Thailand travel bubble in chaos: Plans for international flights between participating countries put off indefinitely

[DrTuner]

6 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

China is an authoritarian state.

Some like authoritarian states. Masochists. They also seem to like censorship, to the point of using ignore lists so the cadre behind their wumao backs won't see evil western fac.. propaganda that is.

[vermin on arrival]

2 hours ago, seancbk said:

 

Hong Kong announced a third wave of infections with 14 local HK people testing positive.   Hong Kong was going to be one of the travel bubble countries. 

 

Lol. 14 infections a third wave?? Big deal. People are so terrified with all the scaremongering that even one infection anywhere in the world is a cause for alarm. This is not the black death.

[jojothai]

3 hours ago, seancbk said:

 

Hong Kong announced a third wave of infections with 14 local HK people testing positive.   Hong Kong was going to be one of the travel bubble countries. 

 

I only saw China on the list. Hong Kong appeared to have things under control until the last few days.

Hong Kong's figure yesterday was 24 and now from the last 5 days shows a potentially increasing trend on the statistics from worldometers. 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by jojothai
Add data source

[vermin on arrival]

3 minutes ago, jojothai said:

I only saw China on the list. Hong Kong appeared to have things under control until the last few days.

Hong Kong's figure yesterday was 24 and now from the last 5 days shows a potentially increasing trend.

 

June 22 it was 30. July 1 it was 30 and has been bouncing up and down. These numbers are manageable. The main issue is how many fatalities. This illness cannot truly be eradicated with lockdowns and border closures. Eventually we will need to get back to living with sensible precautions and accept some deaths. People will die. It's all about mitigation and not ending up with a raging epidemic like Brazil or the US's current situation.

[Alidiver]

Mayby agreed fees to facilitate the bubbles weren't paid. 

[paulikens]

21 hours ago, KhunKenAP said:

BOT is now spreading doom and gloom about the Thai economy. Think we will see a big devaluation of the baht sooner rather than later. Keep only as much Thai baht as needed for your visa in the Thai banks.

@KhunKenAP no chance the baht is unmovable 

[jojothai]

17 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

June 22 it was 30. July 1 it was 30 and has been bouncing up and down. These numbers are manageable. The main issue is how many fatalities. This illness cannot truly be eradicated with lockdowns and border closures. Eventually we will need to get back to living with sensible precautions and accept some deaths. People will die. It's all about mitigation and not ending up with a raging epidemic like Brazil or the US's current situation.

Agree, Just a note to add that Hong Kong only has total 7 deaths, which overall appears very good.

4 deaths were by mid march. However The last three deaths were recent 20 , 23 , 25 June.

But there had only been a small number of new case beforehand. Is that significant?

Assuming that the deaths came from infection say at least 14 days earlier, = 11 June then during 21 days prior (from 21 May -11 june) only had about 52 new cases reported. That's potentially 1 in 17 deaths approx 6%.

This is not far off the global average 4.5 % deaths on cases, 7% deaths on closed cases.

 

Another question that some people ask is Whats the current risk of death?

From the worldometer statistics there is about 1% getting the virus for High infection countries - USA figures.

Say a 5% death rate. Gives us a 0.05% risk of catching the virus and dying.  That's 1 in 2,000.

 

For many lower risk countries at up to 0.1 % incidence of infection that would be 1 in 20,000 ,

and Thailand is even lower.

 

[DB58]

On 7/8/2020 at 4:06 PM, PEE TEE said:

I have a 28 year lease on a house in thailand would this be proof of residency . to get back if i were in the UK. and a valid retirement visa   

 

Don’t think so, I believe that must be a “permanent” residence status. Sorry to say...

[Jumbo1968]

I have tried to email the Embassy in London today using the email address I have always used and the emails have been returned as undeliverable’ I tried another one and it was also returned as it deliverable’ ?

[kingofthemountain]

1 hour ago, Jumbo1968 said:

I have tried to email the Embassy in London today using the email address I have always used and the emails have been returned as undeliverable’ I tried another one and it was also returned as it deliverable’ ?

Have you tried to phone call them to verify if the e mail adress is still valid?

[Jumbo1968]

6 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

Have you tried to phone call them to verify if the e mail adress is still valid?

It’s the email addresses I have always used from the main site, I used them today, I emailed directly from there, tried calling a few times but no one ever answers the phones.

[Paradise Pete]

On 7/8/2020 at 3:20 AM, Mises said:

let COVID 19 do its worst, which is not very much for 99.9% of people

 

Exactly. Never mind the brain damage, nerve damage, strokes, and permanent lung damage. What a bunch of pansies!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/08/warning-of-serious-brain-disorders-in-people-with-mild-covid-symptoms

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Paradise Pete

[DrTuner]

50 minutes ago, Paradise Pete said:

Never mind the brain damage, nerve damage, strokes, and permanent lung damage.

