rabang Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Senior Player said: According to the latest ongoing research from Germany, it's looking increasingly likely that Europe is getting closer to herd immunity than previously thought, which is now figured to be between 60% to 70% of the population. Again, research is constantly being updated and news is incredibly fast moving, so this could change again. However, the current German research is based upon their findings from a controlled number of a populated town of Gangelt in Heisberg that has already had the virus and didn't show any symptoms or awareness that they'd had it, who had tested positive for anti-bodies anyway. That was 15% of the town's population that had already had covid-19 but had zero to minor symptoms compared to the other 4% that had severe symptoms. Simply put, it's believed that anything as high as 50% of the overall population in Germany could've already had covid-19 asymptomatically and now have anti-bodies. The current thinking is that the fatality rate is now 0.37% and not the high numbers that were originally thought before. Again, this controlled population test is also being carried out in Italy and the UK. Of course, the alternative to hoping that the German research is wrong and that we'll all be in permanent lockdown, whether it be on-and-off, until a successful vaccine is produced. By then, I'm afraid, every economy in the world will be trashed beyond repair. Let's hope the Germans are right on this one. We'll find out more when the Italians and UK amalgamate their findings with Germany. If you want to read more about the research carried out in Gangelt, Germany, then you'll have to go to the Daily Telegraph who has the report. I read about that too. Unfortunately the message seems to be very mixed because I also read that in Austria it is believed that only a minuscule portion of the population has had corona or is resistant to it. I would be very surprised if international travel will fully resume earlier than in 5 or 6 months from now. I am personally preparing myself with the idea that I will not be able to travel before next year. I hope I am wrong but with different countries being in different stages this could drag on for a long time even if some countries lessen restrictions. But in that case I would rather see at least country specific limitations than global restrictions. Edited April 10, 2020 by rabang 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartender100 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 In my crystal ball, i see a time when where ever you travel, unless you have the vaccination certificate you won't be yet in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chelseafan Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 On 4/9/2020 at 8:49 PM, Southy65 said: I'm in the same boat, on the 25th of March my wife (who is a thai citizen) and I flew back to Thailand from South Africa after visiting our family before leaving we make contact with the Thai embassy in Pretoria and after getting all the necessary documents and tests we get on the plane, when arriving in Thailand they informed us that she may enter but I must go back to South Africa because no foreigners may enter. After a flying already for 16 hours I must sit and wait another 13 hours for a flight back to South Africa and just land in time some hours to spare before lockdown. So at this moment I have a longstay visa till December but when will I be reunited with my wife and daughter. My life my everything is there in Thailand. So please keep me up to date Thankyou Ditto. My wife is stuck in Issan and I'm in the UK. I was supposed to be with her now working on a visa to visit the UK but I very much doubt I'll be seeing her before July or possibly longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBZ Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Sounds good. Maybe I will move to Pine and live there for a while. I am bored in Thailand and restless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBZ Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I have been to the Philippines once. Can't say I am too impressed with the food there. But I really want to get out and travel now. You can only sit on your ass and do nothing at your hotel for so long. By the way, are they going to stop you if you drive across provinces in Thailand now? I live in Sa Kaeo. It seems to be ok to drive to neighboring province and come back. We were checked once for Corona virus check at province border and they let us go but they asked Thais to show ID and register something. I do not like to be stopped by police at a foreign country. I heard they you do not get stopped by police as much in other SE Asia countries. Hope it is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cornishcarlos Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 9 hours ago, ross163103 said: I hear all the people wanting to leave Thailand to go home--and I understand that, but I'm the opposite, I want back in. Guess it will be quite some time........ Me too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1FinickyOne Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/10/2020 at 2:19 AM, FritsSikkink said: Not realistic at all, as my daughter school messaged yesterday that they won't open before the first of July. I think this is a sign that there will be no changes before then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcon Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/10/2020 at 2:49 AM, Southy65 said: I'm in the same boat, on the 25th of March my wife (who is a thai citizen) and I flew back to Thailand from South Africa after visiting our family before leaving we make contact with the Thai embassy in Pretoria and after getting all the necessary documents and tests we get on the plane, when arriving in Thailand they informed us that she may enter but I must go back to South Africa because no foreigners may enter. After a flying already for 16 hours I must sit and wait another 13 hours for a flight back to South Africa and just land in time some hours to spare before lockdown. So at this moment I have a longstay visa till December but when will I be reunited with my wife and daughter. My life my everything is there in Thailand. So please keep me up to date Thankyou I hope that, for you and your families sake at least, that things move quickly and that the borders become at least semi-open so that you can join the family again. It’s very difficult to be away from family, let alone to be forced to be away from them through no fault of your own. My wife and son here are the only family I have so I know the heartache that that would bring me if this were to happen to me so again, I wish