Why some people think that there is no virus in Thailand when most people actually do not have any symptoms ?

[vermin on arrival]

3 minutes ago, uhuh said:

PCR is a lot more accurate than all these antibody tests on the market. 

 

The hope that thousands and thousands of people have had the virus and no symptoms whatever is a mainstay on TVF, strangely it doesn't fit very well with what's happening in the US or the UK, in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Sweden, Spain etc etc 

 

I know that NTU is not an institution to be dismissed easily,  so I am curious what results they will publish in September. 

The test being used by NTU is 99.8% accurate. 100% if done within the last 14 days. Since it is most likely much later than 14 sayd the former would be more accurate.

 

https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202006080007

 

"However, Chan said the test being used is the Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV2 antibody test, which has 99.8 percent specificity and shows no cross-reactivity with the common cold, HIV, or other coronaviruses.

 

In other words, those features minimizes the chance of false positives, he said.

 

The test also showed 100 percent sensitivity in samples taken 14 days after a confirmed infection, Chan pointed out."

 

 

[utalkin2me]

Thailand has gotten lucky beyond belief. We don't know why exactly yet, but a China based virus, and Thailand is not effected? Cmon, that is lucky. There is some environmental factor here that the virus obviously does not like. Anyone who has entered a market where Thais shop knows there is virtually no distancing. It is pure luck, this is not a guess any longer. 

 

Nothing wrong with getting lucky, worse though is Thailand's policies. It is hard to blame anyone right now, but we are learning a lot and the policies are not responding accordingly. 

 

This all started with one person. There will be no stopping it in its tracks. People have not even woken up to that simple fact yet... they talk about "controlling the virus". You do not control this virus. It is out there and when it gets in it will do its thing. Time or closing borders will not stop it, all you are doing is delaying the inevitable, all while crippling working Thais. 

 

It may turn out no matter how bad things get, the virus simply can't spread in Thailand like it did in a place like Italy. My guess would be that is true because, again, a Chinese based virus.... NOT making its way to Thailand of all places. 

[vermin on arrival]

1 minute ago, utalkin2me said:

Thailand has gotten lucky beyond belief. We don't know why exactly yet, but a China based virus, and Thailand is not effected? Cmon, that is lucky. There is some environmental factor here that the virus obviously does not like. Anyone who has entered a market where Thais shop knows there is virtually no distancing. It is pure luck, this is not a guess any longer. 

 

Nothing wrong with getting lucky, worse though is Thailand's policies. It is hard to blame anyone right now, but we are learning a lot and the policies are not responding accordingly. 

 

This all started with one person. There will be no stopping it in its tracks. People have not even woken up to that simple fact yet... they talk about "controlling the virus". You do not control this virus. It is out there and when it gets in it will do its thing. Time or closing borders will not stop it, all you are doing is delaying the inevitable, all while crippling working Thais. 

 

It may turn out no matter how bad things get, the virus simply can't spread in Thailand like it did in a place like Italy. My guess would be that is true because, again, a Chinese based virus.... NOT making its way to Thailand of all places. 

A lot of European experts are now saying they believe it is not heat, it is humidity which the virus does not like. That would explain a lot for SE Asia's success.

[vermin on arrival]

2 hours ago, uhuh said:

I know that NTU is not an institution to be dismissed easily,  so I am curious what results they will publish in September. 

And a follow up article on this topic in today's Taiwan News. Results should be available August 25.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3984132

 

Of course, the head of the CECC is stating that there may be many false positives in this study. You do realize that while it may be true it is in his interest to say this though, right? They have built up such a culture of fear of covid in Taiwan that the admission of the possibility of more local cases in Taiwan could release a panic and hysteria there similar to the ridiculous public response to the asymptomatic Egyptian in Rayong.

[spidermike007]

It is your misunderstanding, not his. There have been few cases in two months now. No domestic cases. This virus does not incubate forever. Countless tests have shown that when asymptomatic, it is gone within a week or two. Very few exceptions, and most of those exceptions pertain to those who have symptoms. 

 

Covid IS GONE from Thailand. Deal with it. Accept it. Embrace it. Rejoice. The Zombie Apocalypse is not going to happen. 

[Swimfan]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 The Zombie Apocalypse is not going to happen. 

Only if they keep the borders closed till there is a vaccine and 50-60% of the population have been vaccinated. Its going to be a long road.

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

Thailand has gotten lucky beyond belief. We don't know why exactly yet, but a China based virus, and Thailand is not effected? Cmon, that is lucky. There is some environmental factor here that the virus obviously does not like. Anyone who has entered a market where Thais shop knows there is virtually no distancing. It is pure luck, this is not a guess any longer.

I don't think so, a full analysis of this issue will be done by every country in the world and they will all be looking to the large chunk of SEA which remains largely unaffected.

 

The first mass outbreak that we know about in an area with what appears to be low levels of pre-existing immunity was in Wuhan which is pretty far away from this region.

 

For one reason or another there appears to be a lot of pre-existing immunity in the entire SEA region or we would have seen much more of it.

 

 

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Covid IS GONE from Thailand. Deal with it. Accept it. Embrace it. Rejoice. The Zombie Apocalypse is not going to happen.

They said the same thing in New Zealand yet it's back.

 

I suspect it leaked out of state quarantine but who knows.

 

I came across something that amazed and kind of alarmed me earlier today - it was a page from an old book about McMurdo base in Antarctica.

 

After several months of isolation over a winter season there was an unexplained outbreak of 'cold'.....nobody knows what it was or where it came from, the book was written back in the 70's.

