The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[highdiver]

just as a reminder to those who are gloomy

here is a summery of today.

Stocks are up as usual....

on the land sales :

Hemaraj Land Development Plc, the country's second-biggest industrial land developer, has raised its forecast for land sales in 2007 by 18% as producers of cars and petrochemicals expand their plants.

Land sales may rise to 1,000 rai from a previous forecast of 850 rai in March, CEO David Nardone said yesterday.

Hemaraj sold more land to companies that supply components to Toyota Motor Corp, which opened its third factory in Thailand this year.

export and BOI

Thailand's exports rose 21% in May to a record $13.1 billion as it shipped more automobiles and electronics parts. The Board of Investment, meanwhile, received 37% more applications to build new factories and other projects in the first five months of this year.

Nissan keeps commitment to Thailand

Thailand could continue to play an important role in the production of Nissan automobiles in the near future as long as production costs remain competitive, the company's chief said yesterday. ''Thailand's domestic market in our view will continue to grow significantly ... as Thailand's market is not a mature one yet,'' Carlos Ghosn, the high-profile chief executive officer of Nissan and its parent company Renault, said at a briefing in Bangkok.

Commenting on the ongoing political uncertainty and its impact on investment sentiment, Mr Ghosn said that he continued to view Thailand as a very attractive market

American businessmen happy with quality of life in Thailand

BANGKOK: -- Americans doing business in Thailand are highly satisfied with the quality of life and low-cost labour, while they are moderately satisfied with the Kingdom's infrastructure, availability of raw materials and trained personnel, cost of office space and the free movement of goods within the region.

These were the conclusions of the 2007 Asean Business Outlook survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Thailand.

what about the Condos

Condo market grows despite property slowdown

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's condominium market is enjoying continued growth this year despite a slowdown in the economy and the property sector overall, according to a leading industry executive.

Anupong Aswapokin, president and chief executive officer of Asian Property Development Plc, said the overall property business for single houses and townhouses this year had been negatively affected by the economic slowdown.

crisis what crisis??

[highdiver]

just as a reminder to those who are gloomy

here is a summery of today.

Stocks are up as usual....

on the land sales :

Hemaraj Land Development Plc, the country's second-biggest industrial land developer, has raised its forecast for land sales in 2007 by 18% as producers of cars and petrochemicals expand their plants.

Land sales may rise to 1,000 rai from a previous forecast of 850 rai in March, CEO David Nardone said yesterday.

Hemaraj sold more land to companies that supply components to Toyota Motor Corp, which opened its third factory in Thailand this year.

export and BOI

Thailand's exports rose 21% in May to a record $13.1 billion as it shipped more automobiles and electronics parts. The Board of Investment, meanwhile, received 37% more applications to build new factories and other projects in the first five months of this year.

Nissan keeps commitment to Thailand

Thailand could continue to play an important role in the production of Nissan automobiles in the near future as long as production costs remain competitive, the company's chief said yesterday. ''Thailand's domestic market in our view will continue to grow significantly ... as Thailand's market is not a mature one yet,'' Carlos Ghosn, the high-profile chief executive officer of Nissan and its parent company Renault, said at a briefing in Bangkok.

Commenting on the ongoing political uncertainty and its impact on investment sentiment, Mr Ghosn said that he continued to view Thailand as a very attractive market

American businessmen happy with quality of life in Thailand

BANGKOK: -- Americans doing business in Thailand are highly satisfied with the quality of life and low-cost labour, while they are moderately satisfied with the Kingdom's infrastructure, availability of raw materials and trained personnel, cost of office space and the free movement of goods within the region.

These were the conclusions of the 2007 Asean Business Outlook survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Thailand.

what about the Condos

Condo market grows despite property slowdown

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's condominium market is enjoying continued growth this year despite a slowdown in the economy and the property sector overall, according to a leading industry executive.

Anupong Aswapokin, president and chief executive officer of Asian Property Development Plc, said the overall property business for single houses and townhouses this year had been negatively affected by the economic slowdown.

crisis what crisis??

[Mid]

highdiver

love ya new suit

edit to add

ps , how's that search for high 4's on GDP doing ??

