Covid19 - no need to panic - still

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, mauGR1 said:

Actually the economic disaster will be made worse by the restriction of freedoms which we used to consider normal.

How the masses will react to be big changes that we are facing, will be extremely interesting.

I think smartphones and social media has reduced most to sheeple that will accept everything inflicted on them with barely a baaaaaaa.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, mauGR1 said:

I'm sorry for them too, soon or later the loss of freedom of the majority will affect them too, one way or another.

There are some benefits to being old. Less time to suffer in the brave new world to come.

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I think smartphones and social media has reduced most to sheeple that will accept everything inflicted on them with barely a baaaaaaa.

I only partly agree, i think the "sheeple condition" has always existed.

I read some theory that 70% of the normal folks are easily manipulated, not hard to believe that, and i guess that 500 or 1000 years ago it was about the same.

Yet, resisting the flow is very hard, and another 70% of the free thinkers end up adapting to the majority.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I only partly agree, i think the "sheeple condition" has always existed.

I read some theory that 70% of the normal folks are easily manipulated, not hard to believe that, and i guess that 500 or 1000 years ago it was about the same.

Yet, resisting the flow is very hard, and another 70% of the free thinkers end up adapting to the majority.

Few are willing to be attacked for going against the flow of majority opinion, no matter how barking it may be.

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Few are willing to be attacked for going against the flow of majority opinion, no matter how barking it may be.

That's unfortunately the reality of the physical world.

[chessman]

10 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I read some theory that 70% of the normal folks are easily manipulated

This is also a circular argument. The same people who you think are being easily manipulated will probably think the same thing about you. People like to claim the mainstream media is dishonest but are often getting their news from sources that are in the business of making you think that way.

[mauGR1]

5 minutes ago, chessman said:

This is also a circular argument. The same people who you think are being easily manipulated will probably think the same thing about you. People like to claim the mainstream media is dishonest but are often getting their news from sources that are in the business of making you think that way.

Surely i can agree with you.

There are lots of people who think they understand everything, but in fact understand very little, and i might be one of them ????

[Logosone]

20 hours ago, chessman said:

172 reported new deaths yesterday. That is the the much more important statistic, as you know.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

The number '5' will be adjusted to a  much higher total in the next few days and is only so low because of a lag in reporting , as you know.

 

You think these kind of comparisons skew against Sweden because of it's tiny population? Ridiculous! More than 10 million people there.

 

You seem very dogmatic with this, Sweden must be correct, the UK must have been wrong...

 

The honest answer is we don't know. If Sweden had taken a different path it would very likely have figures similar to Denmark, Norway and Finland.

 

Will the economy in Sweden be in significantly better shape than the other Nordic counties when this is over? We don't know

Will Sweden do better when/if there is a second wave because people there have more immunity? We don't know.

 

You are too sure of yourself

 

To me deaths are actually more important, because they are more reliable indicators, but yes new cases should also be considered of course.

 

Indeed the 5 new deaths on 22 April was corrected to.....26. If you compare this figure of 26 to, say, 8th April, when Sweden had 111 new deaths, you can see clearly that Dr Tegnell is right and the peak has already happened.

 

Using a per capita figure obviously skews figures in favour of countries with larger populations, it's a well known statistics distortion. Sweden has a tiny population compared with the UK, Germany, France etc.

 

But it doesn't matter, even if you takes deaths as a percentage of population, as of today Sweden has seen Covid19 kill 0.02021 of its population. It's not that Sweden "must" be right, Sweden WAS right not to close its country for a virus that killed 0.02021 of its population. And yes, the UK got it very, very wrong, its social distancing extremism is not giving it better figures than Sweden. Sorry, those are the facts.

 

Sure, Sweden could have reduced numbers further if they'd tested like Norway, Finland etc, however, to me Sweden is interesting not because it has performed the best in dealing with Covid19, it is interesting because it has not done mass testing and it has not done extreme social distancing. So if Sweden's figures are what they are we can see that the social distancing fanatics are obviously wrong, it is not key, it does nothing very much and Sweden, without it, is doing just fine, thank you very much.

 

Indeed it remains to be seen if Sweden will have greater immunity, but that surely has to be the case, given the lack of social distancing compared with its neighbours, so the second and third waves should be less virulent there than in Denmark or Norway, even if currently Sweden has somewhat greater mortality this may be a price that buys them far greater immunity. We will see.

 

Projections on the Swedish economy are very clearly not as poor as they are for the UK, little surprise there.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:

Of course he is very dogmatic about this as Sweden feeds into his echo chamber of the 'best' way to do this i.e. no self-isolation and let the chips fall as they may. If Sweden starts showing higher levels of contagion and lots of deaths then obviously the correct way was self-isolation and a full week of forcing his opinion on us TV readers vwill have to be followed by a 'I'm soooo sorry. I got this wrong. Self-isolation was the correct thing to do and I'll take back everything I said'. (which is obviously going to happen)

 

Well, it doesn't look like I'm wrong.

