Thailand reports biggest coronavirus surge, over 500 cases - Samut Sakhon placed in to lockdown

[bodga]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

properly wearing a quality mask is the key.

and absolutely NONE of that us  done in Thailand, rule  number one dont touch the mask, forget the chin  huggers and mouth only coverers, they paw those mask more than the world champion Yo-Yo master

[Kiujunn]

13 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

This means that Thailand will now be in a very compromised state and I certainly hope they can contain this.

My gut feeling says this may be very serious.

In all probability there will soon be problems at the notorious slack  southern borders.

Over 500 tested positive is not a small outbreak it is  huge.

 

They say positivity rate is 43%. That would be unbelievably high. It reminds me of the outbreaks in slaughterhouses in the Dakotas, in Germany and so on. This is about the same rate as the rate of infection of migrant workers (more or less slaves) in Singapore (but they were infected over a longer time period, not all at once).

Singapore has 300,000 of them and detained them all in their dorms. 

Thailand has 10 times more,  they are all over the place. 

As a native speaker,  you can easily hear them at BigC, at construction sites,  at cheap restaurants...

[Kaopad999]

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

Like the leaky borders, what could possibly go wrong?

well this is the issue isn't it... money talks.... 
Maybe better to have the army controlling it instead. 

[wmlc]

12 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

Interesting to see these results, now as the land of purity Thailand eventually is starting to do some mass testing.

 

No need to panic too much, though. Thailand is in a lucky situation due to its climate. Thanks to the hot climate, people are either outdoors where the concentration of the virus loaded aerosols is low, as the dwell time of droplets and aerosols in the air is short.

 

Or they are indoors with an AC switched on, and the AC reduces aerosols and droplets in the air as well, leading also to low virus concentrations in the inhaled air. This low virus load statistically leads to mostly weak or asymptomatic cases. 

 

The outcome never will reach the level as northern countries experience during the wet and cold winter there.

 

Quite likely that what they are seeing now has been the situation for quite a while already, but due to not testing nobody saw it.

 

So you seem to be an expert on Covid  are you? Keep dreaming. This will lead to thousands of new cases in Bangkok and the rest of Thailand. Thais don’t care about Covid. Last weekend there was a music festival in Pattaya packed full of people taking no precautions and no masks or social distancing. The Thai bars  are packed full of people everyday. Covid is here but no tests until now. 

[bermondburi]

15 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Does not Myanmar and Thailand share similar climates?

I don't understand your logic?

It's a microclimate. Didn't you know? ????

[bristolgeoff]

The uk and europe are seeing rises in the virus.London tonight is the place you don,t want to be now.Can,t be the farangs not allowed in,but they let  the neighbours in sneaked in thru the borders.now they see a rise,i wonder what they will do now

[Burma Bill]

On 12/19/2020 at 11:18 PM, cyril sneer said:

It was only a matter of time..

 

Surely this means another lockdown?

Evidently yes, but locally for now as reported by Globe News (on my Facebook page today):-

 

548 new #COVID19 cases have been confirmed by health officials in Samut Sakhon. The Bangkok suburb is now in lockdown until January 3, with residents to remain indoors from 10pm until 5am.

The area is just 45 kilometers to the west of Bangkok. It is mainly migrant works who are infected, and most of the cases have no symptoms.

Samut Sakhon Governor Veerasak Vichitsaengsri said the province will reintroduce travel restrictions and business closures to stop the spread of the virus.

“The situation is certainly more severe than many of us had thought,” Veerasak said at the press briefing late on Saturday.

[London Fog]

What does Samut Sakhon in lock down mean? Can people still travel between Bangkok and Hua Hin? 

[Elkski]

19 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Does not Myanmar and Thailand share similar climates?

I don't understand your logic?

Yes he seems behind the curve.  Isn't this wintertime in Thailand?   It maybe the thai peppers? Or has Thailand had a similar  virus before?  Or are thai people just tougher due to their lifetime germ exposure?  

The main thing that worries me is when someone says dont worry its under control.   Only 1 death,  it will be gone by April.   Anutin the drug expert is not very well liked by that's. 

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I have a domestic leisure trip this coming week...my only concern is another nationwide travel lockdown and I'm not able to return to Pattaya. I don't want to be stuck away from home like those who were caught outside the country when the doors were locked.

