Thailand reports 51 new coronavirus cases, three more deaths

[beammeup]

10 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Very funny but not true I have 2 friends who got it and both have not kissed anybody in Years

Well sorry to hear about your friends, I hope they survived the virus.

[White Christmas13]

Just now, beammeup said:

Well sorry to hear about your friends, I hope they survived the virus.

I hope so too but they both are in the 70ths

[berrec]

9 hours ago, darksidedog said:

You have to treat this as good news. Yes, I know there are probably more cases out there, but from the perspective that the government has been saying it would only ramp up restrictions if the figures got worse, we can at least hope for some sense of normality to return, as opposed to things getting tighter.

Sorry to rain on these feel good numbers but as of the latest reporting stats the Thai testing rate is 359 per million for a total of 25,071 tests for a population of some 70 million people.

 

You can equate this to testing of approx. 0.042% of the population.

 

In short the numbers have little validity of trends until the testing per million reaches significant levels that brings some credibility to the real state of play.

 

BTW this testing requirement is never going to happen in Thailand for the obvious reasons of medical infrastructure availability and qualified personnel, available testing resources, cost of testing, remoteness of people and attitude of Thais.

[darksidedog]

4 minutes ago, berrec said:

Sorry to rain on these feel good numbers but as of the latest reporting stats the Thai testing rate is 359 per million for a total of 25,071 tests for a population of some 70 million people.

 

You can equate this to testing of approx. 0.042% of the population.

 

In short the numbers have little validity of trends until the testing per million reaches significant levels that brings some credibility to the real state of play.

 

BTW this testing requirement is never going to happen in Thailand for the obvious reasons of medical infrastructure availability and qualified personnel, available testing resources, cost of testing, remoteness of people and attitude of Thais.

Interesting one to answer, as you both agree and disagree with me and then contradict yourself.

I never said the numbers should be treated as accurate, only that the daily "reported" numbers were good news in relation to further infringements on personal freedoms and liberties.

Insufficient testing is a given, and I did say there were most likely more cases out there.

And you also agree that the required level of testing isn't going to happen, meaning that the high numbers needed to justify a full on lock-down are unlikely to be met.

So, I will take these "feel good" numbers for the time being, given they represent better news than this time yesterday, or any day in the last week or so.

 

[joecoolfrog]

37 minutes ago, beammeup said:

So why would they lie? It might damage the tourist industry?

They may or may not be lying , the fact is that if you conduct relatively few tests , you will only get a limited number of confirmed cases.

A better question would be why so few tests , deliberate policy or simply ill prepared ?

Edited April 6, 2020 by joecoolfrog

[joecoolfrog]

3 minutes ago, darksidedog said:

Interesting one to answer, as you both agree and disagree with me and then contradict yourself.

I never said the numbers should be treated as accurate, only that the daily "reported" numbers were good news in relation to further infringements on personal freedoms and liberties.

Insufficient testing is a given, and I did say there were most likely more cases out there.

And you also agree that the required level of testing isn't going to happen, meaning that the high numbers needed to justify a full on lock-down are unlikely to be met.

So, I will take these "feel good" numbers for the time being, given they represent better news than this time yesterday, or any day in the last week or so.

 

In relation to the measures in place currently and their future effectiveness, I think these low figures are actually bad news.

If you look at the UK or the US , it is stressed that the reported figures are just the tip of the iceberg.

People need to be convinced how serious the problem is , scared if you will , low official figures will just breed complacency and non compliance.

 

[Stargeezr]

Thirteen cases were medical people, and some say that is good news?

  I am sad when I hear of anyone in the front lines dying, guess some posters

do not think the same. Whay a callous world we live in.

Geezer

[meshborg]

You lot been living Thailand too long.Horse manure fed to gullible farmfolk.

[Hockeybik]

9 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Yes. That's what I think. I think people are not being tested. So, many people are likely dying with the death being attributed to other causes. That's my assumption based on so few tests being done and the unbelievably low number of infected people reported so far. I would very, very, very much like to see the death statistics (for all attributed causes) for Thailand by month for the last four months to compare to the prior year. Anyone know where that can be found?

