COVID-19 in Thailand expected to worsen next week, CCSA says

[connda]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yea better tell the experts over at WHO as well eh, because you obviously know better than them or other credible studies.

 

Can people without symptoms transmit the virus?

Yes, infected people can transmit the virus both when they have symptoms and when they don’t have symptoms. This is why it is important that all people who are infected are identified by testing, isolated, and, depending on the severity of their disease, receive medical care.  Even people confirmed to have COVID-19 but who do not have symptoms should be isolated to limit their contact with others.  These measures break chains of transmission.

 

https://www.who.int/vietnam/news/detail/14-07-2020-q-a-how-is-covid-19-transmitted

Here's the quote:
"Yes, infected people can transmit the virus both when they have symptoms and when they don’t have symptoms."  However, not links or attribution to any scientific study backing that assertion.  So, hearsay.
They go on...

I want hard science and links to the studies, most of which I'm capable of reading.  And I've yet to see a statistically significant study proving asymptomatic transmission of Covid or for that matter, any virus.  Symptoms correspond with viral load and viral load corresponds to transmission.  You can't have one without the other.
if you want to "believe the experts" feel free.  I'm not that gullible. If you have a study from a scientific journal proving asymptomatic transmission then link it so I can have a look.  I'll change my opinion.  Don't link press releases from the WHO.  They are a waste of my time. 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, connda said:

I want hard science and links to the studies, most of which I'm capable of reading.  And I've yet to see a statistically significant study proving asymptomatic transmission of Covid or for that matter, any virus.  Symptoms correspond with viral load and viral load corresponds to transmission.  You can't have one without the other.
if you want to "believe the experts" feel free.  I'm not that gullible. If you have a study from a scientific journal proving asymptomatic transmission then link it so I can have a look.  I'll change my opinion.  Don't link press releases from the WHO.  They are a waste of my time. 

I feel no matter what studies are thrown at you, you'll still remain convinced you're right, however here's one conducted by the US CDC.

 

Summary in an article is here: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210111/Over-half-of-COVID-19-cases-are-spread-by-asymptomatic-carriers-CDC-study-finds.aspx

 

Study is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

 

Of course you'll cherry pick some caveats and will continue to do so until it goes round in circles. 

 

Perhaps if you are looking for real world study, have a two week stay in a field hospital full of asymptomatic covid patients and see if you catch it or not.

[connda]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I feel no matter what studies are thrown at you, you'll still remain convinced you're right, however here's one conducted by the US CDC.

 

Summary in an article is here: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210111/Over-half-of-COVID-19-cases-are-spread-by-asymptomatic-carriers-CDC-study-finds.aspx

 

Study is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

 

Of course you'll cherry pick some caveats and will continue to do so until it goes round in circles. 

 

Perhaps if you are looking for real world study, have a two week stay in a field hospital full of asymptomatic covid patients and see if you catch it or not.

The CDC link points to nothing but the CDC site.

Here's the JAMA article:
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determined that this decision analytical study, which involved no enrollment of human subjects."
This was a statistical modelling study.  Garbage In = Garbage Out.  A model is based an unproven assumptions.  It's not "proof" of anything.

I still hold to this point - I have not seen a standardized, controlled laboratory study that significantly proves asymptomatic transmission.  When I see one, can analyse it, and find there actually IS asymptomatic transmission - then I'll change my tune.  Until then?  It's fear porn for the masses.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, connda said:

The CDC link points to nothing but the CDC site.

Here's the JAMA article:
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determined that this decision analytical study, which involved no enrollment of human subjects."
This was a statistical modelling study.  Garbage In = Garbage Out.  A model is based an unproven assumptions.  It's not "proof" of anything.

I still hold to this point - I have not seen a standardized, controlled laboratory study that significantly proves asymptomatic transmission.  When I see one, can analyse it, and find there actually IS asymptomatic transmission - then I'll change my tune.  Until then?  It's fear porn for the masses.

Fear porn for the masses. Yes of course. Similar to the warnings of airbourne transmission until it was proven

Edited July 2, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[BKKTRAVELER]

If they turned around each double row, it would be feet against feet, just saying...

