Gloom and Doom, revisited.

kwilco · June 9, 2021

Why do people think it will be "all over"?

Covid is here to stay - the job is not to return to normal, but to mange Covid and keep it under control.

kwilco · June 9, 2021

On 6/6/2021 at 2:30 PM, Leaver said:

It's not my theory, it's a fact.

The citizens of the country you wish to travel to, in this case, Thailand, need the same protection against potentially infected tourists during the window period in which they may be asymptomatic.

When Thailand's borders will open, so you can come to Thailand, in now in the hands of the Thai's, and their vaccination program.

You will know more in a few weeks of Thailand's vaccination rate capabilities, and by that, you will know roughly when you can come to Thailand.

I find that when anyone uses the phrase "it's a fact" - the best thing to do is ignore them.

rcuthbert · June 9, 2021

"It's the economy - stupid." James Carville

Leaver · June 10, 2021

On 6/8/2021 at 9:26 AM, JonnyF said:

It seems this was the government's 'strategy' for a few months but they've finally worked it out - way too late.

I agree.

They were too busy doing nothing in order to save a few baht, then when they discovered an individual can still catch covid and spread covid, despite being vaccinated, they finally realised they will have to spend some money and vaccinate the Thai people, however, due to being late to the party, their purchasing orders are down the list, and they didn't train up any staff for the roll out.

It will all end up as costing not only for the vaccines, but also billions of dollars lost in tourism.

Leaver · June 10, 2021

15 hours ago, kwilco said:

the job is not to return to normal, but to mange Covid and keep it under control.

15 hours ago, kwilco said:

I find that when anyone uses the phrase "it's a fact" - the best thing to do is ignore them.

You have contradicted yourself.

TaaSaparot · June 10, 2021

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

They were too busy doing nothing in order to save a few baht, then when they discovered an individual can still catch covid and spread covid, despite being vaccinated

Not sure, Phuket yesterday was banging on about Herd Immunity after 70% of the population is vaccinated.

Leaver · June 10, 2021

1 hour ago, TaaSaparot said:

Not sure, Phuket yesterday was banging on about Herd Immunity after 70% of the population is vaccinated.

I always said if they diverted their vaccines to Phuket, they could reach the 70% quicker, quarantine the island, and open up to tourists, but diverting vaccines comes at a cost, possible at the cost of lives, to other provinces and people who have to wait longer to be vaccinated.

kwilco · June 10, 2021

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

You have contradicted yourself.

How so?

Leaver · June 10, 2021

2 minutes ago, kwilco said:

How so?

You said, "the jab is not a return to normal" which is basically something I said was "a fact" in a previous post, which you attacked.

swissie · June 10, 2021

On 6/8/2021 at 3:20 AM, Leaver said:

How about you play the post, not the poster.

If fully vaccinated people pose no threat, to anyone, why are they not already flying around the world for holidays?

There's also the other issue of families. The parents may be vaccinated, but the children will not be, and the children can carry and spread the disease as well. It maybe months until all the adults are vaccinated in countries, then children can be vaccinated, so don't count on tourist families coming anytime soon.

If you Google "can you catch covid after being vaccinated" you will see pages of information about it.

He's just one article.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

You are posting misinformation.

You wrote: "If fully vaccinated people pose no threat, to anyone, why are they not already flying around the world for holidays"?
Because "Vacci-Certificates" must be issued first. Coming soon.
----------------------------------------------------------
I requote my post:
"If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.
Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.
I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.
-----------------------------------------------------------
You have (so far and unfortunately) not commented specifically on the above. Taking your concerns into account, why (for God's sake) is nobody stopping those potential "mass-murderers"?

Leaver · June 10, 2021

3 minutes ago, swissie said:

You wrote: "If fully vaccinated people pose no threat, to anyone, why are they not already flying around the world for holidays"?
Because "Vacci-Certificates" must be issued first. Coming soon.

How does a vacci-certificate protect a non vaccinated Thai? It doesn't, so you will need your certificate to show you have been vaccinated, and you will need to wait until Thai's have been vaccinated.

At current rates, and all going well, particularly with supply, you are looking at Jan 2022.

7 minutes ago, swissie said:

Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.

It's not a theory.

