Putting this in perspective for Thailand

[kingstonkid]

I know there are a lot of people that think the government is under reporting but here are the world numbers and comparison.

Thailand

Deaths  46

Death/1m pop  .7

New deaths 3

tests   100,498

confirmed cases  2672

confirmed case fatality rate  1.72%

comfirmed cases /1m pop  38.5

seasonal Flu deaths 2017   24419

 

 

 

Fo those that want to see the report <deleted>

Edited April 16, 2020 by blackcab
Incorrect link removed. You linked to your Gmail inbox

[aldriglikvid]

Bless you sir, but you can not link to an email in your Inbox. 

[AyaanJoe]

Gosh, you ARE gullible. These numbers are based on whatever is reported by the officials in Thailand. Rest assured, the real numbers are a lot higher than what you are made to believe.

 

Good day.

[Sharp]

The main perpective is after all the 'hooplar' from the media <deleted> regarding projections,models,forcasts from so called experts and with many asymptomatic persons never being counted the virus deaths WILL end up similar too or less than normal Flu.   

[supdog]

I guess we will find out by how many less cell phone users there are when all is said and done, china only has 21,000,000 less lol.

[allanos]

My belief is that deaths from Covid-19 are being OVER-reported, though I can't put my finger on why governments would want to do this.  It seems that ANYONE who dies who has even a small amount of the virus in their cells, is being cited as a death from the novel coronavirus.  The authorities seem to be ignoring death from other causes.  And, as we all know, seasonal influenza kills more people annually than Covid-19 is actually doing.  So why the hype? Why the hysteria and massaging of the statistics?  It's anyone's guess!

[Bangkok Barry]

18 hours ago, AyaanJoe said:

Gosh, you ARE gullible. These numbers are based on whatever is reported by the officials in Thailand. Rest assured, the real numbers are a lot higher than what you are made to believe.

 

Good day.

Okay. Try these figures, as of now:

Covi 19 cases: 2,192,597

Deaths: 147,376

World population: 7,580,000,000

 

Someone smarter than me can work out the percentage of cases and the percentage of deaths out of the world's population. But whatever that tiny, tiny figure is, it is enough to put hundreds of millions out of work, destroy countless business, drive who knows how many to suicide (especially in poorer countries - which is most - where people live financially day-to-day) etc

 

 

[Max69xl]

Loads of people died from pneumonia in Feb-March but not one death were officially connected to the Coronavirus. Go figure. 

[chessman]

3 hours ago, allanos said:

My belief is that deaths from Covid-19 are being OVER-reported

Many good reasons to think they are being under-reported. Currently, the right wing press in the USA are looking at ways to help Trump and casting doubts on the number of deaths is one way.

 

Historically, the number of people dying due to a virus is under-reported at the time.

[chessman]

21 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Okay. Try these figures, as of now:

Covi 19 cases: 2,192,597

Deaths: 147,376

World population: 7,580,000,000

It's a contagious disease and the number of cases and deaths increase exponentially. Looking at the current number is pointless.

[richard_smith237]

43 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Okay. Try these figures, as of now:

Covi 19 cases: 2,192,597

Deaths: 147,376

World population: 7,580,000,000

 

Someone smarter than me can work out the percentage of cases and the percentage of deaths out of the world's population. But whatever that tiny, tiny figure is, it is enough to put hundreds of millions out of work, destroy countless business, drive who knows how many to suicide (especially in poorer countries - which is most - where people live financially day-to-day) etc

 

 

 

To work your numbers: 

 

2,192,579 people have Covid-19. That is 0.029% of the worlds population

147,376 people have *died with Covid-19. That is 0.0019% of the worlds population. 

147,376 people have *died with Covid-19. That is 6.72% of the total number (2,192,579) Covid-19 cases. 

*died with Covid-19, which may not necessarily mean died because of Covid-19 (discussion for another topic)

 

Its quite probable that the numbers of people with Covid-19 is far greater. 

Its also quite probable that the numbers of people who have died as a direct consequence of contracting Covid-19 is far less (i.e. a man with Covid-19 has died after being eaten by an alligator - I’m sure my point here is clear enough). 

 

I’m sure we are seeing a significant distortion of the numbers due to the manner in which the data is collected and reported. 

