What China’s struggles with a Thai railway say about the Belt and Road

[webfact]

What China’s struggles with a Thai railway say about the Belt and Road

-- After years of stuttering progress on a 250km high-speed rail link, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to sign a deal in Bangkok this week

-- Experts say the key Belt and Road project shows how, contrary to perceptions, Southeast Asian nations have significant leverage with China

Maria Siow

 

Models of high-speed trains in Qingdao, China. Photo: EPA

 

When Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Thailand  on Wednesday and Thursday as part of his tour of Southeast Asia, China’s top diplomat is expected to sign a contract for a 252km high-speed rail link between Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima in the east of the country.

 

The line, which is part of a railway running from Kunming in southern China to Singapore, will eventually run up to Nong Khai and over the border to Laos, where Chinese engineers have blasted through mountains and built massive bridges over rivers to meet a 2021 deadline to open a link to China’s vast rail network.

 

Progress on the high-speed line has stuttered for several years with Thai authorities uneasy over the high interest rates charged by Chinese financing, the track design and even the need for the scheme.

 

Full story: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3105183/what-chinas-struggles-thai-railway-say-about-belt-and-road

 

-- © Copyright South China Morning Post 2020-10-13

 

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[ThailandRyan]

28 minutes ago, webfact said:

-- Experts say the key Belt and Road project shows how, contrary to perceptions, Southeast Asian nations have significant leverage with China

Maria Siow

Leverage, is that why China has been taking over patrolling the seas so they can see what they want to take away so that there is no leverage except there own.  In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line and that will then deal a heavy blow to the SRT and others that have modified there equipment to traverse the lines here.  How much money is Thailand to make from this new infrastructure, and what will be the benefit of having a bullet train here.  I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not.  Chaos at it's finest.

[dddave]

One interesting aspect to this article is that "The South China Morning Post" is now owned by Jack Ma/AliBaba Group and in turn, is overseen by "Xinhua", the official Chinese news agency.

 

One must read between the lines.

 

BTW, in case people are unaware: KHAO SOD NEWS, including the KHAO SOD ENGLISH EDITION is now also controlled by Xinhua.

Edited October 13, 2020 by dddave

[toast1]

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

[ourmanflint]

5 minutes ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

Debt contrary to most opinions is how Britain expanded its empire in the 18th/19th century, China is doing the same today, but is refraining from direct control over countries, instead settling for economic control.

So yes that is the risk, but the benefits of a regular train service between Kunming and Bangkok is quite exciting. It will still go wrong at some point though, no doubt

[dddave]

9 minutes ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

I'm not exactly sure of this but didn't Malaysia or was it Sri Lanka that recently lost control of a major port to settle a past due debt to China?

Edited October 13, 2020 by dddave

[nzrick]

It was Sri Lanka

[jollyhangmon]

14 minutes ago, dddave said:

I'm not exactly sure of this but didn't Malaysia or was it Sri Lanka that lost control of a major port to settle a past due debt to China?

 

... Piraeus in Athens, Greece ... 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Piraeus#Ownership

 

[Pottinger]

Thailand can soon look forward to hundreds of thousands of Chinese noisily slurping, expectorating and hacking, all the way from Kunming to Korat and beyond. What joy!

[Pattaya Spotter]

The Thais really had the Chinese by the cajones...without the segment through Thailand, the rail line ends in Loas...not Singapore.

[Pattaya Spotter]

42 minutes ago, nzrick said:

It was Sri Lanka

Greece too. The moral...don't overextend yourself. 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, dddave said:

BTW, in case people are unaware: KHAO SOD NEWS, including the KHAO SOD ENGLISH EDITION is now also controlled by Xinhua.

Most of them are. Thai Enquirer seems to be an exception.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/7301/thai-media-is-outsourcing-much-of-its-coronavirus-coverage-to-beijing-and-thats-just-the-start/

[fangless]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

Debt contrary to most opinions is how Britain expanded its empire in the 18th/19th century

I thought it was the military and a few others but do please explain in simple English with appropriate examples and comparisons!

Edited October 13, 2020 by fangless

[greeneking]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

Debt contrary to most opinions is how Britain expanded its empire in the 18th/19th century, China is doing the same today, but is refraining from direct control over countries, instead settling for economic control.

So yes that is the risk, but the benefits of a regular train service between Kunming and Bangkok is quite exciting. It will still go wrong at some point though, no doubt

I would genuinely like to know what benefits you see. Many flights of 5000 baht or less and a flight time of 110 minutes are on offer already.

I would enjoy the journey, but after the fun trip my next trips for business or holidays would be by air. Transporting goods does not need to be done by high speed trains. Many Chinese tourists have very short holidays and want to be somewhere in the quickest way i.e. fly.

[ourmanflint]

15 minutes ago, greeneking said:

I would genuinely like to know what benefits you see. Many flights of 5000 baht or less and a flight time of 110 minutes are on offer already.

I would enjoy the journey, but after the fun trip my next trips for business or holidays would be by air. Transporting goods does not need to be done by high speed trains. Many Chinese tourists have very short holidays and want to be somewhere in the quickest way i.e. fly.