Me too. But, I am not worried. Even during lockdown last time, it was possible to travel. Let us hope this is something they are able to bring under control quickly.

 

The more I think about it, the more angry I get. The Thai army is getting hundreds of billions of baht a year from the people. The very least the people can expect in return, is protection of some sort. With hundreds of thousands of soldiers, what on earth are these guys doing with their time, if not patrolling the borders, the rivers, and the seas, during a pandemic the neighbors are dealing with? Fishing boats should be randomly stopped, and checked. Borders should be locked down. Something seems very fishy here.

[moe666]

11 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

Yes, it spreads viruses, but by doing so, at the same time the concentration of the virus in the air (number of virus contaminated aerosols per volume of inhaled air) gets lower. Additionally, virus containing droplets and aerosols condensate in the AC.

 

The result is (always statistically) a reduced number of inhaled viruses, which leads to less severe infections. I haven''t seen any publications about that yet, but for reasons of physics, this seems to be logical and could be one explanation about the situation in Thailand.

 

It will depend on how much fresh air you are bringing into the room, or train or airplane how much the virus deplets. You need lots of fresh air coming in. In the good old days air travel was known for being the place to get sick. The airlines cut the amount of fresh air intake to the min. to save money on fuel, it took alot of fuel to raise the temp. of the outside air at 30,000feet. You have to have a lot of fresh air coming into any space to cut the amout of covid virus from unsafe to safer

[Almer]

Dont panic it was always going to be case of   "seek and ye shall find"

[Pattaya Spotter]

16 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Me too. But, I am not worried. Even during lockdown last time, it was possible to travel. Let us hope this is something they are able to bring under control quickly.

 

The more I think about it, the more angry I get. The Thai army is getting hundreds of billions of baht a year from the people. The very least the people can expect in return, is protection of some sort. With hundreds of thousands of soldiers, what on earth are these guys doing with their time, if not patrolling the borders, the rivers, and the seas, during a pandemic the neighbors are dealing with? Fishing boats should be randomly stopped, and checked. Borders should be locked down. Something seems very fishy here.

I hope you are right...I just checked my hotel booking and it's a non-refundable prepaid rate. Haven't bothered to check the Air Asia flight. (I do have an annual travel policy...I know right, bought it in February just before everything hit the fan, so if there is a government travel lockdown by Tuesday I could get reimbursed for my hotel and airfare already paid.) I just hope when I go on Tuesday they don't announce a lockdown Wednesday...presumably if they do they would allow a couple days for people to get where they need to be.

 

As for the Thai army, they are very good at making generals, marching in parades, and staging coups (they've had a lot of practice) but actual fighting and protecting the country's integrity (or in this case just keeping unarmed migrants from crossing the borders) they are a complete failure. Thailand has continually lost territory to its neighbors over the past 200 years.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[Miami007]

10 hours ago, Elkski said:

I sure hope they can get on top of this.   

All you guys wanting the tourist gates open. well here is what I predicted would happen.  Most likely this is the more easily  spread 614G mutation that  Thailand  missed back in Jan Feb.   I commend Thailand for trying so hard at contact tracing.  I hope they don't end up with to many cases to track.  Please no new Hotspot.  

This explosion has been swift.   It was just 12 cases and now 500+ and GF says on BKK news sat night is was 800+.  She says everyone at work was talking about this and mad as h3ll. 

I strongly disagree with flying sausages guess work.    No real studies have been done with this virus relating to spread conditions.   Its stupid to say a 2-5 stop trip is a sardine packed BTS is low risk.  Remember this can enter your body via your eyes.   What about the que lines waiting to buy tickets or for  2-3 trains during crowded times?  How many people do you bump into? How many mouths are within 2 meters.   No one is testing these homemade masks.   So many are worn losely.  If you have never been officially test fitted for a ????  mask you have no idea how critical the fit and seal is.   I have been fitted where they use this highly stinky dust and if is very hard to learn how to wear a mask properly to block it.    How many times have you smelled someone's hotdogs burp at a ball game or in a ski lift line.  As a bow  hunter with an above average sense of smell I am an very aware of which direction my scent is traveling and I know molecules travel very far.  Molecules we smell are gigantic HC chains not a single cell .2 micron  covid19.   

