The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[LaoPo]

Didn't I just say the the US bond yields have risen to more than 5 percent?

Good boy! Now you understand why the investors didn't want to invest in Thai bonds with a yield below 4.9%.

If the BoT would have followed the international bond markets a little closer they wouldn't have held an auction in the first place and 'blame' in investors.

A Central bank...blaming the investors. Good joke.

LaoPo

LaoPo, what's what I alluded to ages ago. Please read and think a bit. The point of the original argument was whether investors really no longer wanted to finance Thai gov't debt as some pathetic spin life form calimed, or it was just a simple matter of supply and demand. And I didn't see the BoT blaming anyone. They just said the investors were asking too high a yield for them. That's all. That's what I said too. Again, please read and think if you can.

Well, this is what the article said:

"June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Thailand canceled a scheduled 5 billion baht ($152.4 million) bond sale today because investors demanded too high a yield at the auction, the bank said."

"because investors demanded...."

Strong words for a Central Bank, putting the blame to the investors, whilst doing a miserable job themselves...

But, I realize, it's a way to try to save face.

They could have said: "..because investors can reach higher yields elsewhere...." but that wouldn't have been appropriate, would it ?

LaoPo

the bank canceled the bond because the investors demanded a higer yield.

i cant see any where it says the bank "blames"them or is it your interpetation

and why are they doing miserable job themselves..?? it is the job of the central bank to get the loan from investors and give back as little yield as possible back. thats why they auction it. if there ae no bidders then it is cancelled.

they did not blame anyone or made any acusations they just canceled it.

the investors have the right to demand a high yield and Thailand has the right to demand low yield. there is no one to blame.

if the govermant was realy stressed for money as some other countries are then they will offer a higer yield to get the money. so it will seem that they are not so stresed for cash as other may be.

as to the above,I would like to offer the next headline.

a sales lady in MBK has rejected to sell a pair of jeans because the buyer was seeking a price cheaper then offered.

the lady said the the forign buyer has demanded that she drops the price and she has rejected this demand.

It's nice to see everybody has an own interpretation.

The car salesman says: " I sold a car"

The buyer says: " I bought a car"

But the BoT did a miserable job by 'planning' the auction and than canceling it because they didn't follow-up with the World Bond markets, the threatening rising -world wide- interest rates and the fear of upcoming, again: -world wide- inflation....apart from the Baht, which is also a high risk to investors.

Than to claim: "because investors demanded....-a higher yield-" is -in my opinion- blaming investors for not accepting their lower yields, instead of blaming themselves.

Aside the above: what kind of confidence do you think the BoT/CNS/Interim government have, in the eyes of the financial world ?

That's why they did a miserable job.

Just IMHO...

LaoPo

[soundman]

Than to claim: "because investors demanded....-a higher yield-" is -in my opinion- blaming investors for not accepting their lower yields, instead of blaming themselves.

Aside the above: what kind of confidence do you think the BoT/CNS/Interim government have, in the eyes of the financial world ?

That's why they did a miserable job.

Just IMHO...

LaoPo

It all comes down to the "we are in control - you will do as your told" attitude of the execs at the BOT.

Unfortunately this doesn't work with international markets. You'de think they learn't their lesson with the 30% currency retention fiasco.

Then when things don't work they try to find scapegoats.

Cheers,

Soundman.

[LaoPo]

But the BoT did a miserable job by 'planning' the auction and than canceling it because they didn't follow-up with the World Bond markets, the threatening rising -world wide- interest rates and the fear of upcoming, again: -world wide- inflation....apart from the Baht, which is also a high risk to investors.

To explain the above, please read this:

" At the end of February, the yield on the bonds was 4.5% and by Friday afternoon it stood at 5.14%, although it went as high as 5.25% earlier in the day.

That means that investors are less likely to invest in shares, because their return compared with a no-risk investment has deteriorated.

"Either you can take the same amount of risk for comparatively less reward or you can take a lot less risk for more reward," said David Bloom, global strategist at HSBC.

The yield is the percentage return you receive when you invest in something.

Bonds provide fixed returns, which means that when their prices go down, the yield goes up.

