The future is electric: your questions about EVs answered

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, digger70 said:

the price  of electricity is going one way ,UP

The price of everything is going up ....  it's called inflation.

... oh wait, not the price of solar systems, drastically dropping every year.

 

Power from the sun .... I predict will stay fairly steady, until they figure out a way to tax that also.

 

 

[tingtongfarang]

34 minutes ago, stoutfella said:

How, with a diesel generator?

Some months ago i sold my house in greece which had been running on solar power alone since 15years complete with a 5kw inverter, the house ran as a normal house would connected to the grid.

[Orinoco]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Wholesale energy prices have risen significantly in Germany, with oil prices increasing by as much as 53 percent. Gas prices haven’t risen as steeply but still recorded an increase of 15 percent. Verivox calculated the weighted price increase of both energy sources (according to their use) to be 26 percent in one year. "The price rally in fossil fuels is fuelling inflation and driving household costs of living up," Storck said. 

https://www.iamexpat.de/expat-info/german-expat-news/cost-energy-germany-highest-level-2012

Oil prices are up 53% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL.

 

 

 

[Skallywag]

Anyone of you ICE drivers ever consider Climate change?  The atmosphere we breathe? Wake up people

 

Oil companies have paid thousands of lobbyists in the US since the late 80's and to the present to stay in power, refute climate change,  and not let electric companies install charging stations, 

 

Gas and diesel should be like a prescription, only given out to those who need it and limits on the amount every week..

Retirees and those who do not work can have necessities delivered. 

Fuel is a worse addiction than any drug IMO.  I see and watch people driving scooters and cars 2 or 3 blocks then spend 2 minutes at a 7-11 or picking up food and drive back.  Ridiculous behavior

 

Yes the infrastructure needs upgrading with charging stations, but conservation should be mandatory at this time.  Climate change created by the greenhouse gases produced by burning oil and diesel is going to be the ruin of civilization if we do not change our attitude and work for zero emissions very soon

 

Hope the G-20 summit makes progress but it seems people like Elon and other entrepreneurs could actually get more done than some governments

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-g20-russia-china-climate-change-commitments/

 

[Gold Star]

9 hours ago, relax33 said:

• Cumulative CO2 emissions globally by country 1750-2019 | Statista

The US has emitted 410 bil tons of Co2, China is at 219 bil tons  n have a long way to go to match up to the US
It probably will not end up emitting more than the US as it had already developed the world's first fusion plant (fusion is the opposite of nuclear n is supposed to be the holy grail of energy production) .. n has been the world's biggest global investor in renewable energy every year since 2015 

China has become a green energy superpower. These 5 charts show how | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

The other thing most politicians conveniently ignore is that they had used China as the factory of the world so that they can go clean n pass on all the carbon consumption to it ...
Most of the coal being burnt in China atm is to provide power for factories to churn out goods demanded by the world ...

Too bad it is what it is   ...

China is by far the largest emitter by a factor of 2 today over the next largest, the US, and refuses to stop building coal fired generators. Its adopted green initiatives do not even cover their increase in energy demand.

 

 

<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/270499/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries/" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/270499/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries.jpg" alt="Statistic: Carbon dioxide emissions in 2009 and 2019, by select country* (in million metric tons) | Statista" style="width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width:1000px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"/></a><br />Find more statistics at  <a href="https://www.statista.com" rel="nofollow">Statista</a>

 

Edited November 1, 2021 by Gold Star

[Orinoco]

2 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Anyone of you ICE drivers ever consider Climate change?  The atmosphere we breathe? Wake up people

Oil companies have paid thousands of lobbyists in the US since the late 80's and to the present to stay in power, refute climate change,  and not let electric companies install charging stations, 

How did you get to Thailand ?

Via , Eco Flying mushroom power . !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, farmerjo said:

The transmission lines,poles,transformers and sub stations in which the solar user is also connected to.

Well, th solar power provider pays a connection fee. And presumably the power company charges more for the electricity from the solar provider than they pay. Don't the fossil fuel companies who sell to them also benefit from the system?

[LarrySR]

The Texas freeze that shut down their grid last winter is a prime example of how the fossil fuel and US Republican lawmakers use propaganda to push back on the progress of renewable energy. They blamed frozen windmills for the blackout. 

