Hard truths about travelling to Thailand, right now

[Guderian]

A good start to the article with a fair description of how things are in Thailand. Telling us that only 50 Elite visa holders have been able to return so far in total is useful and interesting, why can't be get more solid information like that? Kudos to the author.

 

But then it all (predictably) goes downhill as soon as the author starts the ritual wailing and gnashing of teeth about the grim situation in the tourism industry. There are three points to make in reply here, just in case the author or anyone else has missed them.

 

Firstly, the author essentially concludes by asking, or rather lamenting, why Thailand isn't doing something that no other country in the world has managed to do, i.e. reopen to tourism safely without quarantine. Why do you need to ask such a vacuous question? Thailand is far from being the only country that has a significant tourist industry but remains closed to most visitors for the safety of its general population. Don't you think that advanced economies like Japan and New Zealand would have figured out how to do this if it was so easy?

 

Secondly, look at what is happening in parts of Europe and the US where tourism was allowed this summer. Almost entire countries, like Wales, are now effectively in lockdown, though it's termed 'local' in the UK, with all the negative consequences for the non-tourism part of the economy. Something like 85%-90% of Thailand's economy dies not depend on foreign tourists, and the largest part of it is ticking over quite nicely at the moment. Why on earth would you risk having to shut down large swathes of that just so the 10%-15% that does depend on foreign tourists can make a few dollars again? Imperil high-tech factories for the sake of some manky, mass-market hotels, bars and tourist attractions in Pattaya and Phuket, that doesn't make much financial sense.

 

And thirdly, forget fancy models like the Imperial College one, we now have actual data as to what happens when countries reopen to tourism, even with certain limited controls applied at national level, and it isn't a pretty sight. Remember that this disaster is still ongoing and likely to get worse before it starts getting better.

 

 

And also remember that Thailand has an ageing population, not quite as bad as Japan's but heading in that direction, so if the virus does get a serious foothold here, it's consequences in terms of deaths are likely to be far worse than they have been in countries with a younger demographic.

 

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Guderian

[watso63]

A big ask indeed and getting tired of listening to predictions and wishful hinking

[watso63]

Just now, Guderian said:

A good start to the article with a fair description of how things are in Thailand. Telling us that only 50 Elite visa holders have been able to return so far in total is useful and interesting, why can't be get more solid information like that? Kudo to the author.

 

But then it all (predictably) goes downhill as soon as the author starts the ritual wailing and gnashing of teeth about the grim situation in the tourism industry. There are three points to make in reply here, just in case the author or anyone else has missed them.

 

Firstly, the author essentially concludes by asking, or rather lamenting, why Thailand isn't doing something that no other country in the world has managed to do, i.e. reopen to tourism safely without quarantine. Why do you need to ask such a vacuous question? Thailand is far from being the only country that has a significant tourist industry but remains closed to most visitors for the safety of its general population. Don't you think that advanced economies like Japan and New Zealand would have figured out how to do this if it was so easy?

 

Secondly, look at what is happening in parts of Europe and the US where tourism was allowed this summer. Almost entire countries, like Wales, are now effectively in lockdown, though it's termed 'local' in the UK, with all the negative consequences for the non-tourism part of the economy. Something like 85%-90% of Thailand's economy dies not depend on foreign tourists, and the largest part of it is ticking over quite nicely at the moment. Why on earth would you risk having to shut down large swathes of that just so the 10%-15% that does depend on foreign tourists can make a few dollars again? Imperil high-tech factories for the sake of some manky, mass-market hotels, bars and tourist attractions in Pattaya and Phuket, that doesn't make much financial sense.

 

And thirdly, forget fancy models like the Imperial College one, we now have actual data as to what happens when countries reopen to tourism, even with certain limited controls applied at national level, and it isn't a pretty sight. Remember that this disaster is still ongoing and likely to get worse before it starts getting better.

 

 

And also remember that Thailand has an ageing population, not quite as bad as Japan's but heading in that direction, so if the virus does get a serious foothold here, it's consequences in terms of deaths are likely to be far worse than they have been in countries with a younger demographic.

 

 

You have more patience than me. Well put????

[Jeffr2]

9 minutes ago, watso63 said:

You have more patience than me. Well put????

Yes, he laid it out quite well.

[ray666]

Any thing new ? It`s all the same. We all know what its like here. It would be nice to read something New.

[joe jadore]

6 hours ago, ukrules said:

I have a feeling nothing will change until the population are vaccinated.

 

USA has three different vaccines which are weeks away from final FDA approval. And there is another two vaccines following close behind those! Israel has long had cheap, 5 minute covid tests, which are accurate, how about putting them in place at the airports, if they cost 5 $ charge 10$ = simple! 

14 day quarantine and 100,000$USD Insurance,  WILL NOT WORK, tourists will NOT pay for that, for a two week holiday! WAKE UP POLITICIANS!

[Cadan]

Great article. What is the risk of starting to open for countries such as Taiwan, Cambodia and Vietnam who have handled the Covid well? It would at least show a sign to restart the industry 

[Suradit69]

4 hours ago, steven100 said:

Although very descriptive, the article tells nothing new imo.  We already know all about everything that was mentioned.  

 

 

Originality is seldom in evidence here at TV.

 

Much of the pontificating is simply a form of public onanism that serves no purpose other than short term self-gratification for the author and as entertainment for a handful of voyeurs.

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, joe jadore said:

USA has three different vaccines which are weeks away from final FDA approval. And there is another two vaccines following close behind those! Israel has long had cheap, 5 minute covid tests, which are accurate, how about putting them in place at the airports, if they cost 5 $ charge 10$ = simple! 

14 day quarantine and 100,000$USD Insurance,  WILL NOT WORK, tourists will NOT pay for that, for a two week holiday! WAKE UP POLITICIANS!

They aren't weeks away.  They are in the 3rd phase of clinical trials.  Then, that data needs to be studied.  Then, they'll make a decision.  We could be months away depending on these trials. Plus, it will be at least a year before we'll be able to get them here in Thailand.  Maybe longer.

 

The current covid tests are about 66% accurate.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/10/05/fda-chief-scientists-will-make-call-on-covid-19-vaccine-approval/#4f2f34601145

[philosphrstone]

53 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Where do you get your news from?  Obviously, what ever the source, it's not good.

 

https://www.channel3000.com/covid-patients-filling-wisconsin-hospitals-as-virus-surges/

 

COVID-19 patients are filling Wisconsin hospitals, forcing doctors to transfer patients to other facilities and build waiting lists as the disease surges across the state.

 

Hospitals in Green Bay, Wausau and the Fox Valley are being overwhelmed, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

 

Officials at Bellin Hospital in Green Bay say their facility is at 94% capacity.

How many people have died, worldwide?  A bit over 1 million, right?  There are 7.8 billion souls on Earth, meaning, in the first year of this big scary pandemic that is overwhelming a hospital or two somewhere in the US, about one person in 7800 has died.  Yes, indeed, it turns out Covid-19 is a MINOR risk, especially if you are under the age of 70!  Imagine the draconian stuff that the overzealous bureaucrats of all levels of all governments would be doing if there was a real pandemic!!!  The only country in the world that didn't fall for this hoax was Sweden.  Sensible folks there, and apparently some politicians who are not owned by the CCP!  ????

[cliveshep]

I haven't seen my children (living in the UK) for 2 years now as they've been too poor to afford to come visit and I on a pension cannot afford to support them with air-tickets. So in hoping to see  them before I die we are looking at Xmas 2021 - over a year away.

 

That of course is assuming the current Government don't completely screw the pooch or the new Army leader doesn't lose patience with Prayut's bumbling and initiate another coup which as he has categorically denied that will probably happen given how they all lie. 

 

We could meet up in another country but simply cannot afford that and even if we could my Thai wife and I would be effectively stateless as neither home country would permit re-admittance, Thailand because of one of the most draconian set of entry requirements dreamed up by anyone living in lala-land and UK because my Thai wife would not be granted entry anyway. It was Theresa May's toxic requirements that drove us away in the first place! In the UK pensioners cannot keep their foreign wives once they retire as the pension is, in the Government's eyes, too low to support a foreign wife although adequate for a UK one.

[casey1]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Whilst the Thai government’s success in containing Covid-19 relatively early is something to be proud of, it has been replaced with an irrational fear to develop a useful, science-based plan to re-open the borders.

replace the word Thai with most any other country and the same nonsense is true.....the sad reality is testing positive is not a meaningful diagnosis...and yet we fixate on this  with a morbid fear of calamity.....and governments seize on this as a way of control....

[Thomas J]

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

I have a feeling nothing will change until the population are vaccinated.

And when the people are vaccinated and there is still Covid, then what.  There have been flu vaccines for decades and between 5% and 20% of the entire world catches the flu each year. 

[Sean60]

Well written. Thank you. Finally we are getting to a point where the decision makers need to make decisions based on the fact that we should live with the virus and not keep it away. 

Have special program throughout the country for elderly and very sick people. The rest can function as usual.

There is no vaccine and there will not be a real one at near future.

How long will go on with this madness of closing the borders. No financial package to people within the industry.

[connda]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The mandatory 14 day quarantine, clearly a major sticking point for many travellers, has been cobbled together to appear as little more than a money-making exercise for a select group of wealthy hoteliers, rather than a well-grounded public health policy. Appointing a government-owned private company as the intermediary for travel arrangements also smacks of turning Covid travel into a profit centre for a single business entity.

Not to mention the mandatory health insurance that must be purchased from "special" Thai companies.
 

Edited October 6, 2020 by connda

[JusticeGB]

Once tourists start going to different tourist destinations they may find them more attractive than Thailand. Thailand is nothing like the great place it was to visit in the 80's. The longer that Thailand has these stupid and expensive rules and expensive effective prison for 2 weeks no revival of the tourism industry will happen.

[Rimmer]

A conspiracy troll post has been removed

[Ganesh108]

5 hours ago, simon43 said:

I'm surprised that those holding Elite visas have not demanded financial compensation.  Imagine buying a visa for 1 million baht and then being refused entry into the country.  Sounds like fraud to me ....

The Elite scheme was created by Taksin, so the first thing I thought at the time was 'Here comes a giant rip-off'.

[Magenta408]

A balanced article for a change. Time to face the facts. The script does not foresee enjoyable tourism. It's just part of the list of not to do.

Edited October 6, 2020 by Magenta408
typo

[Madeline Thompson]

An excellent assessment of the situation in its entirety,

including the shadowy concept of encouraging new

business opportunities to come and reinvest in the country.

It cannot be done with a wealthy of bureaucratic rules and

regulations which the current Thai government flaunts and

fiddles with.  It's time to drop this awful bunker mentality,

set fear aside and deal with it. The current governing body is

not capable of doing that, and they have proven that clearly.

 

[wombat]

 

Under current coronavirus travel restrictions, Australians are only allowed to leave the country for official business or compassionate personal reasons.

 

[ThomasWWW]

This is the future ! - But then as of another reason = climate change for sure, and very likely a new virus.

[Skallywag]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

it has been replaced with an irrational fear to develop a useful, science-based plan to re-open the borders.

 

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Sure locals, who have been living inside this Siamese Bubble for 6 or so months, will also have to manage their own prevention with potential new cases coming into the country

There really is no "science based plan"  Like saying there will be a science based plan for eliminating automobile deaths, cancer, or cardiac disease.  Sure, there will eventually be a vaccine that is somewhere around 75% effective hopefully, yet since only 60% of the population is likely to take the vaccine, it will not eliminate the "virus".  

 

Managing your own prevention is the most common sense thing right now and for the future.  Yes all governments should "mandate" safety practices and offer temperature checks and testing, but there will always be dangers in our world, so we need to wake up and start "managing our own prevention".  

 

 

[raccos21]

     The best way is to just forget about Thailand for a couple of years until everything is back to normal. Those requirements, regulations and paperwork right now for tourism is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone wants to go through this hassle, let them do as they want and suit themselves. 

    All the benefit from these goes directly to the upper class and politically powerful people; nothing for the lower class people who are still struggling to survive every day. It is pointless to complain about their regulations — they won’t change anything until they realize what went wrong.

     The whole virus thing is just a  trick to make a quick profit; they say you have to go to the hospital to recover. If you isolate yourself you can recover yourself at home instead of paying expensive insurance, hotel, and hospital bills for staying for 14 days without treatment, unless you are diagnosed with some other severe illness.

     Even 17 years after the SARS outbreak and 7 years after the MERS outbreak there is still no vaccine for them. All the politicians claim that there will be a vaccine for COVID-19 but I don’t think there will be one available soon, as developing a vaccine isn’t a simple process.
    It might be that this virus has been staying in our community for a while and will come and go in the future. There’s no such thing as second wave or third wave and so on.

Edited October 6, 2020 by raccos21

[Tengtai]

Meanwhile 40-60 persons die in traffic on a daily basis... who cares as long as no one dies from corona?

[shackleton]

Well written article but as we know the Thai government have their own agenda

About how to organise things here

People Health and Safety, first priority contain the Corivirus 

Letting in Mass Tourists unless High Flyers are not on their list of priorities 

Never mind the people outside of Thailand who have family, homes here 

Trying to get back

Forget Tourists until 2021-2022 at the earliest when the quarantine restrictions are lifted

 

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, Tengtai said:

Meanwhile 40-60 persons die in traffic on a daily basis... who cares as long as no one dies from corona?

You're comparing apples to oranges.  And sadly, many are dying from corona.  Over 1MM so far.  More to come.

[Bogbrush]

25 minutes ago, connda said:

Not to mention the mandatory health insurance that must be purchased from "special" Thai companies.
 

Whilst I don’t agree with the government insistence that insurance should be purchased from the local cartel which was created to satisfy the recent OA change (although to be fair, they are the only ones capable of providing a standardized version in Thai, registered on the Immigration system), I do strongly agree that insurance should be compulsory for all aliens (tourists and expats alike), both for COVID and other accidents/illnesses. Too many idiots screaming around on motorbikes with no helmets and then running to CrowdFund when they come unstuck.
 

Incidentally, I didn’t notice the ‘local purchase’ insurance requirement when the new legislation was announced; I wonder how people will purchase that before traveling? The OA requirement allows a foreign policy for the first year of entry, for this very reason. 

[sydneyjed]

Thailand is hurting right now like many other countries economically but one thing in its favor is low transmission numbers.Unfortunately looking around the rest of the world and seeing what's happened there due to opening their economies up far too early is the lesson to be learnt.Another 3/6 months and hopefully some of these trial vaccines can actually be approved and some sort of confidence and normality will be instilled once again.I know it's a hard pill to swallow right now but the alternatives aren't exactly any better given what I just read about Bali for example!Keep safe folks!

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Tengtai said:

Meanwhile 40-60 persons die in traffic on a daily basis... who cares as long as no one dies from corona?

Again another one mixing apples and oranges.  A road death does not go home with you and infect others and continue the spread.  Just idiot drivers can spread death, and it should only occur once for them, then prison if they do not die themselves.