Don’t rush to open the country, warns former WTO chief

[webfact]

Don’t rush to open the country, warns former WTO chief

By The Nation

 

Former director general of the World Trade Organisation, Supachai Panitchpakdi. File photo.

 

Former director general of the World Trade Organisation, Supachai Panitchpakdi, has urged the Thai government not to rush to open the country to foreign tourists amid the ongoing threat from Covid-19.

 

He pointed out that Western countries are loosening and re-imposing lockdowns in a cycle that is resulting in a large number of infections and deaths, as well as severely hurting economies.

 

He warned of the long-term impact of Thailand lifting its restrictions on foreign travellers. 

 

“Thailand should gradually open the country, because human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,” he said.

 

Saving lives is the best way to aid economic recovery post-Covid-19, said Supachai, who is also a former secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

 

The government has opened the country to a limited number of foreign tourists, in a bid to help tourism recover from the devastating impact of the virus.

 

Supachai noted the economy is expected to contract 5 to 6 per cent this year, up from the previous forecast of 7-8 per cent contraction.

 

He expressed optimism that Thai economic growth and exports would return to positive territory next year. Faster recovery of China and Asean countries would benefit Thai exports, he predicted.

 

However, he warned exporters not to rely on a weaker baht. Baht appreciation could dampen exports, so exporters should reorganise their businesses to increase their competitive advantage, he suggested.

 

Meanwhile he urged the central bank to raise the interest rate since its low level of 0.5 per cent was hitting savers’ income.

 

Rising household debt was also a worry, he said. Thais are getting into debt at a younger age, in contrast to people in other countries who don’t get indebted until much older, he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30398645

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-11-27

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[tribalfusion001]

Rush 555, 8 months now and counting with nothing much on the horizon apart from 3 month tourist visa 14 days ASQ. After watching a few videos on ASQ tonight on YouTube, it's not for me and nor is the limited tested vaccines. Quick tests using maybe Lateral Flow or similar is the only way of getting things moving again.

[timendres]

53 minutes ago, webfact said:

However, he warned exporters not to rely on a weaker baht.

 

Has Mr. Panitchpakdi been getting updates from the BOT?

[ezzra]

On a one hand you have common sense and on the other you have massive losses from industries that used to rake in billions in tourists related businesses and now they'are imploding on themselves...What do you do?...

[meechai]

41 minutes ago, ezzra said:

On a one hand you have common sense and on the other you have massive losses from industries that used to rake in billions in tourists related businesses and now they'are imploding on themselves...What do you do?...

 

 

You say you have common sense on the one hand but do you?

"common sense" = "a common-sense approach"

good sense and sound judgment in practical matters.

 

On the surface most might say yes but....

 

Is a virus with a 9x.xx% survival rate in otherwise healthy people worth the effect/destruction of economies achieved thus far?

I have a wealth of no idea & am glad it is not my decision to make but watching it does not appear to me anyway to be a common sense approach

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by meechai

[bkk6060]

2 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Rush 555, 8 months now and counting with nothing much on the horizon apart from 3 month tourist visa 14 days ASQ. After watching a few videos on ASQ tonight on YouTube, it's not for me and nor is the limited tested vaccines. 

Maybe you should rethink it.

Sunny and warm here great golf and beach weather, places are open with minimal Covid inconveniences.

But hey, if you prefer to be stuck in the cold and wet in a locked down country with with high hospitalizations and deaths and no Covid relief in sight possibly for many months, then good luck.

Sounds totally depressing to me. So happy to be in LOS.

 

 

 

[nobodysfriend]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Western countries are loosening and re-imposing lockdowns in a cycle that is resulting in a large number of infections and deaths, as well as severely hurting economies

 

He is right there .

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,

 

That statement is cynical and cold .

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Saving lives is the best way to aid economic recovery post-Covid-19,

 

It is all about the economic recovery ...?

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Meanwhile he urged the central bank to raise the interest rate since its low level of 0.5 per cent was hitting savers’ income.

 

That is right , again .

