U.S. election betting odds tighten but still favour Trump over Biden

[Jack Mountain]

3 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

I am watching the reports now, flipping from station to station.  Best coverage seems to be the dreaded BBC at the moment but that may change.  After Trumps bizarre claim that he had won, Andrew O'Neil interviewed Dominic Raab who evaded answering every question put to him.   Same with Liam Fox.  They both dodged the issue of Trump lying and  how they would fair with Biden over a trade deal post Brexit.  Next they rolled out Farage.  As you can imagine O'Neil tore him to pieces too.  A joy to watch! 

bizarre claim? Why? All signs on green for Trump.

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Jack Mountain

[PattayaJames]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

You are probably right, it must have been a different speech, but he certainly said it!

I would like to see that. Do you have a link?

 

[John Drake]

9 minutes ago, PattayaJames said:

 

You must have seen a different speech. In the one I saw he did not ask for all vote counting to stop now.

To Quote him " we want all voting to stop" 

 

Voting should stop if the polls have closed. Counting the votes should continue.

[onthedarkside]

As of 4 pm Thai time:

 

[steven100]

I'll  take 6/4  Trump  .....   for 5k   lol

[dunroaming]

1 minute ago, PattayaJames said:

I would like to see that. Do you have a link?

 

Seen to many reports and interviews to say where it was.  I have been watching for four hours so far, much more to come.

[Fat is a type of crazy]

1 minute ago, mr mr said:

ok if trump wins.........

 

tough to see how it happened the first time. the 2nd time ? 

 

fool me once shame on.....shame on you. fool me.... you can't get fooled again.

The pollsters said they  adjusted for the mistakes last time. Fivethirtyeight.com apparently got it right many elections in a row...until Trump. What is it? Hillbillies hiding under rocks.  

I should say Biden is still some chance.

I wonder if anyone regrets there vote when they see how Trump carried on tonight. No..I guess it was nothing new.

 

 

[mr mr]

2 minutes ago, steven100 said:

I'll  take 6/4  Trump  .....   for 5k   lol

how about a dinner with our prestigious friend instead ? could you imagine the clout you would have then. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by mr mr
sp

[PattayaJames]

Just now, dunroaming said:

Seen to many reports and interviews to say where it was.  I have been watching for four hours so far, much more to come.

 

Then you should know that Trump has only made 1 speech post results.

[sucit]

1 minute ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

The pollsters said they  adjusted for the mistakes last time. Fivethirtyeight.com apparently got it right many elections in a row...until Trump. What is it? Hillbillies hiding under rocks.  

I should say Biden is still some chance.

I wonder if anyone regrets there vote when they see how Trump carried on tonight. No..I guess it was nothing new.

 

 

Why don't you ask yourself why polls have been very accurate for decades and all the sudden they are way off involving two elections with Trump.

 

Go figure that out, and btw it is not "hiding Trump voters", and get back to us with some better informed comments. 

[Susco]

US election: European markets slide as Trump 'declares war' by prematurely claiming victory

European markets slid at the open on Wednesday, shortly after Donald Trump prematurely claimed he had won the US election despite millions of votes remaining uncounted in a tight race.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-election-donald-trump-stocks-european-markets-futures-victory-count-083213028.html

[dunroaming]

6 minutes ago, Jack Mountain said:

bizarre claim? Why? All signs on green for Trump.

 

Watching the screen now showing Biden on 220 and Trump on 213.  Also has popular vote showing Biden at 49.9% against Trump at 48.6% Wouldn't call that green for Trump at the moment.  But I think it all rests and the swing from the postal votes.

[Fat is a type of crazy]

2 minutes ago, sucit said:

Why don't you ask yourself why polls have been very accurate for decades and all the sudden they are way off involving two elections with Trump.

 

Go figure that out, and btw it is not "hiding Trump voters", and get back to us with some better informed comments. 

I guess you have a better answer so please share it. If it involves widespread subterfuge by polling companies please provide some evidence. Polling companies succeed based on there success. Credible polling companies make money from being correct. I am interested in what your theory is.

[JonnyF]

36 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

The hidden Trump supporters is a thing.

 

I don't see them hiding. They just don't feel the need to shout from the rooftops about how awesome and kind and virtuous and smart they are because they vote the way they do (like the left do, both sides of the pond).

