COVID-19: Thailand reports new daily record of 53 deaths; 4,786 new cases

[GroveHillWanderer]

3 hours ago, ICELANDMAN said:

 

Jerusalem Post is not Facebook  https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

I'm not sure why you keep posting a link to a 6-month old story that is about the alpha (UK) variant and has nothing to do with the efficacy of vaccines.

[Daithi85]

Can anyone explain to me how Singapore has had only 35 deaths since this all began??

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3 hours ago, ICELANDMAN said:

 

Not only with Sinovac you see Israel with the new delta variant all vaccines are ineffective for 40%

 

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

 

That link doesn't mean what you think it does. It says nothing about what percentage of the people infected with uk variant, or any variant for that matter  were inoculated

[greenmonkey]

28 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I believe that the UK is about 50% vaccinated.

more than 44 million have had at leaast one vaccine. But I think you are missing the point...

[wensiensheng]

35 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

 

You talk math while some of us talk elementary logic.  And that logic is this:  You can't cite the death rate being "low" now as proof the virus isn't that dangerous so restrictions should be lifted, because -- and this is the hard part that right-wing libertarians have such a hard time understanding:  Restrictions are in place now.  Remove the restrictions and the death rate soars.  Get it?

 

That is clearly true, not least because more cases equals more hospitalizations, to the point that hospitals cannot accept more patients. Patients that do not receive medical care, are more likely to die than those that do not. Hence the death rate rises.

 

relatives of the dead get very very unhappy when their loved one dies without receiving any medical care.

 

are we close to that point. Well, it has already been officially reported that a policy of not accepting migrant workers at one medical receiving centre in Bangkok, has been instituted. In certain areas, unfortunately the most populous, Thailand is, or is at the point of, having its medical facilities overwhelmed.

 

I’m not sure what the mathematical equation is for all this though.

[ourmanflint]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Indonesia is in a mess we certainly don't want Thailand to compete with the same figures.

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1410039489641148420

 

 

I must admit, I did think this current surge was due to the delta variant, but according to some newsposts yesterday, that is not true, and the current surge is mainly down to the alpha or British variant with over 75% of cases.

If true, then as the delta variant takes hold it is inevitable that it will have the same effect in Thailand as it has been in Indonesia where it is now the dominant strain

Maybe 10,000+ per day will be the new norm very soon?

[wensiensheng]

10 minutes ago, Daithi85 said:

Can anyone explain to me how Singapore has had only 35 deaths since this all began??

A low number of cases, early and a high standard of medical care.

 

if there is a country in the world who’s Covid statistics I would believe, Singapore is it.

[Johnny Mac]

12 minutes ago, Daithi85 said:

Can anyone explain to me how Singapore has had only 35 deaths since this all began??

Because the 36th one hasn't croaked yet.

[wensiensheng]

Just now, ourmanflint said:

 

I must admit, I did think this current surge was due to the delta variant, but according to some newsposts yesterday, that is not true, and the current surge is mainly down to the alpha or British variant with over 75% of cases.

If true, then as the delta variant takes hold it is inevitable that it will have the same effect in Thailand as it has been in Indonesia where it is now the dominant strain

Maybe 10,000+ per day will be the new norm very soon?

Not just Indonesia, but also UK. A very high percentage of their new cases is due to the delta strain now taking hold. And of course they went through alpha in graphic fashion.

 

so presumable, the current alpha cases in Thailand will be supplanted with a greater number of delta, due to the latters higher contagion. Just my opinion based on what happened in the UK.

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3 hours ago, ICELANDMAN said:

 

Jerusalem Post is not Facebook  https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

As someone else pointed out, this article is dated Jan 19, 2021. By that date a total of 2.94 million inoculations had been administered. Given that vaccinations started on Dec 19 most of those were first time inoculations.

