Inflation in the USA - Does it worry you?

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

14 yrs ago I lived in Seattle while attending a Maritime School. I paid $1200./mo for a tiny studio 2 blocks from Space Needle. High rent is nothing new. It's always been hard for the bottom rung wage earners so IMO it doesn't explain why employers can't find workers. You have to increase your skill set to be worth the higher wages. 

 

 

Near the space needle. That's prime location. What was the same space in a dodgy area going for back then?

I have a related story. I never paid more than 200 a month rent during the many years I lived in San Francisco. 

[EVENKEEL]

29 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Near the space needle. That's prime location. What was the same space in a dodgy area going for back then?

I have a related story. I never paid more than 200 a month rent during the many years I lived in San Francisco. 

My place was bottom of Queen Anne St at Eddy, I could have had a bigger place for $600/mo/ no parking and homeless sleeping around.

 

I doubt $200/mo will even get you a parking spot in SF these days. Rent in East bay has gone crazy because the SF people are moving, this has been going on for years. I'm 100 mi east of SF and so many make the commute to the bay each day for work, hwy 580 gets worse and worse for traffic.

Edited October 27, 2021 by EVENKEEL

[DrPhibes]

On 10/26/2021 at 9:49 AM, Jeffr2 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/global-shortage-of-workers-whats-going-on-experts-explain.html

 

“We believe there is a more permanent loss of workers driven by a large number of older workers taking early retirement. The thought of returning to the office and the daily commute may seem unpalatable for many people and with surging equity markets having boosted 401k pension plans, early retirement may seem a very attractive option,” they noted, adding that border closures will have curbed immigration and slower birth rates mean fewer young workers are now entering the workforce.

About 10 aerospace engineering friends of mine are taking early retirement.  Their retirement investment accounts/real estate have done so well there is no financial reason to postpone it.  Cashing out their expensive So. Cal homes and retiring in Arizona, Colorado, the Carolinas, and Texas to a larger paid off house 1/3 the cost of the one they sold while shifting their blooming investment/retirement accounts to much less risky investments, their done having to make money.  The aerospace companies suffer because decades of experience for each one of them is walking out the door.  Not everything about engineering is in a specification someone else can read.  Some might do contract work to stay busy on projects they find interesting, most have picked up hobbies and other things to keep them occupied to produce a more fulfilled life.

[Danderman123]

The market will sort all of this out over time.

 

There was a huge disruption to the world economy over the last couple of years, and 700,000+ people disappeared in the USA. So, there is a temporary labor shortage in many countries.

 

Enterprises that don’t adapt by offering higher wages will disappear. There will be higher prices, as employers will pass on the higher costs. This inflation will continue until the employment issues are resolved.

 

Higher prices incentivize additional production, 2x4s at $7 will be produced at ever higher levels until people don’t buy any more. Then, prices will stabilize.

 

 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

The market will sort all of this out over time.

...

 

 

That's more like an assertion of religious faith than anything to do with reality.

[HeijoshinCool]

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Utah is a mainly conservative state. $18.50/hour now offered for cashiers, grocery stockers, janitors, etc. Few takers as, once hired, they will be required to take a vaxx they don't want.

 

Pro-vax or anti-vax aside, it is an issue that absolutely affects the entire society, and economy.

 

The question is: is it the law of unintended consequences, or intended consequences?

 

[HeijoshinCool]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

2x4s at $7 will be produced at ever higher levels until people don’t buy any more. Then, prices will stabilize.

.

Wanna bet.....?

 

That was then, this is now. What Klaus 'Anal' Schwab calls, the New Normal.

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

Utah is a mainly conservative state. $18.50/hour now offered for cashiers, grocery stockers, janitors, etc. Few takers as, once hired, they will be required to take a vaxx they don't want.

 

Pro-vax or anti-vax aside, it is an issue that absolutely affects the entire society, and economy.

 

The question is: is it the law of unintended consequences, or intended consequences?

 

Those who don’t get vaccinated have a high probability of infection, which may make their objections moot.

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

Utah is a mainly conservative state. $18.50/hour now offered for cashiers, grocery stockers, janitors, etc. Few takers as, once hired, they will be required to take a vaxx they don't want.

 

Pro-vax or anti-vax aside, it is an issue that absolutely affects the entire society, and economy.

 

The question is: is it the law of unintended consequences, or intended consequences?