Good point, I couldn't find any up to date stats on overall deaths in Thailand but those numbers will become available. Maybe someone with better search skills than mine can find them. The US just crossed over 10k deaths attributed to corona virus with over 300,000 infected. Italy is 16,000 with 132,000, Spain 13,000 dead with 136,000 infected. Each have varying testing ratios. To see the numbers you are suggesting, 5,000-10,000 dead in Thailand, we would be seeing beds in the streets, don't you think? My original point was that the numbers are no doubt low but they can't be that low. If as you suggest they are several hundred times higher, the number of cases severe enough to be hospitalized would also be several hundred times higher and that would be difficult to hide. 10x higher, 20x maybe, but 300x higher, I kind of doubt it. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Hockeybik]

7 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

In relation to the measures in place currently and their future effectiveness, I think these low figures are actually bad news.

If you look at the UK or the US , it is stressed that the reported figures are just the tip of the iceberg.

People need to be convinced how serious the problem is , scared if you will , low official figures will just breed complacency and non compliance.

 

The test numbers in Thailand are low but people would be sick even if the cause of their sickness was unknown. So if there are 26 deaths and 1,800 +/- active cases being reported (total cases minus recovered) how many more are there? I'm thinking that if there were maybe 10x more or 20x more, maybe that would be unnoticed locally and blend into "normal" numbers nationally but if it were 100's of times more, that news would be leaking out. Everyone that is really sick is not staying home and dying  to be planted out in the rice paddy. Deaths get reported. Seriously ill people go somewhere, to the clinic, to the hospital and anecdotally we are not hearing that. Where is the evidence of overcrowded hospitals and morgues overflowing? --- I should add that low test numbers miss those who have no symptoms or are not severe enough to go to the hospital and then don't get worse and they recover. Those numbers are not being captured in any country. People generally are not getting tested unless they have reason to be.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Hockeybik

[metisdead]

A post with a link to a pseudo-science conspiracy site has been removed. 

[Hockeybik]

19 hours ago, Guderian said:

Based on even the steady +/- 100 new cases per day figure, there wasn't much justification for the latest threats to ramp up the curfew and various other measures, if we get a few days at the 50 level then there'll be even less. I'm guessing the authorities are in headless chicken mode, as they are in a number of countries, and simply want to be seen to be doing something, anything. As somebody said recently in the UK government, they're basically damned whatever they do. If they turn the screws further on self-isolation then they'll be accused of going overboard if it works and numbers start to decline, while they'll also be accused of not doing enough if it doesn't work and numbers continue to increase. Who'd want to be a politician at the moment?

One possible reason is that the mass exodus from Bangkok to up-country took place about 2 weeks ago so the numbers could tick up significantly when those cases incubate, maybe? That will be seen in the next few days of numbers. The more likely reason is as you say "gotta do something". 

[michaeltheR]

I really wonder why office businesses are still open while restaurants, barber shops etc have been order to shut down?

[hotchilli]

19 hours ago, darksidedog said:

but from the perspective that the government has been saying it would only ramp up restrictions if the figures got worse, we can at least hope for some sense of normality to return, as opposed to things getting tighter.

I understand what you're saying, but with the low and now seemingly falling numbers with very few deaths I don't understand why the hint of a longer/stronger curfew and the order to turn military camps into field hospitals?

Something doesn't add up. 

[Farmerkev]

22 hours ago, darksidedog said:

The figures are those collated yesterday up to midnight.

You can find updates on every country, with data on number of tests, cases, fatality rate etc. here: https://coronawiki.org/

and here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is true in the most part, however, thailand posts their numbers somewhere between 11am and 2pm thai time

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I understand what you're saying, but with the low and now seemingly falling numbers with very few deaths I don't understand why the hint of a longer/stronger curfew and the order to turn military camps into field hospitals?

Something doesn't add up. 

You are absolutely correct, something does not add up, and you wonder why as there is a lack of clarity to inform everyone about the true numbers, or if they even have them, and why they seem to be in panic mode......

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, Hockeybik said:

One possible reason is that the mass exodus from Bangkok to up-country took place about 2 weeks ago so the numbers could tick up significantly when those cases incubate, maybe? That will be seen in the next few days of numbers. The more likely reason is as you say "gotta do something". 

I agree with this very wholeheartedly.  We are in a small lag period, should see what shakes out in the coming days.  This is also in my personal opinion why we are hearing about the government preparing additional steps......but then my opinion is that of only me, myself and I.  

[metisdead]

A post with a link to Bangkok Post has been removed:

 

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