Thailand reports 6,519 new COVID-19 cases, 54 more deaths

[morrobay]

22 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

These numbers for Chonburi follow exactly the same pattern as Bangkok before it became too out of control and they couldny keep reported numbers low any longer...the numbers in Chonburi would be 10x of those reported (as a bare minimum.

Well at least there does not seem to be any cross over from the Thai community to the foreigner community. Something to be said for foreigners in Pattaya who are not inclined at all to assimilate with the local community. (in general)https://www.newsdirectory3.com/chonburi-is-not-faint-262-infected-5-medical-personnel-3-more-dead/

[robblok]

34 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

An anecdote is useful, but not proof of anything other than maybe a handful of cases were undercounted.

 

Before you erupt, I am not saying there probably isn’t an undercount, I am just explaining that anecdotes aren’t evidence.

This guy is a medical professional. So its not an anecdote its proof. Its not proof of how many but if he finds a few just in his hospital its normal that it will be the same on a larger scale.

 

And no an anecdote like you say is not conclusive proof as you need a wide screening. But if you got a respected medical professional saying this then there is good cause to do a bigger screening. However that wont happen. So we have to draw our own conclusions. I think the conclusion of this being the case in far more deaths is more likely then  not dont you agree.

[robblok]

1 minute ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Wen bars open ser?

There are plenty of underground bars open. 

[AndyFoxy]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I can assure you he could have done it in half the time with all the corrections and proof reading I did.

555....Good call mate. 

 

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Your kidding right. I would not even attend a hospital if I was feeling ill.

Thai would perhaps attend as last resort. 

 

 

Many clamour there on rumours of vaccination registration......

Others would need to be a death's door. 

[rabas]

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Do you think that hospital admissions numbers have no relationship with reality?

 

or, are they just an artifact?

 

If beds are limited, or testing capacity is limited, both of which are now true, then recorded numbers will not grow with the real numbers. It is worse than the numbers show. And getting worser. Even an Issan rice farmer knows that.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by rabas

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Maybe not but what is missing is how many are turned away quite possibly being contagious to aid in the spread of the virus.

If you assume that the number of admissions is accurate (to the extent that beds are available), then that number in itself is useful in understanding the progress of the epidemic. If, for example, the number dropped dramatically for a sustained period, you would know the epidemic is lessening.

 

Currently, the number of available beds is limited to those available due to discharges and newly opened beds. If admissions fill those slots, then we know total case numbers are probably limited by available beds, and the real numbers would be higher.

[DrJack54]

22 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

assumed at the outset that the government effort would be pathetic, so I got off my ass and flew back to the US to get vaccinated. And came back through quarantine

So you obtained vaccination by returning to USA.

Then toss in baiting comment of "I got off my ass and l flew back to US to get vaccinated" implying that those that did not or could not do that are apathetic.

 

Very unpleasant individual.

Perhaps just an artifact or possibly true form.

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

If beds are limited, or testing capacity is limited, both of which are now true, then recorded numbers will not grow with the real numbers. It is worse than the numbers show. And getting worser. Even an Issan rice farmer knows that.

 

The recorded numbers indeed may imply that the real numbers are higher. Here’s a spoiler: that is true in virtually every country, even those that test a lot.

[JonnyF]

53 minutes ago, smedly said:

and still they refuse to stop interprovincial travel knowing fool well it will spread the pandemic far and wide - I can only conclude that is their intention - you would need to be a total idiot not to see this

A few Thais I've spoken to have said that the intention is to allow people to get out of Bangkok so that C19 positive people can utilize medical facilities in other provinces that are not under as much strain. 

 

Bangkok hospitals are at breaking point, so they don't want to lock down BKK and prevent travel because it will exasperate the problem in the capital.

 

They are relying on sick people reporting to hospital as soon as they arrive in their province of course, which won't happen.

