Will this pandemic ever end as the infections in the UK surge again.

[mommysboy]

3 hours ago, Scott said:

There are several possible reasons for this.  First, it depends on the vaccine and the variant.  If those that are vaxxed with AZ and they get either Beta or Delta, the vaccine is not particularly effective.  With Beta, AZ drops down to 10% efficacy.  Efficacy is at around 60% for Delta.  

 

Second, the report doesn't say much about any other factors such as when they were vaccinated.  If they were in the early group vaccinated, are they experiencing waning antibodies?  Do they have other factors such as  being immunocompromised?

 

I am sure the NHS will be looking at this very carefully.   That said, it is not a positive development. 

The Delta variant is prevalent in the UK. The AZ jab is very effective at preventing death so that's not an explanation in my book.

 

I rather think it's just because over 50's peg out more frequently anyway, and having covid was somewhat incidental.  It could be waning antibodies (particularly with Pfizer) or as you say these unfortunates were immunocompromised.

 

By the way, all these vaccines also reduce non covid related deaths too, but no idea why.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

I see a certain poster is confused at what I wrote.

To be clear, given that the unvaccinated are not ( yet ) criminals, any move by government to "lockdown" the unvaccinated could not be equivalent to jail. It would also have to be in a proper accommodation with indoor plumbing, so anyone living in their car, or a garage would necessarily have to be accommodated at government expense in a proper facility. As they would not be able to go to the supermarket, meals would have to be provided, etc.

 

Anyway, IMO it won't happen, for obvious reasons, but these days it seems anything is possible, no matter how barking, so I can't say that it won't happen for sure.

[Virt]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

Anyway, IMO it won't happen, for obvious reasons, but these days it seems anything is possible, no matter how barking, so I can't say that it won't happen for sure.

It's the salami method.

One slice at a time, so eventually we will see stricter rules for unvaccinated people, if the pandemic are not showing any signs of decreasing.

 

2022 are not going to be a good year for the sceptics, but i think we will see more and more take the vaccines.

 

Some will grow tired of beeing outshamed and just take the shot to get back to normal without tests and so on,

and some will realize that the vaccines are actually pretty safe compared to getting covid 19.

There will always be some that refuse to do what the government or other tell them to do,  but they just have to live with their choices.

 

 

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

7 hours ago, Scott said:

There are several possible reasons for this.  First, it depends on the vaccine and the variant.  If those that are vaxxed with AZ and they get either Beta or Delta, the vaccine is not particularly effective.  With Beta, AZ drops down to 10% efficacy.  Efficacy is at around 60% for Delta.  

 

Second, the report doesn't say much about any other factors such as when they were vaccinated.  If they were in the early group vaccinated, are they experiencing waning antibodies?  Do they have other factors such as  being immunocompromised?

 

I am sure the NHS will be looking at this very carefully.   That said, it is not a positive development. 

AZ is a much maligned vaccine.

 

It appears to be very effective actually:

 

https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

 

There was also a Canadian study later on which appeared to confirm this.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

AZ is a much maligned vaccine.

 

It appears to be very effective actually:

 

https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

 

There was also a Canadian study later on which appeared to confirm this.

It is very effective. Not quite as effective as Pfizer or Moderna, but still an excellent vaccine.

[Danderman123]

On 11/12/2021 at 2:01 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

I see a certain poster is confused at what I wrote.

To be clear, given that the unvaccinated are not ( yet ) criminals, any move by government to "lockdown" the unvaccinated could not be equivalent to jail. It would also have to be in a proper accommodation with indoor plumbing, so anyone living in their car, or a garage would necessarily have to be accommodated at government expense in a proper facility. As they would not be able to go to the supermarket, meals would have to be provided, etc.

 

Anyway, IMO it won't happen, for obvious reasons, but these days it seems anything is possible, no matter how barking, so I can't say that it won't happen for sure.

Austria to put millions of unvaccinated people in Covid lockdown

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Austria to put millions of unvaccinated people in Covid lockdown

I'll believe it if it happens. The cost would be astronomical.

