Covid-19: Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June - world must wait till November

[Aussie999]

Strange, the official pdf, https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end, from the DDI site, doesn't even mention Thailand, and it's updated daily... someone is spreading fake news, one can only guess who.

[DaRoadrunner]

2 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

A.I. modeling? What happened to the second and third, even fourth waves?

We have to stop the virus dead in its tracks at the first wave or lockdown will go on indefinitely.

[GAZZPA]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

It's a bit hard to see but according to this it's already over in China. Hands up who believes this. Guess that puts a bit of a question mark on the varacity of these figures. 

This is the disclaimer from their website.

*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

correct it is nonsense. Cannot blame the media for jumping on this data. The reality is that although individual countries may be clear of Coronavirus or at the least getting it under control the harsh reality is that nothing will be the same again and we cannot expect an kind of normal until we have an effective vaccine, simple as that.

[BobBKK]

9 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

So 50k plus Americans and 20k Brits didn’t die then? That’s a relief.
 

the only thing fake is your use of the word “fake” just like his highness the fakester in chief who believes he is King of the USA

They are entering C19 on death certs. I would like to see the normal amount of deaths vs now.  If its normally 20,000 and now 40,000 fair enough.

[GAZZPA]

1 minute ago, DaRoadrunner said:

We have to stop the virus dead in its tracks at the first wave or lockdown will go on indefinitely.

even if the virus is gone in Thailand it is not almost everywhere else. It is good for the people of Thailand as they can get back to work but the tourism will not return any time soon. As I think everyone knows now we can't stop the coronavirus, we have to wait for an effective vaccine. 

[bluesofa]

16 minutes ago, jojothai said:

1 hour ago, Phuketshrew said:

I have just downloaded the PDF file for this and Thailand isn't even mentioned on it! (Taiwan is)

Its on the pdf file that I downloaded.

Mind you, I'm using a VPN.

Perhaps some countries are only allowed censored versions depending on your ISP location.

Its gonna be a problem if the people get optimistic that the emergency will be over. 

Out of interest, what's the date of the PDfs you've both downloaded?

I see the one in the Daily News report which mentions Thailand is 26 April.

I've downloaded the PDF (no VPN switched on) and it's dated 27 April. That one doesn't include Thailand.

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, bluesofa said:

Out of interest, what's the date of the PDfs you've both downloaded?

I see the one in the Daily News report which mentions Thailand is 26 April.

I've downloaded the PDF (no VPN switched on) and it's dated 27 April. That one doesn't include Thailand.

 

 

 

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

 

April 28th, Thailand still doesn't make an appearance !!

[vermin on arrival]

Just now, GAZZPA said:

even if the virus is gone in Thailand it is not almost everywhere else. It is good for the people of Thailand as they can get back to work but the tourism will not return any time soon. As I think everyone knows now we can't stop the coronavirus, we have to wait for an effective vaccine. 

The problem is the effective vaccine may be just as effective as the flu vaccine, which helps protect against last year's variants, but not the current mutations. Some places I have read say covid doesn't mutate much. Other places say it mutates a lot. The reality is we will need to find a way to live with this while protecting ourselves and developing herd immunity. Vaccine may work out well, but may not. Eventually we need to get back to some normality. Shutting the world for 1 to 2 years cannot work, a few months sure ok. Certainly the reintegration can start with the places that have it currently under control.

[dinsdale]

6 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

correct it is nonsense. Cannot blame the media for jumping on this data. The reality is that although individual countries may be clear of Coronavirus or at the least getting it under control the harsh reality is that nothing will be the same again and we cannot expect an kind of normal until we have an effective vaccine, simple as that.

You are assuming there will be a vaccine. This is as of yet not a given. The common cold is a virus and there is no vaccine, HIV no vaccine etc. 

[Justgrazing]

6 minutes ago, bluesofa said:

Out of interest, what's the date of the PDfs you've both downloaded?

I see the one in the Daily News report which mentions Thailand is 26 April.

I've downloaded the PDF (no VPN switched on) and it's dated 27 April. That one doesn't include Thailand.

 

 

Might've been hologramed .. need special Thai vision glasses to reveal it .. 

[bluesofa]

8 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

 

April 28th, Thailand still doesn't make an appearance !!

That seems odd. The link you've provided above takes me to 27 April.

 

edit: Actually yes, the page says "updated 28 April" at the top, but the table is still 27 April.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by bluesofa

[bluesofa]

9 minutes ago, Justgrazing said:

Might've been hologramed .. need special Thai vision glasses to reveal it .. 

I'm sure you didn't really mean rose-tinted glasses?

[jojothai]

16 minutes ago, bluesofa said:

That seems odd. The link you've provided above takes me to 27 April.

 

edit: Actually yes, the page says "updated 28 April" at the top, but the table is still 27 April.