 

The virus has killed 0.02021 of Sweden's population.

 

Sweden was clearly right that self-isolation of the extreme kind was not necessary.

 

Obviously this miniscule figure will go slightly higher as the next few days go on, but it is plain to see that the Coronapocalypse will not happen in Sweden. And this despite the fact that Sweden did not follow extreme social distancing like the UK.

 

Will you go on record to offer your heartfelt apology and confirm that social distancing was a nonsense on a grand scale and a total overreaction? When can I look forward to this?

[Logosone]

51 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

If mass immigration ends and locals have to work instead of thinking of the dole as a career that would be quite beneficial.

This is more than likely, actually, because with the massive debt that has been taken on and the massive steps that will now need to be taken to save financially impaired hospitals and to prepare us for the next pandemic it is clear that some social benefits will have to be cut.

 

The dole and pension system are the clear losers here.

 

I actually agree about cheap mass tourism, if only the wealthy can fly around the world again it will be a jolly good thing. Nobody needs Kuta style excesses.

[chessman]

17 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

and i might be one of them

And I am certainly one of them ????

[Throatwobbler]

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Well, it doesn't look like I'm wrong.

 

The virus has killed 0.02021 of Sweden's population.

 

Sweden was clearly right that self-isolation of the extreme kind was not necessary.

 

Obviously this miniscule figure will go slightly higher as the next few days go on, but it is plain to see that the Coronapocalypse will not happen in Sweden. And this despite the fact that Sweden did not follow extreme social distancing like the UK.

 

Will you go on record to offer your heartfelt apology and confirm that social distancing was a nonsense on a grand scale and a total overreaction? When can I look forward to this?

Yesterday you quoted that the virus had killed 0.019 of Sweden' population. Today it is 0.02021. You keep posting these figures like the pandemic has ended and these are the final figures. Posting these figures while the pandemic is still in effect is meaningless.

 

What number of Sweden's population is needed to die in your eyes for you to admit you were wrong? 

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

And I am certainly one of them ????

I appreciate your intellectual honesty, but we differ on a basic point.

I don't think it's logical to give any institution too much power, there should be check and balances for every important institution.

One has to ask if depriving almost the whole world population of the freedom to leave their house is strictly legal, and convenient in the long term.

While it's fair to worry about our health, and especially the health of the oldest and the weakest, this noble feeling can backfire, and create a lot of dissent especially for the young and restless.

How we will deal with that will be interesting to see.

[AussieBob18]

33 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This is more than likely, actually, because with the massive debt that has been taken on and the massive steps that will now need to be taken to save financially impaired hospitals and to prepare us for the next pandemic it is clear that some social benefits will have to be cut.

The dole and pension system are the clear losers here.

I actually agree about cheap mass tourism, if only the wealthy can fly around the world again it will be a jolly good thing. Nobody needs Kuta style excesses.

I particularly like your point about cheap mass tourism. It is very clear that this is the method by which virus infects people all over the world - including this Covid19 virus. And when one accepts that fact, the next step is to consider how many people get ill and die every year, because of the transmission of infectious diseases (including TB) through people travelling to other countries.  IMO it is well over a million every single year - probably over 2 million.  And yet what precautions are taken to stop people who have an infectious disease from going into another country, or returning home with one - like so many did to the USA after the Chinese New Year celebrations in Feb 2020. 

 

Consider how much effort and work is being done to stop people taking items on board flights and into other countries that are far less dangerous than TB, Ebola, or Covid/Sars/Mers/Flus.  IMO all international travelers, including those returning, should have to prove they are free of any infectious disease. Going overseas and infectious - stopped. Returning from overseas and infectious - quarantine.

 

Visiting USA or Europe from China - prove you have nothing  infectious. Go to Africa and then return - prove you dont have Ebola etc. We stop people flying who are carrying dangerous items, because of what we have seen happen in the past.  OK then, stop people flying who are themselves dangerous.  Sure it is going to mean it costs a lot more than now, but clearly cheap mass international tourism has caused massive people's deaths - much more than any bomber or terrorist.

 

I cannot take a dog from Thailand to Australia easily - mandatory quarantine and testing.  And yet a person carrying something far more serious inside them, can walk straight through customs and spread disease. All customs facilities should include mandatory infectious disease testing.  Not easy I know, but once this is put in place worldwide, the tests will get better and quicker.  

Edited April 24, 2020 by AussieBob18

[Sujo]

There are many things wrong with herd immunity, thats why the professionals dont subscribe to it. Admittedly there are nutters out there that will follow anything just to be different.

