Thailand reports 1,767 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

[BookShe]

15 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Initial viral load seem to play a factor in who live and who dies.

Doctors and health care workers who might breath a high virus load deep in their lungs might die, while an elderly person who slowly get infected from his/her spouse might live.

 

Yes indeed. It is one detail that we think is a big factor. How big? We don't know. That's why I answered an other poster : If you take every detail we know equally, then yes, we know a lot. If you weigh these details by importance then statistically we know "nothing". (I mean too little to treat patients differently) 

[rumak]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

2 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

About a 13% rise in cases from yesterday. 

Yeah that's nearly exponential.

 

reading the names on the "likes, laughs, thanks"  .................   my estimate is 50/50  as to who thinks your comment is serious and who sees the humor .

about par for the course with the avid covid group

[rumak]

Just now, Saltire said:

if they do 60 a day each.

 

sixty a day each !!!    i would say you are being a little harsh with the community service program

[ourmanflint]

25 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Initial viral load seem to play a factor in who live and who dies.

Doctors and health care workers who might breath a high virus load deep in their lungs might die, while an elderly person who slowly get infected from his/her spouse might live.

 

And that is why these newer mutations are said to be more infectious, they massively increase the viral load being coughed or breathed out each time, therefore leading to more infections

[BookShe]

19 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Read an article that pinned a lot on interferon......this is produced by your body (as I understand it) to kick start the body's immune system into action........too little and it's too late....the virus gets a good run at you......too much and your own immune system goes crazy and attacks 'you'.......as might be able to tell...not an expert.

Yes. It's called a Cytokine storm. There are lot of unknown details related to this virus. As of today there's not a sure definition of who will get sick and how serious it will be. Sure there are risk factors as pointed out by many. 

"If you take every detail we know equally, then yes, we know a lot about this virus. If you weigh these details by importance then statistically we know nothing."

[Amplish]

1 hour ago, overherebc said:

Local being person to person, at work,home whatever.

From quarantine being people who have entefed Thailand from wherever and have been quarantined and tested there..

I don't think that is correct. I agree it would make sense, but the numbers reported are broken down as domestic cases (1477), pro-active case finding (288) and imported cases (2). In the OP the 288 cases are referred to as: "were imported from people entering quarantine". So except for the 2 imported cases, the rest are all locally transmitted, domestic cases.

[Marvin Hagler]

32 minutes ago, cocoonclub said:

If you’re basing your investment decisions upon analysts who write two lines of wild speculation without any data and analysis backing it up I am not surprised why you’re doing the same here. 

 

That’s just another rather wild hypothesis for which you don’t provide any evidence. Since knowledge and experience isn’t evenly distributed, there’s not “every chance I am right and the next man is wrong”. There’s a higher chance that the man with two lines of obscure speculation and no evidence is wrong. 

There you go again asking for evidence when in fact someone is speculating or hypothesising. If someone has evidence then it is fact not speculation.

Did you mean to say information? I am speculating that you did although of course I have no evidence to prove it.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

There's a lot of PR spin going on with the government's efforts to ramp up its hospital bed capacity by adding quickly assembled makeshift field hospital facilities.

 

This below was a post today by the MoPH regarding an expansion of facilities at its Bamrasnaradura Institute in Bangkok for treating infectious diseases such as COVID:

Department of Disease Control prepares for Field Hospital at Bamrasnaradura Institute

Link:

 

 

 

Vs. this was a report that appeared on the Chiang Mai City Life website several days ago regarding a new COVID field hospital there:

 

Photos from inside the women’s quarantine at the field hospital

 

https://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/citynews/covid-19/photos-from-inside-the-womens-quarantine-at-the-field-hospital/

 

 

"Photos from inside the government quarantine are showing a shambolic response to this order which will see anyone with the virus avoiding the government quarantine facing up to two years in jail.

 

In spite of being unprepared, it is reported that over 600 people are now housed in the government’s quarantine at the Chiang Mai Convention Centre."

 

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, mehrdad said:

Songkran long holidays consequences is coming ! 

As elsewhere. They reduced the restrictions in UK over the Christmas holidays and infections hit 60K a day.

When governments are between a rock and a hard place, the narrow minded will always see it as the wrong decision.

[GroveHillWanderer]

2 hours ago, BookShe said:

Why does it kill a relatively healthy young person in just 2 days, and on the other hand, relatively sick and unhealthy people don't even recognize they caught the virus. 

There have indeed been occasional cases of younger, apparently healthy people dying and of some older, apparently unhealthy people having only mild cases but those are the exceptions to the rule.

 

However the data still clearly show that this disease kills predominantly older people with underlying health conditions.

 

For instance, figures from the UK are typical of the worldwide trends and show that people with underlying conditions have a more than 10 times higher risk of dying than those without.

 

COVID-19 deaths broken down by underlying health condition

 

From this article, here are some figures for Covid deaths as of November 20, 2020.

 

Quote

With pre-existing condition: England and Wales - 45,859

 

No pre-existing condition: England and Wales - 4476

 

Any set of figures you care to look at for Covid deaths by age will also show a vast predominance in deaths among the older age groups.