Edited November 27, 2020 by nobodysfriend

[nobodysfriend]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

On a one hand you have common sense and on the other you have massive losses from industries that used to rake in billions in tourists related businesses and now they'are imploding on themselves...What do you do?...

That's an easy to answer question ...

Thailand's current approach is the best and only way in the moment .

Quarantine on arrival is scaring away many potential tourists , but so are packed flights .

Tourist related businesses would suffer even more if there is a major outbreak in Thailand , because nobody would come anymore at all ...

Thailand's population would suffer from taking that risk ( and from the then re-imposed restrictions ) , and the government would be held responsible for that . And it would ruin Thailand's reputation as being a safe destination .

They cannot just open the border and let tourists in again . Not yet .

May be if a working vaccine is found , potential tourists who have been vaccinated and tested can be allowed to board a plane and enter the country without quarantine ... but for the moment it is still far too early for that .

[rupert the bear]

a balanced perspective?the economy is imploding.families and loved ones are separated.we need to protect ourselves from covid.all facts.why not allow people in that are not carrying covid.?that can show that with a neg PCR?then they book a flight after getting a visa,theyre tested on arrival again.spend a week in quarantine .the prices for such a service are obscene this is the main barrier.insurance ,ok ive seen it at reasonable rates.but the hotel scam and all the hurdles .simplyfy it and get things moving,retirees with property and family are locked out ,its absurd

[Surasak]

1 hour ago, meechai said:

 

 

You say you have common sense on the one hand but do you?

"common sense" = "a common-sense approach"

good sense and sound judgment in practical matters.

 

On the surface most might say yes but....

 

Is a virus with a 9x.xx% survival rate in otherwise healthy people worth the effect/destruction of economies achieved thus far?

I have a wealth of no idea & am glad it is not my decision to make but watching it does not appear to me anyway to be a common sense approach

 

Common sense is like deodorant, the people who need it most never use it.

[miamiman123]

Bring that BAHT down!!!

yeah they don’t want do that!!

let’s open the country

screw the export trade here..... we like that strong baht to buy those USA Ferrari's and homes and pay for our kids education at Oxford or Harvard!

get those baht tools out of the tool chest and get to work!

that will help the this economy!!!

 

[kiwikeith]

3 hours ago, timendres said:

 

Has Mr. Panitchpakdi been getting updates from the BOT?

The weaker BHT is killing exporters, not the filthy rich.

So caution is wise, but using caution takes a great deal of wisdom.

You cant open to USA that's mad, but you can slowly open to safe countries.

And when the vaccine comes along Qantas will welcome flyers.

 

Some rich men will have to print lots of loot to get the airlines up and running, meanwhile lie down and wait for Pfzier, Sputnik and Sino to jab you.

[Katipo]

60 plus people die on the roads every day in Thailand. Why is so little done to prevent those lost 'human resources'? I suppose selective compassion is better than none at all.

[Rimmer]

A troll post has been removed, don't like the topic then don't read it and move on but do not leave your comments on here for others to read and for us to clear up after you.

[CLW]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

He pointed out that Western countries are loosening and re-imposing lockdowns in a cycle that is resulting in a large number of infections and deaths, as well as severely hurting economies.

But keep the country locked and see the tourism industry die, doesn't hurt the Thai economy?

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“Thailand should gradually open the country, because human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,” he said.

What human resources? A Thai bachelor degree is less worth than a vocational or high school degree elsewhere. Adding to that, the death rate among young people that had covid-19 is very small. And the young people are the biggest share of current Thai population

[spidermike007]

No tourism program requiring quarantine will attract more than a few thousand visitors a year. Testing programs are the answer. 

 

Notice how all the people advocating waiting, are either wealthy, or have comfy salaries and pensions? 

[Time Traveller]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“Thailand should gradually open the country, because human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,” he said.

What an idiot.  Statistics showing that 99% of the people who are infected don't die. And of that 1% that do die the median age is above 70 years old.   So no, Mr Brainiac, the whole younger working age Thai generation is not going to be dead from coronavirus.  