[FarFlungFalang]

44 minutes ago, smedly said:

what is the point of your post ?, it really is lost on me, you seem to trying to say something then arguing with yourself against it, might be best to just leave it there

My point is about the way we accept death from certain things and not others.It's about the choices we make in our lives and how it affects our ability to survive certain threats to our well being.It's also about fear.To me there is only one fear, the fear of death.Some fear covid yet eat too much and exercise too little putting themselves at risk of an early death yet it's only when they get a scare do they do something about it but some will continue on as they have always done and ignore the fact that they might be reducing their ability the survive to their potential, for some of those there is no second chance.For me being a surfer I was more worried about sharks than I was about road accidents.Mostly though my point was about putting the numbers into perspective, covid is all the rage now but with the vaccines we now have it looks like the dangers from covid will be reduced to a point where people will be more worried about getting the flu.

Here's another example: Apparently 25000 people die of starvation each day, that's about 9 million each year.Are you terribly concerned about that?What do covid lockdown restrictions do for people dying of starvation?

Please someone tell me it's their choice.

Edited June 30, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

Sorry, day job's gotten really busy, so apologies if I write in bullet points or short form.

 

 

Yes. Will do the math for you.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India Covid deaths: ~400k.

 

400,000 deaths/1,300,000,000 pop = 0.0003.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India 2020 pop growth rate: ~1%

1,300,000,000*.01 = 13,000,000.

 

For fun let's assume every single Covid death was an additional net death that detracts from pop growth.

13,000,000-400,000 = net population change of +12,600,000.

 

Ladies and gents, the dreaded DeltΔ Variant.

 

 

No disagreement here. I just see the problem from a different perspective and with a different sense of scale than most on TVF seem to.

Congratulations. You may be the only person in the world to believe that India's mortality figures are anything close to accurate.

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2 hours ago, smedly said:

different countries report in different ways - countries like India, Thailand and other 3rd world countries are almost certainly underreported - the UK is likely over reported 

 

which would you rather have

No, the UK is also likely under-reported as excess mortality figures show.

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137

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1 hour ago, tingtong said:

 

A better comparison would be per population...

Then Thailand is near par with Indonesia (270m ppl there), and way worse than the Philippines...

And Malaysia would take the top spot (31m ppl), with about 2x more by % population then top of list Indonesia...

 

Either way, Thailand isn't in a good spot.

even adgusting for population thailand isn't close to Indonesia. Indonesia has approximately 4 times the number of people. So 4 times the total number of thai deaths would be roughly 8000 whereas Indonesia has about 58,000.

[placeholder]

38 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

I'm not sure why you keep posting a link to a 6-month old story that is about the alpha (UK) variant and has nothing to do with the efficacy of vaccines.

Like Everest. Because it's there.

[jacko45k]

28 minutes ago, Daithi85 said:

Can anyone explain to me how Singapore has had only 35 deaths since this all began??

36 now.....

Not a new report but here....

Mask wearing is mentioned, that will upset some nutcases here!

[candide]

4 hours ago, ICELANDMAN said:

 

Not only with Sinovac you see Israel with the new delta variant all vaccines are ineffective for 40%

 

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

 

It's not what your source states:

"Some 30-40% of Israelis who contracted COVID-19 are infected with the British variant, coronavirus commissioner Prof. Nachman Ash said on Tuesday"

 

It's about the UK variant and It's about people who have been infected.

[Danderman123]

54 minutes ago, greenmonkey said:

more than 44 million have had at leaast one vaccine. But I think you are missing the point...

“the UK with an almost fully vaccinated population just posted 20K+ infections in one day...”

44 million who have had at least one vaccination is not the same as “almost fully vaccinated “, given the UK’s 70 million inhabitants.

 

Do you disagree?

Edited June 30, 2021 by Danderman123

[itsari]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Indonesia is in a mess we certainly don't want Thailand to compete with the same figures.

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1410039489641148420

 

Closer to Indonesia when considering the population difference .

[The Cipher]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Shouldn’t you, we, they, get more info on long Covid then?

