SURVEY: 10 million tourists for 2021, doable or not?

[Scott]

The Thai government has bandied about various numbers for tourist arrivals.  The Tourism minister is predicting up to 10 million tourists in the 2nd half of the year.   Of the options, which one do you think is most accurate?

 

Feel free to leave a comment.

 

 

 

 

[rwill]

Class!  Class!!  Wake up!!!

[madmen]

Answer is pretty obvious to everyone by now 

[ThailandRyan]

Probably a better chance of Bitcoin going to 100k, and Ethereum to 25k than Thailand seeing 10 million visitors by the end of 2021.

[chilly07]

Immunisation  won't have  started by 2nd half of  this year so why would  anybody  come just to  spend 14days in quarantine? 

[RichardColeman]

I've voted nowhere near 10 million, BUT, I think 10 million 'IS' possible......

IF They abandon quarantine.

IF They say people can come back without Thailand vaccinating all their population.

IF The airlines start flying earlier

IF you do not have to apply for a visa in your own country

IF you do not need a doctors note and fit to fly

IF a simple vaccination document is usable 

IF The people outside Thailand have not used up all their savings.

If the infrastructure is still there.

IF......................

 

[Artisi]

Like the Thai lottery, pick your favourite number and go with it - but don't count on it till it's drawn 

 

[brianp0803]

I think it was a well thought out number.
It is small enough that they’re very gullible person might believe it’s possible. It’s large enough for the very optimistic owners of the few tourists related industries to keep open.

 

But unless there is a huge number of commercial flights between China and Thailand, and the government requires no quarantine, there’s not a shot in @&$& of them getting anywhere close to that number.
With the reports of the vaccination from China having marginal efficacy, it’s unlikely Thailand will bow to their master and allow huge volumes of Chinese tourist.

[ChrisKC]

Place me in the  :"don't know" column.

 

For all anybody knows, this thing could suddenly vanish or come up with third and fourth waves, variants and strains.

 

Either by bad judgement or any other reason, we know one thing: Just one infected person can be the catalyst for millions of new ones.

 

My intuition tells me there is little chance of meaningful tourism for the entire year.

 

Seems almost pointless making any predictions.

 

 

 

[shackleton]

Why do they bother coming out with meaningless numbers

No one knows until the Corivirus is under control ie vaccines 

And the Quarantine is lifted????

[Odysseus123]

I have hedged my bets...NO they won't make 10 million but they most certainly delight in making things up as they go along.

[Surelynot]

Depends who is counting them.....if it is TAT...then 10 million is very doable.

[Caldera]

Definitely not doable for as long as quarantine remains in place.

 

Only a tiny fraction of potential (mostly long-term) tourists is both willing and able to spend the first two weeks of their vacation in quarantine. No amount of putting lipstick on that pig will change that.

[anchadian]

Oi'll give it foive.

 

That's a single digit number five.

 

I'm pretty sure this number will be beaten (but not by much). 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by anchadian

[newnative]

    Not doable with the current government leaders in place.  They are all hopelessly in over their heads  and way too slow to act on anything.  When they do come up with something, it's way too complicated, involving way too many agencies (perhaps to spread the blame around), and way too unworkable, as a result.  Exhibit A: the SVT tourist visa.  Or was it STV?  Even the name was bad, along with everything else about it.   

[J Town]

Torn between 2 & 3. I think they make those numbers up AND I would bet my bottom dollar they won't see 10 million this year.

[tomazbodner]

Not going to happen in any case. And just quarantine that many are crying about here being removed would already ruin it.

 

There are 10+ cases in state/alternative state quarantine per day (let's put aside local cases). In gatherings, in general 1 person infected about 5 others. That would mean by letting foreigners into Thailand without quarantine would infect 50-60 Thais per day on a few hundred arrivals we see now. These would infect another 250-300 people. This means there would be nearly 1 infection per 1 person entering the country. With 10 million arrivals, that would therefore relate to about 10 million local infections just those directly involved with foreigner arriving and the circle that person infects. If we add tertiary infections we exceed Thai population, basically infecting everyone in country.

 

The moment foreign governments saw Thailand reporting as many cases per day as India, I am confident all flights to and from Thailand would be banned.

 

Therefore you could not even get to 1 million arrivals before Thailand's put on blacklist and tourism destroyed for foreseeable future.

[mfd101]

Given the speed, organisation and energy the government is devoting to vaccines, there's a reasonable chance they won't even pass the 1 million tourist mark before 2023!

