Thailand reports new daily record of 9,276 COVID-19 cases, 72 more deaths

[gearbox]

18 minutes ago, Rhacsyn said:

Current vaccination numbers for Phuket are in the link in the posts just above. 85% one jab, 67% two jabs

Clearly Phuket is the place to be in Thailand these days...Samui is not far behind.

Edited July 9, 2021 by gearbox

[anchadian]

Complete lack of social distancing springs to mind:

 

Photo Essay: Thais wait in long queues to get Covid tested

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29641/photo-essay-thais-wait-in-long-queues-to-get-covid-tested/

[2 is 1]

This is goverment solution! After 20k infected / day maybe they add one more!

 

 

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Interesting table. 

 

Possibly a mute point, but given the massive exodus from Phuket in June-2020 (I read estimates that about 15% of the population left last year as soon as the April/May-2020 lockdown was lifted), I doubt 547,584 is Phuket's population. 

 

I don't think anyone knows Phuket's population at present but the figure being used of 466,587 in the official police web site may be more accurate than the 547,584 figure.  

 

Of course, whichever population figure one uses, will greatly affect the % vaccinated calculations.

Thanks for all the Phuket info. It's probably too much to expect, but do you know of any figures about what's the percentage of critical care beds in Phuket that are currently occupied?

[anchadian]

Out of 8,975 local cases, most in

Bangkok - 3,116 <— NEW HIGH

Samut Sakhon - 544

Samut Prakan - 437

Lopburi - 341

Chonburi - 317

Ayutthaya - 265

Chachoengsao - 243

Nonthaburi - 236

Pattani - 214

Nakhon Pathom - 211

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413382053198921729

 

[Falcon]

4 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:Assuming 30,000 tests per day then you could be looking at a 30% infection rate...worse is that could easily translate to 20% across the entire population.

This figure is based on daily testing of only 20,000 people a day so, 10,000 per day equates to 1 in 2 people so, given that figure, it could mean that there are up to half of the people in the country that are infected right now….

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Complete lack of social distancing springs to mind:

 

Photo Essay: Thais wait in long queues to get Covid tested

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29641/photo-essay-thais-wait-in-long-queues-to-get-covid-tested/

Even if you hadn't been infected before, by the time you actually get tested, you may test positive.

[oldcpu]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, those numbers seem pretty impressive. I don't care much about number of infections, but mortality figures are a lot harder to fudge. So it could be that vaccinations with Coronavac do provide a significant degree of protection. I do recognize that some of the vaccinations were done with AZ, but since the program started in April, I'm guessing that those who are vaccinated mostly got the Sinovac.

I agree the mortality figures are a helpful indicator (as sad as it is to type that).  I've read elsewhere the Phuket hospitals are not being swamped by new cases, unlike elsewhere in Thailand, and that is also useful information.

 

This is my 'unofficial' plot of the Phuket police web site reported new cases ... where (1) its an unofficial plot, and (2) likely there are more cases not reported, as likely some locals are afraid to be tested, as the economic implications of a minimum of 2 weeks or more in isolation, could be very serious to them. 

 

Given yesterday was 7 new cases, I'm concerned we could be seeing the start of an upward trend - but its very very difficult to say ....

 

 

[candide]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Random is random. ONE infected person could be the host of the virus molecule that mutates into a virulent form. Also, Delta may have first arisen someplace else, but if the mutation that makes Delta Delta is fairly simple, Delta can arise independently anywhere at any time. It need not have been imported.

 

Similarly, it is even possible Delta originated in Thailand and was carried to India by a traveler, where it quickly took hold because of India's crowded living conditions and less use of masks (at the time).

 

When all is said and done regarding Covid, I am going to guess that Thailand's initial 'success' in dealing with it---as the 2nd country to experience it after China---will prove to be a kind of general immunity owing to quite similar viruses coming to Thailand from China over the years. That virus probably circulated widely throughout the Thai population, but the natural immunity saved the country until the inevitable mutations either occurred locally, or came in via travelers. Thais did not have immunity to the mutations, hence the current problem.

A general initial immunity from previous CVs could be a valid explanation for the low infection rate last year.

However, the CVs related to Covid-19 may well originate from SEA rather than from China (note to readers: I am talking about "related" viruses, not the current Covid-19 which is likely born in China).