8 minutes ago, swissie said:

You have (so far and unfortunately) not commented specifically on the above. Taking your concerns into account, why (for God's sake) is nobody stopping those potential "mass-murderers"?

The potential mass murderers are tourists, vaccinated or unvaccinated, arriving in a country where the population HAS NOT been vaccinated to a significant level, no matter what pieces of paper they have to show that they have been vaccinated.

Did you even look at the link I posted? It's says a small percentage of fully vaccinated people will still get covid.

Let's say "a small percentage" is only 0.10%. That's 1 person in 1000 people.

Say there's 400 people on a plane. For every 2.5 planes landing, there is 1 infected person entering Thailand. How many planes, from how many countries, land in Thailand each day if / when they open up?

Lets say there were only 50 planes a day. That's only about 2 an hour.

50 planes a day x 400 people per plane = 20,000 arrivals.

20,000 arrivals x 0.10% = 20 infected people arriving each day, and spreading out all over Thailand, and being in close contact with Thai's from bar girls to taxi drivers, to waitresses to hotel reception staff.

Here it is again:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

"COVID-19 vaccines are effective. However, a small percentage of people who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19 if they are exposed to the virus that causes it."

swissie · June 10, 2021

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

How does a vacci-certificate protect a non vaccinated Thai? It doesn't, so you will need your certificate to show you have been vaccinated, and you will need to wait until Thai's have been vaccinated.

At current rates, and all going well, particularly with supply, you are looking at Jan 2022.

It's not a theory.

The potential mass murderers are tourists, vaccinated or unvaccinated, arriving in a country where the population HAS NOT been vaccinated to a significant level, no matter what pieces of paper they have to show that they have been vaccinated.

Did you even look at the link I posted? It's says a small percentage of fully vaccinated people will still get covid.

Let's say "a small percentage" is only 0.10%. That's 1 person in 1000 people.

Say there's 400 people on a plane. For every 2.5 planes landing, there is 1 infected person entering Thailand. How many planes, from how many countries, land in Thailand each day if / when they open up?

Lets say there were only 50 planes a day. That's only about 2 an hour.

50 planes a day x 400 people per plane = 20,000 arrivals.

20,000 arrivals x 0.10% = 20 infected people arriving each day, and spreading out all over Thailand, and being in close contact with Thai's from bar girls to taxi drivers, to waitresses to hotel reception staff.

Here it is again:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

"COVID-19 vaccines are effective. However, a small percentage of people who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19 if they are exposed to the virus that causes it."

You still didn't answer to:
I requote my post:
"If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.
Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.
I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.
-----------------------------------------------------------
You have (so far and unfortunately) not commented specifically on the above. Taking your concerns into account, why (for God's sake) is nobody stopping those potential "mass-murderers"?
==============================================
Why (staunchly) not willing to comment on the above? Unless you do, we are playing a zero-sum game. Possibly my question has put a "white Elephant" in your room. I am afraid unless you answer to the above, this "white Elephant" will stay in your room. Your room, not mine, well understood.

What are we going to do about all those potential "mass-murderers" sitting in Health-Ministeries and in the laboratories of Vaccine-Manufacturers? You should urgently convey your findings to those ignorant scoundrels in order to prevent great harm to humanity.

Leaver · June 10, 2021

1 hour ago, swissie said:

You still didn't answer to:
I requote my post:
"If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.
Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.
I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.
-----------------------------------------------------------
You have (so far and unfortunately) not commented specifically on the above. Taking your concerns into account, why (for God's sake) is nobody stopping those potential "mass-murderers"?
==============================================
Why (staunchly) not willing to comment on the above? Unless you do, we are playing a zero-sum game. Possibly my question has put a "white Elephant" in your room. I am afraid unless you answer to the above, this "white Elephant" will stay in your room. Your room, not mine, well understood.

What are we going to do about all those potential "mass-murderers" sitting in Health-Ministeries and in the laboratories of Vaccine-Manufacturers? You should urgently convey your findings to those ignorant scoundrels in order to prevent great harm to humanity.

The best way to address your EU comparison is with this graph. Check Europe and Thailand in the boxes and you will see why the EU is opening and Thailand is not.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL

See how far Europe is ahead of Thailand, and the rest of the world, in vaccinating people. This means they can open up sooner.