Treasury bond prices go down if interest rates are going up. "

From:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6733379.stm

A tough week for European shares

Mr Bernanke's comments boosted US Treasury bond yields

European stock markets ended a tough week under pressure as investors switched from shares to bonds.

The FTSE lost 2.6% in the week, the Dax fell 4.6% and the Cac closed 5.0% below last Friday's close.

Shares are being hit by the rising yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds, which increases the returns that investors can make without risk.

Enough said.

LaoPo

[highdiver]

It's nice to see everybody has an own interpretation.

The car salesman says: " I sold a car"

The buyer says: " I bought a car"

But the BoT did a miserable job by 'planning' the auction and than canceling it because they didn't follow-up with the World Bond markets, the threatening rising -world wide- interest rates and the fear of upcoming, again: -world wide- inflation....apart from the Baht, which is also a high risk to investors.

Than to claim: "because investors demanded....-a higher yield-" is -in my opinion- blaming investors for not accepting their lower yields, instead of blaming themselves.

Aside the above: what kind of confidence do you think the BoT/CNS/Interim government have, in the eyes of the financial world ?

That's why they did a miserable job.

Just IMHO...

LaoPo

I realy fail to see your view about this?

a goverment.... any goverment sells bonds at a yield. if the investors want they buy it if they want a higher yield then the goverment cancels the auction. this is not new and all goverments do this.

this auction was a schedualed one and was in the routine auctions of the bank.

why is the central bank wrong?

at the end of the day the goverment of thailand like any other goverment is borowing money. and to buy this money it is prepared to pay a yield. if the deal is expensive such as in cases when investors demand a higher yield the bank has 2 choices to raise the yield if the goverment is stressed for money or to cancel the auction.

As such the thai central bank is sending a clear message to the market that they are not stressed and will not buy money at any rate.

if you are going as a private person to any bank and the bank offers you an intrest for a long term deposit.

you are lending the bank the money and the bank pays you intrest or a yield for this money. if you demand a higher yield the bank will refuse you. as in the opposite case when you need to make a loan from the bank the bank will lend you the money for intrest and if you feel the bank is demanding to much intrest you will not borrow from tem. with bonds it the same thing.

once again I ask?

who did they blame? what did they do wrong by not buying money that costs them more?

the initial post was related to some hair brained idea that investors dont wish to continue fianacing the thai debt. I can sasure you they would love to do it. if you give them higher intrest rates they would love to give you any amount. and they would not care if it is the Junta, or you an me in power as long as they can make a profit.

[LaoPo]

Highdiver: as I said in my last post..."enough said".

This ping-pong game has no end.

The fact remains: BoT withdrew the auction as there were no buyers. Wrong timing by the BoT, simple.

I leave it with this.

LaoPo

[JR Texas]

Highdiver: as I said in my last post..."enough said".

This ping-pong game has no end.

The fact remains: BoT withdrew the auction as there were no buyers. Wrong timing by the BoT, simple.

I leave it with this.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

The Generals' Blunder

Another junta stumbles, this time in Thailand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html

[highdiver]

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html" target="_blank">

</a>

The Generals' Blunder

Another junta stumbles, this time in Thailand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html

hmmmm i wonder if the fact that THAKSIN is a friend of Leonard Downie, Jr editor of washington post has anyhting to do with how the paper views Thailand??

[blaze]

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html" target="_blank">

</a>

The Generals' Blunder

Another junta stumbles, this time in Thailand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html

hmmmm i wonder if the fact that THAKSIN is a friend of Leonard Downie, Jr editor of washington post has anyhting to do with how the paper views Thailand??

I'm sure it was. Nobody in the modern world would ever suggest that military dictatorships are a dangerous way to run a country unless of course they were paid by Thaksin.

[highdiver]

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html" target="_blank">

</a>

The Generals' Blunder

Another junta stumbles, this time in Thailand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html

hmmmm i wonder if the fact that THAKSIN is a friend of Leonard Downie, Jr editor of washington post has anyhting to do with how the paper views Thailand??

