Are Thailand's coronavirus numbers too good to be true?

[Don Mega]

39 minutes ago, Aussie Col said:

If that is the case they could let tourists back in and make them obey the same rules

Highly unlikely tourists will follow the but rules Bu hey.... once they do 14 days in quarantine at their expense why not !!

[Cake Monster]

7 hours ago, stevenl said:

"The Thai people are definitely afraid of Covid."

And that fear, instilled by government, has helped in dealing with it. But that same fear is now preventing Thailand to go back on the way up.

The Government propaganda earlier in the Year over Covid19 certainly did the trick back then.

Thais became obsessed, and anybody that sneezed or coughed within 20 metres of them was their death sentence.

Now, however, its all come back to bite the Government fair a square on the A$$, because even with the low reported Deaths Etc, The population is still bricking it over Covid 19.

The Authorities now have a major issue to reverse their rhetoric on Covid and get the Nation back to some kind of normality, but the population are saying NO Foreigners are welcome back.

Maybe that will all change as the Debt Moratoriums and Govt handouts are reeled back in shortly. 

 

[sitanonchai]

The Thai is good in fabricating number nonsense. Like the TAT you can't take anything serious what comes out of their brains.

 

If their is no mass testing done they don't know or they just sweep the known cases under the big carpet.

 

Tit

 

[stevenl]

5 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

Do you stand by this comment if applied to, for example, the USA which is testing anywhere between 750k to almost a million people daily and the overwhelming majority being asymptomatic and/or Minor symptomatic? 
 

And before you or anyone else melts down further, I’ve said it before I’m not taking away from Thailand’s success, I’m nothing the double standard in testing and reporting practices. One that you seem to support in one country, but don’t support if applied to another. 
 

People cry about “not enough tests” in the USA yet find Thailand’s practice of only really testing people who present to hospital with symptoms AND fit guidelines for getting a test, as a success, while at the same time lauding their numbers as indicative of the full extent of the pandemic. 

Big difference in the need for testing between a country with many infected people and one where virtually no one is infected.

[richard_smith237]

Thailand’s Covid-19 cases and deaths statistic is such a significant statistical outlier one would have to be rather blind not to question the accuracy of such statistics. 

Combine this with a government which seised power through the threat of force and ran as somewhat of a dictatorship with a firm grasp around the throats of the media, again, one would have to be rather blind not to question the accuracy of the statistics. 

 

Add to the issue the lack of domestic testing and again, one questions whether the ‘official’ line is valid at all. 

 

Include that Thailand had its first covid-19 cases before many other nations, yet shut down / locked down after many other nations and the official line, again, becomes questionable. 

 

Facemasks and a more compliant population has been the response to the skepticism, but is a nation who fails to wear motorcycle helmets really that compliant?

 

Others are saying that if there had been 20,000 Covid-19 deaths the bodies would be stacked up - but would they?

 

In 2018 Thailands crude death rate was 7.666 people per 1000

With a population of 69.43 million people thats 532,250 people who die each year in Thailand (all causes). 

Thats 44,354 per month (total deaths per month)

There are 1002 public hospitals and 316 private hospitals registered with the Ministry of Public Heath in Thailand

Thats 33.6 deaths per hospital per month (assuming an equal distribution which we know it isn’t)

 

IF Thailand had suffered 20,000 deaths in the 6 months of the Covid-19 crisis so far thats 3333 per month spread over 1318 hospitals - Thats 2.5 additional deaths per month per hospital. 

 

SO... For the people who argue that had the death toll be much higher it would be noticed and there would be photos of all the excess deaths we’re looking at an additional 2.5 deaths when the normal rate is 33.6 deaths. 

 

No one would notice until the death toll was perhaps in its 50,000 or more.

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2020 by richard_smith237

[Isaan Alan]

Methinks the Thai wai greeting in place of a handshake has already saved 1,000 deaths

[Pottinger]

Around and around we go again, to no useful purpose. Those who are convinced Thailand has done a superb job, better than almost anywhere else, will remained convinced of it, though the country appears to have done very little differently from a host of other places. What about the hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from neighbouring countries? Singapore's and the Gulf States' experience with such people tell us that Thailand's lack of cases is difficult to reconcile with their experience.

