases among people who have not been to China could be "the spark that becomes a bigger fire" and the human race must not let the epidemic get out of control.

 

As of 0500 GMT on Monday, there had been 40,235 confirmed cases reported in China and 909 deaths, as well as 319 cases in 24 other countries, including one death, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

 

The death toll from the epidemic had jumped by 97 on Sunday - the largest number in a single day since the virus was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December.

 

The Diamond Princess cruise ship with 3,700 passengers and crew on board remained quarantined in the Japanese port of Yokohama, with 65 more cases detected, taking the number of confirmed case from the Carnival Corp-owned <CCL.N> vessel to 135.

 

In Europe, shares in car companies <.SXAP> exposed to China slumped, while prices of oil, iron ore and copper fell on worries over weaker Chinese demand because of the outbreak.

 

British Airways canceled all its flights to mainland China until the end of March.

 

Across mainland China, where people were trickling back to work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday, 3,062 new infections were confirmed on Sunday, according to the National Health Commission.

 

Wu Fan, vice-dean of Shanghai Fudan University Medical school, said there was hope of a turning point in the outbreak. But Ghebreyesus said there had been "concerning instances" of transmission from people who had not been to China.

 

"It could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire," Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva. "But for now it is only a spark. Our objective remains containment. Graphic: Comparing new coronavirus to SARS and MERS - https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS-COMPARISON/0100B5BY3CY/index.html

 

"We should really fight hard as one human race to fight this virus before it gets out of control," he said.

 

An advance team of international WHO experts arrived in China to investigate.

 

"This mission brings together the best of Chinese science, Chinese public health with the best of the world's public health", the WHO's Mike Ryan said.

 

The death toll from the outbreak has now surpassed that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed hundreds worldwide in 2002/2003.

 

NERVOUS COMMUTERS

Chinese cities have become virtual ghost towns after Communist Party rulers ordered lockdowns, canceled flights and closed factories and schools.

 

Ten extra days had been added to the Lunar New Year holidays that had been due to finish at the end of January. But even on Monday, many workplaces remained closed as people worked from home.

 

Few commuters braved the morning rush-hour on one of Beijing's busiest subway lines. All wore masks.

 

One Beijing government official, Zhang Gewho, said it would be harder to curb the spread of the virus as people returned to work.

 

"The capacity of communities and flow of people will greatly increase and the difficulty," he said.

 

Hubei, the province of 60 million people that is the hardest hit by the outbreak, remains in virtual lockdown, with its train stations and airports shut and roads sealed.

 

In Britain, the government said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases there had doubled to eight. It declared the virus a serious and imminent threat, giving it additional powers to isolate those suspected of being infected.

 

China's central bank has taken steps to support the economy, including reducing interest rates and flushing the market with liquidity, and will also now provide special funds for banks to lend to businesses.

 

President Xi Jinping said the government would prevent large-scale layoffs, Chinese state television reported.

 

Xi was shown on television inspecting the work of community leaders in Beijing and wearing a mask as he had his temperature taken. He said China would strive to meet economic and social targets for the year.

 

One senior economist has said growth may slow to 5% or less in the first quarter.

 

More than 300 Chinese firms including Meituan Dianping <3690.HK>, China's largest food delivery company, and smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp <1810.HK> were seeking loans totaling at least 57.4 billion yuan ($8.2 billion), banking sources said.

 

E-commerce firm Alibaba <BABA.N> said its affiliate, Ant Financial's MYBank unit, would offer 20 billion yuan ($2.86 billion) in loans to companies in China, with preferential terms for Hubei firms.

 

Apple's biggest iPhone maker, Foxconn, won approval to resume production in the eastern central Chinese city of Zhengzhou, but only 10% of the workforce managed to return, a source said. It won approval to resume partial production in the southern city of Shenzhen from Tuesday.

 

A prolonged and widespread coronavirus outbreak could hit the Japanese economy, affecting tourism, retail and exports, an International Monetary Fund official said. Canada said the outbreak will hit tourism and the oil industry.