 

Yes, seems odd that people are getting different versions.

I downloaded not long ago. Site was.

https://lasillarotarm.blob.core.windows.net.optimalcdn.com/docs/2020/04/28/covid19predictionpaper.pdf

At the top it says 

Updated at 2 AM, April 28, 2020

Thailand is 12th down the list.

 

Edit: Oops,

The article states Updated at 2 AM, April 28, 2020

but, the actual table has a heading and states

"Table 1. Three alternative estimations of COVID-19 end dates as of 26 April 2020"

 

NB I did not go through the official site ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

I just googled and took a link that was what I stated above.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by jojothai
added info

[EricTh]

If Singapore is so good at predicting, it wouldn't have become the highest infected in South East Asia.

[vermin on arrival]

I found cached data from April 26 which includes Thailand. : https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:GorX7nlqFd8J:https://people.sutd.edu.sg/jianxi_luo/public_html/COVID19PredictionTable20200426.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=th&client=firefox-b-d

 

Page 2 number 6.

Edited April 29, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[KhunBENQ]

35 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

Strange, the official pdf, https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end, from the DDI site, doesn't even mention Thailand, and it's updated daily... someone is spreading fake news, one can only guess who.

Indeed. Thailand vanished between April 26 (as in the OP) and April 27.

 

BTW I read that Vietnam has lifted most restrictions.

[phantomfiddler]

As long as Singapore says it,s OK ????

[barryofthailand]

I really don't think this thing will be over until the first of the year at the earliest 

[Tanlic]

ovid will be all over June?........my advice is keep away from her.

 

<deleted> joke but then so was Joker getting an Oscar........sick of hearing about Covid 19 predictions

 

It is not Sars this is one evil well organized unit that know the difference between weak and strong hosts.....kills the weak hardly harms the strong and they carry it without knowing.......

 

Some Thai saying it will be over is crazy and politically motivated........when there has been very few new cases worldwide for a month then it is over....and everone is vaccined

 

Influenza was over (the Spanish Flu) everything went back to normal then it came back like a Tornado and killed millions

 

[phutoie2]

27 minutes ago, EricTh said:

If Singapore is so good at predicting, it wouldn't have become the highest infected in South East Asia.

They have that pretty much under control. No need to wet yourself about it. 

[natway09]

Until International travel is allowed then we are back to worse than ever

[NCC1701A]

just now talked to a friend in Bangkok and she is 100% sure June 1st all entertainment will be open.  

[belfast3]

The big challenge is going to be tourism, getting people into the country obviously risks further spread.

 

Covid19 certificate and/or 14 days quarantine is going to rule out 99% of tourists. 

[bluesofa]

4 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

just now talked to a friend in Bangkok and she is 100% sure June 1st all entertainment will be open.  

I hope not. Just in time for the second wave to hit.

As someone pointed out regarding the 'claim' about it being over by June:

"Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors."

 

On a lighter note, I've heard rumours your harem have also said the same about you: "educational and research purposes and may contain errors".

[Cake Monster]

4 hours ago, johno49 said:

who wrote this bullrubish

Singapore University of Technology and Design.

Well ! They have told all of us , now all they have to do is tell Covid19, so that its on the same page as them.

What a load of B"££*^*s

[spidermike007]

It would appear many on this forum are hoping for a second wave. Assuming it will happen. I do not think it will, assuming Thailand remains closed to international visitors, from the epicenters. 

 

It is gone. Let it go. It was defeated here. Cheer up. The world is not coming to an end anytime soon.

[NCC1701A]

8 minutes ago, bluesofa said:

On a lighter note, I've heard rumours your harem have also said the same about you: "educational and research purposes and may contain errors".

one thing i will say is in a pandemic you learn who your real friends are. 

 

[herwin1234]

Not so hard to believe. here the crisis is dealt with by decisive leaders basing their decisions on facts and science,  and a united population.

America? A Supreme leader who suggests injecting bleach might be the cure, who encourages unruly citizens protesting, and who together with his sidekick Pence refuse to wear masks. What a <deleted>hole country!

[dinsdale]

3 hours ago, Rancid said:

Who knows if they are right, however you'd have to give them more credibility than the anonymous doomsayers here.

Why? As I pointed out it is over in China according to these projections. We all know it isn't so why give this any credibility other than its a computer generated statistical forecast based on what they admit to being highly variable data.

[GAZZPA]

9 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

It would appear many on this forum are hoping for a second wave. Assuming it will happen. I do not think it will, assuming Thailand remains closed to international visitors, from the epicenters. 

 

It is gone. Let it go. It was defeated here. Cheer up. The world is not coming to an end anytime soon.

Too true fella, the world is not about to end. If Thailand has kicked it then thats a great thing for the locals, I can only imagine how the poor people are surviving.