 

With the herd situation i feel sorry for the people that need hospitalisation and care for other things and cannot get it because the uneducated will inundate the medical system to a standstill.

 

I would like those that want the herd way of doing thing to all be put together in their own exile so they can knock each other off instead of worrying the people who rely on the specialists.

[Sujo]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I particularly like your point about cheap mass tourism. It is very clear that this is the method by which virus infects people all over the world - including this Covid19 virus. And when one accepts that fact, the next step is to consider how many people get ill and die every year, because of the transmission of infectious diseases (including TB) through people travelling to other countries.  It is well over a million every single year - probably over 2 million.  And yet what precautions are taken to stop people who have an infectious disease from going into another country, or returning home with one - like so many did to the USA after the Chinese New Year in Feb 2020.  Then  consider how much effort and work is being done to stop people taking items onboard or into other countries that are far less dangerous.  IMO all international travelers, including those returning, should have to be proven to be free of any infectious disease.  Visiting USA or Europe from China - prove you have nothing  infectious. Go to Africa and then return - prove you dont have Ebola etc. We stop people flying who are carrying dangerous items, because of what we have seen happen in the past.  OK then, stop people flying who are themselves dangerous.  Sure it is going to mean it costs a lot more than now, but clearly cheap mass international tourism has caused massive people's deaths - much more than any bomber or terrorist.

 

 

Dont just pick and chose countries. Should be done to anyone wishing to leave any and all countries.

[chessman]

48 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Indeed the 5 new deaths on 22 April was corrected to.....26. If you compare this figure of 26 to, say, 8th April, when Sweden had 111 new deaths, you can see clearly that Dr Tegnell is right and the peak has already happened.

Again, I'm going to presume you know exactly how these figures work so I don't know why you are writing this. There is a lag in the announcements of deaths. The number will be corrected up from 26 today. and again tomorrow. and again the day after that. and again the day after that. and again the day after that... That's how they can announce 170+ new reports of death and only 5 on the actual previous day. He may be right that they have reached the peak but he may well be wrong. Sweden announced it's highest ever number of new cases yesterday. The number of new deaths reported did go down slightly but they are still on course to easily break the highest 7 day average.

[chessman]

30 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I appreciate your intellectual honesty, but we differ on a basic point.

I don't think it's logical to give any institution too much power, there should be check and balances for every important institution.

One has to ask if depriving almost the whole world population of the freedom to leave their house is strictly legal, and convenient in the long term.

While it's fair to worry about our health, and especially the health of the oldest and the weakest, this noble feeling can backfire, and create a lot of dissent especially for the young and restless.

How we will deal with that will be interesting to see.

I think (almost) everybody is suffering at the moment - but I think you overestimate the number of people who are not worrying about the things your write about. There should be checks and balances, if my country (the UK) was more democratic then it is likely that the current restrictions would actually have happened sooner.  That could have saved 1000s of lives. Currently, in opinion polls, these measures also seem to have majority support. Same in the USA.

Of course it is not convenient in the long term, but things are already changing. European countries are beginning to open up bit by by bit. There is more and more data available and we can make better decisions driven by that data. I believe the case at the start for strict lockdowns was very good, we wanted to avoid healthcare systems being overwhelmed, we wanted to find out more about the virus, improve our ability to test. We've done that now and things will begin to change. They've already begun to change. I see quite a lot of people misinterpreting phrases like 'things won't get back to normal for a while' and thinking that means 'things will stay exactly like this for a while'. Clearly the 1st does not mean the 2nd.

 

One of the best things I have read about this crisis is called the hammer and the dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

If you have time, I strongly recommend it.

 

It certainly will be interesting to see what happens.

 

 

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Using a per capita figure obviously skews figures in favour of countries with larger populations, it's a well known statistics distortion. Sweden has a tiny population compared with the UK, Germany, France etc.

You are correct it does for smaller countries. San Marino has the highest death rate in the world but only 40 deaths.

To think that this is a significant factor for Sweden with 10,000,000 people and over 2000 deaths is laughable.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Sujo said:

There are many things wrong with herd immunity, thats why the professionals dont subscribe to it.

Oh they don't, do they?

 

You may want to educate yourself:

 

"Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, has defended the government’s approach to tackling the coronavirus, saying it could have the benefit of creating “herd immunity” across the population.

 

“Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

 

"Parts of Sweden could achieve 'herd immunity' as early as next month, the country's leading epidemiologist has said as the death toll steadily rises."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

[johnnybangkok]

3 hours ago, chessman said:

I think (almost) everybody is suffering at the moment - but I think you overestimate the number of people who are not worrying about the things your write about. There should be checks and balances, if my country (the UK) was more democratic then it is likely that the current restrictions would actually have happened sooner.  That could have saved 1000s of lives. Currently, in opinion polls, these measures also seem to have majority support. Same in the USA.