I'm not convinced the "wet" market means so much for this outbreak other than it being full of border crossing workers who probably live and work in crowded conditions.   And it is a busy market with lots of plastic bags and probably  most handling money and fish without washing hands like most markets. 

There was no tourism and borders were closed. How did the first foreign worker (who must have been in Thailand since March) get the virus? 

Obviously, no surprise that 50% of the migrant workers tested positive based on dense living conditions ( same situation in Singapore).

 

The virus existed in Thailand the whole time- but asymptomatic people were not tested in large numbers. Now they found 90% of the cases to be without symptoms. 

 

[Dialemco]

Hope this is not the start of predicted second wave. UK scientists reported to WHO that the viras has mutated to be much more infectious.

[Pattaya Spotter]

5 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

There was no tourism and borders were closed. How did the first foreign worker (who must have been in Thailand since March) get the virus? 

Obviously, no surprise that 50% of the migrant workers tested positive based on dense living conditions ( same situation in Singapore).

 

The virus existed in Thailand the whole time- but asymptomatic people were not tested in large numbers. Now they found 90% of the cases to be without symptoms. 

 

I wonder what definition of "asymptomatic" they are using...the hapless migrant worker hasn't keeled-over and died? The most I've seen from all other studies around the world is 40-50% asymptomatic rates. Is this another instance of "amazing Thailand"?

Edited December 20, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[RR2020]

The reason the EU and USA have such high figures is everyone is recommended to get a test, even if you were near someone infected.  So everyone is getting tested.  There is no stigma.  Everyone slightly sick is happy to get a test.

 

Thailand has made Covid a Stigma........an Embarrassment ..........nobody wants to get tested. They will struggle at home and hide.

 

So Covid is likely rampant in Thailand, its just not getting checked or tested for in the right places.  Tests are only good if they are done on potentially sick people.  No point doing 200,000 tests on healthy people.

 

Look at the these people.........they have symptoms but dont get tested.......until they feel really bad, then days later tested because they have to go to hospital.

 

Thailand needs to stop making Covid a stigma, accept it, embrace it.....find it.......and then control it.  Stop trying to be "whiter than white"............your not, your as dirty as everyone else..........so deal with it.

[Saltire]

55 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

I think you are right, best to stay safe, & good luck. 

Thanks, makes a change from those more cavalier telling me to stay behind my sofa. As a 65 years old, type 2 diabetic with high blood pressure and 3 stents, I can't afford to be so brave and so will continue to err on the side of caution a while longer.

 

 

[ChrisKC]

13 hours ago, SGD said:

Are they actually going to start telling the truth for once ?

 

Why is this the truth? You choose to believe only that which you want to believe. How do you know the truth isn't really 10,000? Do you have some access to truth that the likes of me are missing?

[Kiujunn]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

Thailand is testing a single outbreak, probably the more infectious G614 strain from Myanmar. The West and US have been hammered for almost a year.

 

Pandemics don't produce secret, low level, wide spread ongoing infections.  They come is big bursts, usually one region after another. That's how contagions work. 

Not quite correct. 

That's how THIS pandemic works,  due to overdispersion (the index of overdispersion kappa is estimated to be as low as .1) and possibly fat-tail distribution. 

This means, very few people are responsible for most new infections (through superspreading events), and the contagion comes in clusters, "big bursts", as you say.

Most infected people don't infect anybody. 

 

Seasonal influenza,  on the other side, doesn't behave like this,  kappa is 1.

Most patients contribute equally to the further spread of the infection. 

 

Overdispersion is "good", because to fight the disease you only have to fight the clusters. See Japan.

Overdispersion is dangerous,  because most people cannot grasp the concept and only look at (possibly deceptively low) averages.  They don't realize how fast things can get out of control and wait too long. See most Western countries. 

 

 Most people don't infect anybody. That's why it often takes months until covid gets a foothold in a country,  it may have to be imported several times. See Thailand. 

So the pandemic affects "usually one region after another", as you correctly state. 

[Kaopad999]

4 minutes ago, Saltire said:

Thanks, makes a change from those more cavalier telling me to stay behind my sofa. As a 65 years old, type 2 diabetic with high blood pressure and 3 stents, I can't afford to be so brave and so will continue to err on the side of caution a while longer.

 

 

You're welcome.  Some people just like to play the big shot behind their keyboards. The most important thing is that you take care of yourself and others around you. No  one knows your own body better than yourself.  