 

Just read the linked article, and it's not a full lockdown if people can go to work.

As is said they ain't a police state, so how the <deleted> would they enforce it?

Edited November 14, 2021 by thaibeachlovers

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'll believe it if it happens. The cost would be astronomical.

I think that given the low numbers of yet unvaccinated people they believe the cost of not doing it is greater. These issues have obviously been thought through.

[Jeffr2]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'll believe it if it happens. The cost would be astronomical.

Starts tomorrow, Monday in Austria.  And very soon in Germany.  Good.  Time for those of us who are vaccinated to be able to get on with our lives.  The unvaccinated will come around.  Or, hide under their beds.

 

From that article:

Millions of people not fully vaccinated against Covid in the regions of Upper Austria and Salzburg will be allowed to leave their homes only for reasons considered essential to life, such as going to work, grocery shopping or visiting the doctor, Schallenberg said – measures believed to be unprecedented in Europe.

 

Separately, the German government said it planned to tighten restrictions against unvaccinated people, as infections in both countries soared to record highs and intensive care units faced increasing strain.

Schallenberg said regional leaders meeting on Sunday would approve the plans, which could then be applied across the country, and that spot checks would be used to enforce the lockdown.

“Unvaccinated people will only be allowed to leave their flats to go to work, for food shopping or when they need to stretch their legs,” he said.

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I think that given the low numbers of yet unvaccinated people they believe the cost of not doing it is greater. These issues have obviously been thought through.

They are being implemented per the recommendations of medical professionals.  It's normally the politicians who mess things up.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

Starts tomorrow, Monday in Austria.  And very soon in Germany.  Good.  Time for those of us who are vaccinated to be able to get on with our lives.  The unvaccinated will come around.  Or, hide under their beds.

 

From that article:

Millions of people not fully vaccinated against Covid in the regions of Upper Austria and Salzburg will be allowed to leave their homes only for reasons considered essential to life, such as going to work, grocery shopping or visiting the doctor, Schallenberg said – measures believed to be unprecedented in Europe.

 

Separately, the German government said it planned to tighten restrictions against unvaccinated people, as infections in both countries soared to record highs and intensive care units faced increasing strain.

Schallenberg said regional leaders meeting on Sunday would approve the plans, which could then be applied across the country, and that spot checks would be used to enforce the lockdown.

“Unvaccinated people will only be allowed to leave their flats to go to work, for food shopping or when they need to stretch their legs,” he said.

They may try it, but will it succeed? I'm agog to see how long it lasts.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

They are being implemented per the recommendations of medical professionals.  It's normally the politicians who mess things up.

It's the politicians that have to make the laws to make it happen ( or did they just declare the end of democracy and put the medics in charge ). I expect the usual stuff ups.

In the end it'll come down to how many votes there are in it IMO.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

They may try it, but will it succeed? I'm agog to see how long it lasts.

Singapore is even more strict. Could you imagine people being able to roam freely without a smallpox vaccination if that virus was pandemic again? It's not stretch to understand what's going on here. They tried mass vaccinations but that has failed because of recalcitrance. Appealing to common sense and public responsibility isn't working so it's time for the stick.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/singapore-to-restrict-workplace-access-for-unvaccinated-people

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, ozimoron said:

Singapore is even more strict. Could you imagine people being able to roam freely without a smallpox vaccination if that virus was pandemic again? It's not stretch to understand what's going on here. They tried mass vaccinations but that has failed because of recalcitrance. Appealing to common sense and public responsibility isn't working so it's time for the stick.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/singapore-to-restrict-workplace-access-for-unvaccinated-people

Singapore is a tiny country with a small compliant population, a government that IMO doesn't have to worry about votes, and easily controlled. I wouldn't be using that country as an example.

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's the politicians that have to make the laws to make it happen ( or did they just declare the end of democracy and put the medics in charge ). I expect the usual stuff ups.

In the end it'll come down to how many votes there are in it IMO.

Agreed.  But look how the politicians blew it in the US.  100% going against the advice of the medical experts.  Looks like the politicians here are actually listening to the medical pros, then implementing laws that enforce their recommendations.