 

They tried using everything available at the time to determine what it was but found nothing. Food for thought.

 

[spidermike007]

18 minutes ago, ukrules said:

They said the same thing in New Zealand yet it's back.

 

I suspect it leaked out of state quarantine but who knows.

 

I came across something that amazed and kind of alarmed me earlier today - it was a page from an old book about McMurdo base in Antarctica.

 

After several months of isolation over a winter season there was an unexplained outbreak of 'cold'.....nobody knows what it was or where it came from, the book was written back in the 70's.

 

They tried using everything available at the time to determine what it was but found nothing. Food for thought.

 

A cold can be a terrible thing!

 

Covid is just a virus. The morbidity rate of the general population is not high. It is being blown altogether out of proportion. Especially with regard to the economic shutdowns, which in my opinion is absolute insanity. It is gone here. Not saying it could not be re-introdiced. But it would come from outside.

 

And with a quarantine, the risk is very low. Everyone should be welcome starting tomorrow. If they are willing to subject themselves to quarantine and pay the excessive rates for such. No down side for Thailand. Only fear, paranoia, and loathing, at this stage.

[ukrules]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Not saying it could not be re-introdiced. But it would come from outside.

Yes, probably.

 

In case anyone's interested in the McMurdo incident - they were actually isolated for 17 weeks over winter, about 4 months before the cold outbreak happened.

 

The full text of the report is available here : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/

 

Looks like it happened at the end of the 60's.

[rcummings]

On 8/4/2020 at 10:39 AM, Logosone said:

China suspends air routes from Thailand after positive covid tests

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/15661/china-suspends-air-routes-from-thailand-after-positive-covid-tests-airlines-say-no-passengers-disembarked-in-thailand/

 

Testing in Thailand has of course been on a mickey mouse scale, 99% of Thais remain untested.

 

If every test is negative that would raise the question why China has closed air routes from Thailand after passengers tested positive. Just curious. 

 

 

None of those passengers boarded the planes in Thailand.

Edited August 11, 2020 by rcummings

[vermin on arrival]

On 8/11/2020 at 1:09 PM, uhuh said:

PCR is a lot more accurate than all these antibody tests on the market. 

 

Interesting follow up.

 

Recently 4 people tested positive for covid 19 when leaving Taiwan and/or arriving elsewhere. Think at least 3 of the 4 had no symptoms. All the people test so far don't have covid or antibodies; looks like 700+ tested. What the hell is going on? Are the tests accurate or not? Are people contracting the disease or not? Seems in 1 case the person left quarantine and probably is a local Hong Kong case, but what about the other 3 who tested negative going in and tested positive going out with no contact trail of illness or know cause of transmission. Taiwan supposedly has no local cases.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3985836

[clarky cat]

On 8/9/2020 at 11:42 PM, ukrules said:

Everywhere inside the green oval shape has been relatively COVID free, including the provinces of China shown on the map.

 

They have all had cases but in lots of them they came much later than the original outbreak, after significant mutation and re-importation.

 

 

You had to to go far into China for a large outbreak to happen in Wuhan which is in Hubei, top right corner of the map or just outside the circle before you start to see 1000's of deaths in Bangladesh.

 

This is a huge continuous 'relatively safe zone' crossing plenty of borders.

 

Why?

The big circle is possibly where it all started and had the most cases in the world at some point, maybe before covid hit the news, now these areas have herd immunity

 

I do believe there are new cases in Thailand and people are deliberately being tested negative though 

[Jingthing]

12 hours ago, clarky cat said:

The big circle is possibly where it all started and had the most cases in the world at some point, maybe before covid hit the news, now these areas have herd immunity

 

I do believe there are new cases in Thailand and people are deliberately being tested negative though 

No there is no evidence that there is herd immunity in those areas. 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, swm59nj said:

 I live in a high rise condo building in Bangkok. Yesterday there were a few government vans at my building with a few men in blue uniforms. Today there are notices posted in the building saying one of the residents tested positive for covid. It says the district administration did a risk evaluation and the building itself is at low risk.

Interesting.

If the case was acquired in Thailand, will it ever show up in official counts? 

[DavisH]

On 8/2/2020 at 11:24 PM, geriatrickid said:

Well, the difference is that Taiwan has strict contact tracing,  strict  patient isolation,  and strict surveillance and a population that has been supportive and compliant with the guidelines. because of Covid19,

You just described Thailan'd approach actually. All positive cases were and are isolated - even PUI are as well. Over 1M health volunteers undertook contact tracing. If the virus is still present in the local community, its is at a very low level. Over 7000 were tested in Rayong and no positive cases were found? Any  number of asymptomatic cases would surely lead to detectable symptomatic cases, and fast, as was just found in NZ. 

[abonsa]

So many champions thinking that virus is not in Thailand when it's clearly everywhere in the world ! so funny them !

 

[Peter Denis]

On 8/13/2020 at 3:42 PM, DavisH said:

You just described Thailan'd approach actually. All positive cases were and are isolated - even PUI are as well. Over 1M health volunteers undertook contact tracing. If the virus is still present in the local community, its is at a very low level. Over 7000 were tested in Rayong and no positive cases were found? Any  number of asymptomatic cases would surely lead to detectable symptomatic cases, and fast, as was just found in NZ. 

This chart might help to put this 'super-scary deadly disease' in the right perspective.

Note: And it's only about those getting INFECTED, which would be very hard in Thailand at the moment with virtually no covid-19 for almost 2 months now.

People that are scared by the continuous fear-mongering cannot think rationally anymore.

 

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