 

(Additional reporting by Sophie Yu, Ryan Woo, Huizhong Wu, Liangping Gao, Stella Qiu, Colin Qian, Brenda Goh in Beijing, Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva, Joyce Lee and Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Kylie MacLellan and Kate Kelland in London; Writing by Lincoln Feast, Robert Birsel, Nick Macfie and Giles Elgood; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Timothy Heritage)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-11

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[Scott]

I vaguely remember that after the SARS scare was over, I read something that said the death rate was disproportionately higher among Chinese.   I believe the infection rate was higher as well.   This was about people in Canada who were infected.

 

It seems that when exposed, Chinese were more likely to actually catch the virus and more likely to die than were other ethnic groups.   I don't know if that was explored further to determine if it was true for specifically Chinese or whether it was broader and included other Asian groups.  

 

This corona virus has been in a number of other countries and it has not caught hold anywhere near the way it has in China and although there are precautions being taken, most infectious diseases sneak through better than this one has.  

 

Considering the extreme measures that China has taken and the continued spread in China, I wonder if, as an ethnic group, the Chinese are more susceptible to the virus?

 

 

 

[Forethat]

6 minutes ago, Scott said:

I vaguely remember that after the SARS scare was over, I read something that said the death rate was disproportionately higher among Chinese.   I believe the infection rate was higher as well.   This was about people in Canada who were infected.

 

It seems that when exposed, Chinese were more likely to actually catch the virus and more likely to die than were other ethnic groups.   I don't know if that was explored further to determine if it was true for specifically Chinese or whether it was broader and included other Asian groups.  

 

This corona virus has been in a number of other countries and it has not caught hold anywhere near the way it has in China and although there are precautions being taken, most infectious diseases sneak through better than this one has.  

 

Considering the extreme measures that China has taken and the continued spread in China, I wonder if, as an ethnic group, the Chinese are more susceptible to the virus?

 

 

 

Correct.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19590927

Edited February 10, 2020 by Forethat
Wrong link

[Scott]

There is another idea about the virus and why it is spreading there and not so much in other places.   It has to do with weather:

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-wuhan-virus-vaccine-12389694

 

[Salerno]

43 minutes ago, Scott said:

I don't know if that was explored further to determine if it was true for specifically Chinese or whether it was broader and included other Asian groups. 

There was a video posted on another thread in the past few days about this that had a rolling list of ethnicity from highest to lowest at risk. From memory Chinese at the top followed by other Asians (Japanese maybe 2nd) so it looks like they lucked out with corona viruses. A sad tangential outcome of this is, IMO, it gives bigots/racists something to twist into their narrative.

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

As of 0500 GMT on Monday, there had been 40,235 confirmed cases reported in China and 909 deaths,

I think that the realistic amongst us believe that Chinese data is about as likely as the reliability of a Thai amulet for road safety !

 

[Forethat]

26 minutes ago, Salerno said:

There was a video posted on another thread in the past few days about this that had a rolling list of ethnicity from highest to lowest at risk. From memory Chinese at the top followed by other Asians (Japanese maybe 2nd) so it looks like they lucked out with corona viruses. A sad tangential outcome of this is, IMO, it gives bigots/racists something to twist into their narrative.

"The perfect storm", if you ask me.

[Antonymous]

Should investigate the link between air pollution, respiratory diseases and corona virus. Just check out the usual levels of pollution experienced in the province at the epicentre.

[Laza 45]

50 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

Should investigate the link between air pollution, respiratory diseases and corona virus. Just check out the usual levels of pollution experienced in the province at the epicentre.

...the people most at risk are those whose respiratory system is compromised.. so little doubt that there is a correlation between pollution and susceptibility to the virus..

[tifino]

8 minutes ago, Laza 45 said:

1 hour ago, Antonymous said:

Should investigate the link between air pollution, respiratory diseases and corona virus. Just check out the usual levels of pollution experienced in the province at the epicentre.

...the people most at risk are those whose respiratory system is compromised.. so little doubt that there is a correlation between pollution and susceptibility to the virus..

yes... because it's not the Virus itself that killing, but the Secondary opportune conditions that arise from the combination.

