Covid-19 'may claim 5 million lives' by year-end

[rooster59]

Covid-19 'may claim 5 million lives' by year-end

By The Nation

 

Dr Yong Poovorawan, an expert virologist at Chulalongkorn University

 

The number of Covid-19 cases worldwide by the end of this year is expected to be over 50 million people, while the death toll could exceed 5 million, Dr Yong Poovorawan, an expert virologist at Chulalongkorn University, said on Friday (August 21).

 

 

He said though Thailand had been free from Covid-19 for almost 90 days, the situation in other countries still poses challenges.

 

According to statistics on Saturday (August 22), a total of 23.1 million people had been infected, 802,950 people had died, and 15,7 people had recovered.

 

"Considering the rise in the number of cases, we expect Covid-19 cases worldwide at the end of this year to be over 50 million people, while the death toll is expected to be up to 5 million people," he said.

 

"Covid-19 antiviral drug and vaccine are the only hope to overcome this crisis. We believe that vaccine development will be completed by the end of this year as more than six companies are conducting the third phase of clinical trials on humans."

 

Regarding two Thai returnees who tested positive for Covid-19 after completing their 14-day quarantine, he said Thailand had been free from Covid-19 for over 80 days.

 

"Meanwhile, Covid-19 tests on people who were in contact with these returnees were negative, so it is possible that these returnees had been infected from overseas," he said.

 

"The Covid-19 test on returnees may have been negative at first, but turned positive later because they carried only a small amount of genetic viral material that was difficult to detect."

 

He added that the current Covid-19 testing was very fast and accurate, thanks to advanced technology that enabled medical personnel to search for genetic viral material.

 

"However, they may not have found the genetic viral material because the viral material may remain in a spot where medical personnel cannot swab, so it is not a surprise if the Covid-19 test on some people may be negative at first, but turn positive later," he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30393374

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-08-23

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

9 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

"Meanwhile, Covid-19 tests on people who were in contact with these returnees were negative, so it is possible that these returnees had been infected from overseas,"

of course, only returnees and dirty farang spread the virus, while

thailand is been kept clean and pure thanks to the great government support.

[madmitch]

Does everything this man says get published in the press? Is he Thailand's only expert virologist as whenever I see a headline like this I see his picture.

[Paiman]

They should include suicides.

 

The media is becoming the virus. They know anything with * covid * is likely to be a well read topic.

[Bluetongue]

Death rate floating at around 5/6000 a day that would be about 720000 for the rest of the year 1.5 million total unless the rate goes up 600% he will be wrong. By the way Australia counts anybody who is Covid positive as a death, even the many in palliative care. Ie the medical profession has already decided not to treat them as they will die shortly, then they get Covid, that is a Covid death

[bert bloggs]

3 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Death rate floating at around 5/6000 a day that would be about 720000 for the rest of the year 1.5 million total unless the rate goes up 600% he will be wrong. By the way Australia counts anybody who is Covid positive as a death, even the many in palliative care. Ie the medical profession has already decided not to treat them as they will die shortly, then they get Covid, that is a Covid death

they have done that in the UK as well ,a friends father was dying of cancer almost gone ,but they put down covid ,as he tested positive when he died , was days from death anyway.

[Bender Rodriguez]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

According to statistics on Saturday (August 22), a total of 23.1 million people had been infected, 802,950 people had died, and 15,7 people had recovered.

this dude is so bad in math

 

if double of now, it would be 2 million max

 

but old sick people marked for death in the next 6 months, have already died, they cannot die twice, can they?

[bkk6060]

Golly, but what about a compare to road deaths?

Edited August 23, 2020 by bkk6060

[mtls2005]

11 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Death rate floating at around 5/6000 a day that would be about 720000 for the rest of the year 1.5 million

 

Yep.

 

Dr. Yong may need new glasses?

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, madmitch said:

Does everything this man says get published in the press? Is he Thailand's only expert virologist as whenever I see a headline like this I see his picture.

Yes and yes.He's the company's man of the moment and would be heavily invested in the vaccine program I would imagine and is rustling up potential customers.

