Here’s Why Thailand’s Dire Economic Outlook Is the Worst in Asia

[7fish]

1 hour ago, Mikeasq60 said:

I just get the feeling theirs more to these lockdowns worldwide because these countries are all saying the same exact thing

They are all saying the same thing because they are following orders from the WHO, there's just the one script.

 

[trainman34014]

41 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

It does not take a genius to figure out the reason why the outlook is so bleak. Thailand has in the past done very well and relied heavily on the tourist dollar, but for some totally inexplicable reason have now decided to treat western tourist in a manner that can only be described as lower than one would treat a dog ???? 

In that case the Western Tourists are now being treated as Western Ex Pats have been for the last 20 years then; although we are treated like Dog Excrement for the most part, which is lower than a Dog !

[moe666]

8 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Depends on how much the economy of your home country and how much it contracts.

[Pancho]

Just under orders. Daddy’s home.

[Thomas J]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Here’s Why Thailand’s Dire Economic Outlook Is the Worst in Asia

They say the first rule in getting out of a hole is to stop digging it deeper but Thailand despite have essentially no coronavirus problem keeps digging itself in deeper.  The multiplier effect works when money comes into a country and is spent and those earning that money in turn spend it and so on creating prosperity.  Thailand has for all intents closed its borders meaning that any money that would be brought in from tourists will not hit the economy so taxi drivers, airline workers, restaurants, hotels, tourist attractions etc will not be earning money so they will not have any to spend as well.  That impacts clothing, food, housing, rentals etc.  

 

[Chongalulu]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

But China is not SE Asia, it's a totally different economy with different trading partners and exports. Vietnam and Thailand compete along with Malaysia for their share of the same market.

Except ALL are doing better than Thailand and there is a good deal of commonality between the trading partners of China and SE Asia ,Thus competition. China is losing business to Vietnam. Yes China is doing better than Thailand because it is exporting technology and expertise,but this brings me back to the point about education and qualifications where China is advancing while Thailand regresses. 

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

As said, GDP is measured by adding the value of ALL spending in an economy. But hey, if you want to add more to Thai GDP, that's OK, there's no downside.

There's the economy, and a black market economy. If you think the BOT measures the illegal stuff, there's a bridge in Sydney I'd like to sell you.

Get real, when the junta closed the euphemistically named massage parlours, it wasn't the absence of farangs that affected GDP. 95% of the business of those establishments relied on Thais.

[Thomas Hannah]

9 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

NO,

[Oziex1]

Time for another open letter to the well heeled, or perhaps someone could hock his watches, that oughta do it. 

[tomauasia]

11 hours ago, Denim said:

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

Delusional 

[tomauasia]

8 hours ago, rkidlad said:

Yes that's the sad truth. 

[Aussiepeter]

Finally a first for me on TV - no one else on this topic has noticed that the guy in the top right hand of the rear rank has his eyes shut !  It is almost as though he is on another planet (due to good weed), or perhaps, he has just had a couple of beers too many - (I sometimes get a silly grin like that when I've got a few in, but usually after a big win on the horses) - you are allowed to grin after 33 years in the Infantry and (wait for it)  three Thai wives. Just wondering WHY he has his eyes shut though and has a silly grin ? Any ideas ? I have a friend in the airline industry senior management - he says all the worlds' A380's are finished (grounded for ever) and will be "beer cans" in the near future and, that almost no serious regular flights to LOS for the next two to three years is their prediction. Hope he's wrong, but he never has been yet ... 

[Expat Tom]

The leaders of Thailand are the same generals who led the coup promising to return the government to civilian rule within 6 months. 

Most of these generals have been educated only in Thai military schools. They do not benefit from the academic excellence of West Point (US) Sandhurst (the UK) Saint-Cyr (France) or the Australian Defense Force Academy...to name a few. What do you actually expect from the huge "Brain Trust"? 

[AndrewMciver]

12 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Not really. As both America, Europe also heading for a steep drop, so both the dollar/Pound/Euro will also have falls. 

 

The UK for example is looking at a massive 25% yearly drop !!!! Then they face the final deal/no deal Brexit prospects. 

 

I believe Thai gdp will fall much great than 8% though.

Edited July 7, 2020 by AndrewMciver

[Denim]

1 hour ago, kensisaket said:

There's always darkness before there's light. That's what I keep telling people who continually find their heads stuck up their ...,...

 

In Thailand's case, the light at the end of the tunnel is the oncoming train.

[fondue zoo]

In relation to the comments about the strength of the baht. why does the Thai media keep saying that it is due to "inflows" and is not in line with the Thai economy?

[charmonman]

10 hours ago, rkidlad said:

The future may be dark but at least the uniforms are bright!

[Mr Grumpy]

13 hours ago, Denim said:

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

Are you serious? Or is this an attempt at sarcasm?  ????

[mommysboy]

I think it will be more like 10% or even higher.  

[ericthai]

9 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

We have had fair elections we have had non military government. The problem is that they have no system to educate people.  With everyone passed off at China is a perfect time to retool industry and start to provide the things that China made unfortunately we lack the skilled labour force

Please tell me when Thailand had fair elections.   Every election I seen in Thailand people are paid to vote. 

 

Thailand already has a very skilled labor force and already manufactures allot of product for exports. I do agree with you that people are upset with China and their are opportunities, but Thailand increased their labor rates too much over the past decade that Thai labor is too high compared to other local markets, I believe most opportunities will go to Cambodia and Vietnam. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by ericthai

[Harry Fingerling]

9 hours ago, Trillian said:

 

 

Building roads in Thailand will not reduce road deaths, that also is a process which will take years and involves culture change.

