Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026

[simple1]

4 hours ago, starky said:

Hope I'm wrong but Australia is likely to come out of this year's behind the rest of the world. Haven't even experienced a first wave yet. Now we are fairly certain that vaccines aren't the be all and end all, the zero covid strategy and perpetual rolling lockdowns for a handful of cases is more detrimental than anything.

 

Australia experienced second wave commencing 06/20 in Victoria. Fed medical advice confirms Covid vaccination way to go. So far one out of 3.1 million vaccinated has been identified as dying from reaction to Astra Zeneca side effect. However, unfortunately many Australians subscribe to FUD, so ongoing delays

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232843v1#:~:text=Australia experienced a second wave,reduce rapidly increasing case numbers.&text=Results Modelling earlier activation of,numbers by more than 50%.

 

Also much BS in Thai social media creating same issues re reluctance to vaccinate.

Edited May 25, 2021 by simple1

[racket]

Recover? In fact they have systematically destroyed it for the past 10 year if not more. 

[DerbyDan]

how many people on here are tourists?

 

for expats it does not matter much, as long as they don't get price gouged for being sitting ducks.

[WineOh]

30 minutes ago, chrisbangkok said:

Thank you Nostradamus 

No worries, chrisbangkok.

[bert bloggs]

Even if people could afford to travel here,there would be very little for them,so many places have closed down and will not be able to open ,the staff for one thing have left ,maybe not to return for years,a friend of my wifes rents out a cheap condo to a Thai couple,they have lived there for years ,they could not afford the rent,so she said they could stay free and just look after the place,they couldnt even afford to stay under those circumstances,they have no money at all and have left to stay in their village with familly.

Its going to get worse 

Edited May 25, 2021 by bert bloggs

[digger70]

Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026  

 

Thailand doesn't know , the way they do things here the tourism sector may Never recover.

 

[David Garden]

difficult to predict an end to this uggly situation....

however giving dates for recovery is very pretentious....

more cautiously let see what will happen in the next following months before saying again stupid things

[Seeall]

7 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

There is definitely pent up demand out there.  First thing most people say in recovering countries when things get better is they want to travel.  But, sure getting back to 40 million here could take 10 years.

One problem they may run into is when people do start coming back is a big raise in prices.  Airfare, hotels, food, entertainment raising prices to make up for the current deficit.  Could push some away from here with the reputation of this place being a cheap travel destination.

Normal th bg way of thinking yes agree

[BernieOnTour]

The unemployment rate of 1.96% in the Bloomberg report is ridiculous...

 

Sounds more like a journalist working without any insight on Thailand, just based on other articles in the press and official, international statistics.

 

He is leaving the „gray sector“ totally out of sight.

[Harveyboy]

7 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

There is definitely pent up demand out there.  First thing most people say in recovering countries when things get better is they want to travel.  But, sure getting back to 40 million here could take 10 years.

One problem they may run into is when people do start coming back is a big raise in prices.  Airfare, hotels, food, entertainment raising prices to make up for the current deficit.  Could push some away from here with the reputation of this place being a cheap travel destination.

yes true i would not class thailand as cheap anymore those days have long gone .there are many countries in Europe i can go far less expensive than here ...but the climate is another thing possible the only thing it has to offer  i still love it here but the wallet takes a bashing more than a couple of years ago

[Seeall]

Just now, BernieOnTour said:

The unemployment rate of 1.96% in the Bloomberg report is ridiculous...

 

Sounds more like a journalist working without any insight on Thailand, just based on other articles in the press and official, international statistics.

 

He is leaving the „gray sector“ totally out of sight.

Them, polis, all blah blah, nobosy knows jack <deleted> untill vachines are proven to work against all possible strains.. just blah blah , could go good or bad...

[Excel]

1 hour ago, tlandtday said:

Of course they did but now it is time for them to settle in Thailand and other parts of se asia.  Expect millions of relocated Chinese to descend upon Thailand in the near future once ownership laws are amended to make it easier for them.