 

Probably yes, more research should be done in this direction. The term and severity of what is defined as 'long Covid' also needs to be clarified. If someone has the sniffles for three months and then recovers, that's probably ok. If someone can barely walk from the bed to the potty for 5 years, that's a much bigger issue. If both happen, then incidence rates become important.

 

From the limited reading I did, not enough time has passed to really understand the situation. There also wasn't a clear distinction made on the expected severity of long Covid cases. However, because of the uncertainty, it is a weak point in my case.

 

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

whilst getting more info, perhaps look up antigenic drift and antigenic shift and consider that as a novel virus, our bodies may be particularly ill equipped to cope with Covid mutations. So reducing those may be important.

 

This is my single biggest concern with Covid and the single biggest flaw in my case. There is a non-zero possibility that Covid evolves into something legitimately frightening, and I have no background to assess the likelihood of that that risk.

 

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

apart from the day to day grind of cases, lockdowns, hospitalizations, financial suffering, deaths etc etc, there is a bigger picture to consider and just shrugging off a significant number of deaths that are a statistically small percentage of the population, may leave some larger risks uncovered.

 

math can only take you so far, then a whole new decision making process has to start. 

 

Yes. The point I was trying to make is that I am not convinced that the bigger picture re: the pandemic has been appropriately considered. And I am pretty sure that it hasn't been considered because the questions involved in properly considering it are hard for most people to put their minds to - and even harder to sell to an electorate - look no further than this thread for examples of that.

 

Maybe lockdowns at this point in the pandemic are the right answer. Maybe they aren't. But how much meaningful discourse have you seen in Thailand or in any country that truly attempted to come to an optimal solution to manage Covid in the context of the multifaceted challenges that societies face both now and in the future? Certainly in Canada this did not occur.

 

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

 

I’m still searching for posts that could be construed as “panic mongering”. They seem few and far between though. I’m eliminating any posts that may convey concern about the current and future situation, provided that they deal with reported facts.

 

I've noticed that you are one of the few posters that have attempted to reply to me with a calm and thoughtful posts. I may not always get around to replying, but it's appreciated.

 

But I also suspect that you're too clever not to know what I'm referring to with the term 'panic mongering.' There are a selection of regulars here who do not have the intellectual honesty and/or capacity to just admit that they're terrified of Covid, and that they are reacting emotionally because of that fear.

[pookiki]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yes. They normally are packed and it had taken 3 to 4 hours before. Today it was fairly empty. Wonder why, nope we know that answer.  She was informed she can now do it by mail.

 

I take it you went to the immigration center at Big C -Saphan Mai.  Yes, it is usually packed but many migrant workers use brokers to do their reports. That could be more in play with COVID.  I can't see many migrant workers relying on the mail for their 90 report.  Brokers will just make more money.

[meltonpie]

34 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

“the UK with an almost fully vaccinated population just posted 20K+ infections in one day...”

44 million who have had at least one vaccination is not the same as “almost fully vaccinated “, given the UK’s 70 million inhabitants.

 

Do you disagree?

UK adult population around 52.3 million

Around 85% of these have had first jab

around 62% second jab, so more realistic to say 62% fully vaccinated

rollout to teenagers is expected to happen

Edited June 30, 2021 by meltonpie

[dinsdale]

Not sure if this one will get bumped again but some on here keep talking about people dying from this or that. As I have previously stated more people die from coconut strikes than shark attacks per annum. We all know there are lots of ways people can die and this is factored in to annual death rates for countries. 18 months ago no country on this planet had Covid-19 deaths factored in. Now Covid-19 deaths are seen as excess mortallity.

Edited June 30, 2021 by dinsdale

[The Cipher]

1 hour ago, Macrohistory said:

You talk math while some of us talk elementary logic.  And that logic is this:  You can't cite the death rate being "low" now as proof the virus isn't that dangerous so restrictions should be lifted, because -- and this is the hard part that right-wing libertarians have such a hard time understanding:  Restrictions are in place now.  Remove the restrictions and the death rate soars.  Get it?

