'Polishing the gun': China, U.S. tensions raise Taiwan conflict fears

[Almer]

14 hours ago, SteveK said:

China has the bigger army, but can't help but think that they'd get flattened by the USA.

I don't think the size of the army will be the deciding factor in a conflict, for the next 3 months Trump is holding the key and looking for blood, in the UK  BJ ( dam where did i put that key) will be pleased with a different daily headline in the press and S Korea with the sister now apparently having a say in things, it will all end in tears.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Almer
Spelling

[sanuk711]

14 hours ago, misterjames said:

the world will fight along side America

Like they did the last time you attacked an Asian country---Vietnam..... Do not remember Britain or any European country jumping into that one..

[sanuk711]

I don't think you have to worry about a war with China if Trump doesn't win the next election......Joe will give them a good telling off,.......(if he remembers)

 

Google**

Joe Biden’s son listed as director at China-backed equity firm, government filings show

• Former US vice-president Joe Biden’s son is listed as a director of a state-backed equity fund in China, official government filings show
• Pictures of Hunter Biden have been removed from the website of BHR Equity Investment Fund Management Company, but role is unchanged
•  

What was Clinton's policy with China?

Clinton's highest priority was to maintain trade with China, boost American exports, expand investment in the huge Chinese market, and create more jobs at home. By granting China temporary most favoured nation status in 1993, his administration minimized tariff levels in Chinese imports.

[Eric Loh]

48 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

China are now on the charm offensive. The wolf warrior diplomacy didn't work (who'd have thunk trying to bully countries with cultures who don't like bullies would have been a bad idea?)

 

China is going nowhere near Taiwan. They have more than enough problems at home and the party are turning on Xi. Wanna hurt a soulless regime who lead through fear? Hit them in the pocket. Genocidal maniacs. 

If you mean soft power, I agree. China has never advocate hard power policies like US. They never fought an external war and has no army based in foreign countries. China is not interested in global dominance militarily and not building their military for such expansionist ambition. China only has 2 aircraft carriers and has no forward logistic bases. However they will never yield to foreign intervention nor intimidation in their domestic Taiwan issue. I only wish that the Taiwan issue will be a diplomatic solution. Both sides have lots to lose and little to gain in a direct confrontation.   
 

China has economic problems same as others in this pandemic. However they have manage the pandemic well and their economy is turning around nicely while the west is still have yet to get a grip of the virus and their economy. China’s future is looking good with a rising middle class and a large population. They will eclipse US soon as the world largest economy. Xi is much revered in China for his steadfast nationalism and his philosophies are etched into national constitution. Only 2 past presidents have their philosophy written into the constitution - Mao and Deng. 
 

 

[rkidlad]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

If you mean soft power, I agree. China has never advocate hard power policies like US. They never fought an external war and has no army based in foreign countries. China is not interested in global dominance militarily and not building their military for such expansionist ambition. China only has 2 aircraft carriers and has no forward logistic bases. However they will never yield to foreign intervention nor intimidation in their domestic Taiwan issue. I only wish that the Taiwan issue will be a diplomatic solution. Both sides have lots to lose and little to gain in a direct confrontation.   
 

China has economic problems same as others in this pandemic. However they have manage the pandemic well and their economy is turning around nicely while the west is still have yet to get a grip of the virus and their economy. China’s future is looking good with a rising middle class and a large population. They will eclipse US soon as the world largest economy. Xi is much revered in China for his steadfast nationalism and his philosophies are etched into national constitution. Only 2 past presidents have their philosophy written into the constitution - Mao and Deng. 
 

 

That's not what I meant.

 

Again, China isn't going anywhere near Taiwan. They showed their cards far too early and now they f***** themselves. The world sees them now for that they are. Bullying, lying genocidal maniacs. 

[Eric Loh]

14 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

That's not what I meant.

 

Again, China isn't going anywhere near Taiwan. They showed their cards far too early and now they f***** themselves. The world sees them now for that they are. Bullying, lying genocidal maniacs. 