They settled in Thailand centuries ago. Just a few more of them now to come. Will ownership laws be amended ? If so will they be amended for only the Chinese ? Doubt it

[Poet]

8 minutes ago, Excel said:

They settled in Thailand centuries ago. Just a few more of them now to come. Will ownership laws be amended ? If so will they be amended for only the Chinese ? Doubt it

The ones writing the laws, and the ones who own the country, are the Chinese who arrived here a century ago. So, yes, the new Chinese are already getting special treatment.

[Excel]

3 minutes ago, Poet said:

The ones writing the laws, and the ones who own the country, are the Chinese who arrived here a century ago. So, yes, the new Chinese are already getting special treatment.

3 - 4  Centuries  ago actually if we are talking about those that "own" the country.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, thaipara said:

Not what I experienced just now reserving a hotel at the Houston airport for two nights at the end of June. Total cost for the two nights is _less_ than what I paid for one night at a lesser hotel there in June two years ago. I have been checking the prices there for a couple of months; not much change. The prices are the lowest I've ever seen there ever before (been using IAH for transpacific flights for several years already).

Inner cities are the places to go right now.  Everyone there wants to escape!

 

Try booking an AirBnB a few hours outside NYC.  Or along the coast of California.  Sold out, or ridiculous prices.

 

Try booking a car in Hawaii!  Insane.

[HAPPYNUFF]

I see a wonderful business opportunity here for forged  vaccination certificates.  Perhaps  our  neighbours from a certain country to the north, renowned for their artistic skills,  are already  at it, I mean   they already own most of Thailand and they surely  want/need to come  visit and inspect their investments.

[spidermike007]

My guess is there are many within this insipid administration, that are fuming at the National Economic and Social Development Council for speaking truth. This is an extremely rare occurrence, when it comes to tourism projections here. 

 

Just got back from Samui. Was discussing this with friends who live there. Alot of debate. My thought is, what would the tourists be returning to? In Lamai and Chaweng especially, 90% of all restaurants have closed permanently. 100% of massage shops and bars are closed. When they are "allowed" to re-open, how many will be able to afford to, and what are they opening to? Who is coming? Will the tourists come to a devastated "island resort" anyway? Will the businesses who have stayed open for an extended period without many tourists want to re-open? Many lost a fortune paying rent and expenses, when only a few domestic tourists trickled in. Now, with the massive failure of the health officials here, things are only getting worse for tourism. They have received zero in the way of assistance from the goons. Nothing.

 

Total, and shameful abandonment, in their time of need. What can one say? If they were being graded on this, Prayuth, Anutin and Phiphat would all get an F, or a 0.1, if that is even possible. 

 

 

 

[DerbyDan]

9 minutes ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

I see a wonderful business opportunity here for forged  vaccination certificates.  Perhaps  our  neighbours from a certain country to the north, renowned for their artistic skills,  are already  at it, I mean   they already own most of Thailand and they surely  want/need to come  visit and inspect their investments.

im gonna creme on you buddy

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, BumGun said:

 

 

 

The only disease ever eradicated by vaccination is Small Pox and that took 200 years. 

While your statement is technically correct, there are plenty of diseases that have been virtually eliminated from populations that had a high vaccination uptake rate. Polio, typhoid, tuberculosis and tetanus to name just a few. It's when governments become complacent and cut funding that new cases start popping up. Or are so dysfunctional they can't organize vaccination programs anyway.

 

I can see domestic tourism might flourish. However, I can't see international tourism ever recovering, for the following reasons:

1/ Cost of flying, budget fares are dead.

2/ Competition, airlines have gone bankrupt.

3/ Regulation, mandatory quarantine etc.

 

I mean, if premiers in Australia can impose hard borders at the drop of a hat when another state has a COVID cluster, what chance does international travel have?

 

[Poet]

59 minutes ago, Excel said:

3 - 4  Centuries  ago actually if we are talking about those that "own" the country.

While various waves of migration from China to Thailand stretch back thousands of years (including the major group now considered to be Thai), the group considered to be Sino-Thai today go back only about 200 years, with the vast majority arriving about a century ago, including the families who are now richest.

For example, the Chearavanont family who own the Charoen Pokphand Group arrived in the 1920's. They are now the 4th wealthiest family in Asia and have unparalleled power within Thailand.

