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Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump moving into statistical tie with Biden in Florida

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webfact Grand Master Member

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Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump moving into statistical tie with Biden in Florida

By Jason Lange

 

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FILE PHOTO: A combination picture shows U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaking during the first 2020 presidential campaign debate, held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump pulled into a statistical tie with Democratic rival Joe Biden in Florida, one of the election's most important battlegrounds, but Biden's lead appeared to widen in Arizona, Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls showed on Wednesday.

 

A separate Reuters/Ipsos national poll found that Biden also leads Trump among all U.S. likely voters by 10 percentage points. The Oct. 9-13 poll showed that 51% of likely voters were supporting Biden, while 41% were backing Trump. Last week's national poll had Biden ahead by 12 points.

 

Reuters/Ipsos is polling likely voters in six states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona - that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden ousts him.

 

Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters, which include responses from some who cast ballots ahead of the formal Nov. 3 Election Day, which is increasingly common due to the coronavirus pandemic:

 

FLORIDA (Oct. 7 - Oct. 14):

** Voting for Biden: 49%

** Voting for Trump: 47%

** Prior poll showed Biden with a 49%-45% lead that was on the edge of the survey's credibility interval.

** 17% said they already had voted.

** 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better.

** 49% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

   

ARIZONA (Oct. 7 - Oct. 14):

** Voting for Biden: 50%

** Voting for Trump: 46%

** Prior poll showed the two essentially even with Biden at 48% and Trump at 46%.

** 50% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.

** 49% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

** 10% said they already had voted.

 

MICHIGAN (Oct. 7 - Oct. 13):

** Voting for Biden: 51%

** Voting for Trump: 43%

** Result unchanged from prior week.

** 22% said they already had voted.

** 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.

** 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.

 

NORTH CAROLINA (Oct. 7 - Oct. 13):

** Voting for Biden: 48%

** Voting for Trump: 47%

** The race was tied the prior week at 47%-47%.

** 12% said they already had voted.

** 47% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 45% said Trump would be better.

** 52% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.

 

WISCONSIN (Oct. 6 - Oct. 11):

** Voting for Biden: 51%

** Voting for Trump: 44%

** Biden up a point from 50%-44% lead in prior week

** 20% said they already had voted.

** 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better.

** 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.

 

PENNSYLVANIA (Oct. 6 - Oct. 11):

** Voting for Biden: 51%

** Voting for Trump: 44%

** Biden lead up from 50%-45% lead in prior week

** 6% said they already had voted.

** 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better.

** 50% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

 

NOTES

** The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.

 

** In Florida, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 14, it gathered responses from 1,000 adults, including 653 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

 

** In Arizona, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 14, it gathered responses from 998 adults, including 667 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

 

** In Michigan, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13, it gathered responses from 985 adults, including 620 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

 

** In North Carolina, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13, it gathered responses from 1,000 adults, including 660 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

 

** In Wisconsin, from to Oct. 6 to Oct. 11, it gathered responses from 1,002 adults, including 577 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

 

** In Pennsylvania, from to Oct. 6 to Oct. 11, it gathered responses from 1,002 adults, including 622 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

 

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Chris Kahn; Editing by Scott Malone and Peter Cooney)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-10-15
 
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Proboscis Silver Member

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I wonder if anyone has done a study on just how far a candidate can sink in the popular vote and yet win the presential election. Trump managed it by over 2 million votes last time.

 

Another part about the USA that I don't understand is how fragile their democracy is, given that it has been around for a few hundred years. It seems to be so easy to gerrymander (have you seen the shape of some of those counties!); even the members of the electoral college do not have to vote for the candidate that the majority in the state voted for! There seems to be no effective control on money in politics - the government of the USA works for the lobby, not for the people. Even the Supreme Court is subject to dark money in the form of "friends of the court," namely attorneys who address the court on one side or the other. Unfortunately, the general public do not get to see who is paying some of those attorneys who squirrel away looking for some hook in a law which could be used to declare it unconstitutional, thereby taking away anything like medical cover for someone, a woman's right to choose whether to continue with a pregnancy or your rights as a consumer. Apparently the dark money spent on these "friends of the court" amounted to $250million - not peanuts. And what about the power of Governors to reduce the number of drop ballot boxes so that people in certain countries have to drive hundreds of miles to vote! And the long, nasty and shameful history that is still being played out of voter supression. Where is the legislation for these sins against democracy?

 

Stop talking about what could be and should be and just fix these basic features of your democractic system and then other countries might respect you more!

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Orton Rd Platinum Member

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5 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

I wonder if anyone has done a study on just how far a candidate can sink in the popular vote and yet win the presential election. Trump managed it by over 2 million votes last time.

 

 

That's not how the system works is it, other Presidents lost the popular vote but won the election.

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7 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

That's not how the system works is it, other Presidents lost the popular vote but won the election.