Show their cards early!!! Taiwan political status was challenged as far back as in 1945 civil war in China. By 1971, most sovereign countries in UN have dropped diplomatic relationship with ROC for PRC. Try to keep up. 

[rkidlad]

9 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Show their cards early!!! Taiwan political status was challenged as far back as in 1945 civil war in China. By 1971, most sovereign countries in UN have dropped diplomatic relationship with ROC for PRC. Try to keep up. 

Eric, you're on every thread about China on here. No one is buying what you're selling. Give it a rest, yea? 

[Eric Loh]

12 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

Eric, you're on every thread about China on here. No one is buying what you're selling. Give it a rest, yea? 

I am only trying to educate you. You should be thanking me. 

[rkidlad]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I am only trying to educate you. You should be thanking me. 

Okay, Xi. 

[wwest5829]

16 hours ago, SteveK said:

China has the bigger army, but can't help but think that they'd get flattened by the USA.

Like Korea, Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan? Guess history makes me more humble ... less sure of outcome ...

[billd766]

9 hours ago, candide said:

Ok, maybe they have annoyed the entire world. 

 

Now the key question: who is willing to die for Taiwan?

Not me chief, and hopefully not my old country, the UK. The Usa had lead the UK into more than enough wars over the past 20 or 30 years.

 

3 hours ago, PatOngo said:

wrong post sorry.

 

[billd766]

3 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Have you forgotten Okinawa, Guam?

Not forgotten Okinawa, 

 

Distance from Okinawa to Wenzhou is 723 kilometers.
This air travel distance is equal to 449 miles. The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between Okinawa and Wenzhou is 723 km= 449 miles.

 

Or Guam

 

The distance between Guam and China is 4,751 kilometers (2,952 miles).

 

Once the supplies on Okinawa are used up you still have the same resupply problem.

 

2 hours ago, car720 said:

you overlooked Japan.

Not really. 

This air travel distance is equal to 1,898 miles. The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between China and Japan is 3,054 km= 1,898 miles. 

 

You have a similar problem as before. If the Japanese allow the USA to fly from its bases to attack China you need aircraft with a radius of attack from Japan of at least 5,000 miles to give some loiter time in case the suppression aircraft haven't cleared the target area. You will also need a fair amount of refuelling tankers too.

 

Have a look at the USA military and what they have in the way of equipment available and it may open your eyes as to how stretched the US forces are spread across the world. Never mind what Trump says or wants to do, look at what equipmwnt is available to do it with.

 

Back in the 1980s during the Falklands war it took a total of 11 air refuels to get 1 Vulcan bomber to the Falklands and back.

 

If there is an air war around China the Chinese will lose many aircraft and not so many crews whereas if the "allies" lose aircraft the won't be many aircrews saved. China can get more aircraft from within their own borders whilst the allies will need to replace them from a distance.

[AgMech Cowboy]

14 hours ago, fangless said:

Chinese boots can be on the Taiwanese ground long before any opposition or so called allies could interfere.

You seem to believe that Taiwan is defenseless. There will be many aerial and sea engagements long before boots get on the ground. Sure they could drop from the sky, but I don't see them doing this.

14 hours ago, fangless said:

The so called allies did nothing when Russians again annexed it's neighbours in it's sphere of influence so why would they interfere in China's sphere of influence? 

The so called allies are the EU (and NATO) and Obama's USA. (You know the same Obama that got caught with an open microphone telling Medvedev that he (Obama) would have more flexibility to negotiate (missile defense, etc.) after the U.S. election that November (2012). The Ukraine didn't have any allies. Obama and Biden sent them blankets. 

 

So, all China needs to do is hope for a Biden election to president. They won't budge as long as President Trump is still there.  ????

[AgMech Cowboy]

Seeing as how reckless some of the CCP ship Captains and jet pilots have interacted with US ships and planes, I suspect any "Polishing the Gun" incident will come from the CCP.