[Jack Mountain]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Watching the screen now showing Biden on 220 and Trump on 213.  Also has popular vote showing Biden at 49.9% against Trump at 48.6% Wouldn't call that green for Trump at the moment.  But I think it all rests and the swing from the postal votes.

Suppose Biden gets Nevada and Pa, Trump the rest ...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

[Fat is a type of crazy]

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

 

I don't see them hiding. They just don't feel the need to shout from the rooftops about how awesome and kind and virtuous and smart they are because they vote the way they do (like the left do, both sides of the pond).

I think that for many if you believe in something you don't mind speaking up about it. Polling isn't about shouting from the roof tops - just answering a few questions about your opinion. For some reason polling companies struggle to get the full picture with Trump. Either Trump voters are shy or maybe the polling companies are asking the wrong people.

[dunroaming]

4 minutes ago, PattayaJames said:

 

Then you should know that Trump has only made 1 speech post results.

Who said it was post results?  Trump has been setting the scene for days threatening legal action and taking it to the supreme court and that is when he said about not counting the votes after the deadline. It is true that I have been watching this for four plus hours so far today.  But most of yesterday and the day before. Thankfully the various States have ignored him.   

[dunroaming]

Still a way to go and it could swing either way.  Trump doing better than many predicted.

[BritManToo]

Just now, dunroaming said:

Still a way to go and it could swing either way.  Trump doing better than many predicted.

I predict a Trump win by 20% of the electoral college.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

I predict a Trump win by 20% of the electoral college.

 

I hope he wins the electoral by one vote and loses the popular vote by 10%.

[Susco]

13 minutes ago, Jack Mountain said:

Suppose Biden gets Nevada and Pa, Trump the rest ...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

 

Considering that Michigan and Pennsylvania still have 20 and 36% of votes to count, and that these were early votes, there could be a surprise  in those 2 states.

 

[PattayaJames]

 

8 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Who said it was post results?  Trump has been setting the scene for days threatening legal action and taking it to the supreme court and that is when he said about not counting the votes after the deadline. It is true that I have been watching this for four plus hours so far today.  But most of yesterday and the day before. Thankfully the various States have ignored him.   

 

You did. " So Trump comes out fighting as predicted, claiming that he has won the election and asking for all vote counting to stop now."

 

You should probably get some sleep.

[onthedarkside]

Several derogatory name calling, trolling posts have been removed. Continue in that same path and face suspensions.

 

[Jack Mountain]

3 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Considering that Michigan and Pennsylvania still have 20 and 36% of votes to count, and that these were early votes, there could be a surprise  in those 2 states.

 

Mi. 80, Pa 64% you're right.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Jack Mountain

[melvinmelvin]

should each of the two candidates end up with 50% of the electors,

 

what would be the formal process to follow in order to end up with a president elect and new president?

 

 

 

[Fat is a type of crazy]

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

The left attacks anyone that supports Trump as racist, stupid redneck losers and then the left wonders why people don't want to admit they support Trump. 

 

People aren't voting for Trump as much as they're voting against left. Clearly the left must understand this, as they are certainly not voting for Biden, but simply voting for the left, yes?

I think there's truth that people are not voting for Trump but against the left. I find it strange because Biden's version of left is still fairly right wing compared to many countries including Australia. Having healthcare available to people isn't that left wing in my opinion. He wasn't raising taxes much. Republicans have always been effective at raising fears about the left and it looks like it worked this time.

[natway09]

I did not believe the result last time,

Americans are awfully slow learners,

Trump is a danger to the world

[Jack Mountain]

1 minute ago, natway09 said:

I did not believe the result last time,

Americans are awfully slow learners,

Trump is a danger to the world

A danger to America will be enough. ????

[Susco]

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

I hope he wins the electoral by one vote and loses the popular vote by 10%.

 

In my opinion the whole US election system is rigged,

 

Any candidate that get more than 50% of the popular vote, should be declared winner.

[melvinmelvin]

 

the thread of this thread use the term "betting odds", (yes, I know what that is)

 

however,

to what extent are these odds derived from calculated probabilities of lose/win

and to what extent just a tally of the number and size of placed bets?