 

Texas' energy system is designed to provide cheap electricity and big profits for investors. It is working exactly as designed.

Texas has more than 10,000 windmills producing energy. They deliver 10% of the state's supply, yet citizens were told the windmills froze and caused the calamity. Most of them continued to generate their 10% contribution despite many being frozen.

(There are wind farms above the Arctic Circle, and off Newfoundland and in frozen Russia. They work fine, but you have to pay for the winter package.)

Texas didn't do this, because....... it cuts into profits.

 

Texas energy companies are all about profit. A big portion of the energy in Texas comes from natural gas, oil & coal. 

You can generate all the electrical power you want, but it has to be moved somewhere on transmission lines. If you don't maintain and upgrade your transmission systems....say because you want to maximize profits to your shareholders.....systems erode and drop in efficiency. 

Texans, despite living in a fairly inhospitable place, are guaranteed 72 degrees year round by their cheap energy costs. Housing is designed to keep heat out, not in. When the cold hits, they just turned up their thermostats, jacking demand, overloading transmission systems, dropping pressure in pipelines.

Ooops!  Blackout.

In California when this happens, they go outside the local grid and buy power from surrounding systems as far away as Colorado or further. Price goes up by demand....your bill goes up.

 

Texas is cut off from the national grid to avoid federal oversight. Energy costs jacked from $22 per megawatt/hour to $9,000.....meaning a typical monthly Texas bill would be $26,000 the month of the Texas freeze. 

 

Meanwhile, Republican politicians across the board blamed the non-existent Green New Deal, AOC, and Biden. He'd been there three weeks!

Texas has been in Republican hands for 20 years!

 

The blissfully unaware viewers of right wing media were unaware the blackout was caused by the greedy energy executives & Republican lawmakers that fight regulations. They think it's the windmills. LOL

 

 

Edited November 1, 2021 by LarrySR

[Orinoco]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

The price of everything is going up ....  it's called inflation.

 

So true.

The only thing that comes down in Thailand on a regular basis are Drawers. !!!!!!!! 

I Love Thailand.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2021 by Orinoco

[placeholder]

22 minutes ago, Orinoco said:

Oil prices are up 53% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL.

 

 

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart

 

 

 

[farmerjo]

13 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, th solar power provider pays a connection fee. And presumably the power company charges more for the electricity from the solar provider than they pay. Don't the fossil fuel companies who sell to them also benefit from the system?

Yes but today if you buy an electric car you would be using your own household solar,not a provider to the grid,maybe in years to come then as said earlier the taxes will come.

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

Yes but today if you buy an electric car you would be using your own household solar,not a provider to the grid,maybe in years to come then as said earlier the taxes will come.

But that power doesn't depend on the grid.

[Orinoco]

20 minutes ago, placeholder said:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart

 

 

 

Ok you win.

Germany got it all right, with wind and solar energy

I stand corrected.

Good day.

[Gold Star]

This war on fossil fuels has made this otherwise poor retiree over 2 million dollars in my oil investments in the last 10 months, returning almost 300%, as the curtailment of supply has led to this energy crisis we now face. Energy prices will continue to rise further until it reaches it's highest point, where it starts to become unaffordable and causes reduced demand. Depletions, and exhaustion of OPEC+ spare capacity combined with low capital investment ensures we will see higher prices for the long term. It is now merely at an average price, based on adjusted inflation records over the last 30 years.

 

These lean companies are becoming cash flow producing monsters, returning vast amounts of cash to investors, paying down debt, and buying back shares. Most have plans for net zero emissions in the near future, with some presently being net negative emitters. However, they have been tossed in the trash in the haste of the predjudiced ESG movement that paints all in the group with the same brush. Some of these trade around at a mere 2 to 3 times free cash flow to enterprise value. Normally, it would be around 6 times, so there is a LOT of upside left.

 

A big thank you goes out to the vast amount of people that have been misled to believe we will suddenly wake up tomorrow morning all driving EVs in a green world and solve climate change.  Far before the trillions of dollars for infrastructure is even allocated to be invested, they have been burning our bridge to renewables by waging a war to restrict activity and capital investment in fossil fuels, specifically oil. This has led to a parabolic explosion in the value of existing oil production companies with reserves. It ignores the fact that oil will be needed for centuries to come in the form of fuel, plastics, lubrication, petrochemicals, fertilizers, medicines, etc. , not to mention to produce the materials needed for this 'energy transition'.  

