Impact of protests on THB vs Dollar & Sterling

[stament]

With protests becoming more regular and no sight of tourism being restored particularly due to second wave covid outbreaks and restrictions in European countries, I would expect the baht to weaken.

 

This being Thailand though, I have very little confidence in that actually happening....

 

Any experts thoughts on where the THB is going to go Vs USD and GBP over the next month and beyond, taking into account the US elections and Brexit LOL.

 

 

[Matzzon]

As you say, this is Thailand. The baht should have fallen long time ago, but seems to just gain instead. Unbelievable!

[Mama Noodle]

Ive been following the THB/USD rates for months now. No real change other than around a 50 satang fluctuation. I dont expect the baht to move much, but personally hope it tanks. 

 

Im more concerned with what the US presidential election is going to do to the state of the dollar, and if I should move over a large sum beforehand. 

[Don Chance]

Expect deflation world wide. USA dollar could collapse next year. Buy Chinese yuan.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Don Chance

[Poet]

27 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Totally believable as they follow the china model of currency manipulation. 

It is more that there has been so much Chinese money swooshing around the world as there is a huge incentive for citizens to get their money out. Thailand was in a good position to benefit from that. The Chinese government were relatively relaxed about money exiting for investment here because it suited their regional aims. The comparatively small size of the Thai economy meant that factor alone propped up the Baht.

It is possible that China might shut off that tap in order to retain as much money as possible for its own post-Covid economic recovery, but I have a feeling they won't as destroying the Thai economy would send the wrong message to other potential puppet states.
 

 

33 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

Im more concerned with what the US presidential election is going to do to the state of the dollar, and if I should move over a large sum beforehand. 

My impression is that the markets have already factored in a Biden win, it won't make the dollar drop much.

 

[madmen]

4 minutes ago, Don Chance said:

Expect deflation world wide.

Can you explain in detail? 

[Poet]

52 minutes ago, stament said:

where the THB is going to go Vs USD and GBP over the next month and beyond, taking into account the US elections and Brexit LOL.

My guess is that Sterling is more likely to strengthen a tad if all the panicked predictions about Brexit turn out to be exaggerated.

Also, there is a reasonable possibility that the Cambridge / AstraZeneca vaccine may turn out to be the most effective one. That would garner a lot of prestige for the UK globally and strike a positive note for their prospects as an independent country. That would bolster Sterling.

 

[Mama Noodle]

19 minutes ago, Poet said:

My impression is that the markets have already factored in a Biden win, it won't make the dollar drop much.

 

Well, everyone thought Hillary was gonna win last time too. Thats the issue. Nobody can reliably predict what's going to happen. 

 

Im leaning towards doing a transfer wise soon, over the next few days when it looks like the dollar is strongest. 

[Scott]

Troll post reported and removed. 

 

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

As you say, this is Thailand. The baht should have fallen long time ago, but seems to just gain instead. Unbelievable!

Totally believable when the West is printing trillions of $ making their currencies worthless.

[tonray]

UK: BREXIT and Covid...

 

USA: Trump, Covid and Election...

 

No surprise our home currencies can't even muster a whimper against the baht given current political unrest

[ThailandRyan]

With economic factors here not looking so good and people having a hard time feeding themselves, it is unfortunate that the Thai Baht is still flying high making the costs for some more as well as the fact that many are out of work.  Strange bedfellows the Baht/Weak economy/ high unemployment/lack of tourists, and yet the Baht is standing strong.  It is almost as if the Baht is using Kamagra jelly to stay so stiff.

[Curt1591]

Is everyone losing faith in currencies? Gold seems to be doing well. 

[Poet]

46 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

Well, everyone thought Hillary was gonna win last time too.

Yes, it was the same deal last time. They had factored in a Democrat win, so, a Republican win gave the markets and the dollar a bump.

This time, Biden is expected to win and that has already slighty depressed the markets and the dollar. If, by some miracle, Trump wins (and, just to be clear, this is extremely unlikely) we will see a slightly bigger bump than last time. This is because the current main factor determining the prospects of the dollar is how much more stimulus spending there will be.

 

46 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

Nobody can reliably predict what's going to happen. 

Actually, the market analysts are pretty good at guessing. If you want a clearer idea of what is going on, read the Financial Times rather than the regular newspapers.
 

 

46 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

Im leaning towards doing a transfer wise soon, over the next few days when it looks like the dollar is strongest.

I wouldn't expect there to be any major changes on the dollar side before the election unless some cure for Covid-19 appears out of nowhere. More chance of some movement on the Baht side if Thailand has a Tianamen moment but, again, that is not likely.

I would just do the transfer whenever you have the time.

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Poet

[worgeordie]

Actually the THB is getting stronger against Sterling,what is

it going to take,nothing seems to affect the THB,Amazing Thailand.