 

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

You don’t get it.

 

maybe this will help, pretend you work for the King of France, it’s 1374, and the first cases of Black Death are popping up. Your statistics show that only .003 per cent of the population has succumbed to the Black Death, so severe preventive measures are not required.

 

A year later, a third of the population has died.

 

The takeaway from this example is measuring deaths from a pandemic before it’s over maynot be informative.

 

I actually never directly argued in this thread for decreased restrictions. Although I guess that could be construed as implicit in what I wrote. I'll defend the point anyway.

 

Remove the restrictions and death rate increases. No debate there.

What I would say in response to that is: ok, so what?

 

There is zero evidence that Covid will cause deaths as a percentage of population equivalent to Spanish Flu, let alone the Black Death. Fallout from Covid under various levels of restrictions is reasonably forecastable with statistical modeling (it's almost like this is a big data problem!).

 

You've gotta stop focusing on nominal numbers. Death and case counts are bigger now than in the past because population counts are way bigger. With problems of this scale, the right way to look at the data is with percentages. Five deaths out of a population of ten, waaaaaay worse than five million deaths out of a population of seven billion.

 

So if restrictions are lifted and death rates spike 10x from 0.001 to 0.01 of pop, is that unbearable? I don't know. I also don't believe that you know. I mean, I have my suspicions, but that's the entire point of actually doing the difficult task of optimizing policy for holistic response to the different facets of the crisis at hand. And part of that effort would have to be devoted to educating populations to move past the grade school level thinking of more deaths = the worstest, less deaths = the bestest.

[Petey11]

3 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

Ok. Let's stress test the case and increase India Covid deaths by a factor of 10. We'll pretend that Covid deaths in India are now four million(!)

 

New math:

4,000,000/1,300,000,000 = 0.003.

13,000,000 pop growth - 4,000,000 net additional deaths from Covid = 9,000,000

 

Net pop growth is still ~9,000,000 even applying every single Covid death as a direct offset against the growth figure.

 

And in what other macro situation would a rate under 1% pass the threshold of materiality?

---

Since my notifications are blowing up, I will clarify that I don't think this is the comprehensive way of looking at the issue.

 

However, this ought to be a major consideration when formulating policy responses (although it isn't for various reasons). Covid is not solely a health issue, and the knee-jerk responses that we have taken as societies have had significant other knock-on effects.

 

Yes, every Covid death is a tragedy. And in a vacuum it would be nice to get this number to zero.

 

But there's a lot more that we ought to be considering. For every one Covid death averted, how many people suffer because of the restrictions imposed? Is a transitory period of structurally higher death rates really worth the cost of avoiding it? Does allowing Covid to hit those at risk actually smooth the demographic cliff facing aging societies, and does it actually help in the environmental fight?

 

I'm not out here fronting like I have the answer to those questions. But what irks me is that we didn't even try answering them. We avoided them because the questions are hard, and fear is easy, and pandering to the fearful is a great way for politicians to earn brownie points.

Whilst your calculations may be correct for whole population, it does not factor in that the whole population of India has not had covid. Fatality rates for a disease can only be calculated against the number of people who have caught covid. It would be like calculating fatality rates from cancer to whole population even though not everyone has had cancer.

[greenmonkey]

59 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

“the UK with an almost fully vaccinated population just posted 20K+ infections in one day...”

44 million who have had at least one vaccination is not the same as “almost fully vaccinated “, given the UK’s 70 million inhabitants.

 

Do you disagree?

The point I was making was that even with a much higher proportion of their population vaccinated, the UK still can report 20k+ infections in a day compared to Thailand's 5k in a day with much much fewer people vaccinated. This would suggest that the Thai numbers are way off.... would you disagree?