Edited June 27, 2007 by Mid

[highdiver]

good one

facts remain the same.. no crisis

[bingobongo]

highdiver, it is time for request and dedications.....and i dedicate the updated "list" to you, you know the "list", the list that flies in the dace of your denial, that concludes your utopia no longer exists.....enjoy....so "dive" into reality

this list will keep on growing

so lets recap (check previous posts for info), I will sum up so you dont have to go thru 55 pages of this topic

Stronger baht - check

Declining oil imports (as of Q1, 2007) - check

Work halted on numerous property developments - check

Declining property sales - check

Banks offering no interest/no closing cost loans for 3 months (Via teaser rates) - check

Furniture sales down - check

Auto sales down (again) - check

Housewares sales down (again) - check

BOT cutting rates to stimulate economy - check

Advertising spending declining - check

Increase in short term speculative inflows - check

Thailand trailing all other economies in region - check

Economy slows on weaker domestic demand - check

Consumer confidence lowest in 5 years - check

Sony, Toshiba, Pioneer (electronics) report lower YOY demand - check

Thai Airways profits slump 31% - check

Thai Gross Domestic Happiness falling - check

Pawn Shop loans increasing – check

Brokerage houses take big hit on lower trade volume – check

Declining motorcycle sales (higher repossessions) – check

AOT profit down 90% - check

BOT chief fired and run by junta – check

Credit card use down – check

IMF voices capital influx concern – check

Listed firms post big Q1fall in earnings – check

Credit bubble reinflating – check

Capital controls to remain in place – check

ABAC poll indicates increasing pessimism – check

S&P worries about Thailand slowdown – check

Budget Deficit rising – check

Thais are net sellers of the SET – check

McDonalds (fast food sales) flat/declining – check

Noodle index up (discretionary spending down) – check

Informal debts increase (loan sharks and family members) – check

Product prices increase due to inflation (68% in some cases) – check

Industrial Confidence Index Plunges –check

GDP growth revised downward (again) – check

Merrill Lynch disagrees with BOT on economy – check

Thai GDP slowest in 2 years – check

Saha suffers first slump in 60 years (largest Thai trading and manufacturing conglomerate) – check

CP (largest thai agro) invest less in Thailand, and more overseas – check

SME confidence index drops (again) in April – check

Rising gloom over jobs and finances (Nielsen's twice-yearly Global Consumer Confidence Study) – check

Gem trade to fall 15% (less tourists, strong baht) – check

Consumer Confidence Index drop to lowest level in 63 months in May – (check)

Business leaders say economic measures are still failing (as of June 2007) – check

Bangkok office market subdued – check

Japan Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) delays infrastructure loans until elections – check

Loan to deposit ratio poor, excess liquidity – check

Loan applications falling (credit standards rising) – check

Armed robbery up (gold stores) – check

Digital Camera sales down – check

Military spending up 24% - check

US Business confidence in Thailand down - check

Edited June 27, 2007 by bingobongo

[highdiver]

I can't believe that out of 100,000 sperm, you were the quickest.

[Mid]

about those high 4's ?????

[chinthee]

Still, the Emperor does look rather handsome in that new silk suit.

[highdiver]

about those high 4's ?????

leave something for tommorow

[Mid]

ya got nothing

[highdiver]

What you said hurt me very much. I cried all the way to the bank.

[highdiver]

What you said hurt me very much. I cried all the way to the bank.

[Mid]

don't cry sweety ,

you've been tested and found wanting .............

nothing new there.

here's another bone

Thai economy in 2007 better than earlier projected

BANGKOK, June 27 (TNA) - Thailand's economy this year is expected to expand at a higher rate than earlier projections suggested, thanks to continued performance in exports, declining interest rates and low inflation, a senior banker and securities executive said Wednesday.

still no high 4's .............................

Edited June 27, 2007 by Mid

[highdiver]

thanks for the bone.

wil add it to my list.

[jomama]

highdiver, it is time for request and dedications.....and i dedicate the updated "list" to you, you know the "list", the list that flies in the dace of your denial, that concludes your utopia no longer exists.....enjoy....so "dive" into reality

this list will keep on growing

so lets recap (check previous posts for info), I will sum up so you dont have to go thru 55 pages of this topic

Stronger baht - check

Declining oil imports (as of Q1, 2007) - check

Work halted on numerous property developments - check

Declining property sales - check

Banks offering no interest/no closing cost loans for 3 months (Via teaser rates) - check