 

It has been reported that the CFR for Covid-19 could be as low as 0.1% (and not the 2-6% we are currently seeing based on the numbers).

If we have a similar 10-21% infection rate to that of the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu outbreak with a 0.1% CFR the numbers are 0.76 to 1.6 million deaths world wide - Thats IF the CFR is as low as 0.1% 

 

Of course to keep the CFR as low as possible medical facilities have to be available. 

 

I wonder what the difference in CFR is with and without access to medical families (i.e ICU facilities and ventilators) because as soon as medical facilities are overloaded the CFR may well shoot up. 

 

 

Thus: IF the numbers of those needing specialised medical attention is maintained below the health care capacity the CFR is as low as it possibly can, social distancing and isolation may already be working.

 

We will never know the true success of social isolation. We can only measure against the fragmenting potential which is millions of lives which could have been saved. 

 

The only question is: Are a million lives worth the impact to the economy?

 

The CFR is unknown at this point, but if it is 1%, using the above figures: Are 10 million lives worth the impact to the economy?

 

To place this 1% FCR into perspective: 9.6 Million people each year die of cancer.

IF that number could be prevented, would it be worth taking the current isolation measures to prevent these deaths?

 

 

 

[CFR = Case Fatality Rate]

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by richard_smith237

[jesimps]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

Many good reasons to think they are being under-reported. Currently, the right wing press in the USA are looking at ways to help Trump and casting doubts on the number of deaths is one way.

 

Historically, the number of people dying due to a virus is under-reported at the time.

I was wondering when someone was going to blame Donald Trump and his many millions of supporters for the virus. Xi Jinping would be very pleased to read your post.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, jesimps said:

I was wondering when someone was going to blame Donald Trump and his many millions of supporters for the virus. Xi Jinping would be very pleased to read your post.

Not blaming Trump at all, perhaps you should read my post again. What I am saying is perfectly true. Other countries don’t have news outlets trying to minimise the number of people dying. Perhaps you should ask yourself why that is happening in the USA but nowhere else.

[UbonThani]

22 hours ago, AyaanJoe said:

Gosh, you ARE gullible. These numbers are based on whatever is reported by the officials in Thailand. Rest assured, the real numbers are a lot higher than what you are made to believe.

 

Good day.

Show proof then

[Iron Tongue]

4 hours ago, chessman said:

Not blaming Trump at all, perhaps you should read my post again. What I am saying is perfectly true. Other countries don’t have news outlets trying to minimise the number of people dying. Perhaps you should ask yourself why that is happening in the USA but nowhere else.

Ahem... Chinese news, Thai news, North Korean news, Russian news, Iranian news, Turkmenistan news...

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Iron Tongue said:

Ahem... Chinese news, Thai news, North Korean news, Russian news, Iranian news, Turkmenistan news...

Perhaps I should have said, nowhere else with a free press.

[ukrules]

There have been a couple of early antibody sampling studies that suggest far more people have already had a COVID infection than previously thought.

 

An article published on April 17 about a study carried out by Stanford University School of Medicine suggests that COVID infections are 50 to 85 times higher than recorded based on antibody testing.

 

The article which speaks about the Stanford study is here, it also mentions another study with similar results : https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/stanford-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-more-widespread-than-realised

 

Link to full published study : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

 

Quote

The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

 

There will no doubt be many more studies like this.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by ukrules

[UbonThani]

13 hours ago, chessman said:

Many good reasons to think they are being under-reported. Currently, the right wing press in the USA are looking at ways to help Trump and casting doubts on the number of deaths is one way.

 

Historically, the number of people dying due to a virus is under-reported at the time.

Wrong the lefties just added 4000 fake ones

[UbonThani]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

There have been a couple of early antibody sampling studies that suggest far more people have already had a COVID infection than previously thought.

 

An article published on April 17 about a study carried out by Stanford University School of Medicine suggests that COVID infections are 50 to 85 times higher than recorded based on antibody testing.

 

The article which speaks about the Stanford study is here, it also mentions another study with similar results : https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/stanford-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-more-widespread-than-realised

 

Link to full published study : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

 

 

There will no doubt be many more studies like this.

 

Which means it started long ago not in November.