Then there are theorists who believe that little testing results in few cases, or that deaths have been ascribed to other causes, or that bodies have been quickly cremated or disposed of to hide the virus' prevalence. And so on and so on.

[rupert the bear]

i feel that deaths here are higher and unreported but not massive.we see a higher than normal death rate of about 2-3000 and pneumonia deaths are mostly these,it would explain it.we dont see hospitals full of cases and lots of people coming down with a 'flu' but also we dont test.every country that tests a lot finds a lot!most are asymptomatic  or minor.we must learn to live with it,even badly effected countries are seeing a minimal effect 330 mill americans and 150k deaths attributed to the virus[ in mostly obsese over 75 sick people,so time to mask up and move on which is whats happening internally here.just need to get  a little less paranoid

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

Valid points but does any of this matter? Why do we need to know what the death count is? Why is it relevant? If you look at this purely in terms of excess deaths, we're not talking a significant number at all. So should we care?

Well, it will be argued that any death is significant, however, that argument is flawed when setting policy for running country. 

 

So, even if the death toll is 20,000 in comparison with the bigger picture it's still small. Much less than other major *killers in Thailand, roads, diabetes, heart disease, stroke with the main contributing and ‘adjustable’ factors being Education, road improvements, diet, tobacco, sugar.... 

 

No criticism of Thailands initial lockdown, which was to prevent the health services from being overwhelmed by a new virus we knew nothing about.

 

However, the continued lockdown doesn’t make sense, even IF the stats are a lot higher than being reported (as you mentioned PatrickC) is this worth of continued lockdown when placing theoretical elevated numbers against other leading causes of death which Thailand seems to do nothing about (i.e Diabetes, Road Deaths, Heart Disease, Tobacco etc).

 

There’s definitely an imbalance. 

 

*http://www.healthdata.org/Thailand

[kwonitoy]

interesting article from the Economist, might be  paywalled but there's ways around

 

 The Economist | The bat signal https://www.economist.com/node/21790007?frsc=dg%7Ce

 

People are wondering the same for SE Asia's low numbers, Vietnam, Cambodia, Lao, Thailand

[northsouthdevide]

I've tried to take a pessimistic view about the government figures, but I just don't see any local cases, whereas back in the UK, I've had friends, acquaintances, and a family member contract, or die of covid, so I'm buying into what they're saying here, and even though I see plenty wrong with how this country is run, I have to say, they've left that blumbering bafoon "Bojo" looking like the useless living stealer that he is. 

[richard_smith237]

11 minutes ago, Pottinger said:

Around and around we go again, to no useful purpose. Those who are convinced Thailand has done a superb job, better than almost anywhere else, will remained convinced of it, though the country appears to have done very little differently from a host of other places. What about the hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from neighbouring countries? Singapore's and the Gulf States' experience with such people tell us that Thailand's lack of cases is difficult to reconcile with their experience.

Then there are theorists who believe that little testing results in few cases, or that deaths have been ascribed to other causes, or that bodies have been quickly cremated or disposed of to hide the virus' prevalence. And so on and so on.

Whats your point? or didn’t you have one? or was it that this is a pointless discussion because you think understanding or reading the opinions of others is irrelevant ???

 

Personally, I find it interesting that others have a view point which differs from mine, the holders of many of those different view points bring highly valid and interesting points to the discussion. 

[DefaultName]

I was one of those who was very sceptical about the figures.  However my wife has family all over Thailand and I'm hearing no reports of covid cases from them at all.  If it was out there killing people, I think I'd have heard. 

 

They say they're scared of it, but social distancing goes out the window with family and friends.

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Are Thailand's coronavirus numbers too good to be true?

While I admit Thailand seems to have got off lightly considering what was happening in early February, as with most figures they publish there seems to a tendency to be on the conservative side !

[Jingthing]

I think it's currently under good control here but there is always the risk of slippage with people relaxing about it too much as has happened to numerous countries that got too cocky about their numbers. 

 

But I just can't get my head around reports of zero cases of local transmission. How is that remotely believable short of a magic machine that scans the entire population daily for infection? 

 

It won't even be reasonable to expect zero infections after a vaccine!

 

It reminds me of "elections" in autocratic regimes where the winner gets 100 percent of the vote. It just doesn't add up. 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2020 by Jingthing

[Krataiboy]

9 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

Millions of cases in the states and I still don’t personally know anyone who’s had the virus, so what’s your comment supposed to prove? 