Furniture sales down - check

Auto sales down (again) - check

Housewares sales down (again) - check

BOT cutting rates to stimulate economy - check

Advertising spending declining - check

Increase in short term speculative inflows - check

Thailand trailing all other economies in region - check

Economy slows on weaker domestic demand - check

Consumer confidence lowest in 5 years - check

Sony, Toshiba, Pioneer (electronics) report lower YOY demand - check

Thai Airways profits slump 31% - check

Thai Gross Domestic Happiness falling - check

Pawn Shop loans increasing – check

Brokerage houses take big hit on lower trade volume – check

Declining motorcycle sales (higher repossessions) – check

AOT profit down 90% - check

BOT chief fired and run by junta – check

Credit card use down – check

IMF voices capital influx concern – check

Listed firms post big Q1fall in earnings – check

Credit bubble reinflating – check

Capital controls to remain in place – check

ABAC poll indicates increasing pessimism – check

S&P worries about Thailand slowdown – check

Budget Deficit rising – check

Thais are net sellers of the SET – check

McDonalds (fast food sales) flat/declining – check

Noodle index up (discretionary spending down) – check

Informal debts increase (loan sharks and family members) – check

Product prices increase due to inflation (68% in some cases) – check

Industrial Confidence Index Plunges –check

GDP growth revised downward (again) – check

Merrill Lynch disagrees with BOT on economy – check

Thai GDP slowest in 2 years – check

Saha suffers first slump in 60 years (largest Thai trading and manufacturing conglomerate) – check

CP (largest thai agro) invest less in Thailand, and more overseas – check

SME confidence index drops (again) in April – check

Rising gloom over jobs and finances (Nielsen's twice-yearly Global Consumer Confidence Study) – check

Gem trade to fall 15% (less tourists, strong baht) – check

Consumer Confidence Index drop to lowest level in 63 months in May – (check)

Business leaders say economic measures are still failing (as of June 2007) – check

Bangkok office market subdued – check

Japan Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) delays infrastructure loans until elections – check

Loan to deposit ratio poor, excess liquidity – check

Loan applications falling (credit standards rising) – check

Armed robbery up (gold stores) – check

Digital Camera sales down – check

Military spending up 24% - check

US Business confidence in Thailand down - check

Impressive list, but as we know there are lies, damned lies and statistics ... whatever you want to make of them. Still, if your data collection is correct, none bodes well. My perspective mostly comes from a social aspect.

I had a colleague of mine once tell me in Thailand that my perceptions were part of my own "pathology" if I dared to make these kinds of observations. The reason for his commitment to Thailand was (and is) his addiction to Thai boys. Denial, yes, and who's pathological?

Some folks have so much vested interest in their decisions about moving to Thailand or their lifestyle that they're willing to eat sh*t to stay. Go ahead and check in every three months. Go ahead and let the brother and the sister and the parents demand money. Go ahead and apologize for the truly frightening driving habits. Go ahead and try to protect your money. Go ahead and avoid drunk policemen with sidearms drinking in public ... hey man, that's normal.

This babbling has a point: there are many, many foreigners in Thailand who are in a state of denial, which indeed is a pathological state that refuses to accept information that is contrary to their dearly held grip on what they are doing.

Hence those who will not listen to what many say are the facts. No matter your sources, they will deny that the figures are accurate. It just don't fit in, man.

Sorry, just being pathological...

[JimmyCA]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

The thais tried to apply the same thinking to the finance markets as they do to the visas regulations.

The thais really pissed these guys off with their ignorant rule changes which they quickly reversed. So these forign speculators are probably planning on teaching the Thais a well deserved lesson on international finance.

I look forward to a 50 baht USD once again

[wintermute]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

The thais tried to apply the same thinking to the finance markets as they do to the visas regulations.

The thais really pissed these guys off with their ignorant rule changes which they quickly reversed. So these forign speculators are probably planning on teaching the Thais a well deserved lesson on international finance.

I look forward to a 50 baht USD once again

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of boiler room activity with the SET as well. It's been fluctuating the past few months like a 60 year old fat man's heart monitor.

[JimmyCA]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of boiler room activity with the SET as well. It's been fluctuating the past few months like a 60 year old fat man's heart monitor.

That is not uncommon around here

[cclub75]

Back to hard facts : figures.

Number of registrations of new businesses in Thailand.

__________ 2006______ 2007______ Difference

january ___ 4 694 ______ 3 845______ -18%

February __ 4 493 ______ 3 601______ -19%

March ____ 4 943 ______ 4 019______ -18%

April______ 3 341______ 2 749______ -17 %

May______ 3 942 ______ 3 064______ -22 %

Source : Department Of Business Development (Ministry of Commerce)

http://www.dbd.go.th/thai/statistics/newreg03.phtml

[LaoPo]

Back to hard facts : figures.

Number of registrations of new businesses in Thailand.