 

How do you know it's mostly about not wanting to be vaccinated? 

[Scott]

Off-topic discussion of flags has been reported and removed. 

 

[Scott]

I've been in the States since before the pandemic, so I've seen this unfold in person.  I certainly don't know the whole story nor do I fully understand the complexities of what is going on but it might be wise to take a look at how previous pandemics. 

 

The Bubonic plague had a huge social/economic impact on the world and in Europe.  People began seeing they had value.   The Black Death caused a major labor shortage, providing unprecedented market power to common people and sparking a European peasant revolt. The affect was profound.  Smallpox had less dramatic effects on the evolution of economic systems, but its unequal impacts on native groups paved the way for European conquest of the New World.  Spanish flu closely followed World War I (WWI); both were particularly deadly for young to middle-aged men, which led to labor shortages and stalling of industry but led to labor changes such as women in the workforce.   It also led to widespread child labor.

Public responses to pandemic disease are largely unchanged since the Black Death. Disbelief of disease presence, misinformation, unclear public communication, disregard for governmental proclamations, and poor personal risk assessment were and are still common.

In the area where I have been living, I would guess that about 40% of the people are retired.  Of those I would guess a little less than half continued to work, mostly part-time and most because they wanted to rather than needed to.  The pandemic took pretty much all of them out of the work force.  18 or so months later, they are older and not as able or interested in working.  A small number died of Covid and a larger number got it and haven't fully recovered.  For them work isn't an option.

 

Of the families living in the area, a HUGE problem is child care.  A large number of two-income families are now one-income because one parent has to remain with the kids.  Schools are open BUT with poor mitigation in the area where I live, classes have been closed/suspended when there are outbreaks, so school is no longer a safe bet for child care.   Two charter schools rather abruptly closed (and all the state/federal grant money disappeared with the owners).  

My partner worked full-time prior to the pandemic.  He was on paid leave for an extended period of time during the lockdown.   During that time, he also did PostMate deliveries, earning additional income.  When the paid leave ended, he had to chose between going on the enhanced unemployment or trying to find something else.  Because he is an immigrant, he was afraid of getting deported, even though he is a US citizen, so he didn't claim unemployment.  He found part-time work working in the HR department for Amazon.  He also started stock-trading and made enough money to make a comfortable living.  He still does.  He will not return to full-time work until/unless he is paid considerably more than he is.

 

Rents in this area are astronomical.  The eviction moratorium is gone and even some local families are now homeless. 

 

Information on the affects of pandemics/plagues:  https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.630449/full

[bendejo]

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The market will sort all of this out over time.

The theory that free markets regulate themselves went down the tubes in 2008.

 

Just as a reality check, ten years ago tickets to see a certain famous-name comedian in the US were $200 for a decent seat, $75 to sit near the ceiling. 

More recently (pre-Covid) I heard some celebs on a talk show b_tching how it costs $300 per person to see Madonna, and she wasn't putting anyone on the guest list.  I hear that's the price these days for nearly every arena music show, but on the other hand you get a 2-3 hour performance, and of course there is an intermission so you can go to the concessions and spend $$$ on merchandise and lousy, overpriced sports arena food.

I have a buddy (over 60) who is an all-time Rolling Stones fan.  He went to show a few years ago and even he couldn't take any more after an hour and a half.

 

 

[bendejo]

On 10/26/2021 at 11:46 AM, Jingthing said:

I have no idea with what you're implying by the people are no longer there comment. 

That's another thing in the US these days: a mere comment about certain things could result in death threats to you and yours, doxing, etc.

An argument against the paranoia of immigration is that immigrant laborers do the work no one else will do.  I believe that is what is being implied.  And it seems to be playing out.

 

 

[bokningar]

When WOKE and BLM became more important than real economy. Why care anymore?  

[cmarshall]

9 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There was a huge disruption to the world economy over the last couple of years, and 700,000+ people disappeared in the USA. So, there is a temporary labor shortage in many countries.

 

We know with certainty that the official Covid death count in the US is way too low.  As of June, 2021 this article cites a number based on excess deaths of 900,000.  Must be well over a million by now.

 

It’s always been near certain that the U.S., along with every other nation, has severely undercounted the number of coronavirus cases and deaths attributed to the virus. The speed and scale of the pandemic made getting an accurate reading of its impact a challenge, but, as of Friday, the numbers in the U.S. currently stand at more than 32 million reported cases resulting in 580,000 deaths. Those numbers compiled by Johns Hopkins are grim, but a new analysis by researchers at the University of Washington puts the death toll in the U.S. far higher, at 905,000 deaths.