   I contracted Industrial Asthma, medically proven to be caused by the environmental condition I was in at the time (25 years back)  If I now cop a simple Sinusitus, I am hospitalised... If I cop a standard  contemporay Flu, I am over 3 months getting over the effects - twice involved development into Pneumonia 

 

Immunity to current medication treatment, through long term consistent application of antibiotics for even what the average person does not need - becomes a real problem for those with impaired lungs 

[Tayaout]

Thailand has now refused permission for a cruise ship to stop in Bangkok. I guess there was no Chinese on board. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-thailand-cruiseship-idUSKBN20503T

[Proboscis]

5 hours ago, Forethat said:

Correct.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19590927

Actually incorrect. While SARS may have been more infectious among a particular ethnic group, such as the Chinese, it does not follow that another virus, whether of the same structure or different, would behave in the same manner. There is currently no empirical evidence to suggest otherwise.

[stevenl]

5 hours ago, Scott said:

I vaguely remember that after the SARS scare was over, I read something that said the death rate was disproportionately higher among Chinese.   I believe the infection rate was higher as well.   This was about people in Canada who were infected.

 

It seems that when exposed, Chinese were more likely to actually catch the virus and more likely to die than were other ethnic groups.   I don't know if that was explored further to determine if it was true for specifically Chinese or whether it was broader and included other Asian groups.  

 

This corona virus has been in a number of other countries and it has not caught hold anywhere near the way it has in China and although there are precautions being taken, most infectious diseases sneak through better than this one has.  

 

Considering the extreme measures that China has taken and the continued spread in China, I wonder if, as an ethnic group, the Chinese are more susceptible to the virus?

 

 

 

I think the main issue is respiratory issues in China due to air pollution and cigarette smoking. Regarding the latter, look at the difference between men and women in both smoking and death rate.

[JHolmesJr]

Chinese customs of communal eating also contribute.

Sitting around in large groups...sticking chopsticks into

common seeing dishes is a boon for a virus like this.

I presume all that has stopped...altho one family

got it after sharing a communal steamboat meal.

 

 

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, Tayaout said:

Thailand has now refused permission for a cruise ship to stop in Bangkok. I guess there was no Chinese on board. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-thailand-cruiseship-idUSKBN20503T

Actually, there are a lot of Chinese aboard. Problem is that there were farangs too lol. 

[DannyCarlton]

15 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Actually, there are a lot of Chinese aboard. Problem is that there were farangs too lol. 

Mainly Dutch*. Orders of ai Anutin himself. Why? Didn't say (never ask why in Thailand). Still no bar on Chinese entering the country. Clearly part of ai Anutin's "all ferangs have horns and a tail" policy which translates to "Farangs have brains and I don't which causes me a severe loss of face. Send them all home, I don't want anyone to hear what they have to say as they make me look really, really ai stupid". Surprised that ai Anutin hasn't tried to have this forum closed down.....or has he?

 

* "Thailand has refused permission for passengers from Holland America’s cruise ship MS Westerdam to disembark, its health minister said" Reuters.

Edited February 11, 2020 by DannyCarlton

[Scott]

32 minutes ago, stevenl said:

I think the main issue is respiratory issues in China due to air pollution and cigarette smoking. Regarding the latter, look at the difference between men and women in both smoking and death rate.

Anything that weakens the respiratory system would certainly not help, however, the difference between ethnic groups getting SARS and dying was in Canada.   I don't know if the Canadian Chinese have a significantly different rate of smoking than the general population.  

 

[stevenl]

7 minutes ago, Scott said:

Anything that weakens the respiratory system would certainly not help, however, the difference between ethnic groups getting SARS and dying was in Canada.   I don't know if the Canadian Chinese have a significantly different rate of smoking than the general population.  

 

Neither do I. But interesting.

[Scott]

1 minute ago, stevenl said:

Neither do I. But interesting.

Smokers are always at a greater risk for contagious diseases.   The simple act of smoking means your hands are going to be touching your lips and with that everything that your hands have touched.  

[DrTuner]

6 hours ago, Scott said:

There is another idea about the virus and why it is spreading there and not so much in other places.   It has to do with weather:

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-wuhan-virus-vaccine-12389694

 

Yes, it's a factor: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

 

Quote

Two potential surrogates were evaluated in this study; transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) were used to determine effects of AT and RH on the survival of coronaviruses on stainless steel. At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, Scott said:

Considering the extreme measures that China has taken and the continued spread in China, I wonder if, as an ethnic group, the Chinese are more susceptible to the virus?

