U.S. election betting odds tighten but still favour Trump over Biden

By Divya Chowdhury

 

FILE PHOTO: A combination picture shows U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaking during the first 2020 presidential campaign debate, held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

 

(Reuters) - Betting market odds on the U.S. presidential election have begun to tighten once again after flipping in favour of Republican President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to data from three aggregators.

 

Britain-based Smarkets exchange is giving Trump 55% odds of winning, up from 39% when polls opened. The odds on Trump had risen to 80% at one point.

 

Biden's win odds on Smarkets have fallen to 45% from 61% earlier.

 

The flip "has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade county with a large Cuban population," said Patrick Flynn, political analyst at Smarkets.

 

Flynn said early and election-day votes were highly split and the "outcome of this election is going to come down to the types of votes that remain to be counted in some of the key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona."

 

Bettors on British betting exchange Betfair were giving Trump a 75% chance of winning a second term in the White House at 2200 Eastern time (0300 GMT), up from 39% when polls opened on Tuesday morning. Biden's odds of a win on Betfair have fallen to 25% from 61% earlier.

 

"Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said.

 

Meanwhile, New Zealand-based predictions market PredictIt had Trump leading Biden at 62 cents-to-37 cents, from being 61 cents-to-44 cents in favour of the Democratic candidate on Nov. 2.

 

PredictIt's website was hit by an outage earlier. It posted on Twitter that it was working to "bring service back as soon as possible," without saying exactly why it had gone down.

 

(Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Mumbai; additional reporting by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Richard Pullin, Kenneth Maxwell and Kim Coghill)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-11-04

 

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5 minutes ago, webfact said:

"Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said.

Uh oh, that's not toeing the media line that Trump is toast.

At the CNN they are still trying to sugarcoat it.. ????

Just read the tracks in my underwear. Biden - Trump => 250 - 288 

Virtually every uncounted vote in WI, MI, PA, NC and GA would have to be for the Dems for Biden to win now.

 

The fat lady is warming up. 

39 minutes ago, webfact said:

Bettors on British betting exchange Betfair were giving Trump a 75% chance of winning a second term in the White House at 2200 Eastern time (0300 GMT), up from 39% when polls opened on Tuesday morning. Biden's odds of a win on Betfair have fallen to 25% from 61% earlier.

Won't be long before the odds are 100% Trump and 0% Biden.

49.8% to 48.7% of the popular vote (which doesn't matter).  Must be a lot of Trump haters out there because they sure as hell aren't voting for Biden.  No way that Biden was more popular than Clinton.

20 minutes ago, kotsak said:

At the CNN they are still trying to sugarcoat it.. ????

Fox called Florida for Trump long before CNN. They'll be sweating off camera at CNN, and at every polling company that called it for Biden.

50 minutes ago, webfact said:

PredictIt's website was hit by an outage earlier. It posted on Twitter that it was working to "bring service back as soon as possible," without saying exactly why it had gone down.

Could be that it went down because all the tears shorted out the computers

Can't help but think that the left complained when Brexit won out in the UK 51/49 and wanted a recount and re-run, now if Biden wins, it will be them defending the result 51/49 and saying re-running it is completely wrong.

awfully quiet on the american politic forums at the moment. 

 

any reason why ? 

3 minutes ago, mr mr said:

awfully quiet on the american politic forums at the moment. 

 

any reason why ? 

Maybe they are  busy  stacking ammunition and  toilet paper  down in the  fallout shelters ?

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The flip "has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade county with a large Cuban population," said Patrick Flynn, political analyst at Smarkets.

 

Apparently all those Democratic rioters and protesters wearing Che Guevera T shirts and signs didn't go over well with the Cubans in South Florida. 

A lot of pollsters seeking more gainful employment! Getting it even more wrong than 2016.

 

I thought CNN did a good job. No nonsense. Basically Wolf Blitzer and the other guy talking facts about the states and the areas within states etc. 

 I think Trump voters are  wrong but if he wins we have to cop it. 

 

Still a fair chance for Biden - Pennsylvania looks promising in terms of votes to be counted but he's a long way behind. Georgia the same. Michigan looks tough.  Wisconsin looks promising. Arizona appears to be home.

Tough though to see how the pollsters can get it so wrong. The hidden Trump supporters is a thing.

Just shows how pollsters are completely useless. It looks like Trump will squeeze in by a small margin. 