[Eric Loh]

8 minutes ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

So, all China needs to do is hope for a Biden election to president. They won't budge as long as President Trump is still there.  ????

The Taiwan political status has not budged in the last 12 POTUS tenure. Biden will continue that tradition. 

[holy cow cm]

Any offensive military course of action from the China cockroach military commie government, then Taiwan will certainly not be alone, and China will certainly lose a lot in this altercation. From my point of view, the sooner the better and let China sink back into being alone, or the best case scenario would be that during or directly after this war, if the Chinese people had enough and all banded together and crushed the Commie suppressive B-Turds from within starting a new friendly China with new warm government would be welcomed in this new world. I think everyone has literally just had enough of their pushing and suppressive BS. Maybe except the rich who love to kissy poo with them making more money.

[billd766]

8 minutes ago, car720 said:

what about the carriers?

 

A good idea until you realise how many extra ships it takes just to support one carrier.

 

This link may give you some idea.

 

https://science.howstuffworks.com/carrier-group2.htm

 

A supply ship
The supply ship carries fuel, food and ammunition for the group.

 

So if you take out the supply ship you have done enormous amount of damage to the carrier group.

Edited August 27, 2020 by billd766
Bad spelling

[Bannoi]

Would it not be easier and less costly to simply ban anything produced or originating in China or impose something like 5000% tariffs on anything from China in effect decimating their economy.

[fangless]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

 

A good idea until you realise how many extra ships it takes just to support one carrier.

 

This link may give you some idea.

 

https://science.howstuffworks.com/carrier-group2.htm

 

A supply ship
The supply ship carries fuel, food and ammunition for the group.

 

So if you take out the supply ship you have done enormous amount of damage to the carrier group.

There is a lot more than just one supply ship in the Strike group fleet train and it's own escorts.

[candide]

54 minutes ago, Bannoi said:

Would it not be easier and less costly to simply ban anything produced or originating in China or impose something like 5000% tariffs on anything from China in effect decimating their economy.

No, because we are not solely in an economy of products, but also of global production and supply chains.

There are a lot of products made outside China which include Chinese components and a lot of Chinese products which include foreign components. It would also affect other economies because of product and supplies shortage, production chains stopped, etc...

That's basically why Trumps tariff policy has been ineffective: the trade deficit with China is still about the same as in 2016, mainly because the US industry needs products and components made in China.

Edited August 27, 2020 by candide

[candide]

2 hours ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

You seem to believe that Taiwan is defenseless. There will be many aerial and sea engagements long before boots get on the ground. Sure they could drop from the sky, but I don't see them doing this.

The so called allies are the EU (and NATO) and Obama's USA. (You know the same Obama that got caught with an open microphone telling Medvedev that he (Obama) would have more flexibility to negotiate (missile defense, etc.) after the U.S. election that November (2012). The Ukraine didn't have any allies. Obama and Biden sent them blankets. 

 

So, all China needs to do is hope for a Biden election to president. They won't budge as long as President Trump is still there.  ????

The Chinese have time on their side. They don't need to hurry up. They don't care who is President. The more time they wait, the more powerful they become. They will wait until they think it's the right time to do it. Likely before 2035.

[misterjames]

7 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

Like they did the last time you attacked an Asian country---Vietnam..... Do not remember Britain or any European country jumping into that one..

You are comparing apples and oranges two very different situations. If I have to explain why this is a very different situation I fear that you have not been paying attention and I would be wasting my time. 

[billd766]

3 hours ago, fangless said:

There is a lot more than just one supply ship in the Strike group fleet train and it's own escorts.

Of course they would but that means more ships, sailors and targets. They won't be sailing that fast and will make a large target on a spy satellite that they won't be able to hide.

 

What I am trying to explain is that there will be no surprise attacks as the troops, ships and aircraft will show up on satellite of both sides long before they actually do something. 

Edited August 27, 2020 by billd766
Bad spelling

[kingdong]

7 hours ago, rkidlad said:

That's not what I meant.