One notable arrival in the previous century, the 1860's, was Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra's great-grandfather, but if you run down the list of the 31 Thai dollar billionaires in 2021, with the exception of Thaksin (17th richest) and the German-Thai Harald Link (9th richest) and American-Thai William Heinecke (19th richest), ALL 28 are from Sino-Thai families that arrived early in the 20th century. It is an extraordinary dominance. They truly do own this country.

The folks who arrived 3-4 centuries ago are far more blended in. You are talking about the ancestors of over 40% of today's population, including the royal family. Those families would not be consider Chinese Thai unless they also had ancestors in the later, 1-2 centuries ago wave. The absolute peak of Chinese migration was in the 1920's, dwarfing previous waves.

The 1-2 centuries ago wave actually had to deal with significant amounts of racism from some descendents of 3-4 centuries ago wave during the early 20th century, mirroring the explosion of anti-semitism in Europe and the US at the same time. That distinction between the earlier and later groups endures to this day.

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Poet

[Andycoops]

7 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

Curious how TAT is going to spin this into good news.

Surely it will be just a misunderstanding.

[Brigante7]

Until Thai logic kicks in and prices are doubled, if not trebled, overnight to make up for the money they've missed out.

 

 

 

Brigante7.

[Poet]

46 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

If they were being graded on this, Prayuth, Anutin and Phiphat would all get an F, or a 0.1, if that is even possible. 

They aren't working for the people.

 

50 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

what would the tourists be returning to? In Lamai and Chaweng especially, 90% of all restaurants have closed permanently. 100% of massage shops and bars are closed. When they are "allowed" to re-open, how many will be able to afford to, and what are they opening to? Who is coming? Will the tourists come to a devastated "island resort" anyway? Will the businesses who have stayed open for an extended period without many tourists want to re-open? Many lost a fortune paying rent and expenses, when only a few domestic tourists trickled in.

Individual businesses may re-open with different owners but none of them are complicated. The masseurs, the cooks, the bar girls, the retail staff, they haven't been executed, they still exist, and will all come flowing back as soon as businesses start re-opening.

They will start re-opening the day it becomes apparent that mass tourism is rumbling back to life. That will be the day that they announce that the holders of vaccine passports can forego testing, paperwork, quarantine, and special insurance. When that happens, every flight scheduled for Thailand will sell every seat and the airlines will rush to resurrect their canceled routes.

This is, in fact, a massive opportunity for the people who Prayuth & Co. do work for, the elites. They own most of the buildings and will be among the few to still have operating cash.
 

[kwilco]

there is still a general misconception that Covid will be "over". ...It's never going to be over, it will have to be managed and lived with. Thailand like the rest of the world is going to need long term plans to allow tourists to return in their millions. As yet I don't see any plans for the future being set in place.

[kwilco]

1 minute ago, Poet said:

They aren't working for the people.

 

Individual businesses may re-open with different owners but none of them are complicated. The masseurs, the cooks, the bar girls, the retail staff, they haven't been executed, they still exist, and will all come flowing back as soon as businesses start re-opening.

They will start re-opening the day it becomes apparent that mass tourism is rumbling back to life. That will be the day that they announce that the holders of vaccine passports can forego testing, paperwork, quarantine, and special insurance. When that happens, every flight scheduled for Thailand will sell every seat and the airlines will rush to resurrect their canceled routes.

This is, in fact, a massive opportunity for the people who Prayuth & Co. do work for, the elites. They own most of the buildings and will be among the few to still have operating cash.
 

Like after the Tsunami on the West coast, it will be an opportunity for those with capital to take over from the small businesses....... the self-employed will lose out and have to become waged employees of the rich.

 

[starky]

2 hours ago, simple1 said:

 

Australia experienced second wave commencing 06/20 in Victoria. Fed medical advice confirms Covid vaccination way to go. So far one out of 3.1 million vaccinated has been identified as dying from reaction to Astra Zeneca side effect. However, unfortunately many Australians subscribe to FUD, so ongoing delays

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232843v1#:~:text=Australia experienced a second wave,reduce rapidly increasing case numbers.&text=Results Modelling earlier activation of,numbers by more than 50%.

 

Also much BS in Thai social media creating same issues re reluctance to vaccinate.