I'm sure it was. Nobody in the modern world would ever suggest that military dictatorships are a dangerous way to run a country unless of course they were paid by Thaksin.

there is a differnece between dictators and and interim goverment. the army took over with the approval of the king to stop THAKSIN from becoming a dictator.

lbut as you are so keen on totaliterian rule lets look at other non democratic unsecsefull countries. Singapore, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, they are all doing so bad.

[mumbu]

Mumbu, I'm sure they were polite to you because they haven't read what you said about Thailand on this forum. And please don't spread you lie about Thai students (especially the most patriotic ones?) don't wanna go back to Thailand. A bunch of my friends just went back over the last year or so. Typical BS.

The most patriotic Thai students in the US don't wanna go back to Thailand? What an oxymoron.

And what did I say about Thailand that could upset Thai students?

Can you quote. please? I think you went too far. I do not think anybody will take you seriously from now on. You just rude, stupid jerk and quite obviosly not Thai.

Most probably on junta payroll to spread all this nonsense and lies.

Edited June 10, 2007 by mumbu

[bingobongo]

hello highdiver, how many flavors does kool aid have? you remind me of kool aid man.....hoping others will sip

anway, 10,000 folks was apparantly a low number, .........

Demonstrators demand junta step down in Bangkok

The marchers' number grew along the way, and by the time they arrived at the Army headquarters at around 10 p.m.(1500 GMT), participants were estimated at more than 20,000, who blocked the road towards the Army headquarters as long as three kilometers

The Metropolitan Police earlier estimated that up to 9,000 protesters from the provinces might join the rally in the capital.

http

://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-06/...nt_6220996.htm

[Dakhar]

Mumbu, I'm sure they were polite to you because they haven't read what you said about Thailand on this forum. And please don't spread you lie about Thai students (especially the most patriotic ones?) don't wanna go back to Thailand. A bunch of my friends just went back over the last year or so. Typical BS.

The most patriotic Thai students in the US don't wanna go back to Thailand? What an oxymoron.

And what did I say about Thailand that could upset Thai students?

Can you quote. please? I think you went too far. I do not think anybody will take you seriously from now on. You just rude, stupid jerk and quite obviosly not Thai.

Most probably on junta payroll to spread all this nonsense and lies.

Come on Mumbo, I am sure they went back too... to pack of the rest of their comic books.

[cclub75]

Back to the topic gentlemen.

Today a very interesting piece about the condo market. The explanations of one boss of Kasikornbank allow us to understand the "paradox" we see daily on the streets of Bangkok : new condos built by hundred, sold out very quickly, but... empty.

"Chatchai believes the mix of real demand, investment and speculation is 60 per cent, 20-30 per cent and 10-20 per cent."

60 % is, from my point of view, an optimistic figure...

And the difference between "investment" and "speculation" is not clear. Anyway.

You're invited to say if a market with only 60 % of real demand is a "healthy market" or not.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/11...ss_30036498.php

The ping-pong shall continue.

Edited June 11, 2007 by cclub75

[highdiver]

so lets check the "crisis"

Chansak Fuangfu, senior executive vice president of Bangkok Bank, said last week that several condo projects located near mass-transit routes, particularly the Skytrain and subway, had sold out in just a few days, though each property had hundreds or thousands of units. Even subscription forms are in high demand.

on the country level low unemployment, high foreign reserves, and low foreign debt levels.

The National Economic and Social Development Board predicts that total exports this year will be USD 144.1 billion, up 12.4 percent year-on-year due to the high demand for Thai exports in major destinations in the first quarter. The current account has a surplus of USD 8.5 billion, 3.6 percent of GDP, up from the previous forecast of USD 3.1 billion.

yes there is definatly a "crisis"

As many as well as I posted before. Thailand is goingh through a slow down as is the rest of the world. but to call it crisis is going way and beyond.

oh i forgot that thailand also has a few farrangs that are very very unhappy, and they have no one to blame for this unhappines, so they take it out on the thai people and thailand posting arrogant posts on Thai visa using dooms day predictions with a sense of humor that can be referd to as a "morbid pessimistic sarcasm"

but in the Thai tradition we welcome them as well. we do need some entertainment.

