On 4/24/2021 at 12:23 AM, jacko45k said:

Well thanks, but didn't one of them also go with the A380 and the other the 737-Max! Hard thing to predict, but they do need to plan....  if nothing upsets the UK progress along with other countries in advanced vaccination stages I hope we do better. 

Aircraft models have absolutely nothing to with the amount of passengers traveling.

 

What I was saying was if Thailand is expecting millions of travelers this year, it is not happening.

 

And if that is not happening, what  exactly will happen to the economy after at least another year of no tourists and maybe longer?

 

3 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

And if that is not happening, what  exactly will happen to the economy after at least another year of no tourists and maybe longer?

 

It will be down.... obviously. But it is going to be the same the world over. Everyone on here has this image of Thailand being largely dependent on tourism, and ignore the sizeable manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors, and healthy FCD.

14 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

What I was saying was if Thailand is expecting millions of travelers this year, it is not happening.

 

And if that is not happening, what  exactly will happen to the economy after at least another year of no tourists and maybe longer?

 

Probably not good.

On 4/26/2021 at 6:54 AM, jacko45k said:

It will be down.... obviously. But it is going to be the same the world over. Everyone on here has this image of Thailand being largely dependent on tourism, and ignore the sizeable manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors, and healthy FCD.

I think that the difference in Thailand is that most of the economic activities you describe are geographically concentrated, and really only benefit the communities in those areas. Even agriculture, if you take away the rice bowls of the central plain and the vast southern rubber plantations, is largely based on subsistence and growing produce for first hand sale in local markets.

 

That means that Thailand has a disproportionately large labour force that is dependent on low skilled cash paid work to support themselves, either as self employed or casual labour. They in turn often support large extended families " back on the farm". That sector has suffered hugely from the virtual total demise of the tourist industry, on which it was heavily dependent. As we have read on this thread, chances of it reviving long to mid term are slim.

 

So although the sectors you mention may be depressed, jobs, income and prospects for recovery for many outside those sectors have gone.

On 4/24/2021 at 12:57 PM, Johnny Mac said:

 

Let's get one thing straight here, the UK as a country for scenery, landscape, countryside, villages, pubs, restaurants, etc absolutely knocks spots off of Thailand, no comparison whatsoever. The downside of course that there is no cheap beer or brasses widely available, and you generally have to 'behave' yourself at the risk of offending one and all, and of course you could get knifed to death on the way back from a very nice country boozer ???? 

Totally agree. Although you missed culturally significant buildings.  

 

Sorry ignore that, I missed your mention of 'pubs' in your post.

1 hour ago, DaLa said:

Totally agree. Although you missed culturally significant buildings.  

 

Sorry ignore that, I missed your mention of 'pubs' in your post.

 

Lol..absolutely! And yes you are right of course about buildings. 

 

Still, as I said,  despite all the great things about the UK many things are expensive, you can't say anything to anyone anymore, rules and regs everywhere, the chavs have taken over the streets, most women hate men, and most of the time it's dark, wet and <deleted> freezing cold.

 

Another plus is the infrastructure in place, and the sense of humour, boy I do miss that! A good laugh makes a world of difference to your day, I find that hard to find here and it's actually a pretty tragic way to live ones life.

On 4/26/2021 at 6:54 AM, jacko45k said:

It will be down.... obviously. But it is going to be the same the world over.

 

Sure, but how many counties the world over depend on tourism for 17% of their GDP, other than some small island nations?  

4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

Sure, but how many counties the world over depend on tourism for 17% of their GDP, other than some small island nations?  

What am I? Google?

7 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

What am I? Google?

 

No, you're not, but Thailand is unique in this way.  I am not ignoring the sectors you mentioned in your post, but tourism equalling 17% of GDP, with at best a 2 year absence, leaves a big hole in the books.  

11 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

No, you're not, but Thailand is unique in this way.  I am not ignoring the sectors you mentioned in your post, but tourism equalling 17% of GDP, with at best a 2 year absence, leaves a big hole in the books.  

Thailand has very large foreign currency reserves.....

6 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Thailand has very large foreign currency reserves.....

 

They'll need it.  

10 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

They'll need it.  

Well an economist could explain it to me... but I don't think Thailand got it so bad. Loss of tourism is money they didn't make, not money they spent. They don't have the massive debt to service that the UK has, nor that massive expenditure and borrowing because of Covid measures the UK made..... 

Want to see problems.. I think the UK and Western economies need to be viewed. 

3 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Well an economist could explain it to me... but I don't think Thailand got it so bad. Loss of tourism is money they didn't make, not money they spent. They don't have the massive debt to service that the UK has, nor that massive expenditure and borrowing because of Covid measures the UK made..... 

Want to see problems.. I think the UK and Western economies need to be viewed. 

 

Have you considered Thailand's record household debt?

 

How exposed are Thai banks????