[Boedog]

Still no lockdown, l wonder what the daily number is they are waiting for R.I.P Thailand, and so many people were saying what a wonderful job Thailand had done with Covid it was only luck like everything its about saving face by those in charge, now when they should have taken drastic measures to try and control NOTHING 

[BookShe]

44 minutes ago, PGSan said:

Err, statistically speaking this is very confusing!  How do 

count details?

Just an example:

X+Y+Z = 10

X= Viral load =?

Y= Diabetes =?

Z= Obesity =?

(There are many more factors at play, I just listed some common ones)

 

So does X = 6? We don't know. It might be only 3. Eventually, you will get the answer 10 by giving any value to these symptoms. Solving this equation the right way is the answer to covid treatment. (the vaccine is not a treatment. It's a prevention)

 

[KhaoNiaw]

This guy is doing some good work with the numbers:

 

[onthedarkside]

A misinformation post and a reply have been removed.

[cocoonclub]

13 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

There you go again asking for evidence when in fact someone is speculating or hypothesising. If someone has evidence then it is fact not speculation.

Did you mean to say information? I am speculating that you did although of course I have no evidence to prove it.

Whatever term you prefer to use, the point was that you (and apparently the wealth manager or analysts you trust) don’t provide anything to support those wild speculations. 

[tandor]

...got to get those vaccines out there quick smart.

[ChipButty]

34 minutes ago, Saltire said:

Personally I have had enough of Thai statistics.

 

It's my view now they are all just manufactured, but not just to lie or hide the real picture, I believe they just dont know how to gather and collect accurate data, and I dont just mean Covid, but can never admit it.

 

I dont believe the road death stats, the tourist forecasts (and historic numbers of visitors), the number of unemployed, the one million bar girls doing nothing now and any other number they come up with. They do not have the capability or expertise to accurately collect and report on such a large scale, and they are not alone.

 

If there is a million bar girls looking for work train them in the use of a syringe and the vaccinations will take a week if they do 60 a day each. Sorted! ????

 

.

 

 

 

 

They will be saying dont worry it's just a little <deleted>

[ThailandRyan]

North West and Mid west.  All vaccinated with either Moderna or Pfizer.  Mother has covid, she is 83, was on a ventilator, now off and recovering nicely and she is a COPD CHP patient.  So the vaccine she had a few months ago, Moderna, obviously worked to lessen the severity.  She was moved from the ICU to a Covid ward, possibly to go back to her own home by the end of the week once she gets her strength back.  She was one of the 5 calls I had earlier.  So nice to hear her squeaky raspy voice.

[welshguy]

I guess, before Covid hardly any of the people on here, ever used the word "Exponential "?  

 

I have certainly never used it before.

 

You can argue all you like, about Exponential /linear lines blah blah blah.

 

Whatever....you can argue until the cows come home!  One thing you cant argue about (well more than one!) The numbers ARE RISING,  the government are next to useless, there is a pitiful minute number of covid vaccinations to go around a country of what 60 odd million?

 

So yes, of course its not good news. Hopefully it will get better.....soon.

 

I'm no conspiracy theorist, Covid is real. (Ive had it, 2 guys I used to work with have died with it).

 

Thailand has been (it seems) very lucky, in the low (reported ) number of deaths with covid, and with the low (compared to the west that is) numbers theyve had in the past.

 

I'm in Farangland, the people I talk to in Thailand, are starting to get more and more worried now,

I sure hope it doesn't get much worse, and by some divine miracle, the government will actually, pull its finger out, and start looking after its people,

[ChipButty]

22 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There's a lot of PR spin going on with the government's efforts to ramp up its hospital bed capacity by adding quickly assembled makeshift field hospital facilities.

 

This below was a post today by the MoPH regarding an expansion of facilities at its Bamrasnaradura Institute in Bangkok for treating infectious diseases such as COVID:

Department of Disease Control prepares for Field Hospital at Bamrasnaradura Institute

Link:

 

 

 

Vs. this was a report that appeared on the Chiang Mai City Life website several days ago regarding a new COVID field hospital there:

 

Photos from inside the women’s quarantine at the field hospital

 

https://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/citynews/covid-19/photos-from-inside-the-womens-quarantine-at-the-field-hospital/

 

 

"Photos from inside the government quarantine are showing a shambolic response to this order which will see anyone with the virus avoiding the government quarantine facing up to two years in jail.

 

In spite of being unprepared, it is reported that over 600 people are now housed in the government’s quarantine at the Chiang Mai Convention Centre."

 

Looks like a refugee camp

[FitnessHealthTravel]

3 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Brutal.

Blah!

[FitnessHealthTravel]

Treat the sick! Leave the rest to do what we do best...

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

Exponential.  

 

But, exponential is not about how bad, it's only about the shape of the curve, does it bend upwards? There is strong and weak exponential.

 

Ballistic is bad. 

The infected numbers are only related to how many are tested... 

If only a percentage are getting tested then only a percentage will be reported as being infected... thus the true figure could be a lot more.