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/covid-death-toll-underreported-higher-excess-deaths-study.html

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, bokningar said:

When WOKE and BLM became more important than real economy. Why care anymore?  

You need a better source for your news.  Seriously.

[Jeffr2]

11 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

We know with certainty that the official Covid death count in the US is way too low.  As of June, 2021 this article cites a number based on excess deaths of 900,000.  Must be well over a million by now.

 

It’s always been near certain that the U.S., along with every other nation, has severely undercounted the number of coronavirus cases and deaths attributed to the virus. The speed and scale of the pandemic made getting an accurate reading of its impact a challenge, but, as of Friday, the numbers in the U.S. currently stand at more than 32 million reported cases resulting in 580,000 deaths. Those numbers compiled by Johns Hopkins are grim, but a new analysis by researchers at the University of Washington puts the death toll in the U.S. far higher, at 905,000 deaths.

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/covid-death-toll-underreported-higher-excess-deaths-study.html

And deaths are just one stat.  Those suffering long term effects, and those now having to deal with the loss of family members and loved ones.  The economic and emotional effects of these losses are huge.

[peter zwart]

And not just in the USA. Europe also has these "labour problems. And the rising inflation is what is inevitable but also the beginning of a huge financial crisis that awaits us. Just like in China, the housing market is an important and substantial part of our economy. house prices have exploded. This will have consequences if interest rates, according to economic laws, have to contain inflation. A significant interest rate increase can no longer be ruled out. This will cause problems for homeowners "But many companies will also get into trouble if interest rates rise. There has been massive borrowing in recent years. The money was almost free. When interest rates rise, many companies will run into problems with all the consequences. now in the period when it will become clear whether the financial system is now definitively bankrupt or whether we are going to let go of the old economic laws. Who knows…..may say.

[peter zwart]

On 10/25/2021 at 11:32 PM, EVENKEEL said:

The workers didn't just disappear. What's wrong with these people. Where are the high school kids who used to take fast food jobs? College students taking part time jobs? Schools are open so parents can't use that excuse.

Making money online?

 

[EVENKEEL]

2 hours ago, bokningar said:

When WOKE and BLM became more important than real economy. Why care anymore?  

Yeah, I'm not sure which worries me more my dollar or losing my country to the Woke nonsense.

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Yeah, I'm not sure which worries me more my dollar or losing my country to the Woke nonsense.

Woke is only a term used by the fake news right wing media outlets.  Along with many other childish terms to reference others. 

[EVENKEEL]

12 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Woke is only a term used by the fake news right wing media outlets.  Along with many other childish terms to reference others. 

Woke

Woke is a term originating in the United States which originally meant to be alert to racial prejudice and discrimination. Beginning in the 2010s, it came to encompass a broader awareness of social inequalities such as sexism, and has also been used as shorthand for left-wing ideas involving identity politics and social justice, such as the notion of white privilege and slavery reparations for African Americans.

[Jeffr2]

6 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Woke

Woke is a term originating in the United States which originally meant to be alert to racial prejudice and discrimination. Beginning in the 2010s, it came to encompass a broader awareness of social inequalities such as sexism, and has also been used as shorthand for left-wing ideas involving identity politics and social justice, such as the notion of white privilege and slavery reparations for African Americans.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2020/jan/21/how-the-word-woke-was-weaponised-by-the-right

 

How the word ‘woke’ was weaponised by the right

The term is meant to denote an attentiveness to important issues. But the likes of Laurence Fox and Toby Young have begun using it in a very different way

[HeijoshinCool]

9 hours ago, Jingthing said:

How do you know it's mostly about not wanting to be vaccinated? 

.

 

Conversations with employers, big and small. over many weeks in various parts of the country while driving from Florida to Los Angeles.

 

The aforementioned senior manager at Smith's Supermarket stated quite clearly that it was a primary reason in Bountiful, Utah, as well as other areas of Utah, for turning down jobs.

 

Smith's is owned by Kroger. Kroger is on the edge of going from a Fortune 500 company, to a Fortune 100 company. Not only are they offering $18.50/hour, but also things that up until now, they never would have considered: discounted health care, reimbursement of college tuition, and the option of getting paid daily. Yep, leave your shift with your pay. Never been done in the USA except for day labor ditch diggers. 