This really is a scam to impose totalitarian controls on freedoms of people.

[Freigeist365]

Why not keep the whole world in lockdown until every of us "peasants" has died off in famine and chaos, so the filthy "Elite" can do their bloody Schwab "Grrrreeeeeaaat Rrrrrreeeeessettttt" without us. Tired of this whole BS and expert muppets who don't have an <deleted> clue what they are talking about.

[Time Traveller]

3 minutes ago, Freigeist365 said:

Why not keep the whole world in lockdown until every of us "peasants" has died off in famine and chaos, so the filthy "Elite" can do their bloody Schwab "Grrrreeeeeaaat Rrrrrreeeeessettttt" without us. Tired of this whole BS and expert muppets who don't have an <deleted> clue what they are talking about.

That's the plan. 

The people with the power - the older generation who happened to be a slightly higher risk - impose their will against the younger powerless generation who are very low risk.

[Time Traveller]

1 hour ago, Katipo said:

60 plus people die on the roads every day in Thailand. Why is so little done to prevent those lost 'human resources'? I suppose selective compassion is better than none at all.

I've been saying that for 6 months.  If the government was really about saving lives then they should be consistent. So in addition to banning foreigners they need also ban cars, trucks, busses, motorcycles in order to protect thai lives too.

[Freigeist365]

So far, this year I have lost three!!!! Expat friends including one suicide. While the two others most (until now healthy) likely were dying of stress, fear of getting broke due to C19 lockdown and "hey, let's kill the economy - that'll help!" approach, the suicide was clearly related to the dire situation those so-called "experts" and politicians have put us in... Of the two other friends, one had a stroke, the other a heart attack (at 52!!!!!!).

So, there you go, Mr. expert, in regards of "saving life"  You f%$#ng moronic maniacs!!!!!! Go and count all the above yearly average suicides worldwide and keep in mind, Mr. expert, that those responsible for these deaths are people like you!

Edited November 27, 2020 by Freigeist365

[kcpattaya]

We should ask K Somchai for a second opinion, I think.

[chilli42]

And what exactly qualifies this clown to weigh in on this issue?  His opinion is no more useful or insightful than any man on the street.  Why does the media keep enabling these non experts to have a say?

[John Drake]

5 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

And what exactly qualifies this clown to weigh in on this issue?

 

He's a career politician, of course.

[dallen52]

No rush here.

1700 certificate of entry issued in October. 

Same time last year was 3 million people entered. 

 

Maybe the 100,000 baht associated costs has something to do with it?

 

[Guderian]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“Thailand should gradually open the country, because human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,” he said.

 

He's completely lost me there...

...does he think Thailand might remain closed for 20 to 30 years?

And what human resources is he worried about losing? And why are they all going to die???

[shackleton]

It seems everytime  someone new makes comments ie the WTO

The goalposts  move whether letting in tourists or not is a good thing for Thailands economy 

Would have thought most tourists will wait until a vaccine is found 

Plus quarantine  restrictions  are  lifted  before any thoughts of travelling 

Not many  if any flights from Europe until the Countries there get the virus sorted out

So for the  normal tourist its  many light months away

2021-2022 earliest 

 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

He pointed out that Western countries are loosening and re-imposing lockdowns in a cycle that is resulting in a large number of infections and deaths, as well as severely hurting economies.

Good sense, wait for an effective vaccine, then talk about a measured tourist influx next year.

Open up now you will get what Europe has got.... real trouble with more lock-downs.

The resorts will have to put up with it for now.

The alternative is open up, get infections then close everything down.... including all the companies and vendors which are operating now.

 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

On a one hand you have common sense and on the other you have massive losses from industries that used to rake in billions in tourists related businesses and now they'are imploding on themselves...What do you do?...

Stick with half the country working... that's better than being back to a lock-down and everything shut.

[SymS]

Most people who die are already retired. Not saying that to be mean, or that we should not care about the eldery, but rather I don't think his point that "“Thailand should gradually open the country, because human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,”  is valid.