Sounds like a good Friday night binge.

[joecoolfrog]

On 7/8/2020 at 12:58 PM, herwin1234 said:

i still dont get it. Whats with the constant China bashing? China has covid under control (unlike the usa). And China is a neighbour of Thailand, with long stable good relations, and lets not forget the many Chinese immigrants who integrated and helped Thailand grow economically (oh what a difference with the cynical farang immigrants..) 

 

Its only natural and fair and common sense thatChina would be included.

 

The current anti China sentiments are basically a war drumbeat from global bully nr 1 usa who cant handle competition from China instead tries to warmonger other western countries in an unfounded Anti China sentiment.

Pathetic. 

Im guessing word for word , dictated from a Beijing memo.

[Traubert]

14 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Im guessing word for word , dictated from a Beijing memo.

The usual moronic response.

 

'You must be controlled!!!'

 

Speak for yourself.

[Redline]

Or, maybe someone realized that someone might find out that someone isn’t using real numbers, or something like that ????

Hmmm, easily figured out who got COVID where 

[7fish]

On 7/8/2020 at 7:24 AM, kingofthemountain said:

Someone can explain to me this ''problem'' with the toilet paper? Sorry but i don't get it

What is the point to storing at home this product when there is no shortage of it in the shops?

in the uk the media told people there would be a shortage of loo roll, that was enough to send 70% of the population to the shops to stock up. Washing is better any way, toilet paper just smears it al over the place. They also emptied the shops of pasta, so that became the basis of survival for many in the uk, pasta and loo roll.

[nausea]

Yeah, the loo roll thing is a bit of a joke living in Thailand. As for the pasta, yeah I have this, and a ton of tinned stuff. Not preparing for some apocalypse, just fancy a spaghetti bolognese every now and then. If it does happen, I guess I'm good for a month. Probably longer, eating porridge.

[JCP108]

15 hours ago, jojothai said:

Agree, Just a note to add that Hong Kong only has total 7 deaths, which overall appears very good.

4 deaths were by mid march. However The last three deaths were recent 20 , 23 , 25 June.

But there had only been a small number of new case beforehand. Is that significant?

Assuming that the deaths came from infection say at least 14 days earlier, = 11 June then during 21 days prior (from 21 May -11 june) only had about 52 new cases reported. That's potentially 1 in 17 deaths approx 6%.

This is not far off the global average 4.5 % deaths on cases, 7% deaths on closed cases.

 

Another question that some people ask is Whats the current risk of death?

From the worldometer statistics there is about 1% getting the virus for High infection countries - USA figures.

Say a 5% death rate. Gives us a 0.05% risk of catching the virus and dying.  That's 1 in 2,000.

 

For many lower risk countries at up to 0.1 % incidence of infection that would be 1 in 20,000 ,

and Thailand is even lower.

 

Of course those rates for Thailand are based on reported figures. The actual cases may be quite different. 

 

https://bangkokherald.com/coronavirus/new-evidence-casts-doubts-on-accuracy-of-thailands-official-coronavirus-statistics/

[elgenon]

On 7/7/2020 at 9:22 PM, MadMac said:

Oh gotta love those 180 degree turns, or was it 540 already? ????

Still going 'round and 'round!

[overherebc]

7 hours ago, 7fish said:

in the uk the media told people there would be a shortage of loo roll, that was enough to send 70% of the population to the shops to stock up. Washing is better any way, toilet paper just smears it al over the place. They also emptied the shops of pasta, so that became the basis of survival for many in the uk, pasta and loo roll.

Mmmm. I think I'll stick to pasta with a tomato and meat sauce.

[RR2020]

I see Thai Airways online booking for International flights is completely blocked off for August as well now.   https://www.thaiairways.com/en_TH/index.page  

 

Previously said they would resume 1st of August, looks now like its 1st September earliest for Thai Airways to resume flights.

 

Thai Airways needs passengers - there is no point operating Thai if there is no free moment of people (eg tourists) coming into Thailand.

 

So one assumes now that at the very earliest the 1st of September might see some limited opening of tourism routes.

 

 

[moontang]

2 hours ago, RR2020 said:

I see Thai Airways online booking for International flights is completely blocked off for August as well now.   https://www.thaiairways.com/en_TH/index.page  

 

Previously said they would resume 1st of August, looks now like its 1st September earliest for Thai Airways to resume flights.

 

Thai Airways needs passengers - there is no point operating Thai if there is no free moment of people (eg tourists) coming into Thailand.

 

So one assumes now that at the very earliest the 1st of September might see some limited opening of tourism routes.