[BookShe]

16 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

There have indeed been occasional cases of younger, apparently healthy people dying and of some older, apparently unhealthy people having only mild cases but those are the exceptions to the rule.

 

However the data still clearly show that this disease kills predominantly older people with underlying health conditions.

 

For instance, figures from the UK are typical of the worldwide trends and show that people with underlying conditions have a more than 10 times higher risk of dying than those without.

 

COVID-19 deaths broken down by underlying health condition

 

From this article, here are some figures for Covid deaths as of November 20, 2020.

 

 

Any set of figures you care to look at for Covid deaths by age will also show a vast predominance in deaths among the older age groups.

Thank you for your post. You are right. I can't argue with these facts and I won't. 

What I was trying to pointing out is the secret (Not conteo secret) behind this virus. It is true that mostly elderly people are dying, with pre-existing conditions. Sure their immune system is weak, but so does the immune system of infants, and yet we don't have (thank God) a lot of babies in serious conditions. Why is that? 

My original post was this:

These pre-existing conditions are giving us a false narrative. Most listed pre-existing conditions are not life-threatening. People can live a full lifespan with diabetes if it's checked. Same for high blood pressure. Both can be kept in order with medicines. Obesities. C'mon. Half the country is obese. There's a lot we already know about this virus. Except for one thing. Why does it kill a relatively healthy young person in just 2 days, and on the other hand, relatively sick and unhealthy people don't even recognize they caught the virus. 

Many people just quoting the last sentence, which is therefore out of context.

[Nojohndoe]

3 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

The number of cases they report will be directly related with the number of people they test. There is factual evidence (discussed ad infinitum already) that they test at very low rates in comparison to other countries. There has also been much commentary in the local media about problems with testing (either the cost, lack of tests, reluctance to test by hospitals).

 

So although the figure of 1,500 being the ceiling is wrong the evidence thus far suggests reported numbers will plateau...unless they significantly IO there game.

 

The other scenario is if test numbers stay the same but infection rates are soaring which will also show a higher number of daily cases.

IMHO "the other scenario" just may be the expectation conceded to but unsaid by those  "in control" !

Official expressions of sympathy in advance of most probable outcome post Songkran will be unlikely to be reciprocated by the general public.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, welshguy said:

I guess, before Covid hardly any of the people on here, ever used the word "Exponential "?  

 

I have certainly never used it before.

 

You can argue all you like, about Exponential /linear lines blah blah blah.

 

Whatever....you can argue until the cows come home!  One thing you cant argue about (well more than one!) The numbers ARE RISING,  the government are next to useless, there is a pitiful minute number of covid vaccinations to go around a country of what 60 odd million?

 

So yes, of course its not good news. Hopefully it will get better.....soon.

 

I'm no conspiracy theorist, Covid is real. (Ive had it, 2 guys I used to work with have died with it).

 

Thailand has been (it seems) very lucky, in the low (reported ) number of deaths with covid, and with the low (compared to the west that is) numbers theyve had in the past.

 

I'm in Farangland, the people I talk to in Thailand, are starting to get more and more worried now,

I sure hope it doesn't get much worse, and by some divine miracle, the government will actually, pull its finger out, and start looking after its people,

Looks like the Genie is out of the bottle and the folks who were believing the government or ignoring them are now sitting and standing up going WTH is happening.  That is what is called complacency, as many either ignored it as they were outside of the bigger cities, or truly believed Anutin and this Government.  Crazy how all of a sudden the Government is scrambling to buy vaccines, as well as find rooms for all the infected.  Is this Som Nam Na to General Uncle Tu, and Hemp boy Anutin, maybe a direct reflection of the attitudes they had prior to Songkran with their comments that is was under control and what will happen will happen.  Tools.

[secosteve]

3 hours ago, madmen said:

Can't see farang getting the jab before end of year while these numbers continue to soar! 

Don't be too sure, the private hospitals have the go ahead to purchase the vaccine, the price will be interesting and, will there be a two their cost!!!!.

[ChomDo]

3 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

and this is only the beginning....numbers will go up

Wonder what the actual numbers could be since testing is kind of non existent compared to many other countries and also most infected people are probably asymptomatic and unaware anyway. With these higher numbers the system of taking everyone to the hospital might be out of question soon. Seems weird to be filling the beds with people who are not having much symptoms and would do fine resting at home.

[edwardandtubs]

5 minutes ago, secosteve said:

Don't be too sure, the private hospitals have the go ahead to purchase the vaccine, the price will be interesting and, will there be a two their cost!!!!.

It's not going to happen. Vaccine manufacturers are committed to government contracts or the Covax scheme for a long time so will be unavailable on the private market.

[ikke1959]

52 minutes ago, Amplish said:

I don't think that is correct. I agree it would make sense, but the numbers reported are broken down as domestic cases (1477), pro-active case finding (288) and imported cases (2). In the OP the 288 cases are referred to as: "were imported from people entering quarantine". So except for the 2 imported cases, the rest are all locally transmitted, domestic cases.

It looks like they want to show the Thai people that the foreigners or aliens are to blame for high numbers..