[Puwa]

2 hours ago, connda said:

I want hard science and links to the studies, most of which I'm capable of reading.  

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769235

[Soikhaonoiken]

How can this guy say its going to get worse next week.... Looked into his crystal ball no doubt,... Can he predict my lottery numbers for next week please..... 

[Rampant Rabbit]

7 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

predicts an increase in the rate of new COVID-19 infections next week, 

No flies on them then:-0 right  on the ball.

[ukrules]

We ain't seen nothing yet.

[Artisi]

10 hours ago, madmitch said:

Is that one of the makeshift field hospitals in the picture.

 

If so, how can they force people to stay in such a place?

Probably far better than a construction camp or a over crowded slum, but certainly not to the standard of your flash condo with all the bells,  whistles and modern conveniences. 

[Artisi]

8 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

we want to speed up, but where are the vaccines???

Does anyone know? Seem that even those supposedly in charge don't know either.... 

[DrJack54]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

We ain't seen nothing yet.

Bachman Turner Overdrive would agree! 

 BTW today's numbers 6230 new cases. Death 41.

[grandpa]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

so vaccinations must be accelerated.

If only Farangs were included in this!  For all the Government rhetoric, each time I try to register, I am told that I will have to wait until after Thais have been fully vaccinated!  That was initially August, then October, now probably 2022, and yet I am one of those in the vulnerable group.  Over 70, with 3 of the underlying health problems in the list!

[hotchilli]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Gen. Nattaphon Narkphanich, secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC) and director of the operations centre of the CCSA, said today (Friday) that the CCSA predicts an increase in the rate of new COVID-19 infections next week, so vaccinations must be accelerated.

I see what they mean by a shortage of beds, now it's a camping mattress on the floor.

Must be hitting hard now.

[sezze]

13 hours ago, connda said:

Here's the quote:
"Yes, infected people can transmit the virus both when they have symptoms and when they don’t have symptoms."  However, not links or attribution to any scientific study backing that assertion.  So, hearsay.
They go on...

I want hard science and links to the studies, most of which I'm capable of reading.  And I've yet to see a statistically significant study proving asymptomatic transmission of Covid or for that matter, any virus.  Symptoms correspond with viral load and viral load corresponds to transmission.  You can't have one without the other.
if you want to "believe the experts" feel free.  I'm not that gullible. If you have a study from a scientific journal proving asymptomatic transmission then link it so I can have a look.  I'll change my opinion.  Don't link press releases from the WHO.  They are a waste of my time. 

IMHO , and what i've read about it , you are about right . However , having no symptoms , can also mean no symptoms YET . Most people do got very mild symptoms , which can also be related to just a bad day , not enough sleep ... not knowing they do have Covid , or any other for that matter . They aren't asymptomatic , but neither are they symptomatic .

Also , i have read about other diseases like HIV , which the most transmission is in the 1st 2 weeks after being infected , before the blood got any antibodies , spreading very rapid in the blood before any symptoms or tests are possible .

So , i am no specialist , and i do say you are right , up to a certain lvl , in which i believe the experts more . It is also difficult to test imho , since difficult to find a asymptomatic case and directly related to a symptomatic case which they found being positive , who did get it 1st and who was infected by who ?

[unblocktheplanet]

18 hours ago, NicholasTH said:

Correct because Thais don't like to follow rules .. 

Correct because those who call themselves Thai leaders don't have rules!

[RobU]

17 hours ago, connda said:

That's the silliest thing I've hear.  I went through boot-camp packed with bunk-bed with feet pointing at heads.  In American culture and ain't no thing.

If the mats are socially distanced at 2 meters between all mats, nobody's feet are in anybody's face.  This issue here is totally a Thai cultural construct.  They don't want feet pointed at their head from over 6 feet away.  There are literally afraid the invisible foot cooties with damage the sanctity of their head aura through the air-gap.  So instead, they put peoples heads together so they can easily pass the viruses between breathing, hacking, and coughing patients.  Really?  What the.....
What they are doing in negligent, and imho criminally negligent. They are going to kill people due to superstition.