 

This presents a once in a lifetime opportunity, as the world has been duped to beleive this is a 'renewable energy transition', but it is not. It is merely a 'renewable energy addition' as energy demands are ever increasing. For example, China, the largest emitter, is going full speed ahead with new coal plants, ignoring the problem. Watch what they do, not what they say.

 

As I write this, I see oil is up yet another $1.23 per barrel, bringing about another $200,000 in value to my investments. It is just beginning and is still not to late to get on board the oil train if you havn't already.

 

To those fighting fossil fuels, do not dispair, and please keep up your efforts. The damage you are causing to supply, regional economies, travel, and making people's lives more miserable and costly is making some people that can see the opportunities very comfortable and happy.

[Orinoco]

6 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

This war on fossil fuels has made this otherwise poor retiree over 2 million dollars in my oil investments in the last 10 months, e and happy.

And you still live in Thailand !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL

[placeholder]

59 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

This war on fossil fuels has made this otherwise poor retiree over 2 million dollars in my oil investments in the last 10 months, returning almost 300%, as the curtailment of supply has led to this energy crisis we now face. Energy prices will continue to rise further until it reaches it's highest point, where it starts to become unaffordable and causes reduced demand. Depletions, and exhaustion of OPEC+ spare capacity combined with low capital investment ensures we will see higher prices for the long term. It is now merely at an average price, based on adjusted inflation records over the last 30 years.

 

These lean companies are becoming cash flow producing monsters, returning vast amounts of cash to investors, paying down debt, and buying back shares. Most have plans for net zero emissions in the near future, with some presently being net negative emitters. However, they have been tossed in the trash in the haste of the predjudiced ESG movement that paints all in the group with the same brush. Some of these trade around at a mere 2 to 3 times free cash flow to enterprise value. Normally, it would be around 6 times, so there is a LOT of upside left.

 

A big thank you goes out to the vast amount of people that have been misled to believe we will suddenly wake up tomorrow morning all driving EVs in a green world and solve climate change.  Far before the trillions of dollars for infrastructure is even allocated to be invested, they have been burning our bridge to renewables by waging a war to restrict activity and capital investment in fossil fuels, specifically oil. This has led to a parabolic explosion in the value of existing oil production companies with reserves. It ignores the fact that oil will be needed for centuries to come in the form of fuel, plastics, lubrication, petrochemicals, fertilizers, medicines, etc. , not to mention to produce the materials needed for this 'energy transition'.  

 

This presents a once in a lifetime opportunity, as the world has been duped to beleive this is a 'renewable energy transition', but it is not. It is merely a 'renewable energy addition' as energy demands are ever increasing. For example, China, the largest emitter, is going full speed ahead with new coal plants, ignoring the problem. Watch what they do, not what they say.

 

As I write this, I see oil is up yet another $1.23 per barrel, bringing about another $200,000 in value to my investments. It is just beginning and is still not to late to get on board the oil train if you havn't already.

 

To those fighting fossil fuels, do not dispair, and please keep up your efforts. The damage you are causing to supply, regional economies, travel, and making people's lives more miserable and costly is making some people that can see the opportunities very comfortable and happy.

The price of oil is where it is because of a defacto cartel. As long as there is a certain minimum demand, they can raise or lower prices through production increases and cuts. It has nothing to do with curtailments in oil exploration and exploitation.

As for needing petroleum for non combustible uses, all the more reason to conserve it. Of course, work is being done on creating petroleum substitutes via bioengineering.

[farmerjo]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

But that power doesn't depend on the grid.

The capitol cost is not free..

[Maybole]

About 12 years ago, I had a long conversation with the maintenance manager of a bus company with a fleet of about 40 coaches and buses.

I pointed out that an electric motor was less than half as bulky as the equivalent diesel fueled engine, there was no need for a gearbox nor any of the accessories like fuel pump filter and the like. Also the potential fire hazard of a fuel tank could be eliminated. This would leave room for batteries, and, since most buses were high off the ground large batteries could be stored underneath. This would also lower the C of G and enhance stability.