"The new data thus validates the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2-like viruses are present mostly in Southeast Asia, while SARS-CoV-like viruses are dominant in China."

https://theconversation.com/in-2010-a-virus-similar-to-sars-cov-2-was-already-present-in-cambodia-154491

 

"Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21240-1

 

[wensiensheng]

I’m a bit late posting this, I meant to look it up some time back.

 

the Covid positive “tourist” in Phuket was from UAE. Apparently beta is the most prevalent strain in UAE, followed by Delta, then Alpha.

 

I hope he was isolated in time. Beta we REALLY don’t need.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiP0O7MrdXxAhWH4zgGHRVfBxgQFjABegQIAxAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.khaleejtimes.com%2Fcoronavirus-pandemic%2Fcovid-in-uae-variants-are-causing-rise-in-infections&usg=AOvVaw2cf9jPnG7Fk3eMM2D79-5A

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

28 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

That's probably still true, but on the down side of a tsunami wave.

In a tsunami the water first recedes enticing people to wonder what's happening then the tsunami hits with unstoppable force and magnitude causing chaos, doom and gloom.

[wensiensheng]

8 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

I agree the mortality figures are a helpful indicator (as sad as it is to type that).  I've read elsewhere the Phuket hospitals are not being swamped by new cases, unlike elsewhere in Thailand, and that is also useful information.

 

This is my 'unofficial' plot of the Phuket police web site reported new cases ... where (1) its an unofficial plot, and (2) likely there are more cases not reported, as likely some locals are afraid to be tested, as the economic implications of a minimum of 2 weeks or more in isolation, could be very serious to them. 

 

Given yesterday was 7 new cases, I'm concerned we could be seeing the start of an upward trend - but its very very difficult to say ....

 

 

I noticed that the past few days have seen more than the normal 1 or 2 cases usually recorded over the last few weeks. 7 is a bit of a jump up again. Fingers crossed it’s a one off.

Edited July 9, 2021 by wensiensheng

[The Cipher]

40 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

However in the lack of more testing - should one simply turn a blind eye to the new case counts, even if the case counts are not as accurate as we think is needed ?  

 

I definitely think the case counts is NOT a red herring (despite more tests being needed). 

I can sorta agree with this. Nominal case counts at this point are barely helpful. But. What would be more helpful is data on positive test rates. For example if capacity testing is only 10 per day, what percentage of the 10 people tested were positive two weeks ago, last week, this week, etc.

 

That'd give a better indication on extent and velocity of community spread. But I'm not sure if they publish that data or not.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

Hey! Newbie here. Just popped in to ask if it's the apocalypse yet. I keep reading on here that it'll happen but am just wondering how I'll know when it has arrived. Thanks!

For the 12 tourist trapped in the Phuket Sandtrap it's the "Apocalypse Now"

[anchadian]

 

The daily @oc_ccsa briefing normally scheduled at 12.30pm has not taken place yet and we don’t at what time it’ll be rescheduled. In any case, NO new #COVID19 measures have been confirmed yet. We’ll have to wait for an official announcement later today.

https://twitter.com/SaksithCNA/status/1413384888640708613

 

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Falcon said:

This figure is based on daily testing of only 20,000 people a day so, 10,000 per day equates to 1 in 2 people so, given that figure, it could mean that there are up to half of the people in the country that are infected right now….

If up to half of the people in the country were now infected that would actually be great news. It would also be unprecedented for any pandemic.

[placeholder]

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

For the 12 tourist trapped in the Phuket Sandtrap it's the "Apocalypse Now"

Yes. Brutally confined to a hotel or tourist resort. You should make a proposal out of this and pitch it to the folks in Hollywood.

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

For the 12 tourist trapped in the Phuket Sandtrap it's the "Apocalypse Now"

Especially since it’s hammering down with rain in Phuket  atm.

[Phuketshrew]

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

20 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Complete lack of social distancing springs to mind:

 

Photo Essay: Thais wait in long queues to get Covid tested

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29641/photo-essay-thais-wait-in-long-queues-to-get-covid-tested/

Expand  

Even if you hadn't been infected before, by the time you actually get tested, you may test positive.

I guess it's the same principle as when driving. If you leave a safe distance in front of you to the next vehicle then some Somchai is going to cut in and take that space.

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If up to half of the people in the country were now infected that would actually be great news. It would also be unprecedented for any pandemic.

