China to leapfrog U.S. as world's biggest economy by 2028: think tank

[rooster59]

China to leapfrog U.S. as world's biggest economy by 2028: think tank

 

FILE PHOTO: People look at the skyline of the Central Business District in Beijing, China, April 16, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

 

LONDON (Reuters) - China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said.

 

"For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China," the Centre for Economics and Business Research said in an annual report published on Saturday.

 

"The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour."

 

The CEBR said China's "skilful management of the pandemic", with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China's relative economic performance had improved.

 

China looked set for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30.

 

While the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that.

 

Japan would remain the world's third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.

 

The United Kingdom, currently the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR's measure, would slip to sixth place from 2024.

 

However, despite a hit in 2021 from its exit from the European Union's single market, British GDP in dollars was forecast to be 23% higher than France's by 2035, helped by Britain's lead in the increasingly important digital economy.

 

Europe accounted for 19% of output in the top 10 global economies in 2020 but that will fall to 12% by 2035, or lower if there is an acrimonious split between the EU and Britain, the CEBR said.

 

It also said the pandemic's impact on the global economy was likely to show up in higher inflation, not slower growth.

 

"We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in the mid-2020s," it said, posing a challenge for governments which have borrowed massively to fund their response to the COVID-19 crisis.

 

"But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s."

 

(Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Toby Chopra)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-27

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[PatOngo]

Spreading Covid 19 to the world has given them a good head start! So let's all just sit back and watch them take over! ????

[pegman]

No doubt the Chinese leadership handled the pandemic a lot better than Trump did. He has set the USA back at least a half decade or more. Although the billionaires did well under his leadership..

[Dumbastheycome]

Such opinion/prediction/forecast in terms of overall outcome is and has been consistent for at least the last decade.

Trump's original 2016 election campaign catch call was in recognition of the  evidence. Unfortunately his "rally around the flag" MAGA tactics have only accelerated the inevitable as it has further stressed and weakened  alliances across the  board. The US is not becoming less. It is just being overtaken due to the development of not only China.

If the dissemination of  democratic principles is deemed appropriate for peaceful world order and a shift in  economic strength occurs as a result then the US need recognize it's sense of responsibility in place of continued assumed superiority.

[Tug]

They certainly did much better with the pandemic and trump first dividing us from our allies then mishandling his trade war (financed by the American consumer) plus the epic mishandling of the pandemic has certainly given China a huge hand up imo

[Natai Beach]

On 12/27/2020 at 7:10 AM, PatOngo said:

Spreading Covid 19 to the world has given them a good head start! So let's all just sit back and watch them take over! ????

While covid did probably originate in China I think you will find the the USA and Europe have done, and are still doing most of the spreading.

By refusing to wear masks, holding mass rallies and protests during a pandemic, huge horse racing crowds,  anti vaxxer protests, anti lockdown protests and being dismissive of all medical advice and are now wondering where it all went wrong after it didn’t “magically” disappear last April.
 

China quickly realized the problem, acted responsibly and locked down strictly ignoring the criticisms from the “human righters” in the west at the time.

 

Who was that stable genius bloke who said “Trade wars are easy to win”? 

Good to see the Chinese lift millions out of poverty. 
 
 

Edited December 28, 2020 by onthedarkside
personal comment removed

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Natai Beach said:

While covid did probably originate in China I think you will find the the USA and Europe have done, and are still doing most of the spreading.

By refusing to wear masks, holding mass rallies and protests during a pandemic, huge horse racing crowds,  anti vaxxer protests, anti lockdown protests and being dismissive of all medical advice and are now wondering where it all went wrong after it didn’t “magically” disappear last April.
 

China quickly realized the problem, acted responsibly and locked down strictly ignoring the criticisms from the “human righters” in the west at the time.

 

@Fex Bluse will be devastated upon hearing this news. Only five years now Fex. 

 

Who was that stable genius bloke who said “Trade wars are easy to win”? 

Good to see the Chinese lift millions out of poverty.

Not masks, which by the way China secretly bought off the world market early on, thanks CCP for helping the world.

 

The difference between Asia and the West is the D614G mutation, widely studied by scientists (Except Chinese scientists whose papers are now censored by the CCP). Full science story: Sciencedirect:Cell

 

The first recorded 'G' mutation was a single example in Wuhan. Thanks CCP/WHO for not stopping those flights. D614G is now in Thailand so we may soon see the difference.  (graph from peer reviewed paper)

 

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by rabas

[spidermike007]

A few things to consider here. First of all Xi won Trump's insane trade war, hands down. Trump was knocked out cold, 2 minutes into the first round. He simply does not know how to negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And he was likely outclassed by 60 or 70 IQ points. Which is not hard. 1

 

Second, in general, Asia is on the ascent, while the West, and especially the US, is on the decline. For a few decades, but worse now, than before.

