Gloom and Doom, revisited.

[swissie]

On 6/6/2021 at 3:30 PM, Leaver said:

 

It's not my theory, it's a fact.  

 

The citizens of the country you wish to travel to, in this case, Thailand, need the same protection against potentially infected tourists during the window period in which they may be asymptomatic.  

 

When Thailand's borders will open, so you can come to Thailand, in now in the hands of the Thai's, and their vaccination program. 

 

You will know more in a few weeks of Thailand's vaccination rate capabilities, and by that, you will know roughly when you can come to Thailand.  

 

In other words, what you are saying is: All EU health ministeries including vaccine manufacturers are a bunch of dangerous morons!

You have the right to your personal opinion. As well as the dangerous official "morons" in Europe. I personally prefer the opinions of the official European "morons".

The buring question remains: Where do you get your "facts" from?

 

[swissie]

On 6/6/2021 at 3:44 PM, Pilotman said:

OP, not sure what you are drinking, or smoking, but i would like some of that so that I can live in la la land as well. ????

Have been a drug addict for decades. My favorite drugs have always been reliable News Sources, like: DPA AFP BBC CNN and established newspapers like The New York Times, The Times, Die Neue Zuercher Zeitung ect etc etc.  No, I don't get my clues from small time internet Guru's.

If there is something specific that you don't quite understand with regard to my OP comment, I will be glad to answer specific questions, granted that I have the time and the inclination to do so. 

[adammike]

6 hours ago, jippytum said:

Depending on the type of business i would not deter you from investing in Thailand.The gloom and doom merchants who think places like pattaya and the businesses therein are gone forever are mistaken.

A large proportion of the worlds population are craving a holiday and when the virus danger reduces and travel opens up there will be a mad rush of people coming to Thailand.

However be careful what you wish for.  Personally i am enjoying Thailand very much without the hoards of Chinese that will certainly descend upon us in the not too distant future.

That's me, desperate to get on a plane that's been parked up on some airport apron somewhere for what may be the best part of two years,and probably pay top dollar for the privilege.God only knows what sort of reception awaits those brave pioneers who land on the beaches of Thailand first.I salute them.

[swissie]

1 hour ago, Poet said:

Trust me, there is no point having a discussion with that guy. He makes the same illogical claims in many threads and, no matter how patiently you try to point out reality, he takes nothing onboard.

You are absolutely correct. Western tourists who are fully-vaccinated, with effective Western vaccines, and coming from countries with low levels of infection (by July) pose no biological risk to the Thai public, regardless of whether the Thai public are vaccinated, and the Thai public pose no danger to the vaccinated tourists.

I know, I know.  Said poster reminds me of a Stock-Market Guru named Marc Faber. He predicted the ultimate "crash" for many a years. It never happened (quite the opposite).  No wonder, his "customer-base" erodet. Forcing him to abandon his expensive Hongkong Business Domicile in exchange for a relatively modest dwelling in Chiang Mai.

 

Similarities between Marc Faber and "said poster" would be purely accidental. Of course.

[Scouse123]

8 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Pattaya wasn't doing so well pre covid.  

 

Yeah,

 

You are right.

 

Some have short memories that the Thais had forgotten Westerners were a thing of the past and had no reckoning in the future of Pattaya with bloated expats in beer bars becoming a stereotypical laughing stock and the butt of all jokes whilst whilst they geared up for all those Chinese and Indians.

 

Now, India has the worst of all the pandemic with exports of vaccines suspended being sent abroad and China forcing its citizens, more or less, to holiday at home.

 

What other members seem to be forgetting, it's not only their home countries rules and regulations they have to be concerned about and take into consideration, it's also the plethora of rules and regulations by the destination country as well.

 

I have just cancelled my flight and requested refund from Qatar, I can't realistically see a trip to the UK this year unless I want to jump through a ridiculous amount of hoops at both ends, no fun, time consuming and expensive.

 

 

 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Scouse123

[gargamon]

On 6/3/2021 at 8:25 AM, swissie said:

Joke: In the "great depression" 1929 there was this lady in New York asking a bystander: "Where is the nearest public toilet"? Bystander: Oh lady, right here, just around the corner. Lady: "Don't give me that Hoover-Talk, I really have to go".

Took me a while to get this. First I wondered what a vacuum cleaner (Hoover) had to do with toilets. After I realized Hoover used to be a president it all became apparent. I hadn't heard the term Hoover-Talk before. If I had, there would have been many opportunites to use a similar term, Trump-Talk, for a myriad of lies told over the last few years.