Of course it is not convenient in the long term, but things are already changing. European countries are beginning to open up bit by by bit. There is more and more data available and we can make better decisions driven by that data. I believe the case at the start for strict lockdowns was very good, we wanted to avoid healthcare systems being overwhelmed, we wanted to find out more about the virus, improve our ability to test. We've done that now and things will begin to change. They've already begun to change. I see quite a lot of people misinterpreting phrases like 'things won't get back to normal for a while' and thinking that means 'things will stay exactly like this for a while'. Clearly the 1st does not mean the 2nd.

 

One of the best things I have read about this crisis is called the hammer and the dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

If you have time, I strongly recommend it.

 

It certainly will be interesting to see what happens.

 

 

Good read and a very convincing argument for self-isolation

[Logosone]

There is no convincing argument for self-isolation.

 

See Sweden.

[chessman]

56 minutes ago, Logosone said:

See Sweden.

Real lives being lost, people being taken too soon.

 

from: https://www.thelocal.se/20200424/the-week-in-pictures-people-in-sweden-warned-to-keep-social-distancing-despite-spring-sunshine

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by chessman

[Logosone]

Yah, yah, 2000 people, 0.02021 per cent of the population.

 

Sensationalist overexaggeration serves no-one.

[TheDark]

4 hours ago, chessman said:

Real lives being lost, people being taken too soon.

 

from: https://www.thelocal.se/20200424/the-week-in-pictures-people-in-sweden-warned-to-keep-social-distancing-despite-spring-sunshine

 

 

While Swedish government is being rather unresponsible, Swedish people have taken their own steps to physically isolate themselves from others. Like seen on that article. 

 

Still Sweden's death per population numbers are 5-10 times higher compared to the neighbouring countries. 

 

The Swedish model towards pandemic doesn't seem to be a good one. 

 

I do hope that the leaders who promote this method, will be hold responsible afterwards. 

[Throatwobbler]

13 hours ago, Logosone said:

Yah, yah, 2000 people, 0.02021 per cent of the population.

 

Sensationalist overexaggeration serves no-one.

Once again the numbers you keep posting for Sweden’s death rate goes up day by day. I asked you before but you did not answer so I will ask again. What death rate is acceptable to you? How many people are you willing to let die so you can keep chasing the dollar?

[Logosone]

And the ugly truth coming out, social distancing rules were just made up out of thin air:

 

Professor Dingwall of Notting Trent University told Radio 4's Today: 'We cannot sustain [social distancing measures] without causing serious damage to society, to the economy and to the physical and mental health of the population.

'I think it will be much harder to get compliance with some of the measures that really do not have an evidence base. I mean the two-metre rule was conjured up out of nowhere.' He added: 'Well there is a certain amount of scientific evidence for a one-metre distance which comes out of indoor studies in clinical and experimental settings. 'There's never been a scientific basis for two metres, it's kind of a rule of thumb. But it's not like there is a whole kind of rigorous scientific literature that it is founded upon.'

 

Mr Dingwall's comments will throw into question whether people need to keep as far apart as is being advised.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256109/Social-distancing-two-metres-apart-based-figure-says-government-adviser.html

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/24/2020 at 5:10 PM, mauGR1 said:

Surely i can agree with you.

There are lots of people who think they understand everything, but in fact understand very little, and i might be one of them ????

We are all the products of our genes, upbringing and environment. Unless we were brought up to be independent thinkers and risk unpopularity by not going with the majority, we will be going along to get along, no matter how barking popular opinion is.

Tall poppy syndrome is hard to resist.

Everyone has the ability to think for themselves, but most don't or won't, hence the popularity of social media, the worst form of tyranny I know of.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

Once again the numbers you keep posting for Sweden’s death rate goes up day by day. I asked you before but you did not answer so I will ask again. What death rate is acceptable to you? How many people are you willing to let die so you can keep chasing the dollar?

It's hardly "chasing the dollar" when we are talking about the difference between poverty and an acceptable life.

The really rich are not affected by the economic collapse, but millions if already poor will be destroyed, not merely inconvenienced.

Those on here with guaranteed pension income and no economic hardship are hardly in a position to condemn those that wish to have a job and enough money to live on after the crisis ends.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/25/2020 at 3:52 AM, TheDark said:

While Swedish government is being rather unresponsible, Swedish people have taken their own steps to physically isolate themselves from others. Like seen on that article. 

It's called treating people as being adults responsible for their own actions. Those that wish to isolate are entirely able to do so on their own, without the nanny state treating us like we are all incompetents that have to be locked up whether it is necessary or not.