I believe he's asking how low a percentage of the popular vote can a candidate get before it's virtually statistically impossible to win enough electoral votes.

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Eric Loh Ruby Member

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5 minutes ago, Siamjim said:

how is this possible? the total tally of ALL Joe's rallies was 84 while Trump's surpass 240,000... Joe's last rally in Az had less than 12 showed up

Quality not quantity. Trump’s rallies only appeal to his base. Biden rallies have wider appeal especially undecided and swing voters. 

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placeholder

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12 minutes ago, Siamjim said:

how is this possible? the total tally of ALL Joe's rallies was 84 while Trump's surpass 240,000... Joe's last rally in Az had less than 12 showed up

As has been exhaustively documented, Biden is purposely not holding mass rallies. If he were to try to do that, not only would it make him a hypocrite but would fail because he hasn't been misleading voters about the dangers of doing so. Unlike the Superspreader-in-Chief.

Edited by placeholder
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Redline Gold Member

Redline

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1 hour ago, Proboscis said:

I wonder if anyone has done a study on just how far a candidate can sink in the popular vote and yet win the presential election. Trump managed it by over 2 million votes last time.

 

Another part about the USA that I don't understand is how fragile their democracy is, given that it has been around for a few hundred years. It seems to be so easy to gerrymander (have you seen the shape of some of those counties!); even the members of the electoral college do not have to vote for the candidate that the majority in the state voted for! There seems to be no effective control on money in politics - the government of the USA works for the lobby, not for the people. Even the Supreme Court is subject to dark money in the form of "friends of the court," namely attorneys who address the court on one side or the other. Unfortunately, the general public do not get to see who is paying some of those attorneys who squirrel away looking for some hook in a law which could be used to declare it unconstitutional, thereby taking away anything like medical cover for someone, a woman's right to choose whether to continue with a pregnancy or your rights as a consumer. Apparently the dark money spent on these "friends of the court" amounted to $250million - not peanuts. And what about the power of Governors to reduce the number of drop ballot boxes so that people in certain countries have to drive hundreds of miles to vote! And the long, nasty and shameful history that is still being played out of voter supression. Where is the legislation for these sins against democracy?

 

Stop talking about what could be and should be and just fix these basic features of your democractic system and then other countries might respect you more!

It's mostly the conservatives because the base is trending away from the~ look at this:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/council-national-policy-video/2020/10/14/367f24c2-f793-11ea-a510-f57d8ce76e11_story.html

 

Remarkable

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Srikcir Platinum Member

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Since Hurricane Maria in 2017, tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to Central Florida. This is a new voting element not encountered by Trump in 2016.

Given Trump's public disdain for Puerto Ricans in 2017 as they struggled to survive Maria's devastation, I expect them to vote Biden in Florida's general election. No close race there.

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placeholder

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3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Since Hurricane Maria in 2017, tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to Central Florida. This is a new voting element not encountered by Trump in 2016.

Given Trump's public disdain for Puerto Ricans in 2017 as they struggled to survive Maria's devastation, I expect them to vote Biden in Florida's general election. No close race there.

It will almost certainly be close. After denying Puerto Rico bad needed aid after hurricane Maria, Trump recently released 13 billion in aid for the island. Don't think it will fool Puerto Ricans much.

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candide Diamond Member

candide

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

Always hire a poll taker that will give you the results you want.

If true, why is it the Repubs are not able to do it? Trump trails Biden in all polls, included GOP-friendly Fox News and Rassmussen.

Don't they have enough money? Are they prevented to do so by ethical concerns? ????????????????

Edited by candide
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Sujo Ruby Member

Sujo

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2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Anyone who believes polls—probably voted for Hillary last time—and was profoundly disappointed.

Politicions use polls. The polls were correct, hillary won the votes.

 

are you concerned.

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Stargeezr Platinum Member

Stargeezr

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Well Trump has orange hair, and Florida is the Orange state, Hmmm.

   I guess that even Trump may get one state to vote for him,  Maybe?

    My hope is that he is so soundly defeated in the election, that the rest of

the surviving Republicans will still have a good time at his expense, and at his

voting head quarters.

Geezer

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ballpoint Star Member

ballpoint

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16 hours ago, placeholder said:

It will almost certainly be close. After denying Puerto Rico bad needed aid after hurricane Maria, Trump recently released 13 billion in aid for the island. Don't think it will fool Puerto Ricans much.

And Trump asking if they could swap it for Greenland wouldn't have helped either.

 

"Miles Taylor, a former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff who was recently featured in a political ad from Republican Voters Against Trump, told MSNBC on Wednesday that President Donald Trump asked him and other officials whether the U.S. could swap Greenland for Puerto Rico because, in Trump's words, "Puerto Rico was dirty and the people were poor.""

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/trump-was-serious-about-trading-hurricane-stricken-puerto-rico-greenland-n1237336

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