I proposed that a supply of fully charged batteries could be kept on hydraulic trolleys in bays at strategic termini into which a buses low on power could draw. A trolley could then be slid under the bus pumped up, the discharged battery disconnected and removed and a fully charged battery (or batteries) be inserted in place. The whole operation could be carried out in less time than it took to fill the tank with diesel.  The discharged battery could be recharged at a leisurely pace and be ready for the next bus that needed it.

The manager, a man of my own age who had vast experience, having come up up through an apprenticeship, obtained City and Guilds certificates, HNC and finally HND and thus vastly knowledgeable. was horrified. It was impossible, he said "everybody knows that" but could not give any reason beyond that batteries are too expensive and too heavy.

End of argument.

[Gold Star]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The price of oil is where it is because of a defacto cartel. As long as there is a certain minimum demand, they can raise or lower prices through production increases and cuts. It has nothing to do with curtailments in oil exploration and exploitation.

As for needing petroleum for non combustible uses, all the more reason to conserve it. Of course, work is being done on creating petroleum substitutes via bioengineering.

Cartel action is what we are led to believe, but OPEC+ spare capacity is nearing it's limits as proven by some of its members even now not being able to meet their newly expanded monthly quotas. They all have overinflated their production baseline abilities to allow them the maximum production freedom. The cartel does have some influence by withholding production to keep prices up through events like this last pandemic, but they are only about 2 mmbpd awy from their maximum limit. it is in their best interest to keep prices high.

 

However I disgree about capital investment. The largest factor leading to higher prices starting now and moving forward is the lack of capital investment in oil E&P, which is now globally only around 65 to 70% of what is needed to replace the reserves we are consuming to maintain demand on the energy treadmill, let alone expand production to meet the increased needs.  The results of this lack of capital investment typically hits the fan about 5 years after initial investment, as it is the average time for most big projects to be developed and start flowing.  The timing of that is also unfortunately just when the substantial increased demand from the emerging world economies will also occur, and those are the ones that cannot afford a transition.

 

I do agree that it is a precious useful resource we have been gifted on this planet, much too valuable to burn for a fuel, that geologically takes millions of years to be created in the earth's crust, and not easily replaced.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

48 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

The capitol cost is not free..

You mean the cost of investing in a PV system for the home?

[Gold Star]

And the elephant in the room is....

 

[placeholder]

28 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

Cartel action is what we are led to believe, but OPEC+ spare capacity is nearing it's limits as proven by some of its members even now not being able to meet their newly expanded monthly quotas. They all have overinflated their production baseline abilities to allow them the maximum production freedom. The cartel does have some influence by withholding production to keep prices up through events like this last pandemic, but they are only about 2 mmbpd awy from their maximum limit. it is in their best interest to keep prices high.

 

However I disgree about capital investment. The largest factor leading to higher prices starting now and moving forward is the lack of capital investment in oil E&P, which is now globally only around 65 to 70% of what is needed to replace the reserves we are consuming to maintain demand on the energy treadmill, let alone expand production to meet the increased needs.  The results of this lack of capital investment typically hits the fan about 5 years after initial investment, as it is the average time for most big projects to be developed and start flowing.  The timing of that is also unfortunately just when the substantial increased demand from the emerging world economies will also occur, and those are the ones that cannot afford a transition.

 

I do agree that it is a precious useful resource we have been gifted on this planet, much too valuable to burn for a fuel, that geologically takes millions of years to be created in the earth's crust, and not easily replaced.

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the one hand, these oil companies are spewing fountains of cash but on the other they don't have enough to invest?

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

And the elephant in the room is....

 

Coal can't compete as a power source. Even when the cost was low it would being underpriced by renewables. And that's without reckoning the cost of the damage it causes that others pay for.

[Gold Star]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

On the one hand, these oil companies are spewing fountains of cash but on the other they don't have enough to invest?

Return of capital to shareholders is now the paramount objective over growth. An executive that now sets out to spend capital to grow production will be sacked. The billions lost by companies during the last shale boom in order to grow production has been a hard lesson for them to learn, and nobody will finance them now unless they demonstrate restraint and are obligated to perform in conservative ways to return the cash.  Significant changes in capital restraint have occured, proven by at the recent Q3 reports form Exxon, and even Saudi Aramco, among many others.  Investors demand the return of cash, and it is happening.