you all the very best of luck in the world to getting back together again very shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moontang Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I was thinking Sept/october would be ok for me to leave bkk and visit the States, but I have serious doubts about it being easy to get back in with just a reentry permit on my O-A extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorecard Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/10/2020 at 3:59 AM, gearbox said: The "free from covid19" medical certificate is very hard to obtain, short of impossible in many countries. This may change if new inexpensive test kits are developed, but who knows what's the time frame for this. I see the number of foreigners living permanently in Thailand droping lower and lower, as once you get out, it is now very difficult go to back. And sooner or later many people would need to get out for variety of reasons. Seems to me the need for medical certificates etc., might well continue for a while and on-check abroad to fly to the LOS would be very careful to see all the possibly needed documents, they don't want passengers to arrive in Thailand and be refused entry and then the airline is forced to fly them back to the departure point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moontang Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, scorecard said: Seems to me the need for medical certificates etc., might well continue for a while and on-check abroad to fly to the LOS would be very careful to see all the possibly needed documents, they don't want passengers to arrive in Thailand and be refused entry and then the airline is forced to fly them back to the departure point. They started making travellers sign documents stating they would be responsible for return costs, if they were denied entry for any reason. They had already taken many rejects home, well before this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrasmussen Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 8 hours ago, JohnBZ said: I have been to the Philippines once. Can't say I am too impressed with the food there. But I really want to get out and travel now. You can only sit on your ass and do nothing at your hotel for so long. By the way, are they going to stop you if you drive across provinces in Thailand now? I live in Sa Kaeo. It seems to be ok to drive to neighboring province and come back. We were checked once for Corona virus check at province border and they let us go but they asked Thais to show ID and register something. I do not like to be stopped by police at a foreign country. I heard they you do not get stopped by police as much in other SE Asia countries. Hope it is true. It depends on the province. Some will let you in and out, others will not. Which ones doing what changes frequently, so unless you want to risk getting stuck somewhere, probably best to stay put for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazinoz Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 16 hours ago, Senior Player said: I disagree about a covid-19 certificate that shows you haven't got the virus. Surely it's going to be the other way around, as in a certificate that shows that you have the necessary anti-bodies required to fight the virus having already caught covid-19 that is going to allow you to travel more freely? The only problem with an anti-bodies certificate is scientists still have no idea how long your immunity system will last to combat the virus. The theory is 18 months. It could be shorter, it could be longer. The research is still ongoing. The only real solution is for a proper vaccine to be discovered and distributed worldwide. A little off topic but I think relevant to your point. I moved here 7 years ago and brought my young dog from Australia. Things haven't gone to plan for me so I want to return to Oz. Late last year I started the process to send my dog back. The big thing for Australia is Rabies. She had to be tested for Rabies antibodies in a lab overseas (her blood serum sent there), could not be done here in Thailand. Then there is a minimum of 180 days after the test, assuming it was adequate, before she could enter Australia and that can not be direct from Thailand. The route I was taking she would spend 60 days in Malaysia, 15 of which in quarantine and then another 10 days in quarantine in Melbourne before she could be released. Rabies, rabies vaccination and antibody testing has been around a long time so is well known. My point is to support what you are saying about testing. Who knows we could end up being tested like for rabies to travel to certain countries. Not too far fetched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoshowJones Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 22 hours ago, bkk6060 said: They definitely should not allow any Chinese here until they get rid of those bat and animal markets. The big wigs will need the Chinese here as soon as possible to maintain their income stream as they have already chased away a lot of western tourists and expats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy cow cm Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 It will be Chinese people and some Asians in, all others stay out. Don't expect to get back in here very soon or easily if you are a Westerner. I myself have no plans on doing any outside travel as in the beginning of March I just skinned by a trip to the Philippines and then when back a few days in Pattaya before all the cards started to fall. Good luck to the ones who have family here and are forced to stay away. I could not take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natway09 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Make yourself comfortable where you are. I certainly hope that they do not open up restrictions (which I fear the US Boss wants to do ) too soon or we could end up worse than we are now. This could be the next world's mistake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorecard Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/10/2020 at 4:25 AM, ChouDoufu said: how would that work? re-entry permit usually expires along with the visa/extension, right? so if we're outside thailand and both our extension of stay and re-entry permit expire, we'll be given up to 12 months after expiration of both to return? and hopefully no heartache at immigration to do a renewal within one year of expiration? no need to start over as long as we can provide the standard documents? Not sure about this, my understanding is that the re-entry extension up to one year to return is specific to permanent residents, but maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expat1010 