[sandyf]

On 4/16/2020 at 9:51 PM, AyaanJoe said:

Gosh, you ARE gullible. These numbers are based on whatever is reported by the officials in Thailand. Rest assured, the real numbers are a lot higher than what you are made to believe.

 

Thailand may well be understating information as a result of their limited testing capacity but what change has there been in the normal mortality rate.

Without that figure your assumption has no basis.

 

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

[CharlieH]

Conspiracy theory posts removed.

 

 

[chessman]

6 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Wrong the lefties just added 4000 fake ones

The problem is that you just say the thing that fits your political agenda. You completely dismiss ‘academic’ thinking but here it would really help you. Anybody who looked at how deaths of viruses have been historically reported or looked at places where comparative death data between this year and previous years is available or read about the difficulty of getting tests when people die showing COVID symptoms in non-hospital settings would conclude that deaths are likely being under reported. I am not 100% sure, I just read about the evidence and think there is a very strong chance. If you don’t value rational thinking or evidence based judgements and would prefer to make gut decisions based on your political instinct then fair enough but you will end up being wrong most of the time.

[UbonThani]

34 minutes ago, chessman said:

The problem is that you just say the thing that fits your political agenda. You completely dismiss ‘academic’ thinking but here it would really help you. Anybody who looked at how deaths of viruses have been historically reported or looked at places where comparative death data between this year and previous years is available or read about the difficulty of getting tests when people die showing COVID symptoms in non-hospital settings would conclude that deaths are likely being under reported. I am not 100% sure, I just read about the evidence and think there is a very strong chance. If you don’t value rational thinking or evidence based judgements and would prefer to make gut decisions based on your political instinct then fair enough but you will end up being wrong most of the time.

Wrong. I care about science. Not bogus deaths.

[chessman]

13 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

I care about science.

People who care about science don’t get their talking points from Fox News.

[kingstonkid]

22 hours ago, chessman said:

People who care about science don’t get their talking points from Fox News.

 

OP

 

People who care about science get their talking points from the briefings and from the CDC.

 

The one thing that can not be fudged is the number of deaths.  All U.S. hospitals have to report to the CDC.  The CDC must release that information.

 

The left have denigrated TRUMP's actions the one thing they have not been able to disprove is the data that is being issued.

 

The fact that people that take Hydroxychloroquine and come out and tell the world that is works is not FOX NEWS.

.

 

One of the things I learned when I was growing up is that in any argument or discussion there is usually 3 sides to the discussion.  

 

In this case it is what the left says is one side.  What the right says is one side and the other side is what really is happening.

 

Who you believe is up to you BUT the only true answer is the facts.  

 

Are the numbers of people affected by Covid 19 lower than they should be.  Yes, not because of any great cover up but the fact that a lot of people will or have gotten it and not reported because it was mild or they just thought it was a mild case of the flu.

 

Are more people dying than are reported.  Until someone shows me a different number that can be verified then i have to go with what is presented.

 

Why is the number possibly low in Thailand besides the population is the fact that we have this aversion to the smog and air pollution so before we even knew what was happening a a lot of people were wearing  face masks. 

 

[chessman]

3 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

Are more people dying than are reported.  Until someone shows me a different number that can be verified then i have to go with what is presented.

The currently reported death toll is very likely to be a big underestimation.
 

Already in Italy you can compare overall deaths in March 2019 and March 2020. The overall deaths in Northern Italy in March 2020 are much higher than overall deaths in March 2019 plus reported Covid 19 deaths.

 

Funerals in Jakarta jumped by 40% in March 2020. The small number of reported Covid -19 deaths in Indonesia cannot explain this jump.

 

most importantly

 

during the swine flu pandemic of 2009/10 the ‘official’ total of deaths is much lower than most experts believe. Studies that looked at death data and patterns showed that the real number of deaths was likely several times higher than that official total. This makes sense.

[chessman]

3 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

The fact that people that take Hydroxychloroquine and come out and tell the world that is works is not FOX NEWS.

No, but they have an interest in doing this because it helps Trump. They Promote this drug but don’t talk about the strong side effects or the fact that the best clinical trials have shown it is not that effective. 

 

[mauGR1]

On 4/17/2020 at 8:14 PM, chessman said:

What I am saying is perfectly true.

[WalkingOrders]

Thailand is fine time to internally open up.