 

As for the OP, I agree that Pattaya pre-covid was declining substantially. There hasn't been a "high-season" for many many years. This is just another nail in the coffin. 

 

In my mind, the worst thing that has happened in Pattaya/Thailand is the prevalence of fake breasts. Once the original ones are so chewed up they need the fakes to make them presentable, it's too late for that provider. 

[Andycoops]

If you have the capital to buy now and keep paying the overheads until viable amounts of tourists arrive, then go ahead.

The current amount of businesses going under is because owners are running out of money before they can reopen.

Deep pockets are required.

[BritManToo]

15 hours ago, jippytum said:

Depending on the type of business i would not deter you from investing in Thailand.The gloom and doom merchants who think places like pattaya and the businesses therein are gone forever are mistaken.

A large proportion of the worlds population are craving a holiday and when the virus danger reduces and travel opens up there will be a mad rush of people coming to Thailand.

However be careful what you wish for.  Personally i am enjoying Thailand very much without the hoards of Chinese that will certainly descend upon us in the not too distant future.

Doom and gloom merchant here ...........

I don't believe cheap international travel will return to the world in my lifetime.

I don't believe the middle classes will have much spare cash to spend on holidays either.

[Leaver]

12 hours ago, HashBrownHarry said:

Are you going to leave?

 

The UK has already left.

[ericthai]

On 6/4/2021 at 5:58 AM, swissie said:

As I mentioned, it all depends on the pace of vaccinations. In Europe we are now vaccinating at a record pace. With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone. A mathematical phenomenon called "exponential decay" is taking place. Soon, even Thailand will get is't "vaccination act" together.

Currently an international Vaccination-Certificate is in the making. Can't see Thailand not accepting this certificate when most other tourist destinations do. Once this Quarantaine obstacle is removed, BKK-Airport will be very busy again, in no time at all.
But again, the pace of vaccinations is the (only) deciding factor. After that, all other factors will fall into place. Even in Pattaya.

I think you are over looking the issue that allot of would be tourists have not been working and dont have the extra cash for a holiday. 

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, Poet said:

Trust me, there is no point having a discussion with that guy. He makes the same illogical claims in many threads and, no matter how patiently you try to point out reality, he takes nothing onboard.

You are absolutely correct. Western tourists who are fully-vaccinated, with effective Western vaccines, and coming from countries with low levels of infection (by July) pose no biological risk to the Thai public, regardless of whether the Thai public are vaccinated, and the Thai public pose no danger to the vaccinated tourists.

 

How about you play the post, not the poster.

 

If fully vaccinated people pose no threat, to anyone, why are they not already flying around the world for holidays?  

 

There's also the other issue of families.  The parents may be vaccinated, but the children will not be, and the children can carry and spread the disease as well.  It maybe months until all the adults are vaccinated in countries, then children can be vaccinated, so don't count on tourist families coming anytime soon.

 

If you Google "can you catch covid after being vaccinated" you will see pages of information about it.  

 

He's just one article.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

 

You are posting misinformation.  

 

 

 

 

[JonnyF]

11 hours ago, Poet said:

Trust me, there is no point having a discussion with that guy. He makes the same illogical claims in many threads and, no matter how patiently you try to point out reality, he takes nothing onboard.

You are absolutely correct. Western tourists who are fully-vaccinated, with effective Western vaccines, and coming from countries with low levels of infection (by July) pose no biological risk to the Thai public, regardless of whether the Thai public are vaccinated, and the Thai public pose no danger to the vaccinated tourists.

 

But surely a vaccinated western tourist who has the virus (but is not sick due to being vaccinated) is still a danger to an unvaccinated Thai serving them in a restaurant or wherever. Having the vaccine just means you don't get so sick. You can still catch it and pass it on to others and if they are not vaccinated they will get sick. 

 

Also, foreign governments are concerned with their own countries, not Thailand. Hence the aim of these foreign governments is to keep the numbers in their own countries as low as possible, even if their population is largely vaccinated.

 

This is why Portugal (for example) with their rising number of cases has just been removed from the UK's 'green list' meaning that anyone from the UK who goes on holiday there has to quarantine on the way home. This is expensive and inconvenient for the tourist hence many are cancelling.

 

The same logic will be applied to foreign tourists visiting Thailand. If Thailand has rising cases (which foreign governments know are also under reported due to low testing numbers) and an unvaccinated population then they're not going to make it onto any green lists. Hence tourists will go to other countries that ARE on the green list.