 

I am not saying this is a good idea or even that this is the reason, but at least 3 Thais have told me the same thing. So maybe it IS their intention? Who knows at this point. The government seems to be clutching at straws.

[wensiensheng]

39 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I didn’t admit I was wrong. 
 

There are some days where there are spikes because the labs process a backlog of cases. You can tell because a higher percentage of new cases are from lab tests and not hospital admissions.

 

More to the point, it is much more useful to try to understand the progress of the epidemic than to try to make debating points on an Internet forum. At this point, simply repeating that the government is not handling this well, and that the epidemic is going to get worse is not useful. What is useful is monitoring the progress to see if it is time to stock up on supplies for a couple of weeks, or leave the country, or head for the hills.

The flaw in your argument is that there are many factors that effect the daily numbers, not just the two you mention.
 

I know you watch those two every day and use them to reach a conclusion on the probable course of the virus. But there are other factors, every single day that can push numbers up or down.

 

in reality, this is a virus enjoying community spread. The number of cases goes up, whether they are counted, or not. Government policy and population behavior can influence the rate of spread, but if those are unchanged, the virus spreads until sufficient population has been infected to reduce the number of hosts available, to a level that slows virus growth.

 

I see what you are saying, but it’s just too simplistic a metric and also backward looking. If you’re trying to decide whether to stock up supplies, or head for the hills, looking at yesterday’s numbers to reach a decision, it means that the horse has bolted.

 

I have no idea if hospital admissions are down today, but if they are, I personally think it means nothing. The virus hasn’t changed in the last 24 hours, the government did nothing in the last 24 hours, people didn’t change in the last 24 hours.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Our World in Data says Thailand is in the top 10 countries in the world based on its increase in new daily COVID cases since the start of July, and ranks even higher based on total COVID case growth rate since the start of the month.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, DrJack54 said:

So you obtained vaccination by returning to USA.

Then toss in baiting comment of "I got off my ass and l flew back to US to get vaccinated" implying that those that did not or could not do that are apathetic.

 

Very unpleasant individual.

Perhaps just an artifact or possibly true form.

There is a bit of a contradiction between “the government handling of the epidemic is so bad we are all going to die” and “it’s inconvenient for me to leave Thailand to get vaccinated “.

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Do you think that hospital admissions numbers have no relationship with reality?

 

or, are they just an artifact?

I think what these reports say have no relationship with what is happening.Did you not read the post about the Thai doctor saying the number of deaths is higher than what is being reported because they are not swabbing all the dead people that are dying in their homes?Do you believe the hospital admission numbers?

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The recorded numbers indeed may imply that the real numbers are higher. Here’s a spoiler: that is true in virtually every country, even those that test a lot.

Why don’t you just say that you agree with him?

 

Because that’s what you did, just mixed it in with a lot of bs about other countries.

[rabas]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The recorded numbers indeed may imply that the real numbers are higher. Here’s a spoiler: that is true in virtually every country, even those that test a lot.

 

You deflect. Thailand hit its testing limits back in May and Hospitals are now turning people away.  You can't say that is quantifiably the same as all countries.  Numbers matter.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by rabas

[Danderman123]

12 minutes ago, robblok said:

This guy is a medical professional. So its not an anecdote its proof. Its not proof of how many but if he finds a few just in his hospital its normal that it will be the same on a larger scale.

 

And no an anecdote like you say is not conclusive proof as you need a wide screening. But if you got a respected medical professional saying this then there is good cause to do a bigger screening. However that wont happen. So we have to draw our own conclusions. I think the conclusion of this being the case in far more deaths is more likely then  not dont you agree.

It’s clear the number of Covid deaths is undercounted. But this doctor’s story doesn’t tell you the scope of the undercount.

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

No, I distinctly remember you saying the Grubbyment had it under control and it would end soon and that to say otherwise was to earn one the title of doomsayer!