 

regards worgeordie

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Actually the THB is getting stronger against Sterling,what is

it going to take,nothing seems to affect the THB,Amazing Thailand.

 

regards worgeordie

 

 

Yes, it appears the Baht is wearing Superman's cape, and remains unfazed by the economic decay, current political unrest, and lack of capital inflows.  The Baht is in a bubble of it's own it would appear as well.

[Barnabe]

Going to throw my prediction into the ring too!

 

THB - expect it to lose up to 10%, not much more since Thailand is in a pretty strong fiscal position compared to western countries even in the current situation 

 

GBP - weakness while COVID and brexit effects are felt, possible big gains medium term (the brexit gamble) but not going back to pre 2008 levels against USD and EUR though

 

EUR - a house of cards, I predict weakness but then again have been predicting that for a couple of years now and the cards are still up... long term prospects are not good but can still survive propped up by German money or possible EU fiscal / federal integration 

USD - short and medium term gains against major currencies because of all of the above; long term prospects very hard to determine, money printing like crazy but still the king reserve currency 

The big unknown here is RMB, although my hunch is that long term it will make some substantial gains. 

[Kinnock]

With Brexit and record national debt due to an unwise COVID response - the GBP will fall significantly in my view.  Long term I believe the UK economy will recover, but we're looking at 5 years+.

 

I wouldn't write Trump off yet, but I don't think the election will have a huge impact whoever wins, as Trump's rhetoric has been fairly benign in the real world.

 

The Thai protest will weaken non-Chinese FDI, so again limited impact.

 

Gold is already high, so although a good way to ensure you don't lose everything in the event of a Zombie Apocalypse  it is unlikely to grow much more, and in the longer term will fall back to 2019 values.

 

So my view - get out of Stirling for a while.

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Kinnock

[Susco]

2 hours ago, Poet said:

My impression is that the markets have already factored in a Biden win, it won't make the dollar drop much

If Biden wins the dollar will increase in value. It should be common knowledge that Trump favours a weak dollar

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, Henryford said:

Totally believable when the West is printing trillions of $ making their currencies worthless.

Sure, You got a really strong point there. Either you print money or you empty your coffers. All countries are struggling. However, I was very surprised over that the baht kept strong even before Covid-19. Now you can add military tactics from the government, protests and soon riots in the streets and no tourism to that.

As I give you a strong point, I am also very sceptic to how they are handling the currency and if everything really are above board. All persons who live in Thailand for a long time, many years, soon finds out that there is not much that is believable and really working in a by the book legal way. So, why would the currency and the BOT?

[ThailandRyan]

At least my US stocks have been climbing as of late and are back to over where they were prior to Covid.  Can not say the same for the money I moved here and put into a fixed deposit account.  On top of that my Bitcoin and altcoins are kind of stagnating as they have been all year.  If the Baht is such a stalwart currency then why are the interest rates for savings accounts and such so flippin low....

[stament]

WHOA!  Lots of debate on my post...  So do we see the THB moving much in the short-term say till the end of the year?

[polpott]

Just now, stament said:

WHOA!  Lots of debate on my post...  So do we see the THB moving much in the short-term say till the end of the year?

If the political status quo in Thailand is maintained, no. Still billions of THB to be moved into dollar/euro offshore accounts.

[Sheryl]

A number of off-topic posts have been removed.

[Rimmer]

Topic is not about the US election it is about:

 

Impact of protests on THB vs Dollar & Sterling

[Thaiaddict01]

4 hours ago, Barnabe said:

USD - short and medium term gains against major currencies because of all of the above; long term prospects very hard to determine, money printing like crazy but still the Deleted reserve currency 

The big unknown here is RMB, although my hunch is that long term it will make some substantial gains. 

Agreed!

[JusticeGB]

If I could predict the future rates of any currency I would be a very rich man. My pensions come in during the month roughly half in the middle of the month and the rest at the end. I change my money when it comes in and don't gamble on rates just as I don't gamble on horses. 

[Barnabe]

1 hour ago, JusticeGB said:

If I could predict the future rates of any currency I would be a very rich man. My pensions come in during the month roughly half in the middle of the month and the rest at the end. I change my money when it comes in and don't gamble on rates just as I don't gamble on horses. 

Solid advice for OP, as you can see from the different answers here, no one knows.

[Baerboxer]

8 hours ago, Matzzon said:

As you say, this is Thailand. The baht should have fallen long time ago, but seems to just gain instead. Unbelievable!

 

Only Thailand don't rule the world's forex markets, do they?

 

Nor are all the traders Thai.

 

Unbelievable how some posters seem to think Thailand controls and manipulates the world's currency markets! Often the same posters who like to pretend how superior their country is too 555!

[Golden Triangle]

7 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

Well, everyone thought Hillary was gonna win last time too. Thats the issue. Nobody can reliably predict what's going to happen. 

Ask Vladimir in Moscow, he'll put you right ????