 

Then you've got the pre-existing issues of Thailand gaining a reputation as an increasingly authoritarian, military led country that is not even close to what it was 20 years ago, with frequent alcohol bans, silly scams, strong Baht, rising prices, less smiles etc. 

 

I think Thailand can forget about large numbers of western tourists for at least 2 years, probably more. As for the Chinese, we don't really know what's happening over there but they won't be frequenting many farang bars even in the unlikely event they do return en masse. 

 

I certainly wouldn't be sinking millions of Baht into a farang orientated business any time soon.

 

 

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

In other words, what you are saying is: All EU health ministeries including vaccine manufacturers are a bunch of dangerous morons!

 

No.  I didn't say that, you are saying that.

 

10 hours ago, swissie said:

You have the right to your personal opinion.

 

It's not an opinion, it is a proven fact.

 

10 hours ago, swissie said:

The buring question remains: Where do you get your "facts" from?

 

Same reply to you, as in another post.  

 

Google "can you still catch covid after being vaccinated" and you will see pages of information from creditable sources confirming this.

 

As I have posted in the past:

 

1 vaccinated person + 1 unvaccinated person = low risk.

 

1 vaccinated person + 1 unvaccinated person = higher risk.

 

Countries are not accepting the higher risk, despite it being lower than 1 unvaccinated person + 1 unvaccinated person = vey high risk.   

 

Here's the link from the previous post, for your benefit.  The article is from the CDC.  Are you saying they are wrong?  Are they "morons?"

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

 

At the top of the article it says this:

 

"COVID-19 vaccines are effective. However, a small percentage of people who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19 if they are exposed to the virus that causes it."

 

 

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

Have been a drug addict for decades. My favorite drugs have always been reliable News Sources, like: DPA AFP BBC CNN and established newspapers like The New York Times, The Times, Die Neue Zuercher Zeitung ect etc etc.  No, I don't get my clues from small time internet Guru's.

If there is something specific that you don't quite understand with regard to my OP comment, I will be glad to answer specific questions, granted that I have the time and the inclination to do so. 

 

Link/s please.  

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, adammike said:

That's me, desperate to get on a plane that's been parked up on some airport apron somewhere for what may be the best part of two years,and probably pay top dollar for the privilege.God only knows what sort of reception awaits those brave pioneers who land on the beaches of Thailand first.I salute them.

 

The borders could open tomorrow, but that doesn't get planes in the air.

 

If you could get to Pattaya tomorrow, would you want to come here, even when bars can open?  Might be a waste of your hard earned.  What would you be expecting?  

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

I know, I know.  Said poster reminds me of a Stock-Market Guru named Marc Faber. He predicted the ultimate "crash" for many a years. It never happened (quite the opposite).  No wonder, his "customer-base" erodet. Forcing him to abandon his expensive Hongkong Business Domicile in exchange for a relatively modest dwelling in Chiang Mai.

 

Similarities between Marc Faber and "said poster" would be purely accidental. Of course.

 

They also laughed at Michael Burry, until the GFC hit.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry

 

[JonnyF]

10 hours ago, adammike said:

That's me, desperate to get on a plane that's been parked up on some airport apron somewhere for what may be the best part of two years,and probably pay top dollar for the privilege.God only knows what sort of reception awaits those brave pioneers who land on the beaches of Thailand first.I salute them.

Can you imagine the gang of taxi guys waiting for you at the airport. No customers for 2 years. That would be a fun negotiation.????

 

Edited June 8, 2021 by JonnyF

[Leaver]

7 hours ago, Scouse123 said:

What other members seem to be forgetting, it's not only their home countries rules and regulations they have to be concerned about and take into consideration, it's also the plethora of rules and regulations by the destination country as well.

 

 

For many, it's the 2 weeks quarantine upon arriving back in their home country that may continue to be a deal breaker on a holiday to Thailand.  

 

I believe this has been, or will be, shortened to 3 to 5 days quarantine, once again, for that "window period" of possible infection, despite being vaccinated.  They will be tested at the end of their 3 or 5 days, and if negative, released.   

 

Eventually, all quarantine will end, but in the short term, many may not holiday at all until there in zero quarantine in their own country upon return, and zero quarantine in the country they wish to travel to.  

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, Andycoops said:

If you have the capital to buy now and keep paying the overheads until viable amounts of tourists arrive, then go ahead.

The current amount of businesses going under is because owners are running out of money before they can reopen.

Deep pockets are required.

