Finance minister puts baht’s rise down to currency speculation

[webfact]

Finance minister puts baht’s rise down to currency speculation

By THE NATION

 

 

The baht has been strengthening since last week despite the ongoing political conflict, the finance minister said, adding that speculation may be key to this.

 

The baht closed at Bt30.22 to the greenback on Monday, weakening slightly after opening at Bt30.16 in the morning session.

 

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said in the afternoon that he has discussed the issue with the central bank, which is eyeing measures to deal with the situation.

 

He added that the currency rate was in line with the Stock Exchange of Thailand index, which has been affected positively by Joe Biden’s win in the US. The stock market has also been supported by foreign capital flow in Thailand and the rest of Asia.

 

Arkhom said currency speculation is also a topic of concern. “We need to take several steps to tackle this,” he added.

 

The minister also cited the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)’s announcement that it expects the economy to grow by between 3.5 and 4.5 per cent next year, driven by rising domestic demands, recovery of the world economy, trade, government spending and economic stimulus.

 

He said the gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 6.4 per cent, though people’s spending in the third quarter of this year has risen by 6.3 per cent compared to the second quarter. Also, he said, public investment has risen by 18.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

 

“My ministry will do its best to stimulate people’s spending,” he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30398053

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-11-17

 

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[sammieuk1]

The eyeing of measures to deal with the situation has taken nearly 5 years already but hey us rich are getting richer that's all that matters????

[crazykopite]

More BS 

[ThailandRyan]

Is it speculation or manipulation.  He needs to be sure before he makes any moves that might be seen as harming the Amart.

[Somtamnication]

This guy just won the Sherlock Holmes 2020 award. Been going on since before 1997!

[Wiggy]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

My ministry

And therein lies part of the problem. 

[realfunster]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He added that the currency rate was in line with the Stock Exchange of Thailand index,

 

Sweet Jesus, and this guy is in a position of authority ? What a meaningless comment.

The Baht has strengthened consistently against USD for 6 months, this on the back of one of the worst performing stock markets in Asia, which is still 15% down on pre-COVID valuation. (1,350 vs 1,600)

I know, as I am feeling the pain with my LTF & RMF investments !

[Katipo]

Sounds like they have no idea how to address the situation, so speculation becomes a convenient scapegoat.

[Dogmatix]

Yes, at the margins it is caused by net inflows into the Thai bond market from traders at foreign banks who are expecting returns from a small currency appreciation in THB vs USD as well as the yield pick up. We all knew that but what had caused the traders to expect this currency appreciation? 
 

He is content to give clownish answers to ignorant Thai journalists who scribble it all down and print it verbatim without understanding it. It is clear he would be ripped apart by a room full of foreign financial experts.

[ThailandRyan]

Just waiting for the other shoe to drop with the IMF to get involved and sanctions placed upon Thailand for it's manipulation, over speculation and monetary shenanigans.  We all know that currency speculation is Currency speculation is when investors feel the exchange rate is wrongly valued and so buy/sell currency in the hope of making a profit. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[sandyf]

30 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

He is content to give clownish answers to ignorant Thai journalists who scribble it all down and print it verbatim without understanding it. It is clear he would be ripped apart by a room full of foreign financial experts.

You mean TVF.

[miamiman123]

Impossible with Thailand household debt at 85% of GDP, and add in all those 8 month old repossessed “Fortuners” and other nice cars, sitting there at the Siam Auto Auction, that are now selling at 65% of their original 1.3 million baht?

And then Biden’s position on Thailand? It’s gonna be close to Trumps position. 
Those dollars flowing into Thailand is not USA speculation but rather the good Chinese that this government has catered to.

oh well, just leave those “tools” in your toolbox, and continue to buy buy IF you have the money! 

 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said in the afternoon that he has discussed the issue with the central bank, which is eyeing measures to deal with the situation.

They've been eyeing measures all this year, but despite everything in Thailand this year it still miraculously rises... strange that.

[johnarth]

miamiman123 beautiful that hits the nail on the head

[madmen]

I'm on an extended stay in Oz and have baht coming in from a Bangkok rental.... Keep going up baby! 

[SupermarineS6B]

3 hours ago, crazykopite said:

More BS 

Oooh yes........ But it's the best BS ........ 

[Misterwhisper]

The only reason why the THB has appreciated so sharply against both the greenback and the euro is that Thailand recently welcomed 39 Chinese "tourists" who reportedly arrived with 946 suitcases divided among them. And "dirty laundry" they DID contain.