Mostly personal, love long train journeys, love Laos and South West China so all good for me and others like me. 
 

[Flying Saucage]

3 hours ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

That's exactly one reason why the governments Chinese friends will grant the necessary loans very generously. A part of the high interest for the loans will go back to the decision makers in Thailand as their commission. And later, when Thailand cannot pay the loans back, as intended, the Thai government will hand over the country and it's people to China.

 

Mind it is a centuries old tradition of parents and grandparents in Thailand to sell their daughters and granddaughters, to pay back their loans. Why should Uncle Too not do the same with his "children", the people of Thailand, to pay back "his" loans to China?

 

[JerseytoBKK]

4 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Debt contrary to most opinions is how Britain expanded its empire in the 18th/19th century, China is doing the same today, but is refraining from direct control over countries, instead settling for economic control.

So yes that is the risk, but the benefits of a regular train service between Kunming and Bangkok is quite exciting. It will still go wrong at some point though, no doubt

"the benefits of a regular train service between Kunming and Bangkok is quite exciting"

 

I agree that it will be very exciting for Thai people. There will be many betting pools set up to predict which province and how many times the tracks will get washed out every year. 

[FNQ]

Shouldn't that read 'expected to sign" after the 14 day Quarantine period ?

[NCC1701A]

All aboard the Virus Express!   

[soi3eddie]

14 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The Thais really had the Chinese by the cajones...without the segment through Thailand, the rail line ends in Loas...not Singapore.

Agreed but the Thais can still have the Chinese if they play clever. Let the Chinese invest heavily into currently proposed new lines from Laos to Bangkok but then find a "ransom strip" somewhere in the south that cannot be used or upgraded by the Chinese unless on Thailand's terms. Think of a number! Connecting to Singapore would not be possible unless agreed on Thai terms so all the earlier investment by Chinese likely wasted.

[klauskunkel]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

When Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Thailand  on Wednesday and Thursday

2 weeks quarantine? 

[Pattaya Spotter]

7 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

Agreed but the Thais can still have the Chinese if they play clever. Let the Chinese invest heavily into currently proposed new lines from Laos to Bangkok but then find a "ransom strip" somewhere in the south that cannot be used or upgraded by the Chinese unless on Thailand's terms. Think of a number! Connecting to Singapore would not be possible unless agreed on Thai terms so all the earlier investment by Chinese likely wasted.

The Chinese have some cards to play too...slowing imports from Thailand...reducing the numbers of tourists to Thailand...but the Thais definitely have some leverage to play with.

[Pattaya Spotter]

5 minutes ago, klauskunkel said:

2 weeks quarantine? 

Most countries have lifted quarantine requirements for high-level diplomats and government leaders.

[klauskunkel]

2 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Most countries have lifted quarantine requirements for high-level diplomats and government leaders.

The virus enjoys diplomatic immunity... 

[Pattaya Spotter]

21 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

All aboard the Virus Express!   

The train is from China not America.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[Pattaya Spotter]

1 minute ago, klauskunkel said:

The virus enjoys diplomatic immunity... 

Most governments have decided that high-level person to person contacts are more important than the deminimus chance of viral spread from such visits. I can't say I disagree.

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

The line, which is part of a railway running from Kunming in southern China to Singapore, will eventually run up to Nong Khai and over the border to Laos, where Chinese engineers have blasted through mountains and built massive bridges over rivers to meet a 2021 deadline to open a link to China’s vast rail network.

Maybe China is getting tired of Thailands stuttering?

[josephbloggs]

11 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

 

I agree that it will be very exciting for Thai people. There will be many betting pools set up to predict which province and how many times the tracks will get washed out every year. 

Considering it is elevated I would love to know how you think that is going to happen. 

[Srikcir]

16 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Debt contrary to most opinions is how Britain expanded its empire in the 18th/19th century, China is doing the same today, but is refraining from direct control over countries, instead settling for economic control.

So yes that is the risk, but the benefits of a regular train service between Kunming and Bangkok is quite exciting. It will still go wrong at some point though, no doubt

China is not using debt to finance the Thailand portion of the railway; it is Thailand using 100% debt with funds loaned by China.

And perhaps realizing the potential for economic failure of that line (Prayut didn't allow any economic feasibility study for the project), China successfully forced Thailand to pay an interest rate higher than Thailand's sovereign interest rate.

China's loan (it rejected Prayut's efforts to be a joint venture partner) means for China a higher GDP growth rate as soon as the project begins operation versus a delayed by 10+years to improve Thailand's GDP growth rate because of its 10-year debt service (that also includes up to 5 years of loan payment abeyances!).

So no. Not like Britain's expansion. Especially when it relied in part on conquering nations for expansion. 

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by Srikcir
ms

[khunjeff]

17 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line and that will then deal a heavy blow to the SRT and others that have modified there equipment to traverse the lines here.

This is a completely separate system from the current rail network, and will have no effect on the existing narrow gauge tracks - just as the elevated, standard gauge Airport Rail Link had no effect.