[Kiujunn]

16 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

There was no tourism and borders were closed. How did the first foreign worker (who must have been in Thailand since March) get the virus? 

Obviously, no surprise that 50% of the migrant workers tested positive based on dense living conditions ( same situation in Singapore).

 

The virus existed in Thailand the whole time- but asymptomatic people were not tested in large numbers. Now they found 90% of the cases to be without symptoms. 

 

Borders have always been wide open. 

Not for tourists,  of course.

Open for the trade of humans (for sex work and other work), of drugs (remember those 12 tons of...?), of teak and of jade.

[spidermike007]

25 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I hope you are right...I just checked my hotel booking and it's a non-refundable prepaid rate. Haven't bothered to check the Air Asia flight. (I do have an annual travel policy...I know right, bought it in February just before everything hit the fan, so if there is a government travel lockdown by Tuesday I could get reimbursed for my hotel and airfare already paid.) I just hope when I go on Tuesday they don't announce a lockdown Wednesday...presumably if they do they would allow a couple days for people to get where they need to be.

 

As for the Thai army, they are very good at making generals, marching in parades, and staging coups (they've had a lot of practice) but actual fighting and protecting the country's integrity (or in this case just keeping unarmed migrants from crossing the borders) they are a complete failure. Thailand has continually lost territory to its neighbors over the past 200 years.

 

 

 

I think it is safe to say the Thai army is a complete failure at everything they are supposed to do, and everything they stand for, or represent. All they seem to be capable of is putting down dissent, and moving the nation backwards. The lack of ability to stop the flow of diseased people at the stunningly porous borders would appear to be evidence of that failure. At the bases they have a sign that say something about protecting the nation. So, where is the protection now?

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 

I think it is safe to say the Thai army is a complete failure at everything they are supposed to do, and everything they stand for, or represent. All they seem to be capable of is putting down dissent, and moving the nation backwards. The lack of ability to stop the flow of diseased people at the stunningly porous borders would appear to be evidence of that failure. At the bases they have a sign that say something about protecting the nation. So, where is the protection now?

You forgot to add that they are primarily concerned with stamping out corruption and ensuring the brown envelopes are empty,  yes sarcasm.  This Government has an agenda to ensure the poor are kept down and the rich get richer like the man at the top who should be a true figurehead instead of being involved in the daily operations, its all about Ego.

[Polaky]

Great!, just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water .

[digger70]

14 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Local cases have previously largely been found in people observing quarantine after having been in close contact with an infected person. Most of Thailand's recent cases have been imported.

That's the problem Illegals and returners  that Don't get tested spreading the virus.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings ,,, she's got the flu ,won't be singing for a while, Couple or more yrs from now.

[John Drake]

9 hours ago, Mango Bob said:

The government has failed the Thai people. They have no vaccine. They figured they had everything under control. Now this big outbreak.   This also will mean tourism is over for the high season.  Who is coming here when they hear about the outbreak.  They should had the vaccine by now.

 

They bought the wrong one. Went with the British vaccine instead of the American one. Guess they didn't want to offend China or something.

[anchadian]

Migrants queuing for testing in Samuk Sakhon

[rabas]

19 minutes ago, Kiujunn said:

Not quite correct. 

That's how THIS pandemic works,  due to overdispersion (the index of overdispersion kappa is estimated to be as low as .1) and possibly fat-tail distribution. 

This means, very few people are responsible for most new infections (through superspreading events), and the contagion comes in clusters, "big bursts", as you say.

Most infected people don't infect anybody. 

OK, good point. This was my argument in a few posts about COVID-19 and doesn't apply to all pandemics, e.g. influenza. The outbreak in Samut Sakhon is the super spreading event where a small source creates a large outbreak. The same may have also applied to SARS1 as far as that went. (another difference between SARS and the flu?)

 

The second part of my argument was against the low level smooth, uniform transmission everywhere that many use to support the incorrect notion that COVID is has been everywhere in Thailand all along. The best proof is the absence of symptomatic local cases, which should be about 70%-80%.

[anchadian]

19 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

They bought the wrong one. Went with the British vaccine instead of the American one. Guess they didn't want to offend China or something.

I don't think they have the cold storage facilities to store the Pilzer vaccine.