Would not be surprising. The Chinese people and bats have been living in the same region for centuries. Viruses adapt to the conditions. 

[DrTuner]

5 hours ago, car720 said:

For anyone who has lived in China the answer is glaringly obvious.  Every time that someone has even the sniffles, the doctors and pharmacies dish out antibiotics by the fistful with no real regard for effect.  I believe that the collective Chinese immune system is shot to hell and gone.

Same in Thailand. Bag of amoxy and paracetamol and off you go.

[metisdead]

Posts containing unattributed content have been removed.  Please include a valid link to the source of information when posting:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

[DannyCarlton]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

Actually, there are a lot of Chinese aboard.

Link please. Found several links identifying Western passengers, none referencing Chinese passengers.

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, stevenl said:

I think the main issue is respiratory issues in China due to air pollution and cigarette smoking. Regarding the latter, look at the difference between men and women in both smoking and death rate.

A landmark study was published in The Lancet on 30 January (click to see) that explored the Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan. 

 

Among other vitally important data and findings, this study provided a scoring system to predict how likely mortality would be, based on the clinical features of the infected patient (smoking was certainly one of clinical features).  The ranking is called MuLBSTA Score.

 

The clinical features and assigned scores were:

• Both lungs involved - 5 points
• Lymphocytes < 0.8 - 4 points
• Bacterial co-infection - 4 points
• Active Smoker - 3 points
• Former Smoker - 2 points
• Hypertension - 2 points
• Age > 60 - 2 points

Total Score and Mortality Rate:

• A score of 0 indicates chance of mortality at 0.47%
• A score of 6 was 2.9% chance of mortality
• A score of 12 was 15% chance of mortality
• A score  22 points was chance of mortality greater than 69%

 

BTW, for those who are not aware, The Lancet is considered to be the preeminent, and one of the most trusted sources of peer-reviewed medical studies and information in the world.  If it appears in The Lancet, you can be assured you are not getting fake or misleading information.  Don't rely on all the nonsense floating around on mass media and the internet!

 

Also...for anyone not certain of just how n-CoV causes death, in almost all cases it is a result of the virus attacking the lower respiratory tract causing Pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS).

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

39 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

...Total Score and Mortality Rate:

• A score of 0 indicates chance of mortality at 0.47%
• A score of 6 was 2.9% chance of mortality
• A score of 12 was 15% chance of mortality
• A score  22 points was chance of mortality greater than 69% ...

Sorry but I made a typo in previous post.  "Total Score and Mortality Rate" should read, "Total Score and Chance of Mortality

Edited February 11, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Haecksler]

2 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

Mainly Dutch*. Orders of ai Anutin himself. Why? Didn't say (never ask why in Thailand). Still no bar on Chinese entering the country. Clearly part of ai Anutin's "all ferangs have horns and a tail" policy which translates to "Farangs have brains and I don't which causes me a severe loss of face. Send them all home, I don't want anyone to hear what they have to say as they make me look really, really ai stupid". Surprised that ai Anutin hasn't tried to have this forum closed down.....or has he?

 

* "Thailand has refused permission for passengers from Holland America’s cruise ship MS Westerdam to disembark, its health minister said" Reuters.

Hi might be more desperate abut the thought that the infection rate will increase after the passengers return on board. ????

[Haecksler]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, it's a factor: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

 

 

A successful kill of microorganism is granted @ 60°C over more days.

I think UV radiation might be more the reason of less patience in Thailand as many activities are outside. In Singapore probaply more people are doing activities inside.

Just a theory.

secondly a study provided that the protein Ace2 which the damn virus needs to connect and is located deep in the lungs is found more in lungs of smokers. The theory is applied on Chinese as allegedly 41% of smokers are male.

[rudi49jr]

But Trump, the White House Oracle, just said that the virus will be gone by April. And he is never wrong and always tells the truth, so there is nothing to worry about!

[Forethat]

3 hours ago, Proboscis said:

Actually incorrect. While SARS may have been more infectious among a particular ethnic group, such as the Chinese, it does not follow that another virus, whether of the same structure or different, would behave in the same manner. There is currently no empirical evidence to suggest otherwise.

To clarify: I confirmed the notion that there is scientific evidence that particular genes were associated with susceptibility for SARS-coronavirus. Nothing else.