[FarFlungFalang]

28 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Not sure if this one will get bumped again but some on here keep talking about people dying from this or that. As I have previously stated more people die from coconut strikes than shark attacks per annum. We all know there are lots of ways people can die and this is factored in to annual death rates for countries. 18 months ago no country on this planet had Covid-19 deaths factored in. Now Covid-19 deaths are seen as excess mortallity.

It is widely accepted that 9 million die each year from hunger and hunger related diseases and 3.1 million of those are children so since the covid pandemic started about 18 months ago 13.5 million have died from hunger and hunger related diseases 4.5 million of which are children.So people in this world are more than 3 times as likely to die from hunger and hunger related diseases yet in the last 18 months I have not seen it mentioned once in the main stream media.It has been said that covid restrictions would likely to increase this number.These are very sobering statistics.I wonder why we don't talk about 4.5 million kids dying of hunger and hunger related diseases?Are we really more concerned about our own lives?Is it only when the lives of rich westerners are threatened that it becomes a topic of concern and little to no regard is given to the starving millions?

 

4.5 million children have died from hunger in the past 18 months.I'll just let that sink in. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[Bkk Brian]

21 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

I actually never directly argued in this thread for decreased restrictions. Although I guess that could be construed as implicit in what I wrote. I'll defend the point anyway.

 

Remove the restrictions and death rate increases. No debate there.

What I would say in response to that is: ok, so what?

 

There is zero evidence that Covid will cause deaths as a percentage of population equivalent to Spanish Flu, let alone the Black Death. Fallout from Covid under various levels of restrictions is reasonably forecastable with statistical modeling (it's almost like this is a big data problem!).

 

You've gotta stop focusing on nominal numbers. Death and case counts are bigger now than in the past because population counts are way bigger. With problems of this scale, the right way to look at the data is with percentages. Five deaths out of a population of ten, waaaaaay worse than five million deaths out of a population of seven billion.

 

So if restrictions are lifted and death rates spike 10x from 0.001 to 0.01 of pop, is that unbearable? I don't know. I also don't believe that you know. I mean, I have my suspicions, but that's the entire point of actually doing the difficult task of optimizing policy for holistic response to the different facets of the crisis at hand. And part of that effort would have to be devoted to educating populations to move past the grade school level thinking of more deaths = the worstest, less deaths = the bestest.

Nonsense. Justify your approach in the face of overflowing hospitals and the effects of that on covid deaths and all other seriously ill people who will also die because of a health service collapse

[dinsdale]

16 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

I actually never directly argued in this thread for decreased restrictions. Although I guess that could be construed as implicit in what I wrote. I'll defend the point anyway.

 

Remove the restrictions and death rate increases. No debate there.

What I would say in response to that is: ok, so what?

 

There is zero evidence that Covid will cause deaths as a percentage of population equivalent to Spanish Flu, let alone the Black Death. Fallout from Covid under various levels of restrictions is reasonably forecastable with statistical modeling (it's almost like this is a big data problem!).

 

You've gotta stop focusing on nominal numbers. Death and case counts are bigger now than in the past because population counts are way bigger. With problems of this scale, the right way to look at the data is with percentages. Five deaths out of a population of ten, waaaaaay worse than five million deaths out of a population of seven billion.

 

So if restrictions are lifted and death rates spike 10x from 0.001 to 0.01 of pop, is that unbearable? I don't know. I also don't believe that you know. I mean, I have my suspicions, but that's the entire point of actually doing the difficult task of optimizing policy for holistic response to the different facets of the crisis at hand. And part of that effort would have to be devoted to educating populations to move past the grade school level thinking of more deaths = the worstest, less deaths = the bestest.

Well this is just rediculous. You are comparing a 1918 pandemic to now. 122/23 years later. Well I will go with your flawed arguement but let me turn it around. What do you think the death toll would have been 122/23 years ago if it wasn't the Spanish Flu but Sars-cov-2. Stupid comparision that completely ignores technological and medical advances over more than a century. 

[2 is 1]

Its really spread now in provinces. Isaan start to look very bad!

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by 2 is 1