 

Why input your capital now?  Too many variables.  Too much uncertainty.  Also, why not wait until Pattaya has hit the bottom?  

[SABloke]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

Doom and gloom merchant here ...........

I don't believe cheap international travel will return to the world in my lifetime.

I don't believe the middle classes will have much spare cash to spend on holidays either.

 

When you refer to "Cheap International Travel" do you refer to complete holidays or only the flights? I'm asking because I can currently get international and domestic flights for the same (and sometimes cheaper) prices that I got in July 2019? Does anybody have concrete examples that current air travel prices as a rule are astronomically high, because I just don't see it.

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, SABloke said:

When you refer to "Cheap International Travel" do you refer to complete holidays or only the flights?

Did you forget the expensive quarantine hotels?

Did you forget the worthless COVID insurance?

Did you forget needing 6 weeks leave for a 2 week holiday (14 day quarantine coming out, 2 week holiday, 14 day quarantine coming back)

[Leaver]

33 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

But surely a vaccinated western tourist who has the virus (but is not sick due to being vaccinated) is still a danger to an unvaccinated Thai serving them in a restaurant or wherever. Having the vaccine just means you don't get so sick. You can still catch it and pass it on to others and if they are not vaccinated they will get sick. 

 

What if said vaccinated tourist is infected, but asymptomatic when they board the plane?  Now, the people around them on the plane become infected, and those people become asymptomatic whilst on their holiday, spreading the virus throughout Thailand.  

 

 

[Pilotman]

11 hours ago, swissie said:

I have the time and the inclination to do so. 

 most of us don't  

[JonnyF]

8 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

What if said vaccinated tourist is infected, but asymptomatic when they board the plane?  Now, the people around them on the plane become infected, and those people become asymptomatic whilst on their holiday, spreading the virus throughout Thailand.  

 

 

 

Exactly.

 

Or maybe a vaccinated sex tourist is not infected upon landing in Thailand, catches it on his first night in the bars and then spends the next 3 weeks giving it to every unvaccinated bargirl he has an 'encounter' with. Returns home still feeling fine and never even knew he had it. 

 

This idea that Thailand doesn't have to worry because everyone else will be vaccinated is deeply flawed. It seems this was the government's 'strategy' for a few months but they've finally worked it out - way too late.

[SABloke]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Did you forget the expensive quarantine hotels?

Did you forget the worthless COVID insurance?

Did you forget needing 6 weeks leave for a 2 week holiday (14 day quarantine coming out, 2 week holiday, 14 day quarantine coming back)

 

No, I didn't and I would classify those costs as part of the "complete holidays" and not the flights which is why I clearly asked you what you meant. Also, I suspect your life expectancy must be very short if you think quarantine won't disappear during your lifetime - and for that I'm truly sorry. For most people I think forms of cheap international travel could return by mid 2022 (even earlier if you don't include Asian destinations).

[petermik]

7 hours ago, SABloke said:

 

 For most people I think forms of cheap international travel could return by mid 2022 (even earlier if you don't include Asian destinations).

Friend of mine back in the UK booked a flight MAN/BKK return 22nd October this year last week with Qatar £450.....price will be held over till next year if restrictions are still in place.

[jacko45k]

18 minutes ago, petermik said:

Friend of mine back in the UK booked a flight MAN/BKK return 22nd October this year last week with Qatar £450.....price will be held over till next year if restrictions are still in place.

Cheap as chips....

[BumGun]

Anywhere in say View Talay 6 going for a reasonable price (not the Hliton side) and up high ???? or something similar

[talahtnut]

19 hours ago, swissie said:

Have been a drug addict for decades. My favorite drugs have always been reliable News Sources, like: DPA AFP BBC CNN and established newspapers like The New York Times, The Times, Die Neue Zuercher Zeitung ect etc etc.  No, I don't get my clues from small time internet Guru's.

Oh dear, I'm sorry to say that you have been thoroughly brainwashed.

If you want the truth you must do your own research into actual government

figures, usually well hidden, not the ones published or broadcast on MSM.

[DerbyDan]

when i lived in mexico the toilet did not work in an airbnb i stayed in for a month. there was a female flight attendant who holed up in a hidden bedroom living there when i was suppossed to have rented the entire apt for myself. she would leave early for work in the morning.

 

one night i took a dump in the toilet and just left it there because it would not flush. i was <deleted> about it. in the morning i heard her plunging the toilet and when i got up later it was sparkling clean. that's how i found out she was using the other room, coming in unseen late at night, and leaving first thing in the morning.