 

I tend to make comparisons with Oz, a generally well-run country with well-functioning multi-cultural society. The federal health minister there announced a couple of weeks ago that, starting late Feb, ALL people in Oz will be vaccinated at taxpayers' expense. That includes ALL non-citizens, visitors, tourists, foreign students and illegal migrants.

 

Following the hallmark of good government, unknown in Thailand: KISS.

[Alidiver]

A week after predicting 10 million, they revised figures to 5 million. 

[Golden Triangle]

I have a reminder set on my phone to ask a particular member hear how the 10 million ( which he/her/it) stated on this very forum a couple of weeks ago as doable come the 4th quarter, he has been very quiet recently, and has not bothered to comment here, I'm disappointed to say the least, maybe he couldn't stand the ridicule he would probably receive for such a ludicrous projection. ????

[Elkski]

I think perhaps  10 million is closer to the number of Thai who may get the jab in 2021.  Maybe closer to the number of Thai who exit Thailand to go get a vaccine of high efficacy and quality. 

[Peterphuket]

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I've voted nowhere near 10 million, BUT, I think 10 million 'IS' possible......

IF They abandon quarantine.

IF They say people can come back without Thailand vaccinating all their population.

IF The airlines start flying earlier

IF you do not have to apply for a visa in your own country

IF you do not need a doctors note and fit to fly

IF a simple vaccination document is usable 

IF The people outside Thailand have not used up all their savings.

If the infrastructure is still there.

IF......................

 

IF you get 38 thb or more for a €

[Elkski]

Very few tourists will come to a country with zero vaccinations, or that requires quarantine.   

I believe 14 day quarantine is the correct thing but the government should have kept the feeling of  price gouging  lower.  

So many thai expats arriving and testing positive.  I don't believe they are being required to have a covid test prior to the flight home.  No way am I getting on a long flight now. 

The only people who will visit are people with loved ones,  profitable business dealings, or sex pats.  No normal tourists are going to plan to visit Thailand until they have 70% vaccination rate and can safely remove the quarantine. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Elkski

[Blumpie]

It depends how drunk you are when you count the numbers at the end of the day.

[sezze]

7 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I've voted nowhere near 10 million, BUT, I think 10 million 'IS' possible......

IF They abandon quarantine.

IF They say people can come back without Thailand vaccinating all their population.

IF The airlines start flying earlier

IF you do not have to apply for a visa in your own country

IF you do not need a doctors note and fit to fly

IF a simple vaccination document is usable 

IF The people outside Thailand have not used up all their savings.

If the infrastructure is still there.

IF......................

 

I'd say also that the numbers are possible . There's still a lot of roadblocks ahead , but if the vaccinations do their job , and hospital admissions are down a lot , then we would see a big return to the life we used to know . Planes will fly if there is a demand , rooms will be there if there is a demand . The government is a hard part , since they have got to lift a lot of regulations , in which Thailand have got a bad reputation .

[joecoolfrog]

Both 2 and 3 are accurate , no idea how anybody could have confidently agreed with the first option.

[RhodeIslandRed]

21 hours ago, Scott said:

The Thai government has bandied about various numbers for tourist arrivals.  The Tourism minister is predicting up to 10 million tourists in the 2nd half of the year.   Of the options, which one do you think is most accurate?

 

Feel free to leave a comment.

 

 

 

Open mouth ...insert foot....look at today's headlines in Bkk Post....no vaccines until maybe June?

That doesn't tell you too much does it? No tourist will quarantine for 14 days while on holiday...these people just don't have a clue.

[Timwin]

A lot of working class people in the West are in dire straits and the economic effects will be felt for years to come. Mass tourism will recover very slowly. 

[Rodbayne94]

International tourists, will already arrive vaccinated, and at this moment already hears high in the numbers of tourists and arrivals in Thailand, most likely that in 2022 the numbers of 2019 tourists will grow well 40 million

[NoshowJones]

12 hours ago, sezze said:

I'd say also that the numbers are possible . There's still a lot of roadblocks ahead , but if the vaccinations do their job , and hospital admissions are down a lot , then we would see a big return to the life we used to know . Planes will fly if there is a demand , rooms will be there if there is a demand . The government is a hard part , since they have got to lift a lot of regulations , in which Thailand have got a bad reputation .

It is not Thailand itself that has the bad reputation, it is the unelected "PM" making promises, sitting round tables with his crew and making up stupid regulations that only the members of the "scared of your own shadow" brigade will obey.