See how far Thailand is behind the rest of the world. This means they can't open up yet.

Here's an article about the EU opening up. There will still be some restrictions for some countries.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2021/06/01/europe-is-opening-june-eu-travel-restrictions-covid-19-test-requirements-quarantine-by-country/#:~:text=many EU%2FSchengen area countries,negative Covid-19 test result.&text=Every EU country will be,of this by July 1.

Here's a quote. The EU is not completely open for tourism, restriction free, as you tend to suggest it is.

"many EU/Schengen area countries are now open for tourism–some without quarantine, some only to the fully vaccinated, some only to other EU countries and some to anyone with a negative Covid-19 test result."

Edited June 10, 2021 by Leaver

TaaSaparot · June 10, 2021

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

I always said if they diverted their vaccines to Phuket, they could reach the 70% quicker, quarantine the island, and open up to tourists, but diverting vaccines comes at a cost, possible at the cost of lives, to other provinces and people who have to wait longer to be vaccinated.

And wheres the proof Herd Immunity is 70%?

Leaver · June 11, 2021

13 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

And wheres the proof Herd Immunity is 70%?

Plenty of articles on the internet. Doctors have suggested the minimum be 65%, but countries should aim for higher, like 75% to 80% of the population to be vaccinated.

In my opinion, the term "herd immunity" is little misleading, for two reasons. Firstly, children are part of the herd, and at this stage, they are not being considered for vaccination, which is understandable, due to an extremely low mortality rate. So, I fail to see how herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination if around 30% of the herd are not vaccinated.

Secondly, you can still catch covid and spread covid after being vaccinated, which doesn't exactly mean you are immune.

Captain Monday · June 11, 2021

There wont be any high season 2021-2022 in Thailand.

19 hours ago, swissie said:

You still didn't answer to:
I requote my post:
"If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.
Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.
I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.
-----------------------------------------------------------
You have (so far and unfortunately) not commented specifically on the above. Taking your concerns into account, why (for God's sake) is nobody stopping those potential "mass-murderers"?
==============================================
Why (staunchly) not willing to comment on the above? Unless you do, we are playing a zero-sum game. Possibly my question has put a "white Elephant" in your room. I am afraid unless you answer to the above, this "white Elephant" will stay in your room. Your room, not mine, well understood.

What are we going to do about all those potential "mass-murderers" sitting in Health-Ministeries and in the laboratories of Vaccine-Manufacturers? You should urgently convey your findings to those ignorant scoundrels in order to prevent great harm to humanity.

Well one thing is the perception of the pandemic, which is most important now. EU and USA are keen to manage to a different balance. Most Asian countries are pushing the unobtainable and will hold firm to ludicrous entry restrictions and economic strangulation , a unicorn hunt for zero covid.. Australia will not even be letting their vaccinated citizens travel without confinement on return for one more year, minimum and they are in no hurry.

There will be no high season 2021-2022 in Thailand probably not until Fall 2023

At least a year early to even consider any tourism related business ventures,

kwilco · June 11, 2021

On 6/10/2021 at 10:23 AM, Leaver said:

You said, "the jab is not a return to normal" which is basically something I said was "a fact" in a previous post, which you attacked.

You need to think a bit - people who say "it's a fact" etc need to be ignored, it is a poor argument tool. - this could be reflexive.

kwilco · June 11, 2021

18 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

And wheres the proof Herd Immunity is 70%?

Seriously? re you not familiar with vaccination? This is not new - it is a demographic statistic that has been established for years - I really think the only thing your post does is reveal how ill-informed you are. You need to get better informed on the back ground of vaccinations.

polpott · June 11, 2021

On 6/4/2021 at 10:58 AM, swissie said:

As I mentioned, it all depends on the pace of vaccinations. In Europe we are now vaccinating at a record pace. With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone. A mathematical phenomenon called "exponential decay" is taking place. Soon, even Thailand will get is't "vaccination act" together.

Currently an international Vaccination-Certificate is in the making. Can't see Thailand not accepting this certificate when most other tourist destinations do. Once this Quarantaine obstacle is removed, BKK-Airport will be very busy again, in no time at all.
But again, the pace of vaccinations is the (only) deciding factor. After that, all other factors will fall into place. Even in Pattaya.