 

 

I have a bkk-USA ticket for mid October.  I bought it in May, and now it seems overly optimistic.  I would want to return mid Nov at the latest.  Need to see the FDR era parents. Was looking at a house in Wyoming....but not to spend the Winter in... frustrating problem. Many are in far worse predicaments than myself.  The unknowns are many. 

[kingofthemountain]

4 hours ago, RR2020 said:

I see Thai Airways online booking for International flights is completely blocked off for August as well now.   https://www.thaiairways.com/en_TH/index.page  

 

Previously said they would resume 1st of August, looks now like its 1st September earliest for Thai Airways to resume flights.

 

Thai Airways needs passengers - there is no point operating Thai if there is no free moment of people (eg tourists) coming into Thailand.

 

So one assumes now that at the very earliest the 1st of September might see some limited opening of tourism routes.

 

 

There is a possibility that Thai airways in the actual form goes bankruptcy

and never fly again in the future. 

 

I would not be surprised if a lighter structure with a new name and few of the ex-Thai planes re start in few months from 0 (Debts, tickets already sells and so on, all should be forgotten.)

 

It's the only viable option imo

Edited July 10, 2020 by kingofthemountain

[86Tiger]

1 hour ago, kingofthemountain said:

There is a possibility that Thai airways in the actual form goes bankruptcy

and never fly again in the future. 

 

I would not be surprised if a lighter structure with a new name and few of the ex-Thai planes re start in few months from 0 (Debts, tickets already sells and so on, all should be forgotten.)

 

It's the only viable option imo

I think by year end you will see several if not many airlines pulling the plug.

 

The volume of passengers required to be profitable is enormous and no airline or any business for that matter can survive when cash flow goes zero or near zero for extended period of time.  The bills, debt service and payroll keep on going.  Payroll can reduce to certain degree but you get my meaning....

[moontang]

The situation with Thai Airways is another complication that affects me.

[elliss]

 

    Pilots need  re-training , to be Tuk Tuk  drivers .

    Ladies and Gentlemen sorry for the delay again, those amateurish Grab delivery cowboys ???? ..

 

 

 

Edited July 11, 2020 by elliss

[Traubert]

On 7/10/2020 at 7:56 AM, JCP108 said:

Of course those rates for Thailand are based on reported figures. The actual cases may be quite different. 

 

https://bangkokherald.com/coronavirus/new-evidence-casts-doubts-on-accuracy-of-thailands-official-coronavirus-statistics/

Three weeks old Mr Sowerberry. ????

[jojothai]

On 7/9/2020 at 3:26 PM, jojothai said:

Another question that some people ask is Whats the current risk of death?

From the worldometer statistics there is about 1% getting the virus for High infection countries - USA figures.

Say a 5% death rate. Gives us a 0.05% risk of catching the virus and dying.  That's 1 in 2,000.

 

For many lower risk countries at up to 0.1 % incidence of infection that would be 1 in 20,000 ,

and Thailand is even lower.

 

Update on figures using new guidance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC mean estimate is that 40% of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and the chance of transmission from people with no symptoms is 75%.

In updated guidance on 10 July , the CDC gave its "current best estimate" based on data from late last month for people infected with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic raised to 40% from 35%.

The CDC previously estimated that the chance of transmission of the virus from asymptomatic people was 100%. Now it is reduced to 75%.

Under the new figures, the CDC estimated that 0.65% of people infected with Covid-19 are forecasted to die.

 

If 40% of people infected are asymptomatic, then that would make the number infected 1.67 times the reported cases.

If CDC chances of dying are 0.65% for high infection rates such as the USA with the infection rate adjusted to say 1.67 x 1%,

the chances of dying would be about  0.01%  or 1 in  10,000

and in countries with 0.1% reported infections , its 1 in 100,000.

Thailand reported cases is much lower,  if we can believe it .

However, even at 1 in 100,000 that would be 700 people for Thailand's population approx 70million.

 

Compare that to how many people die in traffic accidents here every year .

There has been almost 8000 deaths this year already.

That could be seen as at least ten times more chance of getting killed on the road here. 

 

[kg1947]

On 7/8/2020 at 11:37 AM, steven100 said:

There will be NO travel bubble now or in the near future.

Air Asia shares have been halted as of today and the airline is in financial difficulty. Forget international travel for the foreseeable future. 

Given the choice of Airlines : Nok , Lion , VietJet , Thai Smile , etc., the bubble will be limited to S.E.Asia & East Asia countries .   Europeans , Americans , South Americans will be the allowed in much later , maybe December 2020 ,

because Christmas must be " MERRY "  .....

just my uneducated guess , see if the Bureaucrats -

are correct in their ......   prediction .....  

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by kg1947
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