__________ 2006______ 2007______ Difference

january ___ 4 694 ______ 3 845______ -18%

February __ 4 493 ______ 3 601______ -19%

March ____ 4 943 ______ 4 019______ -18%

April______ 3 341______ 2 749______ -17 %

May______ 3 942 ______ 3 064______ -22 %

Source : Department Of Business Development (Ministry of Commerce)

http://www.dbd.go.th/thai/statistics/newreg03.phtml

...any figures on bankruptcies ?

LaoPo

[georgebkk]

Thank you. These numbers are more likely true than not.

The Thai gov't must be math phobic...

Back to hard facts : figures.

Number of registrations of new businesses in Thailand.

__________ 2006______ 2007______ Difference

january ___ 4 694 ______ 3 845______ -18%

February __ 4 493 ______ 3 601______ -19%

March ____ 4 943 ______ 4 019______ -18%

April______ 3 341______ 2 749______ -17 %

May______ 3 942 ______ 3 064______ -22 %

Source : Department Of Business Development (Ministry of Commerce)

http://www.dbd.go.th/thai/statistics/newreg03.phtml

[JR Texas]

Thank you. These numbers are more likely true than not.

The Thai gov't must be math phobic...

Back to hard facts : figures.

Number of registrations of new businesses in Thailand.

__________ 2006______ 2007______ Difference

january ___ 4 694 ______ 3 845______ -18%

February __ 4 493 ______ 3 601______ -19%

March ____ 4 943 ______ 4 019______ -18%

April______ 3 341______ 2 749______ -17 %

May______ 3 942 ______ 3 064______ -22 %

Source : Department Of Business Development (Ministry of Commerce)

http://www.dbd.go.th/thai/statistics/newreg03.phtml

JR Texas: Question: Would it be a smart move to get my money out of my Thai bank account now and turn my baht (today at 34.5 to one US$) into US dollars?

[georgebkk]

JR Texas: Question: Would it be a smart move to get my money out of my Thai bank account now and turn my baht (today at 34.5 to one US$) into US dollars?

You're asking for currency trading advice. I don't think this is the proper forum for that.

However, it's clear the baht is presently being artificially supported -- and when the 'big dogs' decide to pull the rug out again is anybody's guess...

[LaoPo]

Thank you. These numbers are more likely true than not.

The Thai gov't must be math phobic...

Back to hard facts : figures.

Number of registrations of new businesses in Thailand.

__________ 2006______ 2007______ Difference

january ___ 4 694 ______ 3 845______ -18%

February __ 4 493 ______ 3 601______ -19%

March ____ 4 943 ______ 4 019______ -18%

April______ 3 341______ 2 749______ -17 %

May______ 3 942 ______ 3 064______ -22 %

Source : Department Of Business Development (Ministry of Commerce)

http://www.dbd.go.th/thai/statistics/newreg03.phtml

JR Texas: Question: Would it be a smart move to get my money out of my Thai bank account now and turn my baht (today at 34.5 to one US$) into US dollars?

Ouch..that's hard to answer since it depends on many factors.

* where do you live ?

* how much money are you talking ?; that's different for everybody; meaning, if it's substantial I would talk to your own advisors

* do you need the money in a short timeframe ? (investment, private spending etc.)

* The Baht-US$ rate can go everywhere; down or up..

Hard to answer and, personally spoken, I wouldn't burn my hands on a predictation right now.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

hello highdiver, is the world closing in on you yet?

Bangkok Bank Says Full-Year Profit Growth to Stall

Bangkok Bank and its competitors have cut deposit and lending rates several times this year to reduce funding costs and boost new loans as business confidence slumps to an eight- year low.

Spending on new homes, cars and other products has stalled since the military ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September. Consumer confidence, after falling in 15 of the past 17 months, is at a five-year low.

Thailand's government this month lifted its fiscal 2008 deficit forecast by 38 percent to 165 billion baht as it boosts spending and tax receipts are cut by slowing consumption.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[JimmyCA]

Slowly but surely other countries and international firms will move their business interests out due to uncertainty. And many businesses must be asking themselved on a daily basis why they are in this crazy place with no logic and or sound business rules. They have been waiting for a nudge and nw they have it.

[esbobes]

The thais tried to apply the same thinking to the finance markets as they do to the visas regulations.

The thais really pissed these guys off with their ignorant rule changes which they quickly reversed. So these forign speculators are probably planning on teaching the Thais a well deserved lesson on international finance.