 

I look at the US, and I see the Western Roman empire circa mid 5th century, prior to Odoacer marching into Rome. 

 

Trump simply precipitated the inevitable decline. Whether or not the CCP remains in charge is irrelevant to China's growth and dominance. I don't like it. But, it is what it is. I predict in 50 years or so, the US will only be the 4th or 5th biggest world power. 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

A few things to consider here. First of all Xi won Trump's insane trade war, hands down. Trump was knocked out cold, 2 minutes into the first round. He simply does not know how to negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And he was likely outclassed by 60 or 70 IQ points. Which is not hard. 1

 

Second, in general, Asia is on the ascent, while the West, and especially the US, is on the decline. For a few decades, but worse now, than before.

 

I look at the US, and I see the Western Roman empire circa mid 5th century, prior to Odoacer marching into Rome. 

 

Trump simply precipitated the inevitable decline. Whether or not the CCP remains in charge is irrelevant to China's growth and dominance. I don't like it. But, it is what it is. I predict in 50 years or so, the US will only be the 4th or 5th biggest world power. 

Though I welcome criticism aimed at improving the US or anywhere, your Trump laser focus is blinding. Look at China's trade surplus and think, 1) Obama, 2)Trump, 3) corona virus.  Can you see the three trends?

 

https://www.cfr.org/blog/falling-trade-rising-imbalances

 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, rabas said:

Though I welcome criticism aimed at improving the US or anywhere, your Trump laser focus is blinding. Look at China's trade surplus and think, 1) Obama, 2)Trump, 3) corona virus.  Can you see the three trends?

 

https://www.cfr.org/blog/falling-trade-rising-imbalances

 

 

 

 

 

Well since by your reckoning population doesn't count, but only the nation/state, then the tiny nations of Andorra, Luxenbourg, Monaco, etc. are world leaders in fighting AGW.

[FritsSikkink]

4 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Spreading Covid 19 to the world has given them a good head start! So let's all just sit back and watch them take over! ????

Or start a real effort to get the virus under control.

[candide]

4 hours ago, rabas said:

Though I welcome criticism aimed at improving the US or anywhere, your Trump laser focus is blinding. Look at China's trade surplus and think, 1) Obama, 2)Trump, 3) corona virus.  Can you see the three trends?

 

https://www.cfr.org/blog/falling-trade-rising-imbalances

 

 

 

 

 

A trend which is not related to Trump as the US trade deficit with China has not decreased under Trump (incl. In 2019 before Covid)

Edited December 27, 2020 by candide

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Sending China back to the stone age would require a major nuclear war.

 

It might only require a couple more CoV-SARS-2 mutations. As the rest of the world approaches 100 million cases, the mutations start coming fast. Of course, we may all be in the stone age by then.

 

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

There is no easy solution.

Agree. But the world needs to find one.

Edited December 27, 2020 by rabas

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Spreading Covid 19 to the world has given them a good head start! So let's all just sit back and watch them take over! ????

The Americans did that in 1918 with the Spanish Flue, from Kentucky. Killed somewhere between 2.5 - 5 % of world population. 

[from the home of CC]

that's if the world makes it to 2028, personally I have my doubts..

[tgw]

11 hours ago, rooster59 said:

China to leapfrog U.S. as world's biggest economy by 2028: think tank

 

FILE PHOTO: People look at the skyline of the Central Business District in Beijing, China, April 16, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

 

LONDON (Reuters) - China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said.

 

"For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China," the Centre for Economics and Business Research said in an annual report published on Saturday.

 

"The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour."

 

The CEBR said China's "skilful management of the pandemic", with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China's relative economic performance had improved.

 

China looked set for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30.

 

While the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that.

 

Japan would remain the world's third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.

 

The United Kingdom, currently the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR's measure, would slip to sixth place from 2024.

 

However, despite a hit in 2021 from its exit from the European Union's single market, British GDP in dollars was forecast to be 23% higher than France's by 2035, helped by Britain's lead in the increasingly important digital economy.

 

Europe accounted for 19% of output in the top 10 global economies in 2020 but that will fall to 12% by 2035, or lower if there is an acrimonious split between the EU and Britain, the CEBR said.

 

It also said the pandemic's impact on the global economy was likely to show up in higher inflation, not slower growth.

 

"We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in the mid-2020s," it said, posing a challenge for governments which have borrowed massively to fund their response to the COVID-19 crisis.

 

"But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s."

 

(Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Toby Chopra)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-27

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

it has already happened.

 

Western GDP calculations are completely blown up because of overpriced services industry and social/labor costs.

 

When France decides that every car driver must have a yellow jacket in his car, it causes a bigger rise in GDP in France because the imported vests are sold with a significant sales margin as well as heavily taxes, but exported at a cheap price from Chin, so it is only of very little help to China's GDP.

 

But really, France's economy has been weakened in the process.

 

If you want to compare the power of economies, compare industrial production using an equal valuation for the output.

Edited December 27, 2020 by tgw

[Thingamabob]

The ruling regime in the PRC is a disgrace. Sadly it will go from strength to strength given the support of apologists in the West. This goes way back to the late 1940s when Washington amazingly switched support from Chiang Kai Shek to Mao Tse Tung.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, puipuitom said:

The Americans did that in 1918 with the Spanish Flue, from Kentucky. Killed somewhere between 2.5 - 5 % of world population. 

Ya think maybe the the world was a slightly different place then. Perhaps communications were slightly less sophisticated? There was no CDC. It wasn't even known what caused the Spanish Flu. 

[Scott]

Inflammatory post reported and removed.

 

[goldenbrwn1]

19 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

A few things to consider here. First of all Xi won Trump's insane trade war, hands down. Trump was knocked out cold, 2 minutes into the first round. He simply does not know how to negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And he was likely outclassed by 60 or 70 IQ points. Which is not hard. 1

 

Second, in general, Asia is on the ascent, while the West, and especially the US, is on the decline. For a few decades, but worse now, than before.

 

I look at the US, and I see the Western Roman empire circa mid 5th century, prior to Odoacer marching into Rome. 

 

Trump simply precipitated the inevitable decline. Whether or not the CCP remains in charge is irrelevant to China's growth and dominance. I don't like it. But, it is what it is. I predict in 50 years or so, the US will only be the 4th or 5th biggest world power. 

I fear war will come well before that can happen. Tbf it’s already started just without the boots on the ground. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by goldenbrwn1

[Ventenio]

A million Uyghurs locked up, possibly way more......and COVID 100% started in China.  This country has likely sent to death tens of tens of millions of people.....comparable to Russia, only.  This is a country that will arrest you for having bad friends on your social network, or buying alcohol.....your "social score" drops, and you cannot fly anywhere.  

 

and yet the TVF posters love China because it means they are against Westerners.

 

I do believe the average human to be of a very, very, very low IQ

 

However, 2021 will be the year of a few smart people asking questions.

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Ventenio said:

A million Uyghurs locked up, possibly way more......and COVID 100% started in China.  This country has likely sent to death tens of tens of millions of people.....comparable to Russia, only.  This is a country that will arrest you for having bad friends on your social network, or buying alcohol.....your "social score" drops, and you cannot fly anywhere.  

 

and yet the TVF posters love China because it means they are against Westerners.

 

I do believe the average human to be of a very, very, very low IQ

 

However, 2021 will be the year of a few smart people asking questions.

 

 

Questions such as why is the right wing so concerned about the human rights of Muslims in China but not so much in the rest of the world. Crocodile tears?

Edited December 28, 2020 by placeholder

[Stargeezr]

Per Capita,  China is a green a Country.  Per capita China has had far fewer covid cases.

 

  Per capita,  blah  blah  blah.   Meanwhile, here in Canada our leader wants to charge us all more money on carbon tax because Canada produces so much of the world pollution.   Well actually not at all, but per capita  I guess we do, since Canada has only a little more than 30 million population.   I hate per capita  studies, and graphs etc.  I also hate going more broke because of our stupid leader and his rich guy,  green idea.

Geezer

[pegman]

1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Per Capita,  China is a green a Country.  Per capita China has had far fewer covid cases.

  Per capita,  blah  blah  blah.   Meanwhile, here in Canada our leader wants to charge us all more money

on carbon tax because Canada produces so much of the world pollution.   Well actually not

at all, but per capita  I guess we do, since Canada has only a little more than 30 million

population.      I hate per capita  studies, and graphs etc.  I also hate going more broke

because of our stupid leader and his rich guy,  green idea.