So Trump comes out fighting as predicted, claiming that he has won the election and asking for all vote counting to stop now.  Directly followed by saying that he will take it to the supreme court as the democrats are stealing the election. To Quote him "This is a fraud of the American public". 

 

However this gutless moronic POTUS is just doing what was expected from him, so no surprises really.

18 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Still a fair chance for Biden - Pennsylvania looks promising in terms of votes to be counted but he's a long way behind. Georgia the same. Michigan looks tough.  Wisconsin looks promising. Arizona appears to be home.

America shall reap what it sows. I just don't get it. Probably never will.  

Counts still to finish predict another 77 for Trump and 6 for Biden.

(with 90% of those votes counted)

Counts finished give 213 to Trump and 238 for Biden.

 

Every vote uncounted would have to be for Biden ...... and even then they probably wouldn't change the result.

290 for Trump and 244 for Biden, not even close as Trump wins by 20%.

 

Odd most of the remaining states to be counted are for Trump ....... coincidence?

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

 

Uh oh, that's not toeing the media line that Trump is toast.

 

I think most media venues predicted it would be a tight race.

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Can't help but think that the left complained when Brexit won out in the UK 51/49 and wanted a recount and re-run, now if Biden wins, it will be them defending the result 51/49 and saying re-running it is completely wrong.

 

One is a referendum on a specific issue, and not easily undone (if at all). The other is routine national elections - got them every four years. Not same same.

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Counts still to finish predict another 77 for Trump and 6 for Biden.

(with 90% of those votes counted)

Counts finished give 213 to Trump and 238 for Biden.

 

Every vote uncounted would have to be for Biden ...... and even then they probably wouldn't change the result.

290 for Trump and 244 for Biden.

 

Odd most of the remaining states to be counted are for Trump ....... coincidence?

Before the election they talked a lot about the fact that different states tally votes differently e.g. Florida had counted a lot before hand whereas Pennsylvania and others start on the day. No conspiracy. 

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

 

Uh oh, that's not toeing the media line that Trump is toast.

how? at the moment Biden is ahead in the presidential, the senate and the house votes.

 

19 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Odd most of the remaining states to be counted are for Trump ....... coincidence?

Are you insinuating that Republican States' administrations trying to cheat?

1 hour ago, mr mr said:

awfully quiet on the american politic forums at the moment. 

 

any reason why ? 

Middle of the night perhaps?

3 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

So Trump comes out fighting as predicted, claiming that he has won the election and asking for all vote counting to stop now.  Directly followed by saying that he will take it to the supreme court as the democrats are stealing the election. To Quote him "This is a fraud of the American public". 

 

However this gutless moronic POTUS is just doing what was expected from him, so no surprises really.

 

You must have seen a different speech. In the one I saw he did not ask for all vote counting to stop now.

To Quote him " we want all voting to stop" 

35 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Tough though to see how the pollsters can get it so wrong.

ok if trump wins.........

 

tough to see how it happened the first time. the 2nd time ? 

 

fool me once shame on.....shame on you. fool me.... you can't get fooled again.

21 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Counts still to finish predict another 77 for Trump and 6 for Biden.

(with 90% of those votes counted)

Counts finished give 213 to Trump and 238 for Biden.

 

Every vote uncounted would have to be for Biden ...... and even then they probably wouldn't change the result.

290 for Trump and 244 for Biden, not even close as Trump wins by 20%.

 

Odd most of the remaining states to be counted are for Trump ....... coincidence?

Total is 538. But ok Trump will have his 2nd term ...

I am watching the reports now, flipping from station to station.  Best coverage seems to be the dreaded BBC at the moment but that may change.  After Trumps bizarre claim that he had won, Andrew O'Neil interviewed Dominic Raab who evaded answering every question put to him.   Same with Liam Fox.  They both dodged the issue of Trump lying and  how they would fair with Biden over a trade deal post Brexit.  Next they rolled out Farage.  As you can imagine O'Neil tore him to pieces too.  A joy to watch! 

4 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Middle of the night perhaps?

yes a sleepy night in american politics indeed. 

4 minutes ago, PattayaJames said:

 

You must have seen a different speech. In the one I saw he did not ask for all vote counting to stop now.

To Quote him " we want all voting to stop" 

You are probably right, it must have been a different speech, but he certainly said it!