So when the beds are in this configuration why don't they have the beds arranged so that the feet are closest together not the heads (ie heads on the outside not feet). Essentially that means that the heads are more than 2 metres apart when laid down after all covid is transmitted via the mouth and nose not through the skin of the feet. The allyway between beds is 2 metres wide then the debate regarding feet near heads becomes moot

[RobU]

15 hours ago, BKKTRAVELER said:

If they turned around each double row, it would be feet against feet, just saying...

I agree You said it better than me

[Boedog]

They need to make the  Sandbox bigger in Phuket as even though Covid cases in Thailand are now at record daily levels since Covid began Phuket is safe if you can beltway Amazing Thailand 

[connda]

18 hours ago, Puwa said:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769235

This study does not claim to "prove" asymptomatic transmission.  It left unanswered questions which the researcher even pointed out in there paper regarding transmission.  The limits of their study suggested via comparison of PCR cycle counts was that the viral load of asymptomic and symtomatic may be similar.

Here's the limitations of projecting that to mean that asymptomatic patients are as equally as infectious - this is quoted from the study:
"Little is known about the infectiveness of asymptomatic patients. Our findings, given a recent report of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from an asymptomatic person to 4 family members,⁸ nevertheless offer biological plausibility to such reports of transmission by asymptomatic people. A previous study⁹ analyzing a small number of patients also reported that viral load of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients was as high as that of symptomatic patients. Although the high viral load we observed in asymptomatic patients raises a distinct possibility of a risk for transmission, our study was not designed to determine this. In this study, Ct values of env genes from LRT specimens in asymptomatic patients tended to decrease more gradually than those of symptomatic patients. It appears that the env target signal was aberrant owing to fragmented or degraded genomes. The genetic material of dead viral particles remaining within epithelial cells can be detected as epithelial cells are desquamated.¹⁰ In a recent study, viral shedding from sputum has been shown to extend beyond symptom duration.¹¹
It is important to note that detection of viral RNA does not equate infectious virus being present and transmissible. For a better understanding of the viral shedding and potential transmissibility of asymptomatic infection, large rigorous epidemiologic and experimental studies are needed."

And that bottom paragraph is what I've been saying kids.  There are no studies currently available that conclusively show transmissigility and quantitative viral shedding in asymptomatic infections."

Show me the studies when they are published.  They ain't published yet. 
Just use some common sense on this.  Up until March 2020, if you were attempting to avoid the season flu, how would you do that.  By avoiding symptomatic, sick people who are coughing and sneezing and spreading contaminated droplets in the air.  I'd avoid them too.  In fact, sick people like that should be wearing masks.
Who didn't you avoid?  People with no symptoms. 
The mechanics of transmission involve aerosolizing the virus in water droplets expelled from the body, in other word, via symptoms like coughing and sneezing. 
So I'm very interested, really.  If asymptomatic carriers can spread SARS-coV-2 exactly like symptomatic carriers, then I'd really like to know the mechanics that create that transmission vector. 

Anyway, enough on this topic.  The studies don't currently exist. Trust me.  I'm looking for them.  Thanks for the article link.  I'll bookmark that one.  it exemplifies exactly what I've been saying.
 

Edited July 3, 2021 by connda

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, connda said:

This study does not claim to "prove" asymptomatic transmission.  It left unanswered questions which the researcher even pointed out in there paper regarding transmission.  The limits of their study suggested via comparison of PCR cycle counts was that the viral load of asymptomic and symtomatic may be similar.