 

[Sarcasm Alert]

[Enzian]

It doesn't take a genius to see that the baht has strengthened because the dollar as measured by the Dollar Index has been weakening since March-April, that this movement has some momentum, and that if the US political class piles on more unneeded stimulus and debt the situation will simply worsen, even though the Thais themselves are only moderately bright in this regard.

Back when the baht hit 32 1/2 I should have converted my FCD account into baht, and been nicely set, but I'm lazy and not good at timing anything. And I don't think it's going back there for a while.

[SuperTed]

14 minutes ago, Enzian said:

It doesn't take a genius to see that the baht has strengthened because the dollar as measured by the Dollar Index has been weakening since March-April, that this movement has some momentum, and that if the US political class piles on more unneeded stimulus and debt the situation will simply worsen, even though the Thais themselves are only moderately bright in this regard.

Back when the baht hit 32 1/2 I should have converted my FCD account into baht, and been nicely set, but I'm lazy and not good at timing anything. And I don't think it's going back there for a while.

That is certainly one part of it. But how do gold speculation in BKK and massive influx of RMB and USD from China impact that analysis? In five years of asking, I have yet to find anyone - government and top economists included - who can offer a clear explanation of the movements of the THB. As mysterious as a Thai woman's heart.

[Isaan sailor]

47 minutes ago, miamiman123 said:

Impossible with Thailand household debt at 85% of GDP, and add in all those 8 month old repossessed “Fortuners” and other nice cars, sitting there at the Siam Auto Auction, that are now selling at 65% of their original 1.3 million baht?

And then Biden’s position on Thailand? It’s gonna be close to Trumps position. 
Those dollars flowing into Thailand is not USA speculation but rather the good Chinese that this government has catered to.

oh well, just leave those “tools” in your toolbox, and continue to buy buy IF you have the money! 

 

Agreed.  And for a dose of reality—USD (and all trade-connected western currencies) have tanked in last two weeks.  Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan has risen by an equal but opposite amount.  And for some perspective, consider that the Vietnam Dong has remained constant vs the USD.  Vietnam has a history of standing up to China—Thailand does not.

So who do you think is manipulating currencies?

[sanuk711]

28 minutes ago, Enzian said:

It doesn't take a genius to see that the baht has strengthened because the dollar as measured by the Dollar Index has been weakening since March-April

True--- But everyone blames Thailand, they think there are these mystery Hi So Thai figures wandering around controlling it  and making fortunes everyday. If you put all the money you think they have, it wouldn't come within a mile of what these oversea fund managers handle--If they want to park some of that money here because they think the Baht is a safe option---(and its proving to be) then all the wishing wont make an iota of difference.

 

 

[kiwikeith]

3 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

Sweet Jesus, and this guy is in a position of authority ? What a meaningless comment.

The Baht has strengthened consistently against USD for 6 months, this on the back of one of the worst performing stock markets in Asia, which is still 15% down on pre-COVID valuation. (1,350 vs 1,600)

I know, as I am feeling the pain with my LTF & RMF investments !

And some people just keep on buying gold 

[Monkeyrobot]

When the mob turns on you make sure you have plenty of US dollar in an offshore account, and a private jet if possible , alternatively escape my submarine.

[kensisaket]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

 

“My ministry will do its best to stimulate people’s spending,” he added.

Lead story 2 million people will be jobless without Chinese tourists, followed by this quote. Amazing Thailand.

[Xonax]

The Thai Baht has risen during Trumps reign and now continues to rise after Bidens win. How can this be due to Bidens win?

[metisdead]

A post with a music video has been removed. 

[Flying Saucage]

This quite interesting article might give an insight about mechanisms that lead to the strong Bang:

 

 

AMRO-Market-Insights_The-Thai-Baht-and-Gold-v2_Oct-02-2020 (1).pdf

Edited November 17, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[Edwin Cameron]

Joe Bidens win.......come on man..! it aint over yet.

[ExpatOilWorker]

9 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

This quite interesting article might give an insight about mechanisms that lead to the strong Bang:

 

 

AMRO-Market-Insights_The-Thai-Baht-and-Gold-v2_Oct-02-2020 (1).pdf 159.54 kB · 2 downloads

Important reason:

 

the repatriation of Thais’ overseas investments (direct, portfolio, currency and deposits) (Figure 10), as households and corporates brought assets home to supplement lost income and, at the same time, reflecting risk aversion and lack of investment opportunities abroad.

[Mavideol]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

“My ministry will do its best to stimulate people’s spending,” he added.

meaning "I can not depreciate the baht or I will lose my job and might get killed by the Hi So"

how can he stimulate people's spending if people have no money to spend....