Yes I do remember that to, an indication was made that the first high number was just and artifact and that yes we had peaked back when the government doctor said we had, and that we could be seeing the numbers decline soon.  However, that never happened, it even was brought up about random testing needing to be done, but then that was also spun as proactive testing.  Either way the assertion that we were on the backside was wrong, there was no true artifact except for the massive prison numbers dump on one day that put us over 9k for that day.  However, the past is the past, and up is where it appears to be going, but then what do I know I have been classified as a doomsayer, a scare monger, a doom monger and then someone who was dismissed as having a wrong view because dead bodies and full hospitals would be all over social media.  Looks like what those naysayers would never happen and what us doomsayers said would possibly occur is happening, but then where are the others that criticized the postings, where have they gone too.......  

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

 

You deflect. Thailand hit its testing limits back in May and Hospitals are now turning people away.  You can't say that is quantifiably the same as all counties.  Numbers matter.

And yet, estimates are that the US undercounted infections by millions, as an example.

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Why don’t you just say that you agree with him?

 

Because that’s what you did, just mixed it in with a lot of bs about other countries.

As I have said many times, there isn’t enough testing, the real numbers are higher, anything more I need to repeat?

[DrJack54]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

There is a bit of a contradiction between “the government handling of the epidemic is so bad we are all going to die"

Are you typing this stuff believing it or is it just a game.

The government handling of vaccine procurement has and will cost lives. Along with many other decisions such as Song Kran has cost lives and this is all down to mismanagement from government.

 

Of course "we are all going to die" is just more nonsense posting from yourself.

 

Time to ignore. Should of done it some time ago.

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Our World in Data says Thailand is in the top 10 countries in the world based on its increase in new daily COVID cases since the start of July, and ranks even higher based on total COVID case growth rate since the start of the month.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

That's a sad epitaph for this government and a dose of reality they have earned themselves unfortunately.   

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

And yet, estimates are that the US undercounted infections by millions, as an example.

Still deflecting, we are talking about Thailand, who gives a feces about anywhere else now.  What happened happened, and what is happening here is happening now!

[BestB]

Maybe government officials took the hypothetical 10000 per day as a challenge not a warning as they seem to be doing nothing useful to curb it.

 

First close down construction camps, a week later reopen , interprovincial travel allowed, but limit alcohol sales time . 
 

Markets pop up as a source but keep all markets open.unless found cases , naturally people will not go to market around the corner .

 

so what’s next ? Numbers growing into 3rd month 

[Danderman123]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

No, I distinctly remember you saying the Grubbyment had it under control and it would end soon and that to say otherwise was to earn one the title of doomsayer!

Let’s recap the bidding.

 

Back when the numbers were declining or flat, and testing showed clusters forming, I said IF the government can address those clusters, we might be out of the woods. 

[wensiensheng]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As I have said many times, there isn’t enough testing, the real numbers are higher, anything more I need to repeat?

Not repeat, for the first time say “I agree with you”.

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

And yet, estimates are that the US undercounted infections by millions, as an example.

 

Again you deflect with another number unrelated to the situation in Thailand. There is very little similarity between the US and Thailand. If you have a premise then back it with data and reasoning.

 

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It’s clear the number of Covid deaths is undercounted. But this doctor’s story doesn’t tell you the scope of the undercount.

Thats wrong, it tells you the scope of the undercount in his catchment area in Bangkok and he's stated its around 4 deaths per day at the very least that are under counted with his evidence of the pcr tests to prove his point.

 

Thats just one hospital.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[FarFlungFalang]

10 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The government seems to be clutching at straws.

It's not straw at which they clutch because straws don't have any value.

[Danderman123]

Just now, rabas said:

 

Again you deflect with another number unrelated to the situation in Thailand. There is very little similarity between the US and Thailand. If you have a premise then back it with data and reasoning.

 

Okay. Let’s pretend no other country has Covid.

 

Thailand does not test enough. There are many undetected Covid positive individuals walking around.

 

okay?