Plus Pattaya is being prioritised for vaccinations with its very own sandbox due to be launched in October. many farangs chomping at the leash, waiting to get back here.

rott · June 11, 2021

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

Seriously? re you not familiar with vaccination? This is not new - it is a demographic statistic that has been established for years - I really think the only thing your post does is reveal how ill-informed you are. You need to get better informed on the back ground of vaccinations.

I had never looked up a definition of herd immunity before reading your post and the first result on Google from "Oxford Languages" says that a vaccination level of 83% to 94% is needed to achieve it.

But I am sure you're right.

kwilco · June 11, 2021

19 minutes ago, rott said:

I had never looked up a definition of herd immunity before reading your post and the first result on Google from "Oxford Languages" says that a vaccination level of 83% to 94% is needed to achieve it.

But I am sure you're right.

Ah...a one quote wonder...You clearly don't now to use Google either ....you need to learn the difference between search and research. You still are not informed on a topic you have decided to talk about.

Edited June 11, 2021 by kwilco

rott · June 11, 2021

12 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Ah...a one quote wonder...You clearly don't now to use Google either ....you need to learn the difference between search and research. You still are not informed on a topic you have decided to talk about.

So educate me, tell me the sources of 60% to 75%. I do not doubt you I am just curious, as I said I was looking for information and I still am.

polpott · June 11, 2021

2 hours ago, rott said:

So educate me, tell me the sources of 60% to 75%. I do not doubt you I am just curious, as I said I was looking for information and I still am.

Assuming a vaccine is 100% effective, then the equation used for calculating the herd immunity threshold can be used for calculating the vaccination level needed to eliminate a disease, written as V_c.^[1] Vaccines are usually imperfect however, so the effectiveness, E, of a vaccine must be accounted for:

$V_{c}={\frac {1-{\frac {1}{R_{0}}}}{E}}.$

TaaSaparot · June 11, 2021

8 hours ago, Captain Monday said:

There wont be any high season 2021-2022 in Thailand.

Seriously?

I have already written off 2022-2023 high season.

And this time last year I was being laughed at.

TaaSaparot · June 11, 2021

5 hours ago, kwilco said:

Seriously? re you not familiar with vaccination? This is not new - it is a demographic statistic that has been established for years - I really think the only thing your post does is reveal how ill-informed you are. You need to get better informed on the back ground of vaccinations.

But where is the FACT that 70% covid vaccination has resulted in Herd Immunity?

kwilco · June 11, 2021

5 hours ago, rott said:

So educate me, tell me the sources of 60% to 75%. I do not doubt you I am just curious, as I said I was looking for information and I still am.

More nonsense - if you want to discuss a topic get yourself up to speed - it is again the hallmark of someone with no argument who demands citations because it disagrees with their prejudices..

kwilco · June 11, 2021

2 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

But where is the FACT that 70% covid vaccination has resulted in Herd Immunity?

"fact"??? - what did I say?

why is it the bootless and unhorsed always think in black and white?

adammike · June 11, 2021

2 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

But where is the FACT that 70% covid vaccination has resulted in Herd Immunity?

When herd immunity first reared its ugly head in the UK last year,it was outed as a concept not a fact.

rott · June 11, 2021

30 minutes ago, kwilco said:

More nonsense - if you want to discuss a topic get yourself up to speed - it is again the hallmark of someone with no argument who demands citations because it disagrees with their prejudices..

It is a subject I know nothing of. I was looking for info on how and why 70% vaccinated became 100% immunity and the figures 83% to 94% were the first things I came across. I have no prejudices, most of the world agrees with you, I just have no idea where 70% originated. Instead of giving a simple answer you rear up and turn nasty. Up to you as they say where I am.

rott · June 11, 2021

13 minutes ago, adammike said:

When herd immunity first reared its ugly head in the UK last year,it was outed as a concept not a fact.

Thank you, why couldn't your mate give a simple answer like that.

So is the whole world taking an unproven theory as a scientific objective.?

So the only basis for the claim of 70% vaccinated giving herd immunity is the claim itself. That is what I understand you to be saying.

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