 

Again, China isn't going anywhere near Taiwan. They showed their cards far too early and now they f***** themselves. The world sees them now for that they are. Bullying, lying genocidal maniacs. 

china isn,t going anywhere?what like russia in ukraine,,who nato said give up your nuclear weapons,we,ll protect you.

[Scott]

A post with an altered quote has been removed.  Do not change anything inside the quote box, including bold.  

 

[Scott]

Off-topic post removed. 

 

[spidermike007]

There is no question that China is flexing its muscles and will continue to do so long into the future. It appears they are simply trying to reclaim their rightful place in history as they see it, considering that they lorded over the seas for quite a number of centuries.

 

As far as the US coming to the rescue of Taiwan that remains to be seen. On paper the US has a pretty tremendous army, navy and Air Force and they're quite impressive. However, they have not won a single conflict since World War II they're highly untested, and as the response to covid and Hurricane Maria and other recent events have shown, the level of competence may not be exactly where it needs to be. In the case of an outright conflict who on Earth knows what the result would be.

 

Also, many are not taking into account China's superior cyber warfare capabilities, no major war has ever been conducted with major cyber warfare enemies, and we just don't know the extent to which they could take out major satellites, electrical grids and other essential services required to conduct a war.

There are alot of variables that are unknowns at this time, and just making assumptions based on size and budgets may be quite a fools errand. Personally, as an American I have little confidence in the competence of our armed forces. 

[EVENKEEL]

On 8/26/2020 at 5:28 AM, billd766 said:

Unfortunately under Trump's auspices (nounARCHAIC
plural noun: auspices
a divine or prophetic token) he has p1ssed off many of Americas allies around the world so not so many will be willing to side with him.

 

The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.Oct 8, 2015.

 

The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan also administers a number of smaller islands known as the Kinmen archipelago, or Kinmen County. Great Kinmen Island and its neighbor islets are on the other side of the strait, in a harbor just east of the port city of Xiamen, practically surrounded by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—in some places barely more than a mile apart.

 

That gives China a very short logistic chain of about 160 km and the USA a very long one of 

 

Distance from United States to Taiwan is 12,261 kilometers.
The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between United States and Taiwan is 12,261 km= 7,619 miles.

 

That basically means that every litre of fuel, round of ammunition, food rations etc which takes China a couple of hours to deliver might take the USA weeks to deliver assuming that they they have enough ships and crews to man them.

 

Yes it is possible to resupply by air transport but the cost will be horrendous and will involve in-flight refuelling, a large number of close support and distant air defence fighters ( which will also need refuelling).

 

Where are the nearest US friendly country to China? Japan, S Korea, Australia all of which are a fair distance from Taiwan.

 

I see that some of the keyboard warriors are onto this already.

 

Do you realize the US has a fleet of civilian run US Navy ships constantly standing by with supplies - bullets, food and fuel and that's not to mention the ships anchored in strategic locations loaded with war supplies. 

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by EVENKEEL

[billd766]

5 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

Do you realize the US has a fleet of civilian run US Navy ships constantly standing by with supplies - bullets, food and fuel and that's not to mention the ships anchored in strategic locations loaded with war supplies. 

 

 

 

Yes I do know that, but do you know where they are, what condition they are in, what their loads are, are they fully crewed and can up anchor at a moments notice. Are the right loads in the right order.

 

It is very expensive for any country to maintain a standing fleet to sit around and do nothing.

 

The USA does seem to have a lot of ships at its disposal according to this link. They also have a lot of oceans to cover.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_United_States_Navy#:~:text=The United States Navy has,Vessel Register and published reports.

[from the home of CC]

On 8/26/2020 at 7:19 PM, SteveK said:

China has the bigger army, but can't help but think that they'd get flattened by the USA.

China would sacrifice many more of it's own citizen than the US would even contemplate, therefore imo the US doesn't have the public will nor the cojones to take them on..