[PatOngo]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

Covid-19 'may claim 5 million lives' by year-end

World War III....China vs The World! ????

[tomazbodner]

With the brain cells put to waste in the West, that's actually possible.

 

I just saw invite from my birth country where people are calling for intentional ignoring of social distancing and mask wearing in closed spaces, because "virus doesn't exist" and it is their "constitutional right" not to wear mask, and if they have to pay a fine, "fines are unconstitutional" which they promise they'll get refunded. They plan "spontaneous" no-mask wearing at major shopping centres, hospitals, retirement homes, kindergartens, schools, public transport... What I saw were screenshots from Facebook Live session but with names covered up.

 

Interestingly, forums there are full of conspiracy theories about some chip planting in your brain, and all this virus being a Worldwide conspiracy to control people, etc. A bit of googling showed they say the same about HIV - that HIV doesn't exist, tests are just some random <deleted> that don't actually detect anything, and that apparently even guy who invented it (imagine - there's a guy who claims to have INVENTED the virus!) even claims nobody has ever died of a virus. A bit of a contradiction to a paragraph earlier where it said virus didn't exist.

 

But the point is - with this kind of attitude, with numbers growing out of proportion in many parts of the World... this could get bad really quickly. Right now, majority of people infected in Europe are in 15-25 years age group. Generally these will just have a mild cold or no symptoms at all. But what happens when they start, with intentional discarding of prevention measures, infecting those in high risk groups? Then the numbers mentioned by virologist no longer look so unbelievable.

[GeorgeCross]

impossible, i was told it was just the flu and the flu only kills 600K/year 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Dr Yong Poovorawan, an expert virologist at Chulalongkorn University

Is this the best they can really do, sad state of affairs when so called experts show just how dumb they are. A reflection of the standards in Thai Universities

 

Chulalongkorn University world University rankings for 2020 = 801

 

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/chulalongkorn-university

[brucec64]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Golly, but what about a compare to road deaths?

That is so original. In six months of covid, you are exactly the first person to come up with this faulty comparison logical fallacy. Congratulations on your creative thinking.  Please follow up with how covid is just like the flu.

[owenm]

Sometimes logic and numbers don't always equate. 

 

Last week the world Covid-19 infected cases hit 20 million. 

From Jan 2020 to July, in 6 months, there were 10 million cases, but it DOUBLED to 20 million cases 6 weeks later. 

 

Where will we be by year's end? If it doubles every 6 weeks, 4 weeks, 2 weeks, one week.. Anyone's guess.. 

[Flying Saucage]

2 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Death rate floating at around 5/6000 a day that would be about 720000 for the rest of the year 1.5 million total unless the rate goes up 600% he will be wrong. By the way Australia counts anybody who is Covid positive as a death, even the many in palliative care. Ie the medical profession has already decided not to treat them as they will die shortly, then they get Covid, that is a Covid death

He acts as mouthpiece of the junta and has the duty to create panic and to cultivate the Thais paranoia about Covid.

[Ty Hareways]

It may indeed, however i wonder how many of them will be from starvation, suicides(depression,etc), common flu(blag),murder(killing people for money to buy food etc),i could go on....it's a joke this, never been so embarrassed with the wet lettuce-ness of human beings (not all obviously).

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The flu killed 30-50 million one year so it's just the flu.The number of deaths from the flu varies each year.

 

Stop posting fake information. Max 650k die yearly from influenza. Sometimes much less. 

 

 

[321 BOOM]

If so...and what ? 9.5million people dying of cancer per year. Get the right perspective guys.

[Siamjim]

while Thais killing each other on the road daily more than the total country's C19 deaths

[Flying Saucage]

12 minutes ago, Siamjim said:

while Thais killing each other on the road daily more than the total country's C19 deaths

Covid-19, the grand theatre and drama in Thailand! Thais need such dramas as much as they need their daily soap operas in TV. No common sense in this country of lies and propaganda.

 

Sad for us who love this country.

[MRToMRT]

So we are currently at 800,000 and he thinks we may hit 5 Million in next 4 months ???  I try to be positive but this kind of biased hysteria nonsense just gets my goat. Retire the geriatric.

