Baht could strengthen further depending on US Fed move

[webfact]

Baht could strengthen further depending on US Fed move

By THE NATION

 

 

The baht opened at 30 to the US dollar on Thursday, strengthening from 30.03 at close on Wednesday.

 

The Thai currency is likely to move between 29.95 and 30.10, said Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool.

 

Poon said financial markets are still in a risk-on state even after negative factors – the US political situation and the reduction of quantitative easing (QE) in the country – are starting to be resolved. The Nasdaq index rose by 0.4 per cent, while the Stoxx 50 rebounded by 0.1 per cent.

 

The market believes the US Federal Reserve will not reduce its QE, while a QE taper will not occur as in 2013, he said.

 

Also, some investors are actually concerned about stocks that keep rising and want to hold on to US government bonds.

The US Ten-Year Treasury yield decreased by around 4 basis points to 1.10 per cent.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened, with the index increasing by 0.3 per cent to 90.35 points.

 

Poon said markets are still monitoring Democrat attempts to remove Donald Trump from office.

 

The market strategist estimated that the dollar would weaken if the Fed signals that it will not relax its QE. Under this assumption, other currencies, including the baht, would strengthen against the dollar, he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30401223

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2021-01-14

 

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[spidermike007]

I expect the dollar to continue to decline. I would not be surprised to see 15-20 baht to the dollar, within five years time. Bottom line. The West, and especially America, is in a continual state of decline, and Asia continues to rise. I consider this a long term trend. 

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I expect the dollar to continue to decline. I would not be surprised to see 15-20 baht to the dollar, within five years time. Bottom line. The West, and especially America, is in a continual state of decline, and Asia continues to rise. I consider this a long term trend. 

Well, I wouldn't be surprised by 25 but 15 is really pushing it. 

[tonray]

20 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Well, I wouldn't be surprised by 25 but 15 is really pushing it. 

At 15 my 800K retirement account is going back to NYC.....and so am I

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, tonray said:

At 15 my 800K retirement account is going back to NYC.....and so am I

Good point. I could never afford NYC but at 15 the bang for the buck feature of retiring in Thailand goes out the window! Manhattan Kansas maybe?

[tonray]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Good point. I could never afford NYC but at 15 the bang for the buck feature of retiring in Thailand goes out the window! Manhattan Kansas maybe?

Yeah...more likely I'd only be able to afford Jersey...ha ha ha ha

[Poet]

Democrat control of the White House and the Legislative Branch is a dream for me financially because a portion of my portfolio is crypto and unrestricted money printing is terrific for that. 2020 has already been wonderful, I'm up about 700% since March. Amazing times.

The downside is that money I convert from dollars into other currencies will be worth a lot less. I am currently planning on the basis that it will be 20 baht to the dollar by the end of 2021 and, so, keeping almost no money in cash. I feel bad for the guys on fixed pensions whose idea of investing is based on how things were decades ago, but I suppose there are always winners and losers.

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Poet

[Henryford]

I think he means the dollar will weaken further.

[madmen]

This is a bonus for me and many others receiving passive income in baht while OS 

 

I imagine those without ties in LOS will continue the migration out of Asia, especially those in the 65 to 80 year old bracket. Whilst the baht is leading the charge the rest of SEA currencies are really not that far behind.eg  You won't get a 20% boost by moving to Vietnam 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by madmen

[Poet]

My hunch is that a massive new population of Westerners will drift into Thailand post-Covid, a younger pre-retirement generation who have grown disillusioned with well-paid but highly-pressured jobs in Silicon Valley and other tech hubs. The lockdown year of 2020 has convinced many people that they need a new direction in their lives.

For them, 20 baht to the dollar will seem normal, and they will replace the exiting retirees, English teachers, and forum moderators.

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Poet

[kevin612]

Thailand has no financial crisis since 1997. Maybe there is an invisible crisis coming soon, who knows.

[Venom]

3 hours ago, tonray said:

At 15 my 800K retirement account is going back to NYC.....and so am I

Blame the fed as the bank of Thailand can't print money fast enough to compete. It's a race to the bottom. 

[deej]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I expect the dollar to continue to decline. I would not be surprised to see 15-20 baht to the dollar, within five years time. Bottom line. The West, and especially America, is in a continual state of decline, and Asia continues to rise. I consider this a long term trend. 

La Land stuff????

[spidermike007]

2 minutes ago, deej said:

La Land stuff????

 

Yeah. That is what people said about Bitcoin, when some predicted it would rise to $5,000, and it was only $230 per coin, a short five or six years ago. And people said the same thing about interest rates, when they were at 6%, about it dropping to near negative territory. It takes a bit of vision to see seismic shifts that may happen down the road. I think there is no question the US is getting weaker by the year. Can the debt be sustained? Does anyone even know how much the real debt is?