"Cases" is now used by the fear-mongering mass media to  mean anyone who has tested positive, as opposed to someone sick enough to be a hospital case.

 

Since most people get only mild or no symptoms, it is hardly surprising most of us know nobody who has been taken seriously ill or died of or even with COVID.

 

For a sense of perspective it is probably also worth noting that most COVID fatalities are among the extremely elderly who have already outlived the average for their particular country! 

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

36 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

interesting article from the Economist, might be  paywalled but there's ways around

 

 The Economist | The bat signal https://www.economist.com/node/21790007?frsc=dg%7Ce

 

People are wondering the same for SE Asia's low numbers, Vietnam, Cambodia, Lao, Thailand

It's not just Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand.

 

It's also China. Hong Kong academics in the Lancet showed China's figures were 4 times the official tally.

 

Not to mention Japan which made a purposeful effort to only test the minimal number of people, until they changed it due to major pressure.

 

All across Asia countries have basically made no serious attempt to test. Therefore their numbers can not be taken seriously.

 

The world's media is starting to get the hint.

Edited August 3, 2020 by Logosone

[DoctorG]

These are American numbers but they do show that Asians have a lower death rate by race.

Interesting but not necessarily directly relatable to the low Th numbers.

https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race

KEY FINDINGS (data collected through July 21):

• Overall, actual American death rates from COVID-19 data (aggregated from all states with available data and the District of Columbia) have reached new highs for all race groups:

  • 1 in 1,350 Black Americans has died (or 73.7 deaths per 100,000)

  • 1 in 1,650 Indigenous Americans has died (or 60.5 deaths per 100,000)

  • 1 in 2,100 Pacific Islander Americans has died (or 48.0 deaths per 100,000)

  • 1 in 2,700 Latino Americans has died (or 37.2 deaths per 100,000)

  • 1 in 3,100 White Americans has died (or 32.4 deaths per 100,000)

  • 1 in 3,250 Asian Americans has died (or 30.7 deaths per 100,000)

     

• Black Americans continue to experience the highest overall actual COVID-19 mortality rates— about 2.3 times as high as the rate for Whites and Asians, who have the lowest actual rates.

[tribalfusion001]

Thailand's older population are not obese like in western countries, not many slums with multiple generations living together, no care homes with people with residents having multiple underlying conditions like in the western countries.

 

It's easy to break down these countries with high death figures from the populations that live there, Brazil and India lots of slums, UK, USA, Spain, Italy, France lots of care homes and multiple generations living together as in immigrant families who are the poorest. What's happening in Melbourne is in the care homes.

 

Thailand, no care homes, not many slums and older people generally living in their own houses in the villages.

Edited August 3, 2020 by tribalfusion001

[hlj]

The last I read about the testing Thailand had only tested .03% which is next to no one. They did start testing new arrivals but at that if the virus test kits came from China with them being unreliable who knows how many people has the virus here or does not.   

[ukrules]

9 hours ago, robblok said:

True, but there are other factors that can counter those numbers. So while these numbers are indeed the only numbers that matter they are still not perfect. But the best we have. It shows all countries under reporting. 

In time we will be able to tell with more accuracy.

 

As these excess deaths catch up to normality there will now be 'too many' people dead, when this kind of large increase happens there is always a reduced number of deaths in the following flu season. When there is a period of a couple of years with reduced deaths for some reason it also catches up in a subsequent season.

 

Just watch out for that lull, this is when those who died of COVID would normally have died of some other illness.

 

The hospitals in the EU are going to be quiet this next winter flu season

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, hlj said:

The last I read about the testing Thailand had only tested .03% which is next to no one. They did start testing new arrivals but at that if the virus test kits came from China with them being unreliable who knows how many people has the virus here or does not.   

They have actually tested 1% now. It's of course still ridiculously low. Iceland has tested 20%, Germany 8%.

 

I would say if you have 99% of the population not tested your numbers are not even worthy of being considered at all. It's pointless. They're not an accurate reflection of the real situation.

 

We know from excess death figures Thailand has lost at least 2400 to 8400 people in excess of normal deaths.

[mike787]

not, they are real....