 

The US hyper shale boom is over.  They are faced with Increased costs: wages, and steel, service costs, inflation, and the demand for return of capital. Rig counts are at half levels, drilled but uncompleted well inventory (DUCs) are now down. Frac spreads are at half levels as before, and hardly moving.

 

[Gold Star]

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Coal can't compete as a power source. Even when the cost was low it would being underpriced by renewables. And that's without reckoning the cost of the damage it causes that others pay for.

No, coal costs about $40 per MWH, and wind $60 to $70 per MWH. Brown coal is even cheaper but dirtier. If you build a new plant today, the economics change, but for existing generation, this is true.

 

Coal is reliable, cheap, and can be burned 24 hours a day. It does not rely on the wind, or the sun. In normal market conditions, it is very competitive, and there is a great abundance of it. It is the dirtiest but cheapest fuel to use. EVs will be charged mostly at night, when the sun doesn't shine. The Chinese don't care, and will continue to spew coal emissions.

 

 

 

Even one of my Thai neighbors has gone back to cooking with charcoal as the price of gas and electricity got too high, and I now smell it every mealtime.

 

Anyway, the debate is endless. Unless you are the guy that ate an undercooked bat, one person can't change the world. I understand climate ramifications, but I'll continue to invest in what I see as a once in a lifetime opportunity in oil, whose early demise is clearly exaggerated and undervalued as most don't understand the big picture.

[KhunLA]

 

1 hour ago, Gold Star said:

And the elephant in the room is....

 

Possibly an apples & oranges comparison since China has 4 times the population of the USA.

Since probably more of the manufacturing of world done there, more energy needed.

 

Also consider total energy consumption, with China only use 60% more than the USA

for 4X the population and all that manufacturing being done.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263455/primary-energy-consumption-of-selected-countries/

 

 

Edited November 1, 2021 by KhunLA

[DavisH]

18 hours ago, Geoffggi said:

As KhaoYai has already pointed out the problem will be infrastructure, it is already a big problem in the UK as many rapid charging points were not working or there were an insufficient number of charging points, charging times are long (almost an hour to charge up in some cases) but critically the power generation will need to be greatly increased throughout Thailand & not just in Bangkok, otherwise the vehicle recovery trucks will be kept very busy. 

The vast majority will charge at home, daily, or quite often. It's appropriate for those that live in the city and use it for daily drives to work and back. 

[LarrySR]

4 minutes ago, DavisH said:

The vast majority will charge at home, daily, or quite often. It's appropriate for those that live in the city and use it for daily drives to work and back. 

In the future, all homes will have solar and battery packs that are networked to the grid and the grid can call on these packs for peak use.

[placeholder]

26 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

No, coal costs about $40 per MWH, and wind $60 to $70 per MWH. Brown coal is even cheaper but dirtier. If you build a new plant today, the economics change, but for existing generation, this is true.

 

Coal is reliable, cheap, and can be burned 24 hours a day. It does not rely on the wind, or the sun. In normal market conditions, it is very competitive, and there is a great abundance of it. It is the dirtiest but cheapest fuel to use. EVs will be charged mostly at night, when the sun doesn't shine. The Chinese don't care, and will continue to spew coal emissions.

 

 

 

Even one of my Thai neighbors has gone back to cooking with charcoal as the price of gas and electricity got too high, and I now smell it every mealtime.

 

Anyway, the debate is endless. Unless you are the guy that ate an undercooked bat, one person can't change the world. I understand climate ramifications, but I'll continue to invest in what I see as a once in a lifetime opportunity in oil, whose early demise is clearly exaggerated and undervalued as most don't understand the big picture.

Your figures are way out of date. For one thing, the cost of coal has zoome up.

The coal price has skyrocketed in 2021 – what does it mean for net zero?

https://theconversation.com/the-coal-price-has-skyrocketed-in-2021-what-does-it-mean-for-net-zero-166117

 

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

In fact, it's cheaper to replace an existing coal plant with a newly built solar plant. 

 

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

And of course this makes sense for 2 reasons. The cost of the "fuel" in wind and solar plants is 0.

ANd the cost of of generating solar and wind has dropped precipitously, especially solar.

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

 

And the very fact that the cost of fossil fuels has shot up this year kind of weakens the case for them as an economical way to generate electrical power.

 

[placeholder]

Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use over the next two decades.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea