opening thailand. does anyone have optimism for this year?

[paulikens]

I'm just wondering is there anyone on here still believing that thailand will open up fully this year?as i have always remained optimistic about it but even i have to admit defeat now. 

 i think the stv visa was just a token gesture, as at first i thought they might scale this up but even the first flight has been delayed and i don't think they have any intention of let bigger numbers come in.

 and i always thought that surely they wont let high season go, but i think they have written it off now.     bar their beloved chinese, i even have to admit that none us will get in till next year and when next year is anyone's guess!     

[Seagull Sam]

Optimism? Thailand? In 'normal' I wouldn't use those two words together. 

[sezze]

Forget it , 2020 is lost . I call the fastest reopen around March/April , and that would be if a vaccine would be on the market by end of November/ beginning December , which is highly optimistic . After that , and i think a more realistic approach would be September 2021 . You got to remember that vaccines , even if they are developed at superspeed like now , still take time to be made/distributed and given to the people in certain orders . It takes months to do that , at least , and while this would be a game changer , the rules and regulations also need to be adapted to it , together with airlines .

[paulikens]

9 minutes ago, sezze said:

Forget it , 2020 is lost . I call the fastest reopen around March/April , and that would be if a vaccine would be on the market by end of November/ beginning December , which is highly optimistic . After that , and i think a more realistic approach would be September 2021 . You got to remember that vaccines , even if they are developed at superspeed like now , still take time to be made/distributed and given to the people in certain orders . It takes months to do that , at least , and while this would be a game changer , the rules and regulations also need to be adapted to it , together with airlines .

@sezze the way thais are concerning this virus i except they would still want all the bs hoops you gotta jump through in place still. 

[impulse]

Cranky expats who hate tourists have all kinds of optimism.

 

[2 is 1]

NO

 

[alianware]

Don't worry, if they look at the Gov. Safetybox and it will be empty soon with the dollar, they will open it very quickly.

[ChaiyaTH]

Een Thailand is now getting desperate enough to start making moves allowing foreigners in, it is not the same in western countries, many in Europe are even making things more tight now (Netherlands even has a bar curfew at 10PM suddenly). 

 

Not to mention how many people are out of jobs or saving up more as they are unsure if they will lose in the near future. They basically need to get it from Chinese in the first place as most farangs shift towards Vietnam for a few years more and more already.

 

Aaaanddd... Winter Is Coming....  = general flu = covid test say covid = lockdown even longer.

Edited October 7, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[sammieuk1]

Allegedly stopped the virus but destroyed tourism all without testing anyone so it's an emphatic no from me forget it ????

[saakura]

21 minutes ago, alianware said:

Don't worry, if they look at the Gov. Safetybox and it will be empty soon with the dollar, they will open it very quickly.

Yes!!! And Thailand will bite the dust and the almighty dollar will once again reign supreme!! Farang will once again be welcomed and held in high esteem by the poor Isaan girls.

[androokery]

Open up “fully”, you ask? I think they will allow some nationalities, even some western ones, to visit without quarantine before the end of 2021. They will however need to have insurance and do some type of testing as well. 
 

With those caveats, I remain positive and answer in the affirmative.

 

Yes. 

[Oceanbroker]

My thoughts are not so much Thailand opening the doors again, but how many people want to come to Thailand in the near future. I am back in the States after 5 yrs in Pattaya and zI don't see Westerners having any desire to travel in Country let along to any long distant Country. My feeling is it will take 3 to 5 years to make that type of trip again.(Not talking about horny old men like me. 

[ChouDoufu]

no, not fully.  but they will try to open partially.

we'll have to see how the first stv pilot project goes.

once they had a successful charter group or two,

they can begin to expand the program, allow other

visa types to enter, and hopefully drop some of the

useless bureaucratic requirements.

 

and yes, their "beloved" chinese will be one of the

first to regain tourism privileges as they have managed

to contain the virus.  their president even wears a

mask in public.  imagine that.

[HashBrownHarry]

No

[BritManToo]

10 hours ago, paulikens said:

'm just wondering is there anyone on here still believing that thailand will open up fully this year?

I don't think it will be opening up next year either.

Too many benefits for those in charge by keeping it closed.

[meechai]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think it will be opening up next year either.

Too many benefits for those in charge by keeping it closed.

That is the truth of the matter & I just said so in another Thai news thread.

 

This whole Covid deal was the perfect strawman for a inept self proclaimed government

Folks forget but the Thai economy was sinking fast before covid hit providing the perfect cover

Edited October 8, 2020 by meechai

[mtls2005]

I think people need to define "open".

 

If that means pre-COVID-like conditions: visa exempt/visa on arrival, plenty of flights, no restrictions on flights, no testing, no insurance, no quarantine, free movement, then "no". Maybe 2H21 at the earliest.

 

 

[BritManToo]

26 minutes ago, meechai said:

This whole Covid deal was the perfect strawman for a inept self proclaimed government

Folks forget but the Thai economy was sinking fast before covid hit providing the perfect cover

It's the perfect excuse for every inept government (elected or not).

The USA/UK/Australian/Vietnam/Cambodian/Laos governments are every bit as happy as the Thai government.

[bert bloggs]

my greatest regret that as i was going back to the UK for a holiday and cant ,is that i may never see it or my family again in the flesh.

[Guderian]

It seems to be getting out of control in the UK, with local lockdowns doing nothing to reduce the spread of the virus. If other northern countries find the same thing just as the flu season kicks off then I doubt if their citizens will be welcome here until next spring at the earliest.

[JTXR]

Not at all optimistic.

Maybe mid 2021 and even that will depend, I think, on whether effective vaccines have been widely distributed.

[johng]

14 minutes ago, Guderian said:

It seems to be getting out of control in the UK, with local lockdowns doing nothing to reduce the spread of the virus.

 

Cases up because of testing up

 

the second wave ????

 

[moose7117]

nope, no faith at all.

[findlay13]

I have no optimism for this year. Frydenturd [the Australian treasurer] has already started talking about "The end of 2021 until travel gets back to normal". We can't get out of Australia [unless you are part of the rich and shameless.Abbott for example or Pedophile Pell ]  or into Thailand .

[Burma Bill]

20 hours ago, paulikens said:

i even have to admit that none us will get in till next year and when next year is anyone's guess! 

For reference - one of this afternoon's TVF headlines which may answer your question:-

 

News Poll: Majority of Thais say "NO!" to foreign tourists - they fear more Covid

[NoshowJones]

19 hours ago, paulikens said:

@sezze the way thais are concerning this virus i except they would still want all the bs hoops you gotta jump through in place still. 

Yes, like the $100.000 covid scam, I'm sure that will stay with us, brown envelopes from insurance companies to certain generals.

[Skeptic7]

Sadly & unfortunately...No. 

[Stevemercer]

International travel will not return to pre-Covid levels until mid-2022. This assumes 2 years for the current epidemic to fizzle away, and an added 3 - 6 months for travelers to become confident again.

 

Vaccines will be widely available  by mid-2021, but will never be a 100% guarantee.

 

The 2 year cycle is based on the time it took for the much deadlier Spanish Flu to genetically mutate and and dissipate into lesser flu varieties (1918 - 1920). Herd immunity was the rule after 1920. Those born after 2020 (and not subject to herd immunity) had a heightened reaction to flu strains with genetic components from the Spanish Flu virus, but nowhere near as serious as the original virus.

 

By late 2021, countries hard hit by Covid will be entering herd immunity and the worst effects of the virus will be dissipating. Countries that managed to keep up the virus, like Thailand, will not have herd immunity and will need widespread vaccination to achieve an adequate level of herd immunity.

 

A possible scenario is that, by late 2021, many countries will be over the epidemic. However, it will be hard for Thailand to accept people from those countries because they will have a natural immunity, but could still carry the virus into Thailand's unprotected population (unless vaccinated). Somewhat like early Europeans carrying their diseases into unprotected native populations.

 

Anyway, by late 2022 the great Covid epidemic will be fading into memory. The virus (its mutated ancestors) will still be around, but it will just be another corona virus that most of the human race has become acclimatised to.

[paulikens]

i think that's a NO then ????

[onebir]

11 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Too many benefits for those in charge by keeping it closed.

What benefits? (All I can see is risk of widespread unrest...)