Perhaps building motorcycles that have lights and cars that have indicators might help. ????

[rabang]

With 70 million people Thailand could have a strong internal domestic market if it wasn't for the fact that many or even most citizens live from hand to mouth and the elite is happy for the status quo to remain in place.  Add that to a potentially strong agricultural sector exporting food the economy could be much more robust because after all everyone needs to eat. Instead Thailand relies heavily on direct money flowing into the country in the form of international tourism which is a very vulnerable business and also requires heavy infrastructure with hotels, airports, planes, restaurants etc. that have regular expenses and need maintenance at all times, even when the money is not flowing in.

Edited July 7, 2020 by rabang

[Trillian]

9 hours ago, Lacessit said:

There's the economy, and a black market economy. If you think the BOT measures the illegal stuff, there's a bridge in Sydney I'd like to sell you.

Get real, when the junta closed the euphemistically named massage parlours, it wasn't the absence of farangs that affected GDP. 95% of the business of those establishments relied on Thais.

Yes of course they are different things but much of the black economy can be measured and some of it is captured. Only the illegal transaction is black, it's inputs, the ingredient purchases used to make illegal products, hotel room purchases, the things that are purchased with the illegal gains, bank deposits earning interest, real estate and automobile purchases, nearly all are in the white economy. 

[Trillian]

9 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Except ALL are doing better than Thailand and there is a good deal of commonality between the trading partners of China and SE Asia ,Thus competition. China is losing business to Vietnam. Yes China is doing better than Thailand because it is exporting technology and expertise,but this brings me back to the point about education and qualifications where China is advancing while Thailand regresses. 

We agree regarding education and qualification, no question. We do not fully agree that China and SE Asia are the same market although you used the word commonality which is much better. The Chinese market is controlled by CBOC which restricts currency flows, the country is also the subject of increasingly larger tariffs. Vietnam and Thailand don't suffer from those same problems and do compete for business from Chinese business looking to escape mainland controls and tariffs. So the comparison is between Vietnam and Thailand, the latter being twice the size of the former in business and GDP terms, the former having a more unstable currency where inflation is prone to spikes.

 

On a head to head basis Vietnam still has some way to go before they are a direct threat to Thailand's growth longer term and Thailand knows this, there are substantial issues in the country including lack of infrastructure, poor transportation links, weak financial structures that are independent, a legal framework that is not transparent and recurring tensions with China which should not be underestimated. Those things said, Vietnam's progress with European FTA's which was well deserved, they made good progress quickly. I think it's good that Thailand has Vietnam starting to compete for regional business, at some point it will make Thailand up its game, out of necessity.

 

 

 

 

[baansgr]

19 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Likewise other countries economies are contracting so it's unlikely at present. However, Thailand will not recover as quickly so a lower Baht is highly possible in the near future

[mike787]

Going into the crapper...

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed.

 

Some troll posts and the replies have been removed.

 

Some offensive posts and the replies have been removed. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

15 hours ago, Trillian said:

7.5% of GDP from domestic tourism

11.5% of GDP from international tourism.

Tourism Total = 18% of GDP - GDP = USD 520 bill.

 

and tourism is 20% of all exports, exports accounting for 60% of GDP.

The value of the tourist sector can be discussed indefinitely, but do you have a good "gestimate" of how much of imports can be directly linked to tourism?

When a tourist drink a bottle of Australian wine, have Frensh cheese for breakfast, use fuel, stay in a foreign owned hotel, etc, money is also flowing out of the country.

Surely it is less than 20%, but could it be 10%?

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

Yes of course they are different things but much of the black economy can be measured and some of it is captured. Only the illegal transaction is black, it's inputs, the ingredient purchases used to make illegal products, hotel room purchases, the things that are purchased with the illegal gains, bank deposits earning interest, real estate and automobile purchases, nearly all are in the white economy. 

Saengd (sorry I mean Trillian) that is nonsense. Take the adult entertainment industry for example, which is huge. You think the sex workers are putting their money into the stock market, hotel rooms and real estate? A vast proportion of it goes to Issan to take are of their parents and kids and is spent in Issan at local markets, local stores or between individuals in the village environment. What doesn't get sent to Issan might get spent by the girl at night markets, clothes markets or maybe even on illegal drugs. I'd say a very small proportion of it goes into the white economy. Same goes for the van drivers, tuk tuk drivers, waitresses, maids, hotel staff, car/motorbike rental shops, tour guides etc. The list goes on and on. These people earn low wages and what they do earn may never turn up on any radar.

 

I think they have no idea of the true value of tourism and if they did they'd play it down anyway because they like to pretend they don't need foreigners and are 100% self sufficient.

 

There will be a lot of families in Issan who haven't received their 10,000 a month from their cashier daughter in Bangkok/Pattaya. A lot of these families are already in debt from last seasons disastrous crop due to the drought.

 

Not to mention decrease in demand for products exported to Europe and the US. Difficult to talk this one up.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

10 hours ago, Expat Tom said:

The leaders of Thailand are the same generals who led the coup promising to return the government to civilian rule within 6 months. 

Most of these generals have been educated only in Thai military schools. They do not benefit from the academic excellence of West Point (US) Sandhurst (the UK) Saint-Cyr (France) or the Australian Defense Force Academy...to name a few. What do you actually expect from the huge "Brain Trust"? 

The the Australian Defense Force Academy? Isn't that where they got caught abusing the cadets?