[Enoon]

10 hours ago, ravip said:

What would be the advantage to ANY government by hiding figures about this virus?

Can a government alone handle the situation without the cooperation of its citizens?

Is it possible for any government to hide mass deaths, if it is happening?

Can infected patients be hidden in public hospitals?

(Not trying to prove anything, just asking!)

 

The answer to your questions: A culture of Coercion, Compliance, Deference and outright Fear, and a heavily indoctrinated/propagandised concept of national "exceptionality".

 

See how well the LM laws have worked in the past?

 

See how well the criminal defamation laws have worked, and how they could be applied now?

 

See how well the Computer Crime Act Works?

 

See how well the Emergency Decree works?

 

And who, working within the Thai State System and enjoying its benefits, is going to "whistle blow" when they know what they will lose and what punishment they will receive by doing so?

 

All guaranteed to wrap up and shut up conversation and the dissemination of "bad ideas".

 

50,000 dead here in the UK and yet hardly any of us have experienced it in our circle of relationships.

 

All that has "told" most of us about it is a free press, free speech from our health workers, the effect of the restrictions placed upon our usual activities/movements, and our willingness to acknowledge and discuss (privately, publicly, openly, by state officials, journalists and members of the general public) what has been going on, regardless of its effect upon our "image".

 

But you're living behind the "Thai Curtain".

 

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2020 by Enoon

[kokopelli]

10 hours ago, ezzra said:

Go to Pattaya and see how almost no one wears masks and not to mention social distancing, what is the real truth? no one really knows, but as it is, its suits me fine...

In Pattaya most people do wear masks. However as time goes on, I notice that some are using them below the nose, or as chin staps.

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

All deaths matter insofar as all lives matter (pardon the pun - not intentional and does not mean I am opposed to BLM - so anyone replying see the context) however at the same time death is the end of all life. How it comes to an end and obsessing over counts does not seem constructive to me.

Well it is extremely constructive. How do you suggest governments develop policies about Covid19 if they don't have accurate figures on deaths from Covid19?

 

It's not "obsessing" it's the freaking responsible thing to do to get accurate death figures in the middle of a pandemic.

 

One would think that was obvious.

[Presnock]

I too have been suspicious but, looking at all the different news about the spread of the virus in other countries (I.e. USA, Europe, Africa, SA and now India and the start again in Korea, China, Japan) I notice that the "experts" on viruses have said that the virus that spread in Eur and US and now going around is different than the first virus from China and South East Asia.  The original virus was not as contagious nor as strong, meaning one had to meet more germs to actually get it.  In Thailand, during Jan/Feb timeframe there were a reported 500,000 Chinese from Wuhan area touring Thailand.  I notice that the experts say the virus now going around the world and showing up again in Asia is the more contagious virus and apparently affects everyone differently.  Also it appears that from blood samples of 5 years ago (free of covid-19) show that 35% of that tested had antibodies present for this corona viruses and might enable some to be immune to the disease or have almost not symptoms at all.  The experts all agree that they learn something new every day about this virus.  Since Thailand locked down with the possibly weaker original virus that may be why they were able to control it.  Other Asian nations too locked down early and had it under control but this new virus seems to be creeping into their countries.  Thailand still is totally locked down for intl visitors and though surprised, it seems almost all Thais are actually wearing masks.  Maybe the numbers are actually pretty close to being correct.    Hope so too, and believe that with the schools open now, we will soon find out as social media will be swamped with any reports of kids getting infected at schools!

 

[Skeptic7]

Everything in Thailand is suspect and needs serious scrutiny, but seems they escaped the Wuhan Flu in spite of themselves and history of bad policy and decision making. 

[Logosone]

45 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I guess all of the news stories about Covid parties and of teen deaths are fake in your book.

He has a point actually, Covid parties are not a thing, it's fake news. Look it up:

 

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-parties-are-not-a-thing/

 

 

[rabang]

55 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I guess all of the news stories about Covid parties and of teen deaths are fake in your book. Sorry to hear, but there has been nothing to say that these deaths are fake or the circumstances surrounding them are as you say.  More for you to digest.

 

The doctor said she had heard from an unidentified nurse that an unidentified patient, suffering of a disease affecting the lungs, had managed to say the following and you believe it?

 

 

"Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said 'I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it's not,'"