[PatOngo]

6 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

they cannot die twice, can they?

Well look at how many people believe that Jesus was resurrected! ????

[oompie69]

Anybody living near temples that do cremations heard any major increase in Boom- Boom-Boom in the mornings or afternoons?

There would have to be a noticeable increase in this if Thailand is fudging the statistics, would there not?

Any comments on this? 

[Flying Saucage]

1 minute ago, oompie69 said:

Anybody living near temples that do cremations heard any major increase in Boom- Boom-Boom in the mornings or afternoons?

There would have to be a noticeable increase in this if Thailand is fudging the statistics, would there not?

Any comments on this? 

Thailand is as good or as bad as most other well performing countries, let's say in Europe, or let's say like Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea....

 

What do you expect regarding boom-boom-boom with 5-10 additionaly deaths per day, in the whole country, as they have in Europe right now?

 

Do you really mean in Europe the crematories are overwhelmed with 5-10 additional deaths per day in a country, in countries with 50 to 80 million people like Italy, Germany, Poland, UK?

 

Covid-19, the grand theatre and drama in Thailand!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

12 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Death rate floating at around 5/6000 a day that would be about 720000 for the rest of the year 1.5 million total unless the rate goes up 600% he will be wrong. By the way Australia counts anybody who is Covid positive as a death, even the many in palliative care. Ie the medical profession has already decided not to treat them as they will die shortly, then they get Covid, that is a Covid death

 

The current Johns Hopkins chart I'm seeing for world CV daily deaths isn't showing any exponential growth in CV deaths over time... it's been pretty much bouncing along at relatively consistent levels, as you mentioned, for some time.

 

Unless something drastically changes in the months ahead, I don't see the "official" death count getting anywhere close to the OP's 5 million figure. On the other hand, there's lots of opinions out there that worldwide deaths are being undercounted, significantly in some places, because countries don't want to admit they're having any (or much of any) problem.

 

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

The cumulative deaths chart seems to show about 650,000 total deaths over the past four months. If that volume continued over the coming 4 months thru the end of the calendar year (assuming little to no growth rate), we'd end up right around your 1.5 million projection.

 

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

I've seen one MIT estimate that says the worldwide tally of CV deaths may be 50% higher than the official tally. But that still wouldn't seem to get things anywhere near 5 million.

 

Quote

A 57-page research paper from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology claims the real number of coronavirus cases worldwide is nearly 12 times higher than officially reported — with approximately 50% more deaths.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/02/actual-number-of-coronavirus-deaths-is-likely-far-higher-than-official-tally-studies-suggest/

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635047

 

Quote

 

Estimating COVID-19 Under-Reporting Across 86 Nations: Implications for Projections and Control

 

COVID-19 prevalence and mortality remain uncertain. For all 86 countries with reliable testing data we estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral responses to risk shape pandemic dynamics. Estimated cumulative cases and deaths through 10 July 2020 are 10.5 and 1.47 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.65%, with wide variation across nations. Despite underestimation, herd immunity remains distant.

 

Sufficient early testing could have averted 39.7 (35.3-45.3) million cases and 218 (191-257) thousand deaths. Responses to perceived risk cause the reproduction number to settle near 1, but with very different steady-state incidence, while some nations experience endogenous rebounds. Scenarios through March 2021 show modest enhancements in responsiveness could reduce cumulative cases ≈80%, to 271 (254-412) million across these nations.

 

 

The 1.47 times CV deaths compared to official reports mentioned in the abstract is where the "approximately 50%" reference above comes from.

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[robbioff]

12 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Death rate floating at around 5/6000 a day that would be about 720000 for the rest of the year 1.5 million total unless the rate goes up 600% he will be wrong. By the way Australia counts anybody who is Covid positive as a death, even the many in palliative care. Ie the medical profession has already decided not to treat them as they will die shortly, then they get Covid, that is a Covid death

I had a feeling he was talking out of his bottom...

[vermin on arrival]

This guy is the number one virologist fear monger in the country. No way it will hit that number. I mostly just read articles with his photo on it to have a good laugh and know what not to believe.