[Mid]

Numbers and creativity down at annual advertising awards

snip

Parames Rajchaibun, the chairman of the 2007 Adman organising committee, said the uncertain economy was a factor behind the drop in entries. The industry itself has been feeling the pinch as marketers tighten their belts and budgets. In terms of total media spending, only 3% growth from last year's total of 90 billion baht is expected for an industry that has been used to double-digit annual expansion.

snip

my eyes are dim , I can not see ,

I have not brought my specs with me ..................................

[Jai Dee]

CIT Director affirms political instability damages economy

Director of the Center for International Trade Studies (CIT) of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Dr. Aat Pisanwanich (อัทธ์ พิศาลวานิช), affirms that the present political situation will have adverse impact on the economy.

Dr.Aat says the economic growth of the first half of 2007 remains at 4-4.5%, lower than the same period of last year. However, he expects that the economy will improve slightly in the third and fourth quarters or the period after the Constitution Tribunal has announced the verdicts of the party dissolution case.

In addition, the director reports that there are other factors contributing to the economic growth including consumer and investor confidence, government’s spending for grassroot people, interest rates, macro-economic policies, economic slowdowns, and trade barriers imposed by the country’s trading partners.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 11 June 2007

[Jai Dee]

Economic analysts questions status of Thai economy

A prominent economic lecturer at Rangsit University expressed doubts on the economic climate after the the Constitutional court has convicted Thai Rak Thai to dissolve.

Dr.Anusorn Tamajai (อนุสรณ์ ธรรมใจ), professor of economics at Rangsit University said that there are two extremes; either the economy will grow at 4.4 percent, or should dissolution case result in adverse impact on the political climate, the economy will swoop to a low of 3 percent. He further added that if the country witnesses a stability in politics and economy, the economc indicator will rise to a 3-3.5 percent. Dr Anusorn advised that the third of fourth quarter would be the best period for investment.

Dr.Anusorn suggests that the government should find ways to boost industries including real estate, property business, export and tourism sectors. Meanwhile the general election should be organized with transparency and fair to all.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 11 June 2007

[Prakanong]

Than to claim: "because investors demanded....-a higher yield-" is -in my opinion- blaming investors for not accepting their lower yields, instead of blaming themselves.

Aside the above: what kind of confidence do you think the BoT/CNS/Interim government have, in the eyes of the financial world ?

That's why they did a miserable job.

Just IMHO...

LaoPo

It all comes down to the "we are in control - you will do as your told" attitude of the execs at the BOT.

Unfortunately this doesn't work with international markets. You'de think they learn't their lesson with the 30% currency retention fiasco.

Then when things don't work they try to find scapegoats.

Cheers,

Soundman.

Exactly - its never them

Its at all levels of Thai society - they can not accept responsibility - period.

[Prakanong]

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html" target="_blank">

</a>

The Generals' Blunder

Another junta stumbles, this time in Thailand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/09/AR2007060901131.html

hmmmm i wonder if the fact that THAKSIN is a friend of Leonard Downie, Jr editor of washington post has anyhting to do with how the paper views Thailand??

You will be looking for reds under the bed next

Show me recent cases of a govt offering bonds and then withdrawing - only banana republics!

[jdinasia]

Than to claim: "because investors demanded....-a higher yield-" is -in my opinion- blaming investors for not accepting their lower yields, instead of blaming themselves.

Aside the above: what kind of confidence do you think the BoT/CNS/Interim government have, in the eyes of the financial world ?

That's why they did a miserable job.

Just IMHO...

LaoPo

It all comes down to the "we are in control - you will do as your told" attitude of the execs at the BOT.

Unfortunately this doesn't work with international markets. You'de think they learn't their lesson with the 30% currency retention fiasco.

Then when things don't work they try to find scapegoats.

Cheers,

Soundman.

Exactly - its never them

Its at all levels of Thai society - they can not accept responsibility - period.

:D Stereotype much? ... oh wait you are in Sg not Thailand right? :D :bah:

[Prakanong]

Than to claim: "because investors demanded....-a higher yield-" is -in my opinion- blaming investors for not accepting their lower yields, instead of blaming themselves.