 

But for sure, it's going to be interesting to see how it pans out.  Too bad there are so many holdouts for the vaccine.  Their responsible for extending this pandemic.

[ozimoron]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Singapore is a tiny country with a small compliant population, a government that IMO doesn't have to worry about votes, and easily controlled. I wouldn't be using that country as an example.

It's not like Singapore is alone and the restrictions are only temporary until the virus is under control. One of the main considerations is reducing the spread of the vaccine before yet another variant or 10 shows up.

[ozimoron]

 

https://morningconsult.com/global-vaccine-tracking/

[Jeffr2]

6 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

 

https://morningconsult.com/global-vaccine-tracking/

All because of politics and misinformation.  Terrible.

[Scott]

Until school age children are vaccinated in large numbers I don't think we will get much of a handle on the virus for a long time.  They provide an excellent reservoir for the virus to spread.  They can be asymptomatic and they may present with mild symptoms that can go under the radar.  

 

 

[placeholder]

11 hours ago, ozimoron said:

 

https://morningconsult.com/global-vaccine-tracking/

I went to the page and it looks like these are vaccination figures for adults. So for the countries' whole population the figures are considerably lower.  And the figure for India is only for literate adults. For all of India's population,  it's slightly over 25% fully vaccinated.

[Danderman123]

22 hours ago, ozimoron said:

 

https://morningconsult.com/global-vaccine-tracking/

For these countries, the red segment represent a large pool of individuals willing to die for the cause of stupidity.

[ozimoron]

13 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

For these countries, the red segment represent a large pool of individuals willing to die for the cause of stupidity.

The discourse in this thread leads me to a gut feeling that the real number of unvaccinated in the US is much lower. For a start, folks really aren't that willing to die on the hill of their convictions. Many here are admitting that they have had the vax but oppose vaccinations on the principle that "Folks should have the right to choose and the gubmint shouldn't be allowed to force people to vaccinate". We have seen gross misreporting on polls before where the respondents weren't willing to state their true opinion for fear of vilification from one side or the other. The previous guy failed to be elected for a second term largely on the strength of mishandling the response to covid-19 and the right wing don't want to see the new guy succeed so there is a strong political motivation to misreport and attempt to influence others.

Edited November 15, 2021 by ozimoron

[fjb 24]

Maybe development of new and better medication, and pushing boosters & mandates according to Fauci. Have a listen to what he says in this interview (start 6:10 on video) with NY Times.

In summation, he stated:

On Nov. 12, White House COVID adviser Anthony Fauci, MD, went on The New York Times’ podcast The Daily to discuss the current state of the coronavirus in the U.S. According to Fauci, officials are now starting to see some waning immunity against both infection and hospitalization several months after initial vaccination. The infectious disease expert pointed toward incoming data from Israel, which he noted tends to be about a month to a month and a half ahead of us in terms of the outbreak.
“They are seeing a waning of immunity not only against infection but against hospitalization and to some extent death, which is starting to now involve all age groups. It isn’t just the elderly,” Fauci said. “It’s waning to the point that you’re seeing more and more people getting breakthrough infections, and more and more of those people who are getting breakthrough infections are winding up in the hospital.”
As a result of these findings, Fauci warned that vaccinated people should get their booster shot, as it might actually be more important than health officials first realized. “If one looks back at this, one can say, do you know, it isn’t as if a booster is a bonus, but a booster might actually be an essential part of the primary regimen that people should have,” he said on The Daily.
Fauci went on to say, “I think … that the boosting is gonna be an absolutely essential component of our response, not a bonus, not a luxury, but an absolute essential part of the program.”

 

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

Maybe development of new and better medication, and pushing boosters & mandates according to Fauci. Have a listen to what he says in this interview (start 6:10 on video) with NY Times.