 

The most striking fact about the cost of the war in Iraq has been the extent to which it has been kept "off the books" of the government's ledgers and hidden from the American people. This was done by design. A fundamental assumption of the Bush administration's approach to the war was that it was only politically sustainable if it was portrayed as near-costless to the American public and to key constituencies in Washington. What are the actual costs of the Afghan and Iraqi campaigns to date? Perhaps as much as $10 trillion. All "off the books". But, does that debt somehow get magically repaid? And now with the Covid bailouts. What is the current total debt? $35 trillion? $40 trillion? More?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/11/us-public-defrauded-hidden-cost-iraq-war

[skorp13]

If they strengthen the baht they will totally kill their economy. Their is already no foreign tourism to speak of and it will kill exports

[Isaan sailor]

Seems like more than a coincidence that the Baht and the Chinese Yuan move higher together—while the USD and commonly paired western currencies slide down.  

What kind of deal did they make?  Does Thailand really want to disassociate itself with the west?

[Isaan sailor]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Good point. I could never afford NYC but at 15 the bang for the buck feature of retiring in Thailand goes out the window! Manhattan Kansas maybe?

For me, I’d bail LoS for Maine—-sea & ski.

[spidermike007]

5 hours ago, tonray said:

At 15 my 800K retirement account is going back to NYC.....and so am I

 

70,000 to 90,000 baht a month, for a studio apartment now. A good friend has a tiny one bedroom (railroad unit, as it is about 9 feet wide, and about 45 feet long) and pays $2,400 (72.000 baht) a month, and it is the top floor of a five floor walk up, and she has a "special deal" with the landlord, who she has known a long time. One bedrooms are at $4,000 to $7,000, depending on the neighborhood. A spacious two or three bedroom with a modest view is $8,000 to $14,000 a month. My loft, that I used to have in the early 1990's, and I leased for $2,100 a month, is now $14,500 a month. 

 

Prices may have come down a little, due to Covid. But, the cost of living is stunning. Back in the 1980's when I was living there, my friends who made $100,000 a year had a very hard time saving anything. That was then. This is now. It has only gotten more expensive. NYC is a great city, but I would never in a million years consider starting over there, unless I already owned something, or was quite wealthy. 

 

 

[tomauasia]

12 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I expect the dollar to continue to decline. I would not be surprised to see 15-20 baht to the dollar, within five years time. Bottom line. The West, and especially America, is in a continual state of decline, and Asia continues to rise. I consider this a long term trend. 

I don't believe sorry. There manipulating the Baht. I'm not a expert in this area. But l know another that is. He says the Baht is false. It's there doing. It's not possible under so many variants. And l agree 

[Airalee]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

70,000 to 90,000 baht a month, for a studio apartment now. A good friend has a tiny one bedroom (railroad unit, as it is about 9 feet wide, and about 45 feet long) and pays $2,400 (72.000 baht) a month, and it is the top floor of a five floor walk up, and she has a "special deal" with the landlord, who she has known a long time. One bedrooms are at $4,000 to $7,000, depending on the neighborhood.

You’re way off on prices and looking in the wrong places.

 

https://www.apartmentfinder.com/New-York/New-York-Apartments/q/?sr=2

[Sammyinla]

14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I expect the dollar to continue to decline. I would not be surprised to see 15-20 baht to the dollar, within five years time. Bottom line. The West, and especially America, is in a continual state of decline, and Asia continues to rise. I consider this a long term trend. 

Going to 15 USD/THB in 5 years is a GIANT stretch without a major crisis. Even at 20, that is a pretty big swing for just 5 years. Currencies just don't fluctuate that much (as a percentage) unless there is a financial crisis (especially since the dollar is the reserve currency of the world). If your argument is that there will be a financial crisis in the US within the next 5 years, then that is a different discussion. There is a fairly strong floor just under the current 30 exchange rate (most currency experts forecast 29.50-30.50 for the end of 2021, even with the US piling on debt). The long-term trend does look like it is heading towards the 25 range, which was the floor for many years before Thailand had their financial crisis. You could make a decent argument for hitting 25 within the next 5 years...

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Sammyinla

[Henryford]

17 hours ago, skorp13 said:

If they strengthen the baht they will totally kill their economy. Their is already no foreign tourism to speak of and it will kill exports

 

Thailand is not strengthening the baht, it is the USA, and other western countries, who are weakening their currencies through massive money printing. Not much Thailand can do about that.

[frantick]

But, if part of the Baht's value is partly due to their $200 billion in reserves, doesn't that make them go down with the ship (USA)? Those are in dollars not ฿.

Edited January 15, 2021 by frantick

[Somchai Jackson]

Life is good when you've invested in the Thai Baht.  Not a bad return on investment.