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I would think that by end of October 2020 they will open up in order to capture the start of the major tourist season. I think by then they will waive the insurance and med certificate requirement. but just my best guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimn Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 20 hours ago, lamyai3 said: I suspect as time goes on, a reliable and cheap covid-19 certificate will be increasingly easy to obtain, and the two week quarantine rules will be relaxed. I doubt if it will be in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewsterbudgen Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I expect the borders to open up again, maybe with some restrictions, by the end of April or early May. Schools are due to open on 1 July and International Schools have been told they can open earlier, with some restrictions. The State of Emergency decree will end at the end of April, so things should start relaxing after that. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerox Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I expect them to relax step by step starting in May for economic reasons. Will be interesting which country opens up first and which will be the most clever route to Thailand. Already some flights scheduled from Europe to Thailand starting April 30, arriving May 1st. I guess the restrictions with insurance and corona test could be there for a few months more. I still do not know how to get that test. Maybe it is easier to fly to another SEA country, which opens to, do the test there - private hospitals will take money and do it I guess compared to Europe where they tell me politely to f*** off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerox Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Lots of doom&gloom here. But yes, I am aware restrictions might be still heavy in May. So the truth when we can come back might be somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Lifeon Posted April 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 11, 2020 Im stuck In Mongolia...they closed the borders in Feb...haven't seen the wife and kids since then thanks to Social Media can talk once a month, could be here until December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropposurfer Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 No way to know this ....... Pick a date out of the air .... nobody knows when not even the govt's. making these decisions on dates in the future. Everything is changeable, shifting, it depends on infection and death rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecoolfrog Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 12 hours ago, kenk24 said: I think this is a sign that there will be no changes before then... I agree ,also the Thai government's 5,000 baht pledges run until end of June so dont see restrictions being eased before then. Air travel likely to be restricted and spasmodic for most of the year I reckon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Teavee Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 6 hours ago, moontang said: I was thinking Sept/october would be ok for me to leave bkk and visit the States, but I have serious doubts about it being easy to get back in with just a reentry permit on my O-A extension. As a minimum on a Non O-A extension you'll need Thai approved health insurance but that was in place before all the additional restrictions/requirements around Covid-19 came into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussieroaming Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Haven't seen my wife since January, we are also FIFO people. She came back for a visit in January and since then we have been apart due to this virus. Seems like maybe June or July we might see each other, all going well. I'd love to be back in Thailand but we might (will leave if I have my way) leave after this. I've got at least 1.5 m US$ tied up in Thailand, but after being cut out as a foreigner I'm good to tell Thailand to take a well deserved hike. I want to take my wife somewhere else where we can be together and also be accepted to live together. I didnt want to put Thailand at risk, but I also wanted Thailand to support my wife and I, and I dont mean financially, just as a couple. We have never asked anyone for a cent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearbox Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said: As a minimum on a Non O-A extension you'll need Thai approved health insurance but that was in place before all the additional restrictions/requirements around Covid-19 came into play. Quite a few of the O-A approved policies won't cut it for the coronavirus requirements. The requirement was a coverage of $100K USD, for example with Pacific Cross you would need the Maxima plan as a minimum, with coverage 5 million baht. The yearly policy cost is 48k baht for 42 years old, 68k for 56 yo, 113k for 68 yo. That's probably without any existing conditions. You can qualify for O-A with a policy with less coverage twice cheaper. One would think a travel insurance covering covid19 may be the way to go, but try to get a new policy now...many providers just stopped issuing TI completely. World Nomads stopped issuing new travel insurance policies on 1st of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moontang Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 44 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said: As a minimum on a Non O-A extension you'll need Thai approved health insurance but that was in place before all the additional restrictions/requirements around Covid-19 came into play. Already have it, and my agent already confirmed I am covered for COVID-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerox Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 What is "Thai approved health insurance"? The requirements before mentioned health insurance with 100k USD cover. Which I have with AXA international health insurance covered up to 1.275.000 EUR. I prepared a written confirmation by them too that Corona is covered. I am however worried about the quarantine. It is a waste of time if I have to go to some hotel and a huge waste of money. Esp. for people who leave Thailand regularly - how are we going to pay 100 USD for a "nice IO approved hotel" + "hotel food" for 14 days? Every entry to Thailand 1400 USD. Great. Corona certificate - difficult in Europe for me now. But I think easier in countries like Philippines which might open up first. Pay some money in a private hospital, they should be happy to do the test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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