Thanks for the link. I guess it's a matter of perspective for a country to have only 26000 cases and less than a thousand deaths it's not really comparable to what is considered "waves" in other countries.

 Im all for vaccination but im also all for us learning to live with covid forever. I know many Australians support what people like McGowan are doing and slamming borders shut and only allowing a handful of people in. 

 For me personally I see no advantage to  a zero sum strategy many will say "look  at India" for example but it's apples and oranges, again in my opinion. I'm sure many will disagree but continually closing shops and businesses and locking people in their homes when you are talking about 2 or 3 people to me is disproportionate. 

   I was in Brisbane for the last lockdown 8 people 3 of whom were historic cases had been wandering the streets for weeks and were actually free of covid by the time it was discovered whom also had the "highly contagious" UK variant . Multiple hot spots, hundreds of close contacts, state in lockdown. They found 3 extra community cases. Similar one in Perth recently similar result. I don't dare to extrapolate a result from that but I would say that to lock a state down when infected people have already been in the community for 4 weeks certainly raises a couple questions.

 Good on Australia for their success but as an island with a relatively small population that has refused to allow thier citizens to leave and in some instances return home with some of the strictest lockdowns in the world you really wouldn't expect any other result. But for how many years is that sustainable? And who wants to live like that?

Edited May 25, 2021 by starky

[Poet]

3 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Thailand like the rest of the world is going to need long term plans to allow tourists to return in their millions. As yet I don't see any plans for the future being set in place.

It is happening right in front of our eyes. The world has to be restarted, there never has been any other option, every government knows that. The vaccines were always going to be presented as "the solution", regardless of whether they worked or not. Luckily, it turns out they do work.

The plan being set in place is that the minority of fully-vaccinated folks will stomp around the world, spending money and doing business, and the poorer folks will catch up over the next few years. Some people will still die with Covid, but it won't seem so bad because governments will no longer gear the system towards overcounting (the current requirements for a covid-related death are absurdly broad).

It is all rather simple and obvious when you realize that there are no other options.
 

[Thomas J]

We seem to daily get a "new" estimate of when tourism may return.  That conjecture is about as reliable as the old philosophical discussion of how many angels can stand simultaneously on the head of a pin. 

The only things that are certain are:

1. The more restrictions and the more severe the restrictions are for tourists to visit such as 1. Covid Insurance, 2. Fit to Fly  3. Covid Testing prior to flights, 4. Vaccine Passport  5. mandatory quarantine.  The less likely tourists are to visit. 

2. The longer the government puts in place practices that inhibit tourists the more hotels, tourist attractions, and restaurants will go bankrupt giving tourists less reason to visit Thailand. 

3. The more prior Thailand tourists start to visit other vacation destinations, the more likely it is that they will discover destinations to revisit that they like as well or better than Thailand. 

So how can you even make an guess as to when tourism will return if you can't predict when Thailand will make it hospitable for the tourists to return.   As worthless as making guesses about tourism's return is, you can certainly make a better guestimate, if you know what and when the current impediments to tourists are lifted. 


 

[BusyB]

6 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Right.  I'm suppose to believe an anonymous member with a name like yours?  I call B...S...

 

I've got friends who are front line workers in the US.  They tell me a different story.  Sad some try to deny the severity of this pandemic.

 

Agree, saw its earlier posts ... and what the hell is an 'emergency department'? 555

Edited May 25, 2021 by BusyB

[Led Lolly Yellow Lolly]

2 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

Even if people could afford to travel here,there would be very little for them,so many places have closed down and will not be able to open ,the staff for one thing have left ,maybe not to return for years 

 

A couple of weeks ago we decided to pull the pin on our hotel business. It's a large property covering a large swathe of land with around 200 rooms. The baseline costs are eye watering. We are getting offers for the land, people want it for warehousing and distribution. The decision was easy. We also have other time consuming projects, so we're out. . .

 

Regarding your comment, as I said to my last remaining receptionist as she departed, there are no longer enough pilots to fly the planes, the mothballed airlines fleets will take years to bring back into service, the airlines will need to borrow vast amounts of money just to fuel them, and even if they could achieve all of this tomorrow, no one has the money to travel.

 

Dream on TAT. Morons.