Are you really ready for two years of this?

[david555]

2 minutes ago, drbeach said:

I've read plenty of articles about where this could be going or should I say...where they want society to go. However, I seriously doubt anyone is going to accept an 18-24 month lock down. The entire world's economy would collapse, permanently.

 

While westerners like some of the posters on here may be obedient, trust me, Thais are not going to sit tight for anywhere near that long. If the rebellion at the airport where 100 Thais refused to be quarantined is any guide, make no mistake, an uprising would occur at the latest in 2-3 months and sooner, if food runs out. The authorities don't have the resources to contain the activities of such a large population; they're in the minority.

 

I give this whole thing 1-2 more months and then it will all be over.

Not really be over , but relaxed again ...as they can not keep this  long time ,same rumors already from western country's

[david555]

3 minutes ago, drbeach said:

67 sqm is a coffin as far as I'm concerned. Far too small to be comfortable.

hence the stay inside the 67sqm is needed …. advised to survive 

[malibukid]

20 years ago definitely not.  but thanks to the internet i have access to a world of entertainment and information

[Why Me]

Heck, they're even back to climbing Everest:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52157968

 

Expect a happy ending within two months. In the meantime, like my favorite happy end provider told me, leelak.

[Why Me]

Just now, malibukid said:

20 years ago definitely not.  but thanks to the internet i have access to a world of entertainment and information

Exactly. YouTube, Netflix, porn, games, heck, I am not sure when this is over I'll even want to go out.

[findlay13]

11 hours ago, Dexlowe said:

I'm in NZ right now - perhaps a good place to be to wait out this plague. But I'm separated from my daughter, and I miss her badly. Not being able to jump on a plane at any time and go up there is taking time to sink in. I miss my little home up there, and I miss my relaxed lifestyle and all the things I have become used to over the decades. For all its faults, Thailand was home for 30 years, and it's not easy to just suddenly push that aside. If this goes on for another couple of years, I might be a raving lunatic by the time I can go back.

I'm in the same boat stuck in Australia.Which as you say may be a good thing ATM but I was due to return to Thailand on the 20th .Now the question is the 20th of when? it's been 20+ years for me since I started alternating between here and Thailand.I'm missing my lady and my 2 dogs, even the neighbours I have there are good.All we can do is wait unfortunately.

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by findlay13

[malibukid]

we are the last of human kind.  this is the beginning of the end. we asked for this, the smug waring destructive apes that we really are.  one positive is that the planet can heal now.  we are the virus

Edited April 4, 2020 by malibukid

[Why Me]

An extreme nuisance are the masks. Now don't get me wrong. I understand their need from a health point of view.

 

But, dammit, they are denying us guys in these trying times the simple pleasure of dwelling on a pretty face. It's happened to me more than once recently that my eyes find a nice pair of legs, move up to dainty hips, then a colorful blouse promising what it hides and then, bang, a freakin' ugly green mask.

 

How difficult would it be too invent transparent ones?

[Destiny1990]

Oh so the 24 hours lock down wasn’t  long enough to beat the virus gosh what a surprise. 

[JRG23]

47 minutes ago, Why Me said:

I wouldn't worry too much. Look at China. They're limping back to normal after 3 months of draconian measures. Yea, yea, I get they lie but their factories are opening which is visible to the naked eye. And, forget which business paper, I saw their output numbers were surprisingly good given the shutdown, which indicates a fast bounce back, a good portent for other economies.

 

So, I would say a couple more months, give or take, and most countries will have flattened the curve to the point that they say X infection/death rate is tolerable and go about business as usual.

 

Sure there will still be hotspots popping up here and there but as long as the general population curve is flat enough, hospitals will be able to cope with localized events.

 

In any case, I am learning to eat drink and be merry within exactly 67 sq. m.

 

 

 

 

One of the most sensible quotes in this thread.

[john69]

11 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

Are you volunteering if the respirators run out?

[mauGR1]

1 hour ago, Monomial said:

Those of you who are retired with guaranteed monthly incomes have absolutely no concept of how bad it is already. People are already growing extremely angry and are not going to accept this for long.  So it definitely won't continue like this for months.

How long will the western governments be able to pay pensions if there are no taxes paid to the governments ?

Guaranteed monthly incomes may be not that certain in the future.

[bkkcanuck8]

10 hours ago, Sambotte said:

I am not. I wonder if people are so sheep they would accept this for... ever. 