In summation, he stated:

On Nov. 12, White House COVID adviser Anthony Fauci, MD, went on The New York Times’ podcast The Daily to discuss the current state of the coronavirus in the U.S. According to Fauci, officials are now starting to see some waning immunity against both infection and hospitalization several months after initial vaccination. The infectious disease expert pointed toward incoming data from Israel, which he noted tends to be about a month to a month and a half ahead of us in terms of the outbreak.
“They are seeing a waning of immunity not only against infection but against hospitalization and to some extent death, which is starting to now involve all age groups. It isn’t just the elderly,” Fauci said. “It’s waning to the point that you’re seeing more and more people getting breakthrough infections, and more and more of those people who are getting breakthrough infections are winding up in the hospital.”
As a result of these findings, Fauci warned that vaccinated people should get their booster shot, as it might actually be more important than health officials first realized. “If one looks back at this, one can say, do you know, it isn’t as if a booster is a bonus, but a booster might actually be an essential part of the primary regimen that people should have,” he said on The Daily.
Fauci went on to say, “I think … that the boosting is gonna be an absolutely essential component of our response, not a bonus, not a luxury, but an absolute essential part of the program.”

So get a booster.

[Jeffr2]

Great article:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/11/science/vaccine-waning-immunity.html

 

[morrobay]

Get used to it. It's going to transition to an endemic like all the other Coronaviruses. And by the way there is cross reactive immunity to this covid virus from previous exposure to other Coronaviruses. (search).                   https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/what-will-it-be-like-when-covid-19-becomes-endemic/

[Scott]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

Get used to it. It's going to transition to an endemic like all the other Coronaviruses. And by the way there is cross reactive immunity to this covid virus from previous exposure to other Coronaviruses. (search).                   https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/what-will-it-be-like-when-covid-19-becomes-endemic/

I suspect that as projections go, this one is as good of a guess as you'll find.  I think that as long as there is a fair percentage of the population that is unvaccinated, including children, it is going to continue to raise havoc.  It will continue to rip through care facilities and infect a fair number and deaths will continue.   It's going to a major concern for people who are immunocompromised like people with cancer.  

 

Once we have children vaccinated and figure out when and how often boosters are needed, we will be on our way to at least having a level of control over the virus rather than the other way around.  

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, Scott said:

I suspect that as projections go, this one is as good of a guess as you'll find.  I think that as long as there is a fair percentage of the population that is unvaccinated, including children, it is going to continue to raise havoc.  It will continue to rip through care facilities and infect a fair number and deaths will continue.   It's going to a major concern for people who are immunocompromised like people with cancer.  

 

Once we have children vaccinated and figure out when and how often boosters are needed, we will be on our way to at least having a level of control over the virus rather than the other way around.  

One reason I'm tough with the anti-vaxxers.  They're killing people. And it's possible to avoid this if they just got the jab.

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-outbreaks-rising-in-long-term-care-homes-across-the-country/

COVID-19 outbreaks rising in long-term care homes across the country

The coronavirus has torn through a dozen homes since mid-September. Nine are still battling outbreaks, including the 118-bed Drew Nursing Home in southeastern New Brunswick, where eight of the 29 residents who tested positive have died. Until last month, not a single resident or staff member in the vast majority of the province’s 71 homes had fallen ill with COVID-19.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 11/14/2021 at 11:09 AM, ozimoron said:

 

https://morningconsult.com/global-vaccine-tracking/

 

The above chart is showing POLLING results of what adults say they plan to do with COVID vaccinations.

 

The chart below is what people have actually done thus far, with vaccination rates by country.

 

Interesting to note, as of Nov. 14, Thailand's rate of partially vaccinated population has almost equaled that of the U.S. (64% vs 67%), though the U.S. has more of an edge in the fully vaccinated rate.

 

That Thailand is so close to the U.S. by both measures is not a good look for the U.S.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The above chart was Our World in Data's selection of countries to compare.

 

The chart below is my selection of other MAJOR countries to compare:

 

 

 

 

Link to above chart

 

So how many other major countries currently have higher fully vaccinated rates than the U.S.?  Many, more than have lower rates, such as Russian, Indonesia and India.

 

Major countries with higher fully vaccinated rates than the U.S. (excerpted from the chart above):

 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK