Thailand reports new daily record of 9,276 COVID-19 cases, 72 more deaths

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Lack of testing randomly ring a bell for you,thought mot as you denied that would make a difference in cases as it was based upon beds and discharges as you still say and them it is only the clusters.  If you can't remember that I will be more than happy to go to the archives too provide your own words to you. You can just go tour activity from then and see for yourself instead of my digging it up.....enjoy.

Clearly, you don’t understand the process. Lack of testing is precisely why we have to depend on hospital walk-in case numbers to determine the near term course of the epidemic.

 

let me lay it out for you:

 

Because testing is minimal, the authorities use contact tracing of contacts of those admitted to hospitals. Contact tracing uncovers new clusters. The authorities then conduct testing of those clusters, which results in higher case numbers.

 

So hospital admissions lead to higher overall case numbers.

[Walker88]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

As you can see from your chart, infections were not rising much, until the Delta variant hit in June, provoking a sharp increase.

 

The Doom and Gloom types had no idea that Delta was coming, back in May, yet they denied that case numbers were flat, based on nothing.

Actually, the Doom and Gloom types suspected a dangerous variant, because the # of human petri dishes remains massive and viruses are wont to mutate.

 

Mutations are quite subtle and often depend on a single hydroxy bond shifting position, owing to similar chemical charges. Maybe it's just a shift in the way the complex protein folds. it's random and the # is a function of the # of viruses in existence. Virulence is a function of how human cells react to exposure to the virus' protein coating. Sometimes mutations are inert relative to human cells, sometimes they pose a major risk.

 

The longer the virus exists widely in human populations, the greater the chance of even more virulent mutations that obviate the existing vaccines. It's basic biochemistry. That is why mass vaccination is so important: it limits the # of human petri dishes.

 

Anyone with a background in biochemistry---perhaps such folks are 100% inside the "Doom and Gloomer" Venn Diagram---knew a Delta-like variant was inevitable so long as vaccinations were proceeding slowly.

 

Ever wonder how major pandemics like the Black Plague stopped (but the pesky thing never disappeared)? It killed such large percentages of the population in major cities, that 'social distancing' became easy: every other person was already dead.

 

Not saying that is going to be how Covid fades away, because 15th Century Europe did not have a robust medical research community, but pathogens are among the entities that regularly win the Darwin Selected-in Award for survival. Even better than cockroaches, pathogens (bacteria and the much smaller non-living molecules we call viruses) are among the Fittest.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Walker88

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Clearly, you don’t understand the process. Lack of testing is precisely why we have to depend on hospital walk-in case numbers to determine the near term course of the epidemic.

 

let me lay it out for you:

 

Because testing is minimal, the authorities use contact tracing of contacts of those admitted to hospitals. Contact tracing uncovers new clusters. The authorities then conduct testing of those clusters, which results in higher case numbers.

 

So hospital admissions lead to higher overall case numbers.

Hows that contact tracing going now? I take it you're up to date on that

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Actually, the Doom and Gloom types suspected a dangerous variant, because the # of human petri dishes remains massive and viruses are wont to mutate.

 

Mutations are quite subtle and often depend on a single hydroxy bond shifting position, owing to similar chemical charges. it's random and the # is a function of the # of viruses in existence. Virulence is a function of how human cells react to exposure to the virus' protein coating. Sometimes mutations are inert relative to human cells, sometimes they pose a major risk.

 

The longer the virus exists widely in human populations, the greater the chance of even more virulent mutations that obviate the existing vaccines. It's basic biochemistry. That is why mass vaccination is so important: it limits the # of human petri dishes.

 

Anyone with a background in biochemistry---perhaps such folks are 100% inside the "Doom and Gloomer" Venn Diagram---knew a Delta-like variant was inevitable so long as vaccinations were proceeding slowly.

 

Ever wonder how major pandemics like the Black Plague stopped (but the pesky thing never disappeared)? It killed such large percentages of the population in major cities, that 'social distancing' became easy: every other person was already dead.

 

Not saying that is going to be how Covid fades away, because 15th Century Europe did not have a robust medical research community, but pathogens are among the entities that regularly win the Darwin Selected-in Award for survival. Even better than cockroaches, pathogens are among the Fittest.

The case numbers in Thailand in May were not sufficient for there to be a likelihood of yet another variant emerging. In fact, variants typically evolve in large populations of infecteds. 

 

Your premise is weak. No new variant evolved in Thailand, so far.

 

Any Doom and Gloomer back in May who claimed that 17,000 cases a week was sufficient for a new variant to evolve would have been wrong. 
 

This is not to say that infection levels here will never be high enough to support evolution of a new variant, so please don’t waste our time about that.

[Johnny Mac]

So is this country locking down or not? If not, then say what the 'plan' is, don't just say nothing.

 

At least the Olympics will be on in this time zone soon, not that I usually do much living here anyway.

[Danderman123]

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Hows that contact tracing going now? I take it you're up to date on that

Based on today’s higher numbers, clearly new cases are being identified via contact tracing.