 

And, he said, he has another conundrum: supply chain problems leading to empty shelves, and yet, no new hires to stock what they actually do get in.

 

He was not optimistic.

 

I m not saying this is happening in every city, it's not. But my route westward was, with the exception of New Mexico, pretty conservative so that was who I was exposed to and spoke with. My conversations probably added 2-3 days to my trip, but I gathered a lot of info and insight.

 

A side note: I tried to stay in a hotel I like, in Kerrville, Texas. Was told on the phone, no rooms available. I once stayed there for two months and know that manager, too. I stopped in. She said they actually had a hundred empty rooms. So, I asked why can't I have one? Two reasons: no housekeepers to work, and secondly, the state requires certain things done to the rooms before they can be used again and a large group of hunters had all left the same day (not an unusual event). She said the state's requirements are so damaging that they likely won't make it through spring. That hotel has been there for decades.

[HeijoshinCool]

9 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Those who don’t get vaccinated have a high probability of infection, which may make their objections moot.

.

Either you don't comprehend my post, or you are deflecting.....

 

It matters not a whit whether or not their "objections" are "moot" or valid.

 

What matters is the economy is going to crash due to various reasons, and not taking a job that is critical to the economy, for any reason, is going to contribute to that crash.

[Jeffr2]

7 minutes ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

Either you don't comprehend my post, or you are deflecting.....

 

It matters not a whit whether or not their "objections" are "moot" or valid.

 

What matters is the economy is going to crash due to various reasons, and not taking a job that is critical to the economy, for any reason, is going to contribute to that crash.

The economy will get better once the virus is subdued. To do that, we need more people to get vaccinations.  Get the jab, help the economy.  Simple.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4802686/

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/27/vaccine-inequality-could-cost-the-global-economy-trillions-report.html

[HeijoshinCool]

4 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

The economy will get better once the virus is subdued. To do that, we need more people to get vaccinations.  Get the jab, help the economy.  Simple.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4802686/

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/27/vaccine-inequality-could-cost-the-global-economy-trillions-report.html

.

 

Okay, and by what means of coercion do you suggest that these people are going to betray generations of religious beliefs? 

 

Not gonna happen any more than they would commit blasphemy.

 

I'm not taking sides, I am being realistic.

 

Disagree and condemn them all you want, but they believe what they believe and 99% of them are not going to waiver. They do not care what the CDC says. Or CNBC, or FOX.

 

With all due respect, that is the reality your above post ignores.

 

So what is your realistic, viable solution?

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

 

Okay, and by what means of coercion do you suggest that these people are going to betray generations of religious beliefs? 

 

Not gonna happen any more than they would commit blasphemy.

 

I'm not taking sides, I am being realistic.

 

Disagree and condemn them all you want, but they believe what they believe and 99% of them are not going to waiver. They do not care what the CDC says. Or CNBC, or FOX.

 

With all due respect, that is the reality your above post ignores.

 

So what is your realistic, viable solution?

Yeah, religion.  One of the worst things to happen to our world.  Luckily, almost all religious leaders support the vaccine.  Must be some really stupid people in this anti-vax religious group.

 

Education is the key.  Getting rid of misinformation is also critical.

 

Don't forget.  A majority of us, like you, have been vaccinated.  More and more are getting the jab every day.  Some never will.  But some are changing their minds.  Education.

[Danderman123]

57 minutes ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

 

Okay, and by what means of coercion do you suggest that these people are going to betray generations of religious beliefs? 

 

Not gonna happen any more than they would commit blasphemy.

 

I'm not taking sides, I am being realistic.

 

Disagree and condemn them all you want, but they believe what they believe and 99% of them are not going to waiver. They do not care what the CDC says. Or CNBC, or FOX.

 

With all due respect, that is the reality your above post ignores.

 

So what is your realistic, viable solution?

Darwin will take care of a lot of them.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

Either you don't comprehend my post, or you are deflecting.....

 

It matters not a whit whether or not their "objections" are "moot" or valid.

 

What matters is the economy is going to crash due to various reasons, and not taking a job that is critical to the economy, for any reason, is going to contribute to that crash.

I will bet money that the economy doesn’t crash. We might have a correction, but a recession is a ways off.