 

To bet on a vaccine sound crazy to me. Not sure one will be ok, not sure it will work enough, and pretty sure like for Flu it will not work long term.

Treatment look as much uncertain.

 

Gouvernements, if i get it correctly, with medical experts, want to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. Would be ugly.

But economics sick is not exactly a long term solution either.

And well i hope people are still majoritarely alive, and would not accept such a lockdown for ever.

 

So i would say 2 options :

- Let nature process. Ugly but relatively short, and we can live again.

- Fear-lockdown : what the point to "survive" like that ?... Not to mention it's not THE plague, but ONE pandemy like we know there will be. Not to mention all the others causes of deaths / sickness, but accepted "in hospitals only".

- A mix, most probable, to slow down, but again for years and repeat ? 

 

What really scares me with this virus thing, is not the virus.

Current estimates for a vaccine are about 18 months from general availability (Chinese could do it shorter since they would have no qualms about using prisoners as guinea pigs bypassing staged testing and doing it in parallel).  This of course would not be available in the middle of the pandemic unless it is slowed considerably.  The goal really is to slow the infection rate to as low as possible (hopefully lower than peak medical capability).  It would take longer to build up herd immunity due to being infected all at once but would have a much lower mortality rate (along with much lower potential disability from non-lethal infections).   Those that were infected, would have the immunity and as the numbers grew over time it would affect the R0 (infection rate), they would also be able to resume a more normal life.   Any R0 (infection rate) of less than one will mean the infection will decrease over time.  If the R0 now is 2 (and no social distancing) and population were 50% immune - it would drop to 1.  With social distancing it would drop to less than one.   The vaccine would be the icing on the cake as it would increase herd immunity as well -- leading to the virus no longer being a threat.  The health professionals believe for the most part a mix is the best solution... it won't be for years... as people will continue to be infected... and the overall percentage of people immune will grow over time... lowering the infection rate... basically eventually starving it to death (most likely worst case scenario - 3 waves).

 

Basically, what is being asked of us is really a short period of time of inconvenience and hardship for the greater good.  It is not like the flu virus, so it will eventually not become an issue. 

 

Letting nature progress naturally would of course work, you would have a much higher mortality rate, and a large number of 'survivors' would need longer rehabilitation or life long medical support (higher cost).  They typically publish mortality numbers, but there are other costs that are flying beneath the radar right now because everyone is focused on the mortality rate.

[bkkcanuck8]

16 minutes ago, john69 said:

Are you volunteering if the respirators run out?

We could always allow those that want volunteer to sign a waiver saying they waive all future medical needs.  Basically a do not treat waiver.  Maybe a volunteer to be infected waiver as well so we know they won't transmit the virus once they have recovered ???? They would become like superheros ...

Edited April 4, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, jak2002003 said:

Don't forget all the family and people returning to your village to thier family homes as they are all out of work.  How is everyone there going to have money for food or essentials after a few months of lock down or curfew?   

My village is a gated middle class community in SanSai.

I'm visibly the poorest person living here.

Edited April 4, 2020 by BritManToo

[Dap]

11 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

Unless of course it was you dying.

[Why Me]

8 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Current estimates for a vaccine are about 18 months from general availability

My guess is that they will find an efficacious treatment regime long before. Right now they are throwing everything at this to see what sticks and there are a few drug combinations already showing promise. If I am not mistaken the validation trials for a drug are much shorter than for a vaccine, especially if they are derivatives of known ones.

[Stevemercer]

Maybe governments will have to accept a threshold number of new daily cases (which are within the capacity of the country's medical system to effectively treat and minimise deaths).

 

Hospitals will obviously properly gear up to routinely treat cases within the next month or two (provided there is not a sudden spike in numbers).

 

Treatments will get more effective over time with experience. If hospitals are working within capacity, tr and there is no need to make life or death choices.  

 

So what is a sustainable threshold of new daily cases? I'm sure the calculations have been done. For countries like Thailand and Australia it might be 100 a day (and assuming a fatality rate <1%). If these thresholds (whatever they are) are met than governments can progressively ease restrictions with a view to getting the domestic economy back on track.

 

But full freedom of international travel will not resume until there is an effective vaccine.

[Muzzique]

2 hours ago, Ventenio said:

If you met me in person, I would say there will be medicine in about a month

May sure you take it

[tomauasia]

12 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

To a degree

[david555]

57 minutes ago, john69 said:

Are you volunteering if the respirators run out?

volunteering shall have its limits too at one moment anyway 

[Brunolem]

Keep in mind that the world is ruled by money, not by people.

 

Politicians are elected by money and stay in power with money.

 

For example, if Americans are not back to work by September, Trump is toast, whatever he does or says.

 

So it seems likely that, at some point, not that far away, the big countries will come up with some reason to reopen, like China is currently doing, damn the consequences.

 

With the help of the media, they will focus on something else than the virus.

 

Thailand for its part is a follower, not a leader, and will do what the others will do, with a little twist here and there.

 

Economically, this can't go on for 2 years, or even 1 year...the destruction is already massive after only a couple of months...

 

[Brunolem]

38 minutes ago, Dap said:

Unless of course it was you dying.

You are already accepting the possibility of death by a multitude of more likely illnesses, starting with cancer.

 

Why would you want to make a special case for the coronavirus?

[rech]

13 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I think it's obvious by now that the hopes and promises of this virus situation ending in a month or two are extremely unlikely. Not only in Thailand, but globally.

 

it took 3 months to China and you think that it will take a year here ? ridiculous.

[rech]

Just now, Brunolem said:

You are already accepting the possibility of death by a multitude of more likely illnesses, starting with cancer.

 

Why would you want to make a special case for the coronavirus?

 

Totally agree ! locking the world for 1 millions death maybe maximum is so idiot.

 

[dluek]

Here's my take:

 

Vaccine might not end up being the way out. Think of flu shots; you need them every year and even then it's not a 100% fail safe like some vaccines. 

 

I think mass testing will ultimately be the way out of this. The world needs to develop billions of tests that can be administered quickly and reliably, and then each country needs to go around to every home and test EVERYONE. Then all who tests positive are placed in actual quarantine facilities (not at home) for a month. Six months of this and the virus would be so suppressed that it will pretty much disappear on its own. 

 

I think Thailand will expand testing to South Korea levels within the next 3 months. So here's a timeline:

 

3-6 months: Thailand and some other countries can return to some type of normalcy. People will still wear masks and there will still be travel restrictions from countries that don't have it under control. But state of emergency will be lifted and at least things will start to feel somewhat normal again. 

 

2-3 years: The virus is no longer a serious threat in most countries either due to mass suppression via testing and quarantine and/or or a mass-administered vaccine. 

 

5-10 years: The global economy starts to look like something like what it was pre-pandemic. Economic destruction will be the longest lasting and potentially the most damaging effect of the pandemic. We could be in for a global depression / global economic collapse. Eventually the world will rebound, but it will not happen quickly and the global economy will not look the same when it does. 

[sirineou]

So much misinformation I don't know where to start.

First some say "accept the death rate and go on with no restrictions" . The number of deaths  is  because of restrictions, what do you think the number of deaths  would be if there were no restrictions?? The Medical system is overwhelmed now, what would happen to it then? How about other diseases and conditions ? do we abandon them and just work on CoronaVirus? 

We need to resolve this to move one, no country or economy  can "move on" while it citizens are dropping dead!!! To think so is IDIOTIC.

 An effective treatment will be developed relatively soon. An inoculation will be developed,  Both don't need to be 100% effective,only need to bring the  infection rate below 1:1. 

exponential growth works in both directions, diminishing number of hosts will break the back of this virus. 

I am trying to keep this short, so that people will read it' There is a lot more to be said but.

I am an optimist, and I am  a pragmatist also,  This thing will be for the most part resolved by the end of the summer, and we will be stronger for it, because I hope enough of as have learned that 'Business as Usual" is no longer viable.  

 

Stay safe until such time. 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by sirineou

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, sirineou said:

 

First some say "accept the death rate and go on with no restrictions" . The number of deaths  is  because of restrictions, what do you think the number of deaths  would be if there were no restrictions?? 

 

The countries with the strictest restrictions (Italy, France, Spain) are those showing the worst results, by far...how come?

 

Other countries, notably in East Asia, have gotten much better results with less restrictions...go figure...

 

[sirineou]

Just now, Brunolem said:

The countries with the strictest restrictions (Italy, France, Spain) are those showing the worst results, by far...how come?

 

Other countries, notably in East Asia, have gotten much better results with less restrictions...go figure...

 

Countries that eat a lot of pasta also have the most infections, 

[XB12X]

That newspaper article was certainly good for selling copy. Completely ignores the fact that hydroxychloroquine is being used in China and Korea to good effect and that factories are opening up again in China. Yes, we all know China lies but this can be seen.