 

oh, wait, you are thinking that I am defending the current process, when I am just explain how it’s being done. You know better than that. And you know that hospital walk-in case numbers are predictive of near term overall numbers.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Danderman123

[AndyFoxy]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Based on today’s higher numbers, clearly new cases are being identified via contact tracing.

Clearly....because you said so.

[anchadian]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Mac said:

So is this country locking down or not? If not, then say what the 'plan' is, don't just say nothing.

 

At least the Olympics will be on in this time zone soon, not that I usually do much living here anyway.

The govt meeting regarding the lockdown started about an hour ago.  Now a waiting game.

[Blumpie]

The only thing I care about is my silly sandbox.  When can I go to Thailand and have a wonderful vacation while oxygen will soon run out and people are going to die?  

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Natural herd immunity agaist this virus with such a low % being fully vaccinated will come at very high human cost.

Do you think the government can stop it's course ?

 

No vaccines, no lockdowns = the very high human costs your stating, NATURAL herd immunity is the only path at the moment, can't stop that, unless they obtain more vaccines and put lockdowns in place, which we know isn't going to happen, the latter, maybe, as for vaccines, well they are far away at them moment because these clowns have no idea what they are doing, more interested in having parties I heard, and spreading the virus.

[brewsterbudgen]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Mac said:

So is this country locking down or not? If not, then say what the 'plan' is, don't just say nothing.

 

At least the Olympics will be on in this time zone soon, not that I usually do much living here anyway.

Be patient!  The meeting is in progress, and we should find out in an hour or so.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Based on today’s higher numbers, clearly new cases are being identified via contact tracing.

I highly doubt contact tracing in Bangkok finds many cases. Seeing as it seems they can longer trace the delta variant through contacts as reported yesterday. 

 

The numbers are now at a stage that contact tracing is overwhelmed.

 

The bulk are though hospital walk ins and pro active testing.

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, hioctane said:

NOBODY has been able to reach herd immunity naturally.

I think I've reached "heard" immunity I'm pretty sure I had covid early 2020 I recovered naturally from pretty nasty classic covid/flu like symptoms and I've heard that I would probably have immunity so I from all reports have reached heard immunity naturally, I know the "a" in "heard" is not same as no "a" in "herd" but it's pretty close!But in all seriousness natural herd immunity won't be reached now because of the prevalence of vaccines.I'll also add that I've had a runny nose recently and a tickle in my throat and suspect it could be another variant so without testing it won't be known.I think what will happen will be a combination of natural and vaccine assisted herd immunity.The UK reported over 32,000 new infections today and is now planing to move to a Swedish approach to restrictions without the mandatory requirement.

Edited July 9, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[Walker88]

18 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The case numbers in Thailand in May were not sufficient for there to be a likelihood of yet another variant emerging. In fact, variants typically evolve in large populations of infecteds. 

 

Your premise is weak. No new variant evolved in Thailand, so far.

 

Any Doom and Gloomer back in May who claimed that 17,000 cases a week was sufficient for a new variant to evolve would have been wrong. 
 

This is not to say that infection levels here will never be high enough to support evolution of a new variant, so please don’t waste our time about that.

Random is random. ONE infected person could be the host of the virus molecule that mutates into a virulent form. Also, Delta may have first arisen someplace else, but if the mutation that makes Delta Delta is fairly simple, Delta can arise independently anywhere at any time. It need not have been imported.

 

Similarly, it is even possible Delta originated in Thailand and was carried to India by a traveler, where it quickly took hold because of India's crowded living conditions and less use of masks (at the time).

 

When all is said and done regarding Covid, I am going to guess that Thailand's initial 'success' in dealing with it---as the 2nd country to experience it after China---will prove to be a kind of general immunity owing to quite similar viruses coming to Thailand from China over the years. That virus probably circulated widely throughout the Thai population, but the natural immunity saved the country until the inevitable mutations either occurred locally, or came in via travelers. Thais did not have immunity to the mutations, hence the current problem.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Walker88

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, AndyFoxy said:

Clearly....because you said so.

That’s the process.

 

Contact tracers follow up hospital admissions, and that is how new clusters are identified.

 

Or, do you believe that new clusters are identified by widespread random testing?

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

Lock Down !!!  .......................... how about "Step Down", him and his whole cabinet should go now

"him and his whole cabinet should go now" you spelt "army" incorrectly!

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 

The numbers are now at a stage that contact tracing is overwhelmed.

 

The bulk are though hospital walk ins and pro active testing.

 

 

You really think that there’s a lot of random testing going on in Bangkok?

 

Do you have any current links to that?

 

All that “contact tracing is overwhelmed” means is that there is no more capacity, just like the hospitals. It doesn’t mean that contact tracing has stopped, just like hospitals are overwhelmed, but still admitting patients.

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, robblok said:

Says the guy who wants to open the bars but does not understand it will increase numbers. Guess you don't understand things either.

 

Its pure speculation that Thaksin would handle it better. No speculation though that he would steal, but then again all these governments do. Yes i supported the coup as i would support a popular rising of the people right now too. I mean that is also not democratic but many would love to see it. 

Strawman. I didn't say open the bars. I said it doesn't make sense to have restaurants open serving orange juice but not a glass of wine with meals. Please do not misrepresent my position again.

 

History is a great predictor of the future. If you look at Thailand's success under Thaksin it would be obvious that he would have handled this better. You prefer and incompetent, illegal, corrupt administration to a competent, elected, corrupt administration. You can tell a lot about a person by the type of people they support.

 

 

[Taboo2]

Cancel Christmas

[khunpa]

Lockdown will not work here in Thailand, because there is no financial support with it.

 

Most Thais have already used their savings and are living day to day. Even if lockdown most of these people will still take the chances needed to get any kind of income.

 

Thailand only have two options now:

 

1. Do nothing and let the virus do it’s job.

 

2. Beg other countries for vaccines or sell their subs etc. and buy some fast.

 

The no. 2 option will never happen, as this involves admitting mistake and losing face. (Worse than death here)

 

So basically look forward to some dark months ahead and a lot of sick people. 
 

One thing for sure is that they messed this up big time and now time to see the consequences.

Edited July 9, 2021 by khunpa

[Spilornis]

4 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

They do.

The chart has daily shots along with target graph. Currently the actual daily jabs are well below target.

Sorry my Thai is no good.

Is that the figure 317,506 in the second diagram in the opening post

Thanks

[Bkk Brian]

22 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The case numbers in Thailand in May were not sufficient for there to be a likelihood of yet another variant emerging. In fact, variants typically evolve in large populations of infecteds. 

 

Your premise is weak. No new variant evolved in Thailand, so far.

 

Any Doom and Gloomer back in May who claimed that 17,000 cases a week was sufficient for a new variant to evolve would have been wrong. 
 

This is not to say that infection levels here will never be high enough to support evolution of a new variant, so please don’t waste our time about that.

That goes against the mutation in Vietnam where the virus numbers were in low hundreds daily and yet a new and dangerous variant mutated believed to have been from one person being infected with the Alpha and Delta strain.

 

https://theconversation.com/is-a-hybrid-covid-strain-behind-vietnams-latest-wave-not-exactly-161879

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

When the hospital system is maxed out (for the nitpickers, I mean at 100% capacity), how will we know if the numbers of infections are still increasing?

You can get tested at medical facilities but don't have to be admitted.That's why I say it's not about admissions.They now send people home to wait for vacancies at medical facilities.

[anchadian]

[Breaking] The government has announced new lockdown measures. - work from home - no unnecessary travelling except to buy food and healthcare, - asked not to leave the house between 10 pm and 4 am, - shopping malls closed but supermarkets and markets open

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1413349259294822403

 

The lockdown will begin tomorrow and last for 14 days.

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1413350833270312960

 

Proposed measures for metro Bangkok just announced: Work from home 100 percent. Malls/non essential closed. Stay home from 10PM to 4AM (not a hard curfew however). Stay home except if needed like going for essential food, hospital, vaccinated. Full details soon.

https://twitter.com/The_PattayaNews/status/1413350567393464324

 

Edited July 9, 2021 by anchadian

[ikke1959]

2 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I did predict in an earlier post here on TVF when a so called professor said that we could see 10,000 infections per day by the end of the year, and I replied that it could be by end of the month, but now I will have to revise my figures to say by tomorrow.

 

Now if that professor is so clever NOT, think about the rest running this country, maybe I should throw it out there, i.e. that we could reach NATURAL herd immunity by years end because we have no vaccines, and I ain't no professor.

Professors and Generals are the same here, They have a title, but their knowledge is below zero

[dinsdale]

From what I'm hearing it seems the domino effect may be happening in relation to provincial border lock downs. I wander about buses, trains and planes. Seems Prayut is once again passing the buck to governors.

[brewsterbudgen]

2 minutes ago, anchadian said:

[Breaking] The government has announced new lockdown measures. - work from home - no unnecessary travelling except to buy food and healthcare, - asked not to leave the house between 10 pm and 4 am, - shopping malls closed but supermarkets and markets open

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1413349259294822403

 

Effective when?

[Khabib]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Yes in one way the pandemic is a god send for the anti goverment people. Shows how absolutely incompetent the government is. This wont be forgotten easy. That is the only silver lining there is. 

 

Yea if they were sincere those tanks and subs would go and tghe money would go to the populace who are suffering. The money could have been used to pay people to stay home. That is the only way. 

There is one other silver lining, and that's the depreciating baht!

[Bkk Brian]

BREAKING! New semi lockdown in Metro Bangkok proposed to start Saturday, lasting 14 days first. Leaving home only for necessary travel & "curfew" imposed 10pm to 4am. Prayut will forego 3 months of salary to help govt.

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1413349272133672963

 

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

That goes against the mutation in Vietnam where the virus numbers were in low hundreds daily and yet a new and dangerous variant mutated believed to have been from one person being infected with the Alpha and Delta strain.

 

https://theconversation.com/is-a-hybrid-covid-strain-behind-vietnams-latest-wave-not-exactly-161879

The lower the number of infections, the less likely a new variant will evolve. 

 

Any predicting a new variant in a small infected population is likely going to be wrong.