Here's the limitations of projecting that to mean that asymptomatic patients are as equally as infectious - this is quoted from the study:
"Little is known about the infectiveness of asymptomatic patients. Our findings, given a recent report of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from an asymptomatic person to 4 family members,⁸ nevertheless offer biological plausibility to such reports of transmission by asymptomatic people. A previous study⁹ analyzing a small number of patients also reported that viral load of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients was as high as that of symptomatic patients. Although the high viral load we observed in asymptomatic patients raises a distinct possibility of a risk for transmission, our study was not designed to determine this. In this study, Ct values of env genes from LRT specimens in asymptomatic patients tended to decrease more gradually than those of symptomatic patients. It appears that the env target signal was aberrant owing to fragmented or degraded genomes. The genetic material of dead viral particles remaining within epithelial cells can be detected as epithelial cells are desquamated.¹⁰ In a recent study, viral shedding from sputum has been shown to extend beyond symptom duration.¹¹
It is important to note that detection of viral RNA does not equate infectious virus being present and transmissible. For a better understanding of the viral shedding and potential transmissibility of asymptomatic infection, large rigorous epidemiologic and experimental studies are needed."

And that bottom paragraph is what I've been saying kids.  There are no studies currently available that conclusively show transmissigility and quantitative viral shedding in asymptomatic infections."

Show me the studies when they are published.  They ain't published yet. 
Just use some common sense on this.  Up until March 2020, if you were attempting to avoid the season flu, how would you do that.  By avoiding symptomatic, sick people who are coughing and sneezing and spreading contaminated droplets in the air.  I'd avoid them too.  In fact, sick people like that should be wearing masks.
Who didn't you avoid?  People with no symptoms. 
The mechanics of transmission involve aerosolizing the virus in water droplets expelled from the body, in other word, via symptoms like coughing and sneezing. 
So I'm very interested, really.  If asymptomatic carriers can spread SARS-coV-2 exactly like symptomatic carriers, then I'd really like to know the mechanics that create that transmission vector. 

Anyway, enough on this topic.  The studies don't currently exist. Trust me.  I'm looking for them.
 

Trust me you will never find one as there will always be a get out clause for you.

[connda]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Trust me you will never find one as there will always be a get out clause for you.

Dude.  Read the study for yourself if you have the intellect to understand it.  I just pointed out what the study said. 
It's not 'about me" partner.  The 'science' is right there slapping you in the face if you can read it.  You probably can't read it is my guess. 
Clinical Course and Molecular Viral Shedding Among Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Community Treatment Center in the Republic of Korea

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, connda said:

Dude.  Read the study for yourself if you have the intellect to understand it.  I just pointed out what the study said. 
It's not 'about me" partner.  The 'science' is right there slapping you in the face if you can read it.  You probably can't read it is my guess. 
Clinical Course and Molecular Viral Shedding Among Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Community Treatment Center in the Republic of Korea

????????congratulations on such an imature response lad

[Stargeezr]

Hey it is a Thai field hospital, as a lot of them are used to sleeping on Bamboo mats.  What are you expats

going on about, as you would never have to sleep there.  You would be sent to a better more expensive hospital 

where you can sleep on a comfy bed, er,  Credit card please....   This is Thailand and we all know that it is a typical

Asian country.  Haven't any of you expats figured this out yet?  Next story please.  and Thanks..

Geezer

[Stargeezr]

Another thing I noticed is that it appears to be a place that is getting set up, so who

really knows what the final lay out will look like?

Geezer

[cyril sneer]

they should have accepted Pfizer when offered it 3 times 

[herfiehandbag]

On 7/2/2021 at 8:09 PM, Dogmatix said:

Why do they think cases would stabilise at 10,000 a day? 

Possibly whatever lashed up computer programme they are using to create these predictions doesn't go beyond 10,000...

[Karma80]

On 7/3/2021 at 2:06 AM, Soikhaonoiken said:

How can this guy say its going to get worse next week.... Looked into his crystal ball no doubt,... Can he predict my lottery numbers for next week please..... 

 

He probably knows the real numbers they have been suppressing by a lack of testing. A policy which means you end up sleeping on the floor of non air conditioned stadium for 14 days doesn't exactly encourage people to step forward. The poorest, families would starve without income if you were incarcerated, so run from testing.

 

But now with pictures of people sleeping in the road outside hospitals being documented, it's more a case of next week our lies become difficult to hide.

[Guderian]

 

Blimey, that's rough, it looks like Auntin and Prayut have sold the cardboard box beds for their own personal gain, as well as half the vaccines received, lol!