Geezer

You sound like you have a distaste for facts. So a conservative I presume. Here are a couple just to mess with you. China  manufactures more electric vehicles than any other country on earth. Two American companies, GM and Tesla, are leading builders of EV in China. The 2  jurisdictions in Canada, B.C. & Quebec, that were first to bring in a carbon tax have also had the best economies. The province that refuses to diversify away from oil and gas production, The State of Alberta, has the worst. Shale fracking destroyed the tar sands. Live with it. 

 

P.S.: Trudeau's federal gov nationalized a pipeline so it can be expanded to export tar sands. Rene Kenny bought into a pipeline that is going to have it's expansion plans stopped by Biden.

Edited December 28, 2020 by pegman

[onthedarkside]

A series of posts that began with an unsourced post on pollution levels in China has been removed, along with some trolling posts including one with a trolling term for the coronavirus.

 

[rabas]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Questions such as why is the right wing so concerned about the human rights of Muslims in China but not so much in the rest of the world. Crocodile tears?

You are confusing people not wanting terrorists, of any race, blowing up world trade centers and valuing freedoms for people of all races.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by onthedarkside
personal comment removed

[Eric Loh]

China has been the biggest economy in the world long before US. Not surprised that it will happen again even without factoring in the pandemic. US economy has been on a steady decline with falling R&D especially in AI and robotics in contrast with China large investments on technology. India will catch up with US in 25-30 years.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, rabas said:

You are confusing people not wanting terrorists, of any race, blowing up world trade centers and valuing freedoms for people of all races.

 

In fact, the Uighurs have committed terrorist acts. It's only a tiny fraction of the population. Which is exactly the case with other Muslim terrorists as well. So why the discrepancy?

[connda]

So.  Decades ago the US moves most of it's manufacturing base to China so corporations can employ dirt cheap labor and then reap massive profits.

Of course, typical Westerners including corporate big-wigs and their political lackys who help them to facilitate trade deals that make the corporations obscenely wealthy in the short and medium term while destroying their domestic labor force all fail 100% to plan long term. 
So back in Kissingers day they celebrate all the cheap labor and believe that China will remain a subservient bunch of coolies doing the bidding of their corporate betters.

See what happens when you fail to study both history and culture?  The typical American politican can't plan beyond the next election campaign, or about two years.  The typical corporate CEO can't plan beyond their current plan to extract as much wealth out of the system they are harvesting, or about 5 to 10 years.  The Chinese leadership?  Remember, the party membership and those planning the industrial manufacturing base as well as all future logistics including trade and defense - are all thinking in terms of decades.

The American industrial and manufacturing base is destroyed.  The leadership who can give trillions to banks and their friends in foreign countries can not even repair the US infrastructure.  American politicians have destroyed small and medium businesses, put millions of Americans out of work - probably permanently - and do nothing but print money that is based on an asset base which is an illusion.

China?  They have the manufacturing base which American multi-nationals created for them.  They have infrastructure which is now spreading across Asian, Eurasia, Central Asia, the Middle East right to Europe and Africa.  They are cementing trade deals not based on military force but on mutual economic benefit between trading partners.

So yeah.  China will overtake an America which now only has a service industry doing such important jobs as serving up fast-food for take-out only (and those employees along with most other service oriented jobs will be replaced with robots and end up among the other millions of out of work), and America which has no manufacturing or industrial base, where schools consider teaching kids to put condones on cucumbers and liberal ideology becomes more important to teach then teaching Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics as well as technical skills needed to run and program the computerized industrial and manufacturing centers of the future.

China will not only leapfrog the United States as an economic giant by 2028, but by 2040 they'll be interconnected commerce between 65 or more nations over a huge geographical area throughout Asia and beyond

Of course, most Western media sources negatively opine that China's New Silk Road plans are doomed to failure. 

Ultimately only time with tell. But considering organizations like the World Economic Forum moving base to Singapore as well as foreign capital inflows that are moving out of the West and into Asia?  I'd say that a lot of very rich people are betting that Asia will become the New First World by 2050.  China is just a part of that equation.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by connda

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

I fear war will come well before that can happen. Tbf it’s already started just without the boots on the ground. 

China does not need to engage in war with the US. They are in a position to cripple the US both financially, and through cyber war.

 

Not to mention the possibility of malicious intent with a virus, (theoretical, of course) which has exposed the US as the totally undiscipled, unfocused and unruly society it is.