Aside the above: what kind of confidence do you think the BoT/CNS/Interim government have, in the eyes of the financial world ?

That's why they did a miserable job.

Just IMHO...

LaoPo

It all comes down to the "we are in control - you will do as your told" attitude of the execs at the BOT.

Unfortunately this doesn't work with international markets. You'de think they learn't their lesson with the 30% currency retention fiasco.

Then when things don't work they try to find scapegoats.

Cheers,

Soundman.

Exactly - its never them

Its at all levels of Thai society - they can not accept responsibility - period.

Stereotype much? ... oh wait you are in Sg not Thailand right?

And you can not refute what I say?

Funny faces are no argument and a pitiful replacement of intellect!

Edited June 11, 2007 by Prakanong

[jdinasia]

LOL ... refute a stereotype? OK ... My partner and his family have a debt total of 0 Baht. his brother in law and that side of the family have a total debt of 0 Baht.

They take responsibility for all they do

Show up for work on time ... manage their money ... and don't cry about people in other countries

feel better?

Stereotypes are no argument and resorting to them is a pitiful replacement for intellect

Edited June 11, 2007 by jdinasia

[Mid]

Last Change Value(M.Baht)

SET Index 747.71 -4.29 7,006.22

SET100 Index 1,148.65 -7.92 5,380.35

SET50 Index 528.71 -3.45 3,959.08

mai Index 213.85 -2.11 51.13

below last weeks mythical support level ,

did you buy too soon samran ?

[Prakanong]

LOL ... refute a stereotype? OK ... My partner and his family have a debt total of 0 Baht. his brother in law and that side of the family have a total debt of 0 Baht.

They take responsibility for all they do

Show up for work on time ... manage their money ... and don't cry about people in other countries

feel better?

Stereotypes are no argument and resorting to them is a pitiful replacement for intellect

Good for you you are involved with a decent family - anywhere else it would not have to be defended!

Fleeinbg the scene is not a stereotype but a national trait.

Paper boys salaries are not the norm either

[jdinasia]

LOL ... refute a stereotype? OK ... My partner and his family have a debt total of 0 Baht. his brother in law and that side of the family have a total debt of 0 Baht.

They take responsibility for all they do

Show up for work on time ... manage their money ... and don't cry about people in other countries

feel better?

Stereotypes are no argument and resorting to them is a pitiful replacement for intellect

Good for you you are involved with a decent family - anywhere else it would not have to be defended!

Fleeinbg the scene is not a stereotype but a national trait.

Paper boys salaries are not the norm either

and again

Stereotypes are no argument and resorting to them is a pitiful replacement for intellect

[Prakanong]

LOL ... refute a stereotype? OK ... My partner and his family have a debt total of 0 Baht. his brother in law and that side of the family have a total debt of 0 Baht.

They take responsibility for all they do

Show up for work on time ... manage their money ... and don't cry about people in other countries

feel better?

Stereotypes are no argument and resorting to them is a pitiful replacement for intellect

Good for you you are involved with a decent family - anywhere else it would not have to be defended!

Fleeinbg the scene is not a stereotype but a national trait.

Paper boys salaries are not the norm either

and again

Stereotypes are no argument and resorting to them is a pitiful replacement for intellect

Whatever

[Jai Dee]

Now that's settled can we get back on topic please?

[Prakanong]

Now that's settled can we get back on topic please?

Hopefully - but I am going to Indochine for lunch and an afternoon off

[cclub75]

Some news about the train line between BKK and the airport.

-amazing delays : 50 % behind schedule

-amazing budget : Bt34.5 billion, including interest. That is over budget by one third.

-amazing "planning" (just 90 days to clear up all the land aound the line)

-amazing "revenue estimates": "They expected one of every four Suvarnabhumi passengers would use the link service. How could this be possible when Hong Kong's system attracts just 8.5 per cent - and that connects the whole city"

This means the SRT needs to find as much as Bt22.6 billion within the next few months. We are asking for a Cabinet solution." says State Railway of Thailand (SRT) deputy governor Nakorn Chanthasorn.

"If that's not paid, financial institutions could stop their support and construction will stop," Nakorn said.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/pag...amp;id=30036466