Yes, if it were the case, herd immunity here we come.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, The Cipher said:

I can sorta agree with this. Nominal case counts at this point are barely helpful. But. What would be more helpful is data on positive test rates. For example if capacity testing is only 10 per day, what percentage of the 10 people tested were positive two weeks ago, last week, this week, etc.

 

That'd give a better indication on extent and velocity of community spread. But I'm not sure if they publish that data or not.

A report by one hospital director in Bangkok a few days ago said about 50% of all walkins to his hospital tested positive.

Regards active testing in Bangkok last published figure eas 11.34% but that was more than a week ago.

[Adelphi]

Like many others I recently returned to my home country due to the rising Covid infections and the remote possibility of getting vaccinated in Thailand.  Those left in Thailand might want to consider their position.  It seems unlikely in the extreme that the Government can sort this problem.   You might want to think of leaving very soon as there is a clear risk that not too far in the future there could be a stamped for the exits and the planes would book out very fast.  Thailand then would also likely to be put on other countries"red lists".   I can't see me getting back to Thailand this year due to the risk of living with a failing health system.   I will miss Thailand very much and will return when it is safe to do so and the country has opened up again. For those of you staying on good luck.

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

I can sorta agree with this. Nominal case counts at this point are barely helpful. But. What would be more helpful is data on positive test rates. For example if capacity testing is only 10 per day, what percentage of the 10 people tested were positive two weeks ago, last week, this week, etc.

 

That'd give a better indication on extent and velocity of community spread. But I'm not sure if they publish that data or not.

You can find it here but when the stuff is hitting the fan in Thailand they pause and Thailand hasn't been updated since June 19th.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#how-many-tests-are-performed-each-day

Edited July 9, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[Surelynot]

Just now, wensiensheng said:

Especially since it’s hammering down with rain in Phuket  atm.

Don't forget the rain can wash the virus away....remember the Songkran 2020 promises?

[The Cipher]

39 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Hey, THATS what I posted yesterday. Has the world stopped revolving? How come we are in agreement? 5555

Haha it's nice to be in agreement. But in fact, I don't think we have ever disagreed about the facts related to the situation at hand.

 

The difference has been that I'm fine with significantly higher excess deaths (within a defined threshold) because I genuinely believe it's the least bad option available. But you, and most others here in the world, are opposed to that on moral grounds. Which is fine. Your camp will inevitably win due to the political optics of my camp. It be like that sometimes : P

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Yes. Brutally confined to a hotel or tourist resort. You should make a proposal out of this and pitch it to the folks in Hollywood.

Yeah starring Tom Hanks and his mate Wilson!Just needs a new title.

[The Cipher]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

A report by one hospital director in Bangkok a few days ago said about 50% of all walkins to his hospital tested positive.

This is actually a bit reassuring. It means that the likelihood of a sudden India-style dropoff in cases could be higher than I had expected. Hopefully by some miracle that happens.

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

This is actually a bit reassuring. It means that the likelihood of a sudden India-style dropoff in cases could be higher than I had expected. Hopefully by some miracle that happens.

Your first name isn't Louis by any chance?As in The Louis Cipher?

Edited July 9, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[aBigSmile]

5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I did predict in an earlier post here on TVF when a so called professor said that we could see 10,000 infections per day by the end of the year, and I replied that it could be by end of the month, but now I will have to revise my figures to say by tomorrow.

 

Now if that professor is so clever NOT, think about the rest running this country, maybe I should throw it out there, i.e. that we could reach NATURAL herd immunity by years end because we have no vaccines, and I ain't no professor.

There's no other solution than natural herd immunity. 

 

The vaccines are mildly effective against the Delta variant and likely useless again the Epsilon.

It's only a matter time before more potent variants emerge, as they react and mutate to break though the vaccine.

 

Humanity should quit inoculation at once, protect anyone over a certain age, and the let the disease rage among the young and strong.

In a year or two, it'll be behind us.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

32 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Interesting table. 

 

Possibly a mute point, but given the massive exodus from Phuket in June-2020 (I read estimates that about 15% of the population left last year as soon as the April/May-2020 lockdown was lifted), I doubt 547,584 is Phuket's population. 

 

I don't think anyone knows Phuket's population at present but the figure being used of 466,587 in the official police web site may be more accurate than the 547,584 figure.  

 

Of course, whichever population figure one uses, will greatly affect the % vaccinated calculations.

Given it's small geographical size, even if the population is only 400,000, Phuket is extremely densely populated. Which would favor the spread of Covid19.