I look forward to a 50 baht USD once again

It will see 20 Baht USD before the 50. What pills are you taking

[Mid]

Gold from the storm

Jun 28th 2007 | HONG KONG, MANILA AND SEOUL

From The Economist print edition

Reuters

Ten years after Asia's financial crisis, the region is booming again. Has it fully recovered or are economic mistakes being repeated?

snip

Public infrastructure, particularly in Thailand and Indonesia, is worse than a decade ago and business spending has been hurt by economic and political uncertainty. Having had their fingers badly burnt, firms are still cautious about taking on debt. The ADB argues that governments could do much to change this: from investing more in education and infrastructure, to stamping down on corruption and improving the regulatory environment. For all the rhetoric about bold change, the truth is that reform has been relatively limited outside the financial sector.

snip

Rather than shielding themselves with big reserves, East Asia's governments should make their economies more pliable and their banks more resilient, and thus better able to cope with future volatility. They need more flexible exchange rates, which would not only prevent a further excessive build-up in reserves, but also help to shift growth towards domestic demand and away from exports. Governments must also restore business confidence and create a healthier investment environment. Asia has performed better than most people expected ten years ago. But it could have done better still.

[highdiver]

hello highdiver, is the world closing in on you yet?

Bangkok Bank Says Full-Year Profit Growth to Stall

Bangkok Bank and its competitors have cut deposit and lending rates several times this year to reduce funding costs and boost new loans as business confidence slumps to an eight- year low.

Spending on new homes, cars and other products has stalled since the military ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September. Consumer confidence, after falling in 15 of the past 17 months, is at a five-year low.

Thailand's government this month lifted its fiscal 2008 deficit forecast by 38 percent to 165 billion baht as it boosts spending and tax receipts are cut by slowing consumption.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

bingo.

i am doing great. we are in bkk for the weekend. we are going to invest in buying another new condo. you know like you sold in 2006 and lost on the gaining value of the baht...

one would assume that you will read the articles you post and not just the headlines.

Judging by the old saying, "What you don't know can't hurt you," you are practically invulnerable.

as you tend to be Informationally deprived. i will assist you.

from the article.

Profit will be about the same ``despite the higher level of tax'' Bangkok Bank will pay this year, because of the expected ``moderate growth'' in revenue, Chartsiri said.

Tax waivers, granted to banks after the Asian financial crisis, expired last year, forcing Bangkok Bank and most competitors to again pay 30 percent of profits to the government. so even though they are paying much more tax they profits are the same.

Net income in the fourth quarter of last year, the bank's first earnings after the coup, rose to 4.05 billion baht, up 3.4 percent from the previous quarter, according to Bloomberg data.

Bangkok Bank faces increasing competition as international financial-services companies buy stakes in smaller Thai banks, said Doug Barnett, an investment manager of the Thai Focused Equity Fund Ltd., a $325 million hedge fund.

Barnett owns more shares in Bank of Ayudhya Pcl than in Bangkok Bank because a unit of General Electric Co. owns a stake in Bank of Ayudhya.

``There used to be three or four big banks in Thailand; after '97 everybody and his dog including GE is here,'' Barnett said. ``There are really big players. They are better capitalized and they're much more focused on consumer banking.

you see bingo its all about facts. and it is more anout understanding them...

by the way the stocks are still going up and those forigners are just not stoping..

[Jai Dee]

BoT concerned over slow recovery of consumers' appetite

The board of the Bank of Thailand has voiced concern about the slow-paced recovery of Thai consumer purchasing, even though many other economic indicators have begun to pick up.

Speaking after the meeting, National Economic and Social Development Board secretary-general Amphon Kitti-amphon, a board member, said what needed to be closely monitored now is the slow recovery of local consumption although there is a sign of economic pickup in the second half of this year.

Dr. Amphon said that imports of capital goods such as machinery began to grow in April and May after experiencing a contraction over the preceding 4-5 months.

The movement showed that private-sector companies are prepared to expand their investment, he said.

In addition, the minimum lending rate (MLR) offered by commercial banks had now dropped below 7 per cent following the BoT's move to cut the policy interest rate.

Normally the lower interest rate would boost consumer spending, but the public is responding more slowly in this regard, and recovery is slower than anticipated, according to other factors.

"What we need to monitor now is when public consumption will recover," Dr. Amphon said. "The slower recovery may stem from the fact that products available in the market do not meet customers' needs."

Permanent Secretary for Commerce Karun Kittisathaporn, also a board member, said although exports in the first five months of this year expanded more than expected, the Commerce Ministry would not raise the export growth target set to be around 12.5 per cent.

Late this year, he said, exports would still